Lion Leads Frontier - Why invest in Sri Lanka?

A must read for all Investors. Hope this will lead to a good discussion on the forum.

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t450-lion-leads-frontier#515

They run down reserves, push interest rates up and inflation,
Create or promote dodgy investors in the CSE,
Expropriate at will,
Rupee/Dollar in no mans land,
Borrow to survive,
Make Ad Hoc Policy decisions,
Isolate themselves from the powers of the world,
Projects yet to show concrete results like the Port down south and Coal Plant breaking down always,
Etc Etc..

The picture for the future Sri Lankan economy looks rosy but those in charge of the economy are looking elsewhere or doing what they please!

Now they hold multiple meetings and want to introduce a formula to prop up the market and credit extended to Fundamental companies. Can someone define the term FUNDAMENTAL COMAPNIES at the CSE please??? Hope it is not REEF, HVA or GREG!

Much may happen but investors will not just come and put their money in just because meetings happen. At the slightest indication of GREEN we see sellers jumping in to dump their shares and driving the market back to RED! Concrete broad measures and policies are needed and these must be proved that they work and not just put them down on paper or saying things verbally!

There are many positives also happening but the negatives must be corrected soon! In my opinion the market is attractive and people should look to enter slowly and hope future policies and steps in the economy are well planned and ironed out for the benefit of all!

Cheers!

Prior to 2009 Sri Lanka was considered as a failed country. But after defeating terrorists,We had a good two years 2010 and 2011, not only for CSE but for the entire economy as well as every other sector of the country.but unfortunately policy makers played for fools and now heading towards our old crown as a " Failed State " again. Just look at what is happening. Inconsistent and poorly planned policies every where, without any long term vision. Cabrals dollar sale which led to current crisis, Failure in education sector both scool and university level, expropriation of private properties, bankrup of law and order, government minister threatening high court judges, escalating debt burden with poor debt management, Massive loss making CPC,CEB,SRI LANKAN, MIHIN,CTB,poor investment in education and health sector, inconsistent and arrogant laws without a vision to name a few. Dream to become the wonder of Asia rapidly fading and moving towards our usual category as a " Failed state". Sad thing is people have given every possible power to the current regime, executives presidency, 2/3 of the parliment,almost all provincial and local governments, but having every power, these people have acted deaf and blind for above problems and no corrective measures taken and no punishment to culprits.

Yes Wildbear well said. The current regime has all the power to draft a beautiful constituition to propel our country forwards in all aspects and get rid of this one man show presidency, but its sad the opportunity is wasted big time!

Cheers!

What a tragedy that citizens have been facing. Parliament, Justice & institutional systems have been made silent & inactive paving the way for benefits of empowered segment. The power, ambition & greediness tread the common people endlessly who suffer enormously in day to day life.
Unless law & order serve the all equally & uniformly who can expect a progress of capital market. No punitive actions have been taken so far for highly privileged class. Let rulers open their big eyes & correct the bogey & disgusting system.
This is my personal & unbiased view.

Actually we always blame the politicians including me. But they are only a small cause for this failure. These politicians take 10%, put their friends and family for jobs blah blah but that's only a very small part of the problem.
Major cause is the educated Sri Lankans which consists of 90% of the rest. I mean all these public offices, government departments, education department, exams department are run by people who come with degrees, MSc, PhD and years of experience, commissioners, professors, experts panels, boards and all. The Sri Lankan educated which is what is driving the country planning, executing, monitoring and controlling. It is made up of a small portion of psychopath masters and the rest slaves. Now the country is run by the graduates in 70s, 80s.
Think about all the commissioners, department heads in railway, transportation, education department, university select committees, central bank, police. They are not politicians. They are educated Sri Lankans made by the Sri Lankan education system.
See the "Who is running Sri Lanka?" by wis linked below. It's like Matrix. We've been deceived all these years.

WildBear wrote: Prior to 2009 Sri Lanka was considered as a failed country. But after defeating terrorists,We had a good two years 2010 and 2011, not only for CSE but for the entire economy as well as every other sector of the country.but unfortunately policy makers played for fools and now heading towards our old crown as a " Failed State " again. Just look at what is happening. Inconsistent and poorly planned policies every where, without any long term vision. Cabrals dollar sale which led to current crisis, Failure in education sector both scool and university level, expropriation of private properties, bankrup of law and order, government minister threatening high court judges, escalating debt burden with poor debt management, Massive loss making CPC,CEB,SRI LANKAN, MIHIN,CTB,poor investment in education and health sector, inconsistent and arrogant laws without a vision to name a few. Dream to become the wonder of Asia rapidly fading and moving towards our usual category as a " Failed state". Sad thing is people have given every possible power to the current regime, executives presidency, 2/3 of the parliment,almost all provincial and local governments, but having every power, these people have acted deaf and blind for above problems and no corrective measures taken and no punishment to culprits.

Well I still think MR has the potential to do the changes but HE needs to select a proper team.Those(most) who surrounds HIM NOW are corrupted,selfish politicians and backboneless officers.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t20320-lion-leads-frontier-markets?highlight=lion

aj wrote:Actually we always blame the politicians including me. But they are only a small cause for this failure. These politicians take 10%, put their friends and family for jobs blah blah but that's only a very small part of the problem.
Major cause is the educated Sri Lankans which consists of 90% of the rest. I mean all these public offices, government departments, education department, exams department are run by people who come with degrees, MSc, PhD and years of experience, commissioners, professors, experts panels, boards and all. The Sri Lankan educated which is what is driving the country planning, executing, monitoring and controlling. It is made up of a small portion of psychopath masters and the rest slaves. Now the country is run by the graduates in 70s, 80s.
Think about all the commissioners, department heads in railway, transportation, education department, university select committees, central bank, police. They are not politicians. They are educated Sri Lankans made by the Sri Lankan education system.
See the "Who is running Sri Lanka?" by wis linked below. It's like Matrix. We've been deceived all these years.

Absolutely correct, but I would say more than 10% damage done by politicians. Yes government sector institutes lacks high quality professionals, rarely we can see highly qualified PROFFESIONALs. Like Dr. PBJ.Main reason for this is the peanut salaries of government sector is unable to retain qualified people.Classic example is the recent protest of university academics,,government wants them to work with scanty salaries while others working at private sector at higher salaries. This causes top people passing out from universities prevent entering as lecturers and second and third tier people will enter university staff, causing further deterioration of the system. This scenario is applicable to all other government sector proffessions like engineering,accounting, business management etc. Finally the jobless art graduates with no proffesional qualifications will flood the government sector and we can't expect anything more than this from them. So government should prioritize where they should invest money and for what.






unable to retain quality priffessionals in government sector. Classic example is the current disputr

WildBear wrote:Classic example is the recent protest of university academics,,government wants them to work with scanty salaries while others working at private sector at higher salaries.

I really doubt the capabilities of most of our university academics.Most of them do not do creative works.They just repeat what they have been tought.They have just nine lectures to do in a week.Only handful of them do creative useful work.

Agreeing with "aj" s logic. It's true. But we have to move forward with the available guys/resources.

All the replies for this topic were negative. But I think "PARKSON RETAIL ASIA" gave the reply today itself.

The acquisition of Odel and subsequent rights issue will bring in a foreign investment of equaling to almost Rs. 4 billion.

SO WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHY?

aj wrote:It is made up of a small portion of psychopath masters and the rest slaves.

We all, if not most, are slaves of western knowledge.We have to develop our knowledge system in to which we should absorb other knowledges.Till then we are slaves.

hariesha wrote:Agreeing with "aj" s logic. It's true. But we have to move forward with the available guys/resources.

All the replies for this topic were negative. But I think "PARKSON RETAIL ASIA" gave the reply today itself.

The acquisition of Odel and subsequent rights issue will bring in a foreign investment of equaling to almost Rs. 4 billion.

SO WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHY?

Im not negative at all. Im still optimistic about future of Sri Lanka, I'm saying we are wasting our opportunities, We are boasting about a 1 billion dollar FDI, while other similar countries attractingmore than ten times. We are still strugling with our economic policies, with playing fool by expropriation, while our competitors are creating favurable environment. We spend only 1.8 % of GDP for education, human resource development, while somalia spend 10%. We still have a chance if we identify our weaknesses and take corrective measures, still we are not late.


our comprtitors

hariesha wrote:Agreeing with "aj" s logic. It's true. But we have to move forward with the available guys/resources.

All the replies for this topic were negative. But I think "PARKSON RETAIL ASIA" gave the reply today itself.

The acquisition of Odel and subsequent rights issue will bring in a foreign investment of equaling to almost Rs. 4 billion.

SO WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHY?

I strongly think for foreigners Sri Lanka is like a Cuba before Castro took over or Iran before the current guys took over. It's a tropical paradise for tourism and entertainment. In pre Castro Cuba the environment was very friendly and slavish for the western world where westerners could do anything and everything, could build up the place for casinos, every sort of entertainment even things impossible in the home countries. The local politicians allowed them to do anything as they got their 10%. I think foreigners view Sri Lanka just as that, an entertainment spot where we could serve them in hotels and parlours. So don't get so excited when new hotels are getting built or foreigners throw money to build their leisure centers in here. Media will say that much tourists, this is coming up there. They're not doing us a favor. They are enjoying themselves. I think that's why I suspect the foreigners hired 'a lawyer', at the typical place, to try to get rid of the monks from the parliament. To make it easy for the leisure center. Otherwise why on earth would anybody go after that.
It would be Sri Lanka's part to use that to Sri Lanka's advantage, get construction, engineering, car factories, electronics factories, research and development centers all sort of things like in Korea or Taiwan. But I'm 100% sure Sri Lankan won't do that. And foreigners will only want to sell them not make us build them ourselves, unless Sri Lankans are cheap laborers for some thing here and there for pressing tyres or coiling wires. All sorts of brands coming into Sri Lanka from luxury cars to the latest electronics. Sri Lankans will be proud to talk about those things and would welcome them, say Sri Lanka is developed. But we would still be selling leaves from tea trees, peeling bark from rubber trees and digging holes for precious stones. I see Sri Lanka tomorrow as developed more as a leisure center serving the tourists like Thailand. Sri Lanka won't have any development as in Japan or Korea.

WildBear wrote:

hariesha wrote:Agreeing with "aj" s logic. It's true. But we have to move forward with the available guys/resources.

All the replies for this topic were negative. But I think "PARKSON RETAIL ASIA" gave the reply today itself.

The acquisition of Odel and subsequent rights issue will bring in a foreign investment of equaling to almost Rs. 4 billion.

SO WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHY?

Im not negative at all. Im still optimistic about future of Sri Lanka, I'm saying we are wasting our opportunities, We are boasting about a 1 billion dollar FDI, while other similar countries attractingmore than ten times. We are still strugling with our economic policies, with playing fool by expropriation, while our competitors are creating favurable environment. We spend only 1.8 % of GDP for education, human resource development, while somalia spend 10%. We still have a chance if we identify our weaknesses and take corrective measures, still we are not late.


our comprtitors

True. We are not upto our tre potential!

Whitebull wrote:

aj wrote:It is made up of a small portion of psychopath masters and the rest slaves.

We all, if not most, are slaves of western knowledge.We have to develop our knowledge system in to which we should absorb other knowledges.Till then we are slaves.

Sorry to say, it's nothing to do with 'western'. In western universities, students keep their spine straight and talk, question their superiors, ask why, make new inventions. Many of them send rockets in the backyard, make computers in their garage unlike many of the Sri Lankan university students protesting against this and that. Sri Lankan best students lot is conditioned to be slaves from the beginning. See https://youtu.be/ClymCgN28sw
They kneel before the seniors and when they go to government offices they don't ask why should I approve this contractor just because the minister tells me, when there are better contractors at cheap price. we should follow the tender process strictly, This contract work is very low quality, I order them stop paying and will go to courts for endangering the people. But these slaves won't do that they would stay silent before the senior officials (may be the same one or somebody else who stripped, hanged and beat them in the university)
If you have Ovitigala Vithanage Samantha like university students passing out from the Sri Lankan universities, in the government offices then they will stop, protest, follow the right process, instead of the ministers dropping the OL maths pass mark to 18 just because the ministers' children got only 18 marks or minister wants to increase 'the pass rate'. Samanthas will take lead in running an efficient bus, railway system, have daily maintenance routine so buses are clean and well maintained, they they run on schedule, that the bus won't end up corroding in a depo just because the radiator is faulty. Samanthas in Police won't allow Amare to murder or politicians to rape girls. Samanthas won't kneel before ministers just as they didn't kneel before in the university. The criminals would be locked up and the justice would prevail. Unfortunately in Sri Lankan bright students who can keep the head held high are either 2 feet under the earth like Samantha or they are driven out of the university system by those psycopath future controllers of the country.

Whitebull wrote:

WildBear wrote:Classic example is the recent protest of university academics,,government wants them to work with scanty salaries while others working at private sector at higher salaries.

I really doubt the capabilities of most of our university academics.Most of them do not do creative works.They just repeat what they have been tought.They have just nine lectures to do in a week.Only handful of them do creative useful work.

I hear that the academics who end up in the Lankan universities are people who couldn't get anything better, means they couldn't find better jobs, not intelligent enough or just wasted their student days without learning.

aj wrote:

hariesha wrote:Agreeing with "aj" s logic. It's true. But we have to move forward with the available guys/resources.

All the replies for this topic were negative. But I think "PARKSON RETAIL ASIA" gave the reply today itself.

The acquisition of Odel and subsequent rights issue will bring in a foreign investment of equaling to almost Rs. 4 billion.

SO WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHY?

I strongly think for foreigners Sri Lanka is like a Cuba before Castro took over or Iran before the current guys took over. It's a tropical paradise for tourism and entertainment. In pre Castro Cuba the environment was very friendly and slavish for the western world where westerners could do anything and everything, could build up the place for casinos, every sort of entertainment even things impossible in the home countries. The local politicians allowed them to do anything as they got their 10%. I think foreigners view Sri Lanka just as that, an entertainment spot where we could serve them in hotels and parlours. So don't get so excited when new hotels are getting built or foreigners throw money to build their leisure centers in here. Media will say that much tourists, this is coming up there. They're not doing us a favor. They are enjoying themselves. I think that's why I suspect the foreigners hired 'a lawyer', at the typical place, to try to get rid of the monks from the parliament. To make it easy for the leisure center. Otherwise why on earth would anybody go after that.
It would be Sri Lanka's part to use that to Sri Lanka's advantage, get construction, engineering, car factories, electronics factories, research and development centers all sort of things like in Korea or Taiwan. But I'm 100% sure Sri Lankan won't do that. And foreigners will only want to sell them not make us build them ourselves, unless Sri Lankans are cheap laborers for some thing here and there for pressing tyres or coiling wires. All sorts of brands coming into Sri Lanka from luxury cars to the latest electronics. Sri Lankans will be proud to talk about those things and would welcome them, say Sri Lanka is developed. But we would still be selling leaves from tea trees, peeling bark from rubber trees and digging holes for precious stones. I see Sri Lanka tomorrow as developed more as a leisure center serving the tourists like Thailand. Sri Lanka won't have any development as in Japan or Korea.

Don't go into the darkness always..
At least see the twilight...

Your ideas are inconsistent, my friend. Appreciating Castro while dreaming about Korea and Japan, the most westernize countries in Asia. The countries that have embraced USA and western ideology to the maximum.

Let’s not think about an UTOPIA. Let's be practical.

aj wrote:

Whitebull wrote:

aj wrote:It is made up of a small portion of psychopath masters and the rest slaves.

We all, if not most, are slaves of western knowledge.We have to develop our knowledge system in to which we should absorb other knowledges.Till then we are slaves.

Sorry to say, it's nothing to do with 'western'. In western universities, students keep their spine straight and talk, question their superiors, ask why, make new inventions. Many of them send rockets in the backyard, make computers in their garage unlike many of the Sri Lankan university students protesting against this and that. Sri Lankan best students lot is conditioned to be slaves from the beginning.

You did not get my point.It is not a problem of western knowledge but as this western knowledge suppresses our knowledge system based on mainly buddhism we become slaves.We are trained to worship this western knowledge from the begining.Still People tend to think we would have been vaddas if western people did not come.It is this mentality makes us slaves.It kills our dignity.

We have to understand that our system was totally different from their system.Aim of their system is satisfaction/increase of human desires but aim of our system was to attain 'Nibbana' at the end.....it is directed to controll of human desires to attain the complete and irreversible satisfaction at the end.At the sametime do not forget that we were experts in construction,cultivation and medicines which are the basics needs for a life.And our methods are environmentally friendly.

But now the problem is we have gone long distance in western methods so practically we can not go back.So we have to keep up with them.For that we have to make our knowledge which would again increase our dignity and would help us to get rid of this slavery mentality.

hariesha wrote:

Don't go into the darkness always..
At least see the twilight...

Your ideas are inconsistent, my friend. Appreciating Castro while dreaming about Korea and Japan, the most westernize countries in Asia. The countries that have embraced USA and western ideology to the maximum.

Let’s not think about an UTOPIA. Let's be practical.

Clarification. My post does not hate West or love Castro. (For the record I think that socialist thing is just another name for dictatorship.) I just took the environment before Castro as an example for the current environment of Sri Lanka. As I said, I think for foreign businessmen take Sri lanka as a place like Thailand. The future development would go like that. Sri Lanka won't be like Japan or Korea. That is, there won't be Samsung or Sony or Toyota. But there would be Phuket and Bangkok.

Though even hesitant , I have to admit there are some truthful things in your post. I can write a lot about my views on the mentality situation of the majority of Local university students . It is not that they want to be like that , it is because they are drived to be like that by a minority who can influence them. Minds of 20-25 year olds can be fragile and volatile under pressure.

But the major issue is how to solve this problem and not only talk about it. I can proudly say one thing. While I was/am active I have done everything in my grasp to act/talk sense to some misguided missiles in the Uni system. These are younger ones without understandinf what their first prioties are. Guiding them with some sensitive touch is what is needed. So much potential sadly hidden under various guises and circumstances.

We have some of the best brains but most time they are not utilized for the right reasons or actions.

aj wrote:

Sorry to say, it's nothing to do with 'western'. In western universities, students keep their spine straight and talk, question their superiors, ask why, make new inventions. Many of them send rockets in the backyard, make computers in their garage unlike many of the Sri Lankan university students protesting against this and that. Sri Lankan best students lot is conditioned to be slaves from the beginning. See https://youtu.be/ClymCgN28sw
They kneel before the seniors and when they go to government offices they don't ask why should I approve this contractor just because the minister tells me, when there are better contractors at cheap price. we should follow the tender process strictly, This contract work is very low quality, I order them stop paying and will go to courts for endangering the people. But these slaves won't do that they would stay silent before the senior officials (may be the same one or somebody else who stripped, hanged and beat them in the university)
If you have Ovitigala Vithanage Samantha like university students passing out from the Sri Lankan universities, in the government offices then they will stop, protest, follow the right process, instead of the ministers dropping the OL maths pass mark to 18 just because the ministers' children got only 18 marks or minister wants to increase 'the pass rate'. Samanthas will take lead in running an efficient bus, railway system, have daily maintenance routine so buses are clean and well maintained, they they run on schedule, that the bus won't end up corroding in a depo just because the radiator is faulty. Samanthas in Police won't allow Amare to murder or politicians to rape girls. Samanthas won't kneel before ministers just as they didn't kneel before in the university. The criminals would be locked up and the justice would prevail. Unfortunately in Sri Lankan bright students who can keep the head held high are either 2 feet under the earth like Samantha or they are driven out of the university system by those psycopath future controllers of the country.

WildBear wrote:Im not negative at all. Im still optimistic about future of Sri Lanka, I'm saying we are wasting our opportunities, We are boasting about a 1 billion dollar FDI, while other similar countries attractingmore than ten times. We are still strugling with our economic policies, with playing fool by expropriation, while our competitors are creating favurable environment. We spend only 1.8 % of GDP for education, human resource development, while somalia spend 10%. We still have a chance if we identify our weaknesses and take corrective measures, still we are not late.


our comprtitors

Wildbear,

I have to agree with you on the contents of your post. This expropriation itself was one of the biggest mistakes in my opinion ( let not go to political reasons behind it). Sad to hear what is happening to Pelawatte and Sevanagala after the take over. I recall how much profit Pelawatte made last time they reported profit and now ?? Priorities in a developing nation should be given to education, infrastructure, transporation, friendly enviroment to business, a reasonable but stern set of policies and a decent law system.

@aj: one question, can you point out which government departments are run by people with a PhD / MSc???

In my opinion, a lot of problems are caused because such government departments are NOT run by people like that... all the heads are political placements and they have no clue about how to work the system. For an example, take the Z-score issue, if there was someone with a maths (stat) PhD / MSc, this issue would be responsibly resolved in no time... it's just that some idiots are fiddling around the problem without knowing how the god damn Z-score system works. We used to learn this calculation in our A/L exams, and resolving the current crisis is does not seem like a huge mathematical problem for me.

In any case, why the hell not ask some statistics lecturer from a university to deal with this problem? Why is the department of education dicking around a system they don't understand? who is the academic responsible for the current crisis? Nobody, because if there were some professor who came up with the fix, they would have come forward and justified the decision... right now it's like nobody's bitch...

So, I don't agree with the fact that government departments are run by people with MSc / PhDs... at least not by those with science degrees. And if you have a science / engineering PhD / MSc, you don't have to work in a government department or even in SL... you can get a much better job in a western country.

I just don't get where you got this idea???? and a lot of people seem to have agreed with you.... can someone please point me out which government departments are run by people with PhDs and MScs???????

Please, I beg you, point out the details for me. I'm eagerly waiting.

Cheers!

Government departments, exams department, university select committees are filled with graduates, postgraduates. They are not school leavers at year 5. They are not put there by the politicians. These people come to those positions after finishing the university and climbing up the ladder. They are the people who are making the z scores, managing the power stations, managing the railway department, CTB, central bank, not the minister, not the security guard at the ministry. Those are run by the graduates and post graduates from the 70s, 80s, 90s.

As was said, there are 2 kinds of people coming out of the the Sri Lankan education system. 0 doesn't come out.

0. Bright, creative and who keep their head held high who are either killed like Samantha or eliminated out of the education system on the first day. If we had people like this then politicians or their henchmen will not be able to do their dirty work. They will not approve or stay silent.

And the rest,
1. Psychopath sadists who eventually go to the senior levels in the government offices, education department, universities, ministries. These are the people who are supposed to plan, monitor, execute your country affairs, Yes they have degrees, diplomas, msc, phds, These university student leaders usually get the privilege to lead the country in foreign seminars, conferences and scholarships. Those privileges go to this gang. And when they go to the ministries, departments, these people are the ones who get the privilege to go for education tours, scholarships. These educated people are the people who gang up with the politicians running the country.

2. Slaves who knelt on command of the psychopaths from the first day. They will finish the university and go work under those sadists. They will keep their head down just as in universities letting the heads to whatever they want. Yes they are also educated with degrees, diplomas. They will approve anything that comes from the seniors and whisper in the private about politicians and educated has no place.

Just a fact. I overheard a father talking on the phone today in the bus. He was talking about his daughter who got a high ranking in the university and was selected.
He said that he advised her to stay silent, don't try to talk as in school and keep her head down at university to avoid trouble because he knew she was a brave girl that she won't take orders from anyone, but he told her to be like she's dumb and not very intelligent. No surprise what the caller was talking about. Nice advice for the future leaders. Future is bright.