ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average

Quibit · 1 ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 10:54 am

Quibit

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See the forum banner above. It shows the 200day simple Moving Average Vs ASI. Current ASI seems following the same pattern of 2009 just before it went above the 200 Day Moving Average.

Have look at the Chart below, which gives further more information based on Fibonacci retracement compared with the previous occasion. Accordingly ASI bounced back and reversed its trend previously at 61.8% point Fibonacci Level. Currently ASI its around 50% Fibonacci. If ASI follows the same trend as previously, its may hit the resistance around 5300 level and fall back to 61.8% Fibonacci level before recovery. 61.8% Fibonacci incidentially is around 3800.

Please feel free to Discuss!

ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Fib10

Last edited by GMNet on Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:07 am; edited 1 time in total

Slstock · 2 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:07 am

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problem is some of these indicators are lagging. Might be too late if follow blindly without other factors.

IF ASI fall to 3800 bloodshed will be word. if it fall to war time amounts 2500 it will be murder.

Will nobody do nothing for it to fall that low. Does CSE deserve it? Are our overall companies that bad?

Quibit · 3 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:24 am

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If we followed the 200 Day Moving Average previously, I guess many would have all sold out from the market around April 2011 when ASI crossed MA downward. In April there 2011 there were no reasons to sell out of the market, but subsequently many reasons like, Oil Prices, Devaluation, Interest Rates and UN intervention followed.

Still we have one big fear factor haunting us. It is about the debt crisis in Europe and potential pullout of Greece from Euro. World is anxiously watching the outcome of the elections this weekend and getting ready for the ultimate. If such event take place I believe, ASI also likely to suffer, may not be unto 3800!!

My analysis is that we should not get over existed about the current upward trend and still there a long gap to bridge between ASI and MA.

Last edited by GMNet on Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total

Antonym · 4 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:28 am

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It is common belief that many stocks on the ASI are undervalued. ('Undervalued' means trading at a price significantly below what is assumed to be its intrinsic value.)

Therefore, I am taking decisions on the assumption that 50% Fibonacci was the bottom... If I am right, the ASI will not fall significantly below 4900; if I am wrong, we will get an attractive buying opportunity..!

K.Haputantri · 5 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:49 am

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slstock wrote:
problem is some of these indicators are lagging. Might be too late if follow blindly without other factors.

IF ASI fall to 3800 bloodshed will be word. if it fall to war time amounts 2500 it will be murder.

Will nobody do nothing for it to fall that low. Does CSE deserve it? Are our overall companies that bad?

I don't see anything so bad with the fundamendals of companies per se except for a few hiccups owing to belated structural adjustments such as floating the rupee. What concerns me is the bad politically motivated policy level actions (at times contrary to the declared policy) locally and the chaotic world economic outlook especially in Europe and S&P downgrading of India citing two competing groups within the Congress. If short term political benifits govern the world economies the recovery will be hard to come by.

Last edited by K.Haputantri on Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

sapumal · 6 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 12:04 pm

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200 day ? Almost one year period (20*12 - working days , months) . Too long i guess. Lot of things can be happened during 1 year. Policies making year to year. My Guess is 80-120 is a good measurement.

Whitebull · 7 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:18 pm

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sapumal wrote:200 day ? Almost one year period (20*12 - working days , months) . Too long i guess. Lot of things can be happened during 1 year. Policies making year to year. My Guess is 80-120 is a good measurement.

Better to use 150days.And if possible TEMA...it significantly reduces the lagging.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18385-how-to-identify-a-stock-market-bottom

Whitebull · 8 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:26 pm

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slstock wrote:Are our overall companies that bad?

Share market is mainly driven by human psychology with manipulation.Company performances are the base but it is mainly driven by those factor.

Quibit · 9 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:29 pm

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Whitebull wrote:

sapumal wrote:200 day ? Almost one year period (20*12 - working days , months) . Too long i guess. Lot of things can be happened during 1 year. Policies making year to year. My Guess is 80-120 is a good measurement.

Better to use 150days.And if possible TEMA...it significantly reduces the lagging.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18385-how-to-identify-a-stock-market-bottom

The moving average indicator is one of the most popular technical analysis tools by traders and investors. Since moving averages smooth a data series, they are very useful to identify trends in markets, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and currencies. Investors use moving averages by themselves as well and in combination with other indicators such as the MACD and the Slow Stochastic. The 50-day and the 200-day moving averages are the most widely used moving average indicators, as they point to the trend of the underlying security.

http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/Articles/Technical_Analysis/moving_average_indicator.htm

Chanuque · 10 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:40 pm

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I am sharing somewhat the same point of view as @slstock. We are talking about an identified frontier market that stands itself and runs independently in spite of global factors. Secondly, if you go ONLY with technical data to trade at CSE, you will always miss the train. Systematic man made errors has had brought down the market down to an unthinkable level. ( That means many Bears out there to create the panic and fear ). Obviously, CSE will settle somewhere around 5500 level and consolidate before heading beyond that level ..

K.Haputantri · 11 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 4:43 pm

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Thanks GMNet for posting a valuable subject for discussion.

As fa as I know, DirectFN TWS does not suppoet long term moving average chart formation. It only gives 5-20 day two moving averages for short term predictions.

?Any one who knows as to how 200 day moving averages could be drawn with DirectFN TWS.

Whitebull · 12 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:08 pm

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K.Haputantri wrote:Thanks GMNet for posting a valuable subject for discussion.

As fa as I know, DirectFN TWS does not suppoet long term moving average chart formation. It only gives 5-20 day two moving averages for short term predictions.

?Any one who knows as to how 200 day moving averages could be drawn with DirectFN TWS.

When you select moving average there is a pop up window just change time period to ur desired number of dates.You see the link on my previous post.You would see 150days EMA and TEMA.

K.Haputantri · 13 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:54 pm

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Thanks Whitebull for help. I will try.

Last edited by K.Haputantri on Sat Jun 16, 2012 6:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

K.Haputantri · 14 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 6:21 pm

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Whitebull wrote:

K.Haputantri wrote:Thanks GMNet for posting a valuable subject for discussion.

As fa as I know, DirectFN TWS does not suppoet long term moving average chart formation. It only gives 5-20 day two moving averages for short term predictions.

?Any one who knows as to how 200 day moving averages could be drawn with DirectFN TWS.

When you select moving average there is a pop up window just change time period to ur desired number of dates.You see the link on my previous post.You would see 150days EMA and TEMA.

The popup window has no butten for number of days. It provides for line thickness & color only. However, there must be a way out. Must check with my broker.

Whitebull · 15 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 6:45 pm

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The pop up window carries two sub-headings...General and Parameters.

General gives those colours and etc.

Parameters give Time period and The method.You can change that time period.If you do not have that facility Yes You better ask ur broker.

Slstock · 16 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 8:37 pm

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Whitebull wrote:

slstock wrote:Are our overall companies that bad?

Share market is mainly driven by human psychology with manipulation.Company performances are the base but it is mainly driven by those factor.

The above comment I made should be taken with the rest of the statements.

slstock wrote:
problem is some of these indicators are lagging. Might be too late if follow blindly without other factors.
IF ASI fall to 3800 bloodshed will be word. if it fall to war time amounts 2500 it will be murder.
Will nobody do nothing for it to fall that low. Does CSE deserve it? Are our overall companies that bad?

K.Haputantri · 17 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 9:18 am

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Thanks Whitebull for the clarification.

opfdo · 18 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 10:57 am

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Antonym wrote:It is common belief that many stocks on the ASI are undervalued. ('Undervalued' means trading at a price significantly below what is assumed to be its intrinsic value.)

Therefore, I am taking decisions on the assumption that 50% Fibonacci was the bottom... If I am right, the ASI will not fall significantly below 4900; if I am wrong, we will get an attractive buying opportunity..!

this is very logical. Agreed

Redbulls · 19 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:14 pm

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osmand wrote:

Antonym wrote:It is common belief that many stocks on the ASI are undervalued. ('Undervalued' means trading at a price significantly below what is assumed to be its intrinsic value.)

Therefore, I am taking decisions on the assumption that 50% Fibonacci was the bottom... If I am right, the ASI will not fall significantly below 4900; if I am wrong, we will get an attractive buying opportunity..!

this is very logical. Agreed

Agreed.

Backstage · 20 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 2:39 pm

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[quote="Chanuque"]I am sharing somewhat the same point of view as @slstock. We are talking about an identified frontier market that stands itself and runs independently in spite of global factors.

The recent Bloomberg comparison of India ,Indonesia, Pakistan and SL indices for the last 10 years that was posted on another thread sheds some doubt on this view point that I too share. I was shocked to see the similarities, even the Bangla index looks similar. I find that strange given the peculiarities and extraordinary circumstances of Sri Lanka's immediate past.

sapumal · 21 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:55 am

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Thanks Quibit. Last time your suggestion was spot on ( when fell bellow 100 ). Greek election results are good for investors. Lets see what is going to happen.
My worry is still we don't have stability in policies. One decision (like allowing oil payments through forex) can make big difference.

K.Haputantri · 22 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Tue Jun 19, 2012 3:27 pm

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Whitebull wrote:

K.Haputantri wrote:Thanks GMNet for posting a valuable subject for discussion.

As fa as I know, DirectFN TWS does not suppoet long term moving average chart formation. It only gives 5-20 day two moving averages for short term predictions.

?Any one who knows as to how 200 day moving averages could be drawn with DirectFN TWS.

When you select moving average there is a pop up window just change time period to ur desired number of dates.You see the link on my previous post.You would see 150days EMA and TEMA.

Whitebull. As I had problems with the parameter butten I consulted my broker. Here is the reply for use by any other who have the same problem.

"Dear Sir,

Regarding the moving average prices issue.

You will find the detailed instructions to get the moving average for 200 days below;

1. You will need to view you graph for 200 days first.

Right click on a graph -> mode -> history

Right click on that graph -> period -> other -> relative period -> set it to 200 days.

2. Moving average setting.

Right click on the graph -> indicators -> averages -> Moving averages."

It worked! Thanks to my broker and all who helped.

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ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average

1 ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 10:54 am

Quibit

2 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:07 am

Slstock

3 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:24 am

Quibit

4 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:28 am

Antonym

5 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:49 am

K.Haputantri

6 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 12:04 pm

sapumal

7 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:18 pm

Whitebull

8 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:26 pm

Whitebull

9 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:29 pm

Quibit

10 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:40 pm

Chanuque

11 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 4:43 pm

K.Haputantri

12 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:08 pm

Whitebull

13 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:54 pm

K.Haputantri

14 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 6:21 pm

K.Haputantri

15 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 6:45 pm

Whitebull

16 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sat Jun 16, 2012 8:37 pm

Slstock

17 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 9:18 am

K.Haputantri

18 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 10:57 am

opfdo

19 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:14 pm

Redbulls

20 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Sun Jun 17, 2012 2:39 pm

Backstage

21 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Mon Jun 18, 2012 11:55 am

sapumal

22 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average Tue Jun 19, 2012 3:27 pm

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23 Re: ASI Vs 200 Day Moving Average

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