What share to pick and Why?

I did the below post sometime ago,
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

But we now should have a better idea with Sept results out and considering a probable lower interest regime with no bank credit limitation as before.


There seems to be talk in the forum about re/entering market now. Undervalued , most undervalued are words I see a lot. Maybe without multiple posts maybe we can use this topic to start discussing about shares.

NAV and PE only? A Discussion :

Nowadays Usually research reports and investors tend to value shares on PE and NAV.

Here is a thought . How about if we redefine the word " most undervalued".

( now am talking about investing and not trading okay)

What about considering PE , NAV but also decent dividend , growth , future cash generation and retail play?

Please list your share and SAY WHY. The categories you can post are


Category 1: Based on NAV , PE , decent dividend, future cash generation , retail play ( investing or trading)
Category 2: Based on technical trends ( for trading )
Category 3: Based on speculation/rumor. ( for trading )

Please cleary SAY WHY and any other useful; info.


Okay le me start :

Category 1 : TFIL. PE about 5. March 31 NAv should be about 12. Next year Dividend can be above .Rs 0.8 . Still small fin company. Few branch addition can make them grow Eps by big margins. In a run this moves fast. We seen this several times . IPO price Rs 20


Category 3: Based on speculation. What about BFL. December/March usually stronger quarters for them. Chicken price increase . Incentives from budget. Have access to local grain through sub. trading 1/3 high price.

BTW please no fights on poultry shares. Some like some don;t . It okay.
This is an option and a disucssion only as a "share"

My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN




Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

oops...

UML/DIMO/BFL missed the from my PF

traderathome wrote:oops...

UML/DIMO/BFL missed the from my PF

I think DIMO will move up from 600 level this week.

sahan8896 wrote:

traderathome wrote:oops...

UML/DIMO/BFL missed the from my PF

I think DIMO will move up from 600 level this week.

BFL & UML shoot very soon...

traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN




Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

My picks....

VLL-REXP-REEF W-UML-CTCE-CSF-CIFL-ACME

slstock wrote:Please list your share and SAY WHY. The categories you can post are

Category 1: Based on NAV , PE , decent dividend, future cash generation , retail play ( investing or trading)
Category 2: Based on technical trends ( for trading )
Category 3: Based on speculation/rumor. ( for trading )

Please cleary SAY WHY and any other useful; info.

Interesting topic from sls.

Cat 1:
collected SERV as a mid/long term investment.
Recently they re-open for business after a major refurbishment worth Rs1.8 billion.

http://thekingsbury.lk/

Its not about PE but future earnings. Locationwise it's at least 9 out of 10 in Colombo.

Cons: Dont know much details about the Rs 1.8 billion loan they have taken to do the refurbishment.
Expecting a loss in Q3 & Q4 2012. ( Q3 loss > Q4 loss)

Cat 1:
Collecting SEYB.
Seylan Bank had some troubled past but expecting a better future.
It was a tough call to select the best (for me) out of COMB, SAMP, NTB & SEYB.
Risk of a right issue also minimum.
Expecting a better dividend end of next month

Cat 3:

ABAN, WAPO & CCS.
CCS is a real wild card.

Above counters are just few companies come to my mind.

About few months ago I did collect LGL, LOLC n ACL as long term investment but they did give the anticipated profit margin far early so I had to dispose all.

UKBOY,


Some feedback:

Very good reasons given.


Actually it is a juggle between NTB and SEYB. But good point about right issue. However NTB also seems okay with Capital. They might edge out SEYB with dividend yield. Also earning seems better. But SEYB leading NTB on Nav.

ABAN is not much of a spec in my opinion. Look at the present fundamentals. However their earnign were not consistent.

I is a juggle for me between ABAN and APLA but I think ABAN is leading now.

Looks like you are back to your likable spec WAPO.

Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.

Okay then here is Speculative to guess

It is "very low cost" people don;t talk a lot . Public holdign is high but and it deserves a run. Corrected about 70 % from top. Als it did not have a proper run since ASI 4700.

slstock wrote:Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.

Sls, I think because of two reasons majority of forum members are scared express their favourite/collecting shares.
still the future is uncertern.
mention something earlier could easily lead he/she to a loser in the future ( if it will not work as they said).People will recognise them as a losers.

It is extremely easy to tell something about past but not future.

That true UKB.

When the real bull starts we will have so many making predictions , price targets and spreading rumours as promotions.

Right now when the shares are at lower price people are scared to invest or talk. When market goes down a bit on a correction that when the "crap" talking guys come out.

It would be great if these people come out now and say n what their opinion is and what shares they are buying( with reasons) or selling. Pointless coming later and say I made this profit on a share. Then they will make statement to panic other like saying ASI will 5000, 4000 etc. What good does to the forum.

Now is the time to come and do some service. Share you opinion on shares.

Also making mistakes is not a problem , We all do. We do not have to be worried to state our opinion about a share With reasons . If it comes down it is okay and no decent person would blame you ( unless you are a showoff).

UKboy wrote:

slstock wrote:Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.

Sls, I think because of two reasons majority of forum members are scared express their favourite/collecting shares.
still the future is uncertern.
mention something earlier could easily lead he/she to a loser in the future ( if it will not work as we said).
Most will recognise you as a loser.

It is extremely easy to tell something about past not future.

UKboy wrote:

slstock wrote:Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.

Sls, I think because of two reasons majority of forum members are scared express their favourite/collecting shares.
still the future is uncertern.
mention something earlier could easily lead he/she to a loser in the future ( if it will not work as they said).People will recognise them as a losers.

It is extremely easy to tell something about past but not future.

hmmm

PLC @14.10 SL 13 PT15.5-16 and Longterm 18++

Whatever

LOLC and LIOC making headlines these days.for me their future looks very bright.

How about KFP......

i think better than CARG know...


please share your thoughts...
TAH

KFP is stabilizing after right issue. Issue with KFP is earnings are not consistent.
Right now on NAV and PE KFP is betetr than CAR but long term, if CARGs all investments start reaping profits, CARG will be a huge force. This usper market taxseems to be in the back of some people. Looks like the tax will be ultimately bared by custoemrs and not supermarket chains.

traderathome wrote:How about KFP......

i think better than CARG know...


please share your thoughts...
TAH

traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN




Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation

TAH ,

Am guessing , COMB.X to goto Rs 120 Comb.N might have to go over Rs 140.

% gain wise, isn;t comb.N better then for capital gain?

traderathome wrote:

traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN




Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation

What do you guys think of AAF??

slstock wrote:TAH ,

Am guessing , COMB.X to goto Rs 120 Comb.N might have to go over Rs 140.

% gain wise, isn;t comb.N better then for capital gain?

traderathome wrote:

traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN




Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation

I liked the chart pattern on COMBX than the COMBN.

Looks its about trade at the next stage PA wise.

So its a technical choice

TAH

Yes I know you are a techie. But you know that comb.x moves comb.n moves. Right now x is 90% of N. So it is very high. The gap is too close if we observe past behavior.

Also we should note what happened to cdb.x can happen if by chance comb goes for a X script dividend
( but they usually don;t do that and does script divindeds with N to N and X to X)

Anyway good luck.

traderathome wrote:

slstock wrote:TAH ,

Am guessing , COMB.X to goto Rs 120 Comb.N might have to go over Rs 140.

% gain wise, isn;t comb.N better then for capital gain?

traderathome wrote:

traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN




Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation

I liked the chart pattern on COMBX than the COMBN.

Looks its about trade at the next stage PA wise.

So its a technical choice

TAH