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July 20, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's next stock rally could be driven by the discovery of a commercially viable deposit of oil, which will renew interest in the country, an analyst who correctly called the end of the last stock bubble has said.
Amal Sanderatne, head of Frontier Research, a consultancy said the last stock bubble which sent Sri Lanka's benchmark index careening over 7,000 points was driven by post-war hopes.
Foreign capital also flowed into government securities markets, driving up liquidity and keeping interest rates low. Following the balance of payments crisis interest rates were high and stocks were falling.
The market has so far fallen to around 4,800 point levels. After the 2001 balance of payments crisis the advent of a ceasefire also sent the market up.
Game Changer
The 'game changer' to driven the next rally, Sanderatne says, could be a confirmation of the existence of a commercially viable oil deposit. Exploratory wells sunk by Cairn India have found traces of hydrocarbons in off Sri Lanka's northeastern coast.
"Oil can impact an economy in the long run in many ways," Sanderatne told a business forum in Colombo organized by Acuity, an investment bank and DailyFT, a financial newspaper.
"There is a concept in economics called resources curse. If you do not manage it properly the economy gets messed up."
Typically when oil is discovered in a country run by an autocratic ruler with weak institutions and rule of law, his grip tightens, and extends. Aggressively nationalist countries will even go to war with their neighbors more easily backed by oil. Either way citizens suffer longer.
Oil exporting countries like Venezuela for example, has near 30-percent inflation and currency depreciation. But oil revenues make it easy to give subsidies to voters even as they impoverished and their freedoms are stolen.
Iran has also had 30 percent inflation.
"But I am talking about markets," Sanderatne said. "Markets do not necessary try to look at the long term. Markets love big news. Investors love it."
Sanderatne recalled a time in February 2001 when he was working for what was then known as Jardine Fleming HNB Stockbrokers, a predecessor to Acuity Stockbrokers, he wrote a report called 'Lion in Winter', when times were at their blackest.
The report placed a 20 percent chance for peace, at a time when Colombo airport was bombed and there were military setbacks against Tamil Tiger rebels but said 'don't bet against peace'. A ceasefire and a bull run followed later.
He estimates that there is a 40 percent chance of a commercially viable deposit of oil being discovered.
"Don’t bet against oil," he said.
In 2000 the value of all the listed stocks was 80 billion rupees. Even with a recent correction the market stocks are now worth 1,800 billion rupees.
Psychological Cycle
Sanderatne says it is difficult to exactly to time a bull run. But equity markets go through cycles of emotion.
Optimism, excitement and thrill are found on the upturn. A market peaks in a 'euphoria' phase when everyone is upbeat.
"Behavioral psychology tends to overpower how you think," says Sanderatne. "Two years ago there was huge euphoria in the market, everyone borrowing money: a clear sign to get out."
At the time, when Sri Lanka stocks were the best performing in the world, Sanderante told an LBR-LBO CEO forum that valuations were 'stretched' Sri Lanka stocks beat the world amid bubble fears.
"In my opinion the market is overheated," Sanderatne saidat the time. "The valuations are the highest in Asia. Forward multiples are 19 times earnings; far higher that we have ever been, except perhaps in 1993."
Foreign investors were actively selling out, with valuations in other Asian nations, were lower.
euphoria' market psychology then goes through a period of 'anxiety' then 'denial', 'fear', 'desperation', 'panic' and finally 'capitulation' as everyone accepts that it is falling and turnover levels have collapsed.
Then there is 'despondency' and 'depression'.
"Now where do you think we are today? Despondency? Depression?," he asks. "You need to keep an eye where you are and of course if these are the emotions you see around you on other market players it gives a good idea where the market cycle is right now."
Valuations are now better. Price Foreign investors who sold out during the bubble are now back. The market price to earnings multiple has also halved to around 10 now.
"I am very bullish. Market sentiment is so depressed, anyway from a sentiment analysis it is a great time to get into the market. Also you have the traditional arguments based on valuations."
"You can make it very complicated. But in some ways it is simply buying when it is down and selling when it is up."
It is also difficult to predict the exact bottom. Stocks had fallen 10 percent over seven months after the 'Lion in winter' report, before picking up.
http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1035192591
Amal Sanderatne, head of Frontier Research, a consultancy said the last stock bubble which sent Sri Lanka's benchmark index careening over 7,000 points was driven by post-war hopes.
Foreign capital also flowed into government securities markets, driving up liquidity and keeping interest rates low. Following the balance of payments crisis interest rates were high and stocks were falling.
The market has so far fallen to around 4,800 point levels. After the 2001 balance of payments crisis the advent of a ceasefire also sent the market up.
Game Changer
The 'game changer' to driven the next rally, Sanderatne says, could be a confirmation of the existence of a commercially viable oil deposit. Exploratory wells sunk by Cairn India have found traces of hydrocarbons in off Sri Lanka's northeastern coast.
"Oil can impact an economy in the long run in many ways," Sanderatne told a business forum in Colombo organized by Acuity, an investment bank and DailyFT, a financial newspaper.
"There is a concept in economics called resources curse. If you do not manage it properly the economy gets messed up."
Typically when oil is discovered in a country run by an autocratic ruler with weak institutions and rule of law, his grip tightens, and extends. Aggressively nationalist countries will even go to war with their neighbors more easily backed by oil. Either way citizens suffer longer.
Oil exporting countries like Venezuela for example, has near 30-percent inflation and currency depreciation. But oil revenues make it easy to give subsidies to voters even as they impoverished and their freedoms are stolen.
Iran has also had 30 percent inflation.
"But I am talking about markets," Sanderatne said. "Markets do not necessary try to look at the long term. Markets love big news. Investors love it."
Sanderatne recalled a time in February 2001 when he was working for what was then known as Jardine Fleming HNB Stockbrokers, a predecessor to Acuity Stockbrokers, he wrote a report called 'Lion in Winter', when times were at their blackest.
The report placed a 20 percent chance for peace, at a time when Colombo airport was bombed and there were military setbacks against Tamil Tiger rebels but said 'don't bet against peace'. A ceasefire and a bull run followed later.
He estimates that there is a 40 percent chance of a commercially viable deposit of oil being discovered.
"Don’t bet against oil," he said.
In 2000 the value of all the listed stocks was 80 billion rupees. Even with a recent correction the market stocks are now worth 1,800 billion rupees.
Psychological Cycle
Sanderatne says it is difficult to exactly to time a bull run. But equity markets go through cycles of emotion.
Optimism, excitement and thrill are found on the upturn. A market peaks in a 'euphoria' phase when everyone is upbeat.
"Behavioral psychology tends to overpower how you think," says Sanderatne. "Two years ago there was huge euphoria in the market, everyone borrowing money: a clear sign to get out."
At the time, when Sri Lanka stocks were the best performing in the world, Sanderante told an LBR-LBO CEO forum that valuations were 'stretched' Sri Lanka stocks beat the world amid bubble fears.
"In my opinion the market is overheated," Sanderatne saidat the time. "The valuations are the highest in Asia. Forward multiples are 19 times earnings; far higher that we have ever been, except perhaps in 1993."
Foreign investors were actively selling out, with valuations in other Asian nations, were lower.
euphoria' market psychology then goes through a period of 'anxiety' then 'denial', 'fear', 'desperation', 'panic' and finally 'capitulation' as everyone accepts that it is falling and turnover levels have collapsed.
Then there is 'despondency' and 'depression'.
"Now where do you think we are today? Despondency? Depression?," he asks. "You need to keep an eye where you are and of course if these are the emotions you see around you on other market players it gives a good idea where the market cycle is right now."
Valuations are now better. Price Foreign investors who sold out during the bubble are now back. The market price to earnings multiple has also halved to around 10 now.
"I am very bullish. Market sentiment is so depressed, anyway from a sentiment analysis it is a great time to get into the market. Also you have the traditional arguments based on valuations."
"You can make it very complicated. But in some ways it is simply buying when it is down and selling when it is up."
It is also difficult to predict the exact bottom. Stocks had fallen 10 percent over seven months after the 'Lion in winter' report, before picking up.
http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1035192591
