Indicator of market U-turn

Stockmate · 1 Indicator of market U-turn Thu May 03, 2012 4:26 pm

Stockmate

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150 day moving average is a good indicator of market movements. But all the moving averages are lagging indicators. 150 day moving average moves downwards in a bear market then levels and Move upwards when the market is gaining upward momentum. But this indication is a lagging one. That is, when the 150 day MA shows the upward movement the market has already moved up considerably.
But this time it my be different as the market is showing dragging consolidation due to external factors( Unsound economics). So this time 150 MA will not be lagging much. So we can monitor the behaviour of 150 MA to detect the market U-turn this time as the lagging will be less.
Still the 150 MA is moving downwards. But the steepness is less. We can expect it to level next. But the rise may l be late.

Swing trading opportunities are likely again.

Last edited by Stockmate on Thu May 03, 2012 4:28 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : corrections)

hunter · 2 Re: Indicator of market U-turn Thu May 03, 2012 8:03 pm

hunter

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Stockmate,

Do you know of any acceptable 'ahead' (Opposite of lagging) indicators?
I like to give a try.

Stockmate · 3 Re: Indicator of market U-turn Fri May 04, 2012 8:05 am

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@ Hunter
The price movement is important but sometimes price is not a the ultimate leading indicator. In financial markets, everyone tries to be one step ahead of the competition and is constantly looking for an edge. Often, the only edge you need is to understand your own and your fellow investors biases and incentives.

There are various ways to gauge the health of the market and get prepared for its next move and take action before other.

1) breadth (number of stocks on the 52week high list, percentage of stocks above their 200dma…): The number gradually grows at the end of a bear market. So monitor the breadth daily and keep a record.

2)leading sectors: The leading sectors differ according to the stage of the stock marker cycle. (Transportation,technical , financial and consumer sectors moves during the late bear and early bull phase): No sector is moving now. It may mean that we are in a Bear to Bull transformation period. But it may drag on without a bull phase due to external factors.
So watch whether these sectors show a movement.
( This web page is good for reading: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3618.html
This is also fact full:
http://www.cherokeefilmfestival.com/Workshops.aspx

3) asset classes correlations (is money flowing away from the market to perceived safety of treasury bills and notes or and high-yield bonds): This is happening now.Money moving away from CSE due to high interest yield. The message is bull is not coming yet.
3) The price action in liquid, high-ticket stocks

But what are most of our forum members doing. ? They are looking for advice/ news etc. The news is hidden in the market .You have to decipher the hidden news before the others

[url=http://www.cherokeefilmfestival.com/Workshops.aspx]

Last edited by Stockmate on Fri May 04, 2012 8:23 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : added a link)

hunter · 4 Re: Indicator of market U-turn Fri May 04, 2012 8:20 am

hunter

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Stockmate,

Your approach to market analysis is absolutely awesome. There's lot to learn and that's the way to win in the long run.
Hope you will share more of your findings in future.

sriranga · 5 Re: Indicator of market U-turn Fri May 04, 2012 9:54 am

sriranga

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Stockmate wrote:@ Hunter
The price movement is important but sometimes price is not a the ultimate leading indicator. In financial markets, everyone tries to be one step ahead of the competition and is constantly looking for an edge. Often, the only edge you need is to understand your own and your fellow investors biases and incentives.

There are various ways to gauge the health of the market and get prepared for its next move and take action before other.

1) breadth (number of stocks on the 52week high list, percentage of stocks above their 200dma…): The number gradually grows at the end of a bear market. So monitor the breadth daily and keep a record.

2)leading sectors: The leading sectors differ according to the stage of the stock marker cycle. (Transportation,technical , financial and consumer sectors moves during the late bear and early bull phase): No sector is moving now. It may mean that we are in a Bear to Bull transformation period. But it may drag on without a bull phase due to external factors.
So watch whether these sectors show a movement.
( This web page is good for reading: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3618.html
This is also fact full:
http://www.cherokeefilmfestival.com/Workshops.aspx

3) asset classes correlations (is money flowing away from the market to perceived safety of treasury bills and notes or and high-yield bonds): This is happening now.Money moving away from CSE due to high interest yield. The message is bull is not coming yet.
3) The price action in liquid, high-ticket stocks

But what are most of our forum members doing. ? They are looking for advice/ news etc. The news is hidden in the market .You have to decipher the hidden news before the others

[url=http://www.cherokeefilmfestival.com/Workshops.aspx]

Thanks a lot for your valuable contributions.
Really appreciate your findings.
External forces to push or pull the market will be questionable in long term and not good also.
As a human beings, all of us are looking for short term relief.
Again expecting more from you.