Reminder to CSE participants

At 4725 people said not to buy. At 4854 people said not to buy. At 4900 people said not to buy. Again 5000, 5100 etc.

Those who got in 4700-4900 range would have averaged their old counters with a
positive upward movement or gained profit already from many counters. Some counters has gained 20-50% from June bottoms.


Being negative all the time will make people miss the bus. Leave aside political ideas, other issues and try to be active at the right time to gain something. The market irrespective of controversial issues will somehow find a way to move ( either up or down). Some time more down than up and other times reverse. Why? Do you think all investors will wait and wait and wait to see market going down , down , down? Then who will be left at CSE. think wisely.


I try to leave political, personal views aside and look at CSE as a separate entity. If we try to included it always in global and local issues certain buses woudl have left. I think certain shares will not come down the ASI 4725 level again.
Do you think CSE will end wiping out everyone? If not think smart.

This is not a post to remind you to jump in to buy now. This is post to remind you to take action at the right time without being too negative. Luck sometimes favours the brave.


ps: I am not an ardent supporter of any political party at the moment due to my principles.
I find many of the politicians, big shots, hnwi very unethical and dishonest. So I find it is useless to always spend time to complain about everything while ignoring the all important reason we are here. Ie The CSE. Thats when you miss the bus.


Reference :

Posted on June 15th do-you-see-a-slighlt-positive-difference
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18928-do-you-see-a-slighlt-positive-difference


Posted on July 5th Some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present

Posted on Jult 26th Crucial stage for short term
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t20621-crucial-stage-for-short-term?highlight=present+short+term


http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

Well said slstock.You are a person with great common sense and also great knowledge.5200 possible tomorrow.Surely 5150.

...A persons years and quality of education have very little to do with making big money investing in the market..The more intelligent the people are , the more they tend to think they know what they are doing..

The market has a simple way of whittling all excessive pride and overblown egos down to size. After all, the whole idea is to be completely objective and recognise what the marketplace is telling you, rather than try prove that the thing you said or did yesterdayor six weeks ago was right. The fastest way to take a bath in the stock market or go broke is to try to prove that you are right and the market is wrong

William J .O Neil : Founder of Investors Daily

Hawk Eye wrote:...A persons years and quality of education have very little to do with making big money investing in the market..The more intelligent the people are , the more they tend to think they know what they are doing..

The market has a simple way of whittling all excessive pride and overblown egos down to size. After all, the whole idea is to be completely objective and recognise what the marketplace is telling you, rather than try prove that the thing you said or did yesterdayor six weeks ago was right. The fastest way to take a bath in the stock market or go broke is to try to prove that you are right and the market is wrong

William J .O Neil : Founder of Investors Daily

Thanks.....

You brought me back to earth...

traderathome wrote:

Hawk Eye wrote:...A persons years and quality of education have very little to do with making big money investing in the market..The more intelligent the people are , the more they tend to think they know what they are doing..

The market has a simple way of whittling all excessive pride and overblown egos down to size. After all, the whole idea is to be completely objective and recognise what the marketplace is telling you, rather than try prove that the thing you said or did yesterdayor six weeks ago was right. The fastest way to take a bath in the stock market or go broke is to try to prove that you are right and the market is wrong

William J .O Neil : Founder of Investors Daily

Thanks.....

You brought me back to earth...

@Hawk,
ඉඳලා ඉඳලා කිව්වේ නැතැයි කතාවක්... ඇඩෙනවා brother! ha ha!

@stumpy: do you have a different opinion that Hawk's statement or did you meant to agree with him?

I also thoroughly agree with Hawk's post. If it was not the case, I should've at least earned a couple of lacks by now...

Cheers!

එකෙන්ම agree with Hawk! lol!

@Hawk

"From every person you come across in life you learn something. How you interpret what you observe and put that into practice is up to you. Never underestimate the value and power of constant learning. Attitude is more important than skills when it comes to success and many people ultimately fail because they can not control their own ego,"

Dr.Nalaka Godahewa : Chairman CSE
Source : Sunday Island (Print Edition)

Thanks Hawk. I searched and found the rest of the article quoted by you above. Given below the full text.

Dr. Godahewa speaks of his experiences in public, private sectors

*On state control of banks, leaving private sector alone and ego

May 20, 2011, Sunday Island Print Edition



"There is no purpose of being an expert on management theory if you are not a good practitioner. On the other hand, if you are a good manager, then what you practice would usually be linked to management theory because all good management theories have evolved from good management practices," said Dr Nalaka Godahewa addressing the students and members of Sri Lanka institute of marketing.

Dr. Godahewa who is professionally qualified in three disciplines of management; engineering, marketing and finance, in addition to holding an MBA and a PhD was sharing his experiences of his colourful career of 18 years across 6 different industries under the topic ‘Marketer - A key driver in building a strong corporate brand’ at an experience sharing forum organized by the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing recently.

Lanka Hospitals…

"We are building a total customer care culture at Lanka Hospitals with a strong business strategy supported by operational strategies focusing on people, processes and resources," said Dr. Godahewa explaining the turnaround strategy adopted by the new board of directors chaired by Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse.

"I call this model TC3. The effective strategy supported by an efficient operation has already delivered results helping us to increase room occupancy from around 55% to almost 90% within one year helping us to reduce prices whilst increasing profitability from Rs. 7 million a year ago to Rs. 280 million in 2010. Lanka hospital has attracted the best medical and non-medical staff, invested in superior technology, improved processes to ensure customer convenience, and above all created an environment where patients and their families felt at home," said Dr Godahewa.

"When you walk into the hospital you get the feeling that you have entered a hotel but at the same time you know that the best medical care is waiting for you".

Dr Godahewa said he strongly supported maintaining a mix of local and foreign doctors the state-owned hospital which was once operated by Indian Apollo Hospitals.

"I have also recommended to the board to consider recruiting a few well-trained foreign nurses for the ICU units Lanka Hospitals is heavily investing in. For example, the Philippines has a strong reputation for producing well trained nurses. A mix which includes reputed Indian doctors and experienced Pilipino nurses working hand in hand with best of Sri Lankan doctors and trained Sri Lankan nurses would give the hospital a multinational dimension," he said.

Suntel…

Talking about his experience as part of the original team which set up Suntel, he said marketing was not a battle of products but a battle of perceptions.

"When I took over as Head of Marketing for Suntel, rival company Lanka Bell was already leading the wireless telephony battle. Against the wishes of some local directors I recommended a brand positioning strategy based on good customer care and introduced a tagline ‘Your Telecom Partner for Life’ instead of the original tagline ‘New Dimension in Technology’ which didn’t mean much to the consumer.

"We introduced Sri Lanka’s first 24-hour customer care hotline and reduced the average installation time to just 3 to 4 days when the industry took about 2-3 months to deliver. We recruited beautiful girls to the customer care hotline and put them in front of mirrors so that they will always smile at themselves and feel good when they talk to customers.

"We invested into IT software to provide a better service to customers. It took only 6 months for us to gain market leadership with this clear differentiation strategy," Dr. Godahewa pointed out.

"However, Suntel did not sustain the same brand positioning after the original marketing team left, and had tried to go back to technology based branding. When Lanka Bell came up with a brilliant advertising campaign ‘ kurukuru less ‘ using Sunil Perera as brand ambassador, it exposed an unspoken weakness of Suntel and it affected market share in the wireless telephone market," he said.

"Even though sales is identified as only one aspect of marketing by educationalists, effective sales management is a key success factor in many organizations," said Dr. Godahewa talking about his experiences in building strong sales teams at Unilever Ceylon, Sri Lanka Insurance and MAS Holdings.

Apparels and garments…

"There is a tendency for the young generation to prefer brand management over sales. But in my opinion sales is a more challenging field, which tests your life skills and emotional intelligence. So organizations should push their best people to sales and all senior managers including CEO should posses’ strong sales skills," Dr Godahewa said pointing out that in successful organizations such as MAS holdings all CEOs were expected to be personally involved in sales. "That’s why they can successfully cater to international markets where your customers are top brands such as Victoria Secret, Gap, and Nike," he said.

"A good manager is someone who thinks out of the box and constantly looks for solutions. When a team of non-apparel experts took responsibility of turning around the oldest factory of MAS in the late 90’s they not only improved operational efficiencies by challenging old work methods but also found new opportunities to make money by engaging in forward and backward integration.

"By developing a clear business strategy and aligning the management team to support it, within 5 years we were able to grow the turnover of the company from US$ 20 million to US$ 90 million by expanding into four countries and made almost US$ 10 million in profits," Dr. Godahewa said.

"Eli Goldratt’s famous book ‘The Goal’, helped us a lot in understanding the improvements required in the production floor and very soon other plants started following the operational model and the factory layout developed by us," he said and explained how the founder of MAS holdings Mahesh Amalean decided to restructure the already successful organization in 2004 saying, "We must embrace change when we are doing well and not when we are going down and forced to change".

Sri Lanka Insurance…

When ownership of Sri Lanka Insurance was transferred back to the government, the company got a very good opportunity to re-launch itself," said Dr. Godahewa said.

"The company was financially stable and had government backing. Because the company was under private sector management for almost six years, the company had developed a strong customer-care culture. We decided to build our brand on these two strengths; government protection and private sector-like care.

It was similar to the protection provided to a family by fathers and the care of Mother’s; so we built a marketing communication campaign which goes " Sri Lanka Insurance - like a father -like a mother’. This campaign was an enormous success and helped the brand to bounce back with the company regaining market share in almost all product categories".

"The company made a lot of money through effective fund management capitalising on the stock market boom after the war. Our strategic investments helped the government to gain control at Seylan, NDB and HNB banks.

"At Sri Lanka Insurance, I couldn’t finish what I started because I was moved to Sri Lanka Tourism as chairman," said Dr Godahewa.

Tourism…

Speaking about tourism Dr Godahewa pointed out that it was a 100 percent private sector driven industry and the role of government should be limited to policy making, investor facilitation and regulation.

"Rather than trying to do promotions within administrative and financial regulations of the public service, the state must empower the private sector to take the lead. Sri Lanka Tourism has developed a five year

tourism development strategy focusing on five key areas; creating an environment conducive for tourism, attracting right segments of tourists, enduring departing tourists are happy, improving domestic tourism and improving global image of Sri Lanka," he said.

Dr. Godahewa advised the students and members of SLIM to observe and study both successful professionals as well as those who failed. "From every person you come across in life you learn something. How you interpret what you observe and put that into practice is up to you. Never underestimate the value and power of constant learning. Attitude is more important than skills when it comes to corporate success and many people ultimately fail because they can not control their own ego," he pointed out.

This is just great . You guys like to follow William O' Neils quotations from a foreign Land and comment on them heavily but not a Local guy's post which he started a thread on ?


Thanks HawkEye for adding flavor and spice to the thread.


NO thanks to all others who did not comment to the original posters effort but to William O Neils'

Slstock, yes, your predictions appear to have been proven, but as I see this current run, its some what a manipulated one.

Reasons? Genuine investor sentiments are in shatters(this was confirmed by IMF too), manipulaters are of upbeat mood over the two resignations, no regulater to oversee what is happenning at present and manipulaters have a field day!

This would last until the manipulators off load their over priced stocks. Hence, my advise is "play safe" in such fake runs.

Yes Hapu playing safe is always good. My point is we should not always be looking things from a negative point of view as we will miss chances. What about this chance from ASI 4800 to 5100 itself. These chances are always there even if sentiments are low. We need to worry abotu certain stock movements and not worry too much about index. Index can be manipulated. But a stock at RSI 10 , PE of 4 and 60% of NAV . How long can it go down?

Now above does not apply to speculative shares without fundamentals as they can be manipulated by some to their fancy and on easy news ( up or down)

K.Haputantri wrote:Slstock, yes, your predictions appear to have been proven, but as I see this current run, its some what a manipulated one.

Reasons? Genuine investor sentiments are in shatters(this was confirmed by IMF too), manipulaters are of upbeat mood over the two resignations, no regulater to oversee what is happenning at present and manipulaters have a field day!

This would last until the manipulators off load their over priced stocks. Hence, my advise is "play safe" in such fake runs.

slstock wrote:Yes Hapu playing safe is always good. My point is we should not always be looking things from a negative point of view as we will miss chances. What about this chance from ASI 4800 to 5100 itself. These chances are always there even if sentiments are low. We need to worry abotu certain stock movements and not worry too much about index. Index can be manipulated. But a stock at RSI 10 , PE of 4 and 60% of NAV . How long can it go down?

Now above does not apply to speculative shares without fundamentals as they can be manipulated by some to their fancy and on easy news ( up or down)

K.Haputantri wrote:Slstock, yes, your predictions appear to have been proven, but as I see this current run, its some what a manipulated one.

Reasons? Genuine investor sentiments are in shatters(this was confirmed by IMF too), manipulaters are of upbeat mood over the two resignations, no regulater to oversee what is happenning at present and manipulaters have a field day!

This would last until the manipulators off load their over priced stocks. Hence, my advise is "play safe" in such fake runs.

Yes, this is a good period for short term trading only if you know the game well. Novices, please stick to GEMs, fundamentally stronng/good shares.

Many people are very afraid to invest as they have got burnt badly in the last year or so. The mind set has got very weak and for the shortest possible profit they will sell.

The holding power to see shares go upto their intrinsic values have diminished( long term interest) . Most are worried only short term.We cannot blame the small time retailers also ( if they did not gamble. If they did it is their own issue) as fear drive most of us just like hope. The market turn around does not happen in 3 days to see 15% ASI jumps . It happens gradually.


How many of you think that certain shares which were trading when ASI was 4725 will go lower than that again? This is why systamatic collection without looking worrying too much market bottoms is a key.

The issue is many have short term mind set as opposed to long term. So seeing shares at absurdly low values does not entice them as they think they can get it for lower.

Let me remind you a good investor should have long term, short term, medium term stocks in their portfolio. Always waiting for further bad new and market bottom will make you lose opportunities.

The recent accumulation pattern and ASI rise has been better than before. Ofcourse there will be red days in the future as profit taking need to happen. But will there be panic selling again to beat certain shares at 4725 prices?

Sometimes the best offense is a great defense

One Doctor out and another Doctor in,Foreigners back, retailers are back, HNWI are back(ing) and Its started raining too, some more to turn positive. and letz be positive.

there is a old saying
""Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs dont""

Hawk Eye wrote:Sometimes the best offense is a great defense

One Doctor out and another Doctor in,Foreigners back, retailers are back, HNWI are back(ing) and Its started raining too, some more to turn positive. and letz be positive.

there is a old saying
""Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs dont""

LOL i love the quote... to add Interests rates are too projected to be lover by the end of 2012,

slstock wrote:But a stock at RSI 10 , PE of 4 and 60% of NAV . How long can it go down?

An eye opener question....

I learnt that the best way to beat the game is not to play at uncertain occasions..

Some of u may recall that holding on to some shares till its value going down the drain is not wise.. When we see an imminent downtrend we'll also have to join the trend and leave..
If you hold onto your shares with your dear life frustration, anger, desperation are gonna be your friends.. But if your loss is minimal, only the sadness embraces you..

Further more; some of us have the tendency to average down. Hmmm I cannot agree with that either than to a certain extent. This is the possible way you could bring down the avg value but it has a price; its called opportunity loss..

ASI is not the only index that we need to worry of.. We also have to look into the sectors; which are doing good, which can prosper in coming years, which can fall, etc...

Having said that, one should also need to concentrate on individual counters which already have bottomed out..
ASI run can drag the shares till 5400 - 5500 but the sentiments are weak, still investors lack confidence.. A SEC head cannot do miracles over-night. And another downtrend can cause alot of pain to already wounded.

Now brokers may bend over backwards but one must be aware of the back seat drivers..

Lastly, if u know the Ropes then Hold Your Horses...

smallville wrote:
Further more; some of us have the tendency to average down. Hmmm I cannot agree with that either than to a certain extent. This is the possible way you could bring down the avg value but it has a price; its called opportunity loss..

What I think is averaging down can be beneficial in bull and sideway market ofcourse if you act wisely only...but in bear market it can be debrimental......Furthur to that same goes with for buying with broker's credit.

slstock wrote: Index can be manipulated. But a stock at RSI 10 , PE of 4 and 60% of NAV . How long can it go down?

Past 3 decades PER moved between 5 and 25 for several times.

When it reached 20 (and beyond) all were talking about CSE. Newcomers enter to the game bringing fresh money. We saw "Sky is the limit for CSE", "worlds best market" type headlines in our newspapers. All are happy and praise each other. If you asked someone not to invest he will take you as an enemy.

When it moved towards the other edge (6 or below) very limited number of players were seen buying selected stocks at low levels. No one talk positively about the market. People blame each other (& SEC) for the debacle. If you ask someone to invest he will take you as an enemy.

Chinwi wrote:

slstock wrote: Index can be manipulated. But a stock at RSI 10 , PE of 4 and 60% of NAV . How long can it go down?

Past 3 decades PER moved between 5 and 25 for several times.

When it reached 20 (and beyond) all were talking about CSE. Newcomers enter to the game bringing fresh money. We saw "Sky is the limit for CSE", "worlds best market" type headlines in our newspapers. All are happy and praise each other. If you asked someone not to invest he will take you as an enemy.

When it moved towards the other edge (6 or below) very limited number of players were seen buying selected stocks at low levels. No one talk positively about the market. People blame each other (& SEC) for the debacle. If you ask someone to invest he will take you as an enemy.

Very Interesting and True

nkuda wrote:

Chinwi wrote:

slstock wrote: Index can be manipulated. But a stock at RSI 10 , PE of 4 and 60% of NAV . How long can it go down?

Past 3 decades PER moved between 5 and 25 for several times.

When it reached 20 (and beyond) all were talking about CSE. Newcomers enter to the game bringing fresh money. We saw "Sky is the limit for CSE", "worlds best market" type headlines in our newspapers. All are happy and praise each other. If you asked someone not to invest he will take you as an enemy.

When it moved towards the other edge (6 or below) very limited number of players were seen buying selected stocks at low levels. No one talk positively about the market. People blame each other (& SEC) for the debacle. If you ask someone to invest he will take you as an enemy.

Very Interesting and True

Chinwi@ Is it advisable to invest in a bear market ?.

@Chinwi: if I understand correctly, the current market PER is around 10. So, would you say it's "possible" for this to go down further? (from your experience)

Thanks!

anubis wrote:@Chinwi: if I understand correctly, the current market PER is around 10. So, would you say it's "possible" for this to go down further? (from your experience)

Thanks!

yes according to the bloomberg it is 10.61
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSEALL%3AIND