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REEF 19 - Anyone collected ?

+12
stockboy
sapumal
TortoizePlus
Light of Hope
smallville
Whitebull
Quibit
WildBear
stumpy
market bull
Market Sucker
Chinwi
16 posters

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1 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:10 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Two Three years ago our practice was to identify future potentials and buying them while sharing our ideas with each other.
We were able to find many good shares at very low prices, unnoticed to the crowd engaged in chasing bullish and popular shares.

For Eg. AHOT @ 25, BFL @ 20/- , NTB W @ 9 ...etc. they never came back closer to their original levels even in this dull market.

Mr. 'Marketwatch' became famous, predicting about BFL at early stages, many people earned millions because of him. Somehow, he was not that popular at later stages because of the PC house drama.

Later on, by watching bull fights in CSE, we shifted to other-means to select shares to earn quickly neglecting basics. Most of the times we never read a financial report before investing, bought this and that at any price by following others.

I Feel this is the time to start again, study stocks in various ways to identify future gems and share our knowledge.

I write this to discuss about REEF W19 and to share views with anyone who is monitoring it.

REEF Warrant 19 has three more years to mature. It was kept around 15 before facing the current situation. Failure of W18 and price drop of N share put W19 to the lowest levels.

I was monitoring it carefully and during last few days and I felt some people collected it while keeping its price to the ground. Today, about 150,000 was collected in a bit aggressive way.

I think people who bought it between 2/- and 3/- did it with definite understanding.
Bad effect of W18 will fade away after few days time. For next 3 years W19 is the only one of its kind in the market. ( apart from GREG which I do not study).
W19 = N - 40

Any suggestions?

2 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:05 am

Market Sucker

Market Sucker
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

yes i did,i have a lot at avrg of 2.25Rs,still im holding Very Happy Very Happy

you know,our retailers are very afraid to buy a stcok Evil or Very Mad ,did you see how idiots they are to sell by filling my buy orders at 2rs when they see huge margin call sell order at 2.2 Evil or Very Mad




Last edited by Market Sucker on Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:06 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : delete the qty)

3 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 6:22 am

market bull

market bull
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Yes mate i also have managed to get a good profit from BF &PCH.One reason for that profit was market watch Very Happy
But I don't feel any long term investment with R0019.But this one also another high speculative warrant same way like other speculative shares.

Here is my small analysis.

REEF N is trading at 20.60
Current EPS:-(0.29)
Current Revenue 89.3M

People will have to pay Rs 40 for conversation at the end of warrant.(REEF.W0019 40.00 1‐Jun‐15)
if people buy now,they have to pay 40+3.5=43.50.

If original share comes to 50L,EPS should be at least 3 & profit should be around 300-350M
(Assumed p/e ratio 17)

(Current Number of shares:-78.7M,
31.4M is on the way(2012 warrants)=109.11M)

Current Group profit 2010 before tax:-20.4M
2011 :-(6.1)M

Proft should be increased by 1500% (compared to 2010 profit Laughing ) within 3 years to theoretically get a profit to warrant holders.















4 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:44 am

stumpy

stumpy
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Dear Chinwi,

Check your inbox! Few months back, I've sent you a PM about REEF.W19 ! Smile

5 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:56 am

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Have they started construction of Waskaduwa, what is happening to IPO money of Waskaduwa and Kalpitiya.Does it just provide working capital for DIVASA finance till 2015.what has happened to Pasikuda land deal.Will the management be able to show some credibility and accountability.These are few of questions comes to my mind before invest ib REEF W-19.. If any one know the progress if construction, please _Let us know.
How ever I feel we might get another couple of chances to buy this warrant in coming months .



Last edited by WildBear on Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:58 am; edited 1 time in total

6 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:57 am

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

WildBear wrote:Have they started construction of Waskaduwa, what is happening to IPO money of Waskaduwa and Kalpitiya.Does it just provide working capital for DIVASA finance till 2015.what has happened to Pasikuda land deal.Will the management be able to show some credibility and accountability.These are few of questions comes to my mind before invest ib REEF W-19.. If any one know the progress if construction, please _Let us know.
How ever I feel we might get another couple of chances to buy this warrant in coming months .

7 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:01 am

Quibit


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

What is a Warrant and how risky it is to invest in Share Warrants?
http://www.srilankaequity.com/2010/07/stock-market-manipulation-and-share.html

Warrants are securities issued by a company which give their owners the right to purchase shares in the company at a specific price at a future date.

The warrants are tradable in their own right, and their value will go up and down as the price of the shares to which they relate goes up and down. e.g Goodco issues new shares at Rs 50 each. At the same time it gives shareholders warrants entitling them to buy shares at Rs 100 at any time until 1st January 2015.

Warrants have no right to dividends and no voting rights, so their value is tied entirely to the relationship between their exercise price and the share price of the company. If the share price is below the exercise price, the warrants are said to be 'out of the money' and they are worthless. If the share price rises above the exercise price, they are 'in the money' and worth something. e.g.Goodco's share price rises to Rs 150. The intrinsic value of the warrants is now Rs 50 (Rs 150 less Rs 100)

Note that one of the features of warrants is 'gearing'. This means that a small rise in the price of the share price results in a large rise in the value of the warrants, and a fall in the share price has an equally dramatic downward effect on the value of the warrant. e.g.Goodco's share price rises 33 per cent from Rs 150 to Rs 200. The intrinsic value of the warrant rises from Rs 50 to Rs 100 (a 100 per cent rise).

Note that the owner of a warrant does not have to buy the shares. He has a right, not an obligation. Note too that the value of a warrant can quite easily drop to zero (if the exercise price is higher than the share price) and that it will definitely be zero once the time for exercise has passed. So warrants are risky!

Section 5.10 of the Listing Rules issued by the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) provides the procedure and approval process in respect of applications for the listing of warrants with right of conversion to shares.

8 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:42 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

stumpy wrote:Dear Chinwi,

Check your inbox! Few months back, I've sent you a PM about REEF.W19 ! Smile

Yes, I saw it recently when I connected after a gap. I did not reply as it was too late.

I Think now I know how you think and how you act. I know very well some shares are in your radar and W19 is one of them.

Actually I posted about W19 again as a matter of record and also to show others who think like us that they are not alone. :-)

9 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:49 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Market Sucker wrote:yes i did,i have a lot at avrg of 2.25Rs,still im holding Very Happy Very Happy

you know,our retailers are very afraid to buy a stcok Evil or Very Mad ,did you see how idiots they are to sell by filling my buy orders at 2rs when they see huge margin call sell order at 2.2 Evil or Very Mad



OMG ! You are really a market sucker.

Already got over 80% return.!

10 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:51 am

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:Actually I posted about W19 again as a matter of record and also to show others who think like us that they are not alone.

If lot of people think in that way then it may not be a very good sign.(contrary opinion)

11 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:20 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Whitebull wrote:
Chinwi wrote:Actually I posted about W19 again as a matter of record and also to show others who think like us that they are not alone.

If lot of people think in that way then it may not be a very good sign.(contrary opinion)

Actually I am not trying to prove anything. I do not think lot of people think like that at the moment because they were successful to kept it low while collecting it.
It MAY give over 100% return in short period of time for them if the overall market momentum kept at this level. Compared to other shares, this is a big return in this market.

This may go wrong.
---
In the long run,
it can become both ! Best or worst. It may give you 10 times of what you put OR nothing + loosing your initial investment.
At the moment, I do not want to show how this may give you 1000% return, cos I am not 'Marketwatch' Very Happy

12 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:29 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

GMNet wrote:
... .... ... Note that one of the features of warrants is 'gearing'. This means that a small rise in the price of the share price results in a large rise in the value of the warrants, and a fall in the share price has an equally dramatic downward effect on the value of the warrant. e.g.Goodco's share price rises 33 per cent from Rs 150 to Rs 200. The intrinsic value of the warrant rises from Rs 50 to Rs 100 (a 100 per cent rise)... .... ....

Wink

13 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:33 am

stumpy

stumpy
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Chinwi wrote:
stumpy wrote:Dear Chinwi,

Check your inbox! Few months back, I've sent you a PM about REEF.W19 ! Smile

Yes, I saw it recently when I connected after a gap. I did not reply as it was too late.

I Think now I know how you think and how you act. I know very well some shares are in your radar and W19 is one of them.

Actually I posted about W19 again as a matter of record and also to show others who think like us that they are not alone. :-)


No worries my dear friend!
We're not alone! Smile
Continuous market downtrend is keeping us silent & most of the sophisticated investors are accumulating strategic counters very slowly!

14 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:38 am

market bull

market bull
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

REEF W 18 is trading at 0.10 near to 0

[quote="GMNet"]
[b]Note that the owner of a warrant does not have to buy the shares. He has a right, not an obligation. Note too that the value of a warrant can quite easily drop to zero (if the exercise price is higher than the share price) and that it will definitely be zero once the time for exercise has passed. So warrants are risky!


15 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 1:56 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Advantage of REEF.W19 is its due to get listed in 2015.. With all the new Waskaduwa & Kalpitiya hotel projects come into the scene in 2015, REEF can position it self as an emerging hotel sector giant with abt 160K room nights..

Frankly there's no magic that management can do in short term so the EPS predictions are gonna be just imaginations. I dont beleive in massive EPS boosts since the hotel is on loss makin side as of now.

The buzz word for porfits is tourits now adays, the plus side is they can have their revenues up with the rising tourists’ arrivals after 2015.
Therefore, with the exercise price of 40, if u buy at the current price its gonna cost u 40+3.70=43.70 in 2015 when its converted.

Also hotel occupancy is gonna be an issue in off season and they should concentrate on hostig conferences, parties, etc.. to increase revenue..

Will REEF not pass at least 90 by 2015???

My thinking may be biased, but its food for thought.. The ppl who vested their interest in warrants might know the wonder as Chinwi indicated.

Mind you, there’s another side of this story too…
REEF W19 will have no effect if REEF N is kept below 40 for the coming 3 years. Then the warrant conversion is gonna be a fiasco (like W18 now) and keeping W19 could be a waste of time..
In this the particular interest in some HNWIs could be seen as another plus point as it could be subject to speculation. Then we can see an upmove of the W19 too..

16 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:57 pm

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18872-reef-directors-killing-retailers#122381

Some are desperate with REEF but they need to be careful.

17 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:32 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Whitebull wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18872-reef-directors-killing-retailers#122381

Some are desperate with REEF but they need to be careful.

Well this is the thing with some of the companies these days.. Directors play all the time here n there..

One should make a calculated risk having interest in these kinda counters as Chinwi pointed out on another REEF thread.. U never know Wink



Last edited by smallville on Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

18 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:28 pm

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Lucky me, I bought 5000 at 2.1 and 2.2, I guess 5000 is not enough

19 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:53 pm

TortoizePlus

TortoizePlus
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Does anyone who has gone through their prospects and annual reports can answer to below questions?

The estimated time frame for completing proposed hotel complexes?

What are their alternatives for finding rest of the working capital when the construction budget and interest rates for borrowing are increased and warrants are in danger for not subscribing?

What is the estimated payback period and when those proposed hotels are estimated to show profits?

20 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:29 pm

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Warrants will be subscribed by major warrant holders including දිලිත , Thoradeniya.

21 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:06 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

TortoizePlus wrote:Does anyone who has gone through their prospects and annual reports can answer to below questions?

The estimated time frame for completing proposed hotel complexes?

What are their alternatives for finding rest of the working capital when the construction budget and interest rates for borrowing are increased and warrants are in danger for not subscribing?

What is the estimated payback period and when those proposed hotels are estimated to show profits?

I'm just answering as per my memory serves.

Hotels to be completed and put in to opertation by 2015.

As you pointed out, the W18 may not see a big participation hence the income from that could be less but they've not mentioned anything as to how that coulbe be compensated from.

I have 2 be honest;
There are no big fundamental reasons to invest in REEF.W19, only the time can justify its price hence I ask new comers to stay away from these shares since it can turn either way.
We've only given here guessable outcomes from the past experience of holding Warrants. So one can argue contrary that since the hotel is under a loss situation why we should be going after it Wink Well as I said its the past experience. Nobody can tell what will happen in future when even directors do stupid things.
laid out facts has a reasoning for the mentioned individuals to follow this share hence dont think this is a promotion.. Better safe than sorry.. So dont follow them..

22 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Thu Jun 14, 2012 5:55 pm

Whitebull


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

GMNet wrote:I wonder whether what characteristic this thread got, to be not considered as a promotion. I just looked at the Prison and I see lot of innocent fellows are there in Prisons whilst some of the big criminal are still at large. Its upto the moderators to make sure this forum is not another infamous investornow website with patrons of the calibre of Marketwatch and it's followers!

I think it is like human right protection campaigns.When big fellows seriously violate human rights.....no sanctions or anything but if there is some sort of controversial matter in a small country then there will be thousands and one accusations and sanctions.

23 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:14 pm

market bull

market bull
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics


I also having the same feeling. Moderators should not give any chance to promoters to steal innocent investors money.(Not only REEF Thread).

GMNet wrote:I wonder whether what characteristic this thread got, to be not considered as a promotion. I just looked at the Prison and I see lot of innocent fellows are there in Prisons whilst some of the big criminal are still at large. Its upto the moderators to make sure this forum is not another infamous investornow website with patrons of the calibre of Marketwatch and it's followers!

24 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:08 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

GMNet wrote:I wonder whether what characteristic this thread got, to be not considered as a promotion. I just looked at the Prison and I see lot of innocent fellows are there in Prisons whilst some of the big criminal are still at large. Its upto the moderators to make sure this forum is not another infamous investornow website with patrons of the calibre of Marketwatch and it's followers!

In the past there were threads posted by pattern analysers and no fundamental reason was given. Then we argued hard that those threads cannot be taken into account for investments.
However the shares discussed have risen after the collection. It was evident that some members had the talent to notice collections and informed us Wink

What we have done was then we added the fundamental reasoning for the share's worth for every one to see.. some were fundamentally strong while others become speculatives..

However much appreciate if you could lay down the characteristics of a promotional thread for our guidence.. So we can follow that..

25 REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Empty Re: REEF 19 - Anyone collected ? Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:53 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

GMNet wrote:
smallville wrote:
However much appreciate if you could lay down the characteristics of a promotional thread for our guidence.. So we can follow that..

I am sorry, I only compared this article with some of the other promotions. I felt something fishy about this post. Appreciate ÿour post cautioning us about risk involved in investing in warrants. Let's all work together to list down a criteria. I am not a stock market specialist and my knowledge of stock market can be written on the back of a one rupee stamp. But I would be more than willing to share my limited knowledge and help this forum.

Good suggestion to start with..

In the past when veteran investors, senior knowledgeable members of the forum started warning us of a market downturn, they argued much hard to educate the ignorant..

What was the outcome?

Many of us hammered them left and right and ultimately they got fed-up educating us.. They left..
Now if we open up our eyes and ears and recall their words, we can see who is right and wrong Wink But for us to obtain more information they're not here anymore.. There were members who are experienced, technically well versed and all pointed the bear market signals within a tiny period of time when market started goin down..

Now if we compared a post from a well experience person with proven records of being a smart investor with the day traders and individual glory makers of the forum who want to sell their stuff bought at high to the members here, I dont know where we stand actually?
We all kow MW cuz he promoted BFL, later on he got his reputation fade away with PCH saga.. Also we know Chinwi from those days, have been very rational on his investments and provided us much facts that we never knew, even today he does the same. Dont misunderstand that I'm white washing Chinwi, what I'm highlighting is we know the histories of ppl here and we should be wise enuf to figure out who is who before we point fingers at them.

It was clear that Chinwi only pointed out the possible outcomes since the fundamentals are not strong as of now.. This can bring someone a fortune or make him a pauper so the alternatives have also been laid out here..

Therefore; I feel the decision is of the reader if they wanna get in at the right time after considering whether he wants to hold this for years or dispose with a profit... Its absolutely one's investment strategy..

In here, it was only an insight to the facts that we've discussed in few REEF threads earlier.. One scan always refer to the past post for their investment decisions...

On the other hand, not only there were opportunities with this, SEMB.X, BLUE.X, PCH, CSD were also at least 10-20% plays if u carefully trade.. Twisted Evil
I'm emphasizing - carefully

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