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1Q GDP growth slows but still amongst world’s highest-DNH financials on Daily FT

+2
kukumarx
WildBear
6 posters

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WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

http://www.ft.lk/2013/06/24/1q-gdp-growth-slows-but-still-amongst-worlds-highest/

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I often wondered why at times when things were getting more and more difficult for most people, the country still showed robust GDP growth.(like now) I often thought that if GDP grew, people should be better off. The statistic is commonly interpreted that way.

How wrong I was. 

Wikipedia gives the following formula for the calculation of GDP


GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product


From this formula one can see that in Sri Lanka GDP growth currently is coming mainly from govt infrastructure spending and government spending. (mostly based on borrowed funds)


Private consumption (what you and I experience) could probably even be shrinking and we would still show GDP growth.


Thus we should look at GDP growth numbers and try to rank countries we should have this in mind.

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

@Kukumarx are you on the skyscraper city forum?

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Some thoughts

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t27324-adbs-2013-projection-of-sl-gdp-at-68-lower-that-cb-target-of-75#159450



kukumarx wrote:I often wondered why at times when things were getting more and more difficult for most people, the country still showed robust GDP growth.(like now) I often thought that if GDP grew, people should be better off. The statistic is commonly interpreted that way.

How wrong I was. 

Wikipedia gives the following formula for the calculation of GDP


GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product


From this formula one can see that in Sri Lanka GDP growth currently is coming mainly from govt infrastructure spending and government spending. (mostly based on borrowed funds)


Private consumption (what you and I experience) could probably even be shrinking and we would still show GDP growth.


Thus we should look at GDP growth numbers and try to rank countries we should have this in mind.

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator

If you take defense spending out, its another GDPpicture right ?

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Daily FT report is pure misuse of statistics

GDP growth is relative to present level of development

Hoe can you compare Singapore .2% growth with Sri Lanka 6.6% growth

There was  a famous saying about Statistics
"The Lamp post is for illumination But drunken people use it for  some other purpose( sleeping)"

Daily FT  and govt use statistics as in case of "DOPE KARAYA"

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