First capital holdings

pathfinder · 1 First capital holdings Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:30 pm

pathfinder

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This is the mostly discussed stock on these days,Since it has no separate thread I thought to start a new thread for CFVF as it deserved.

In a envirenment of reducing interest rates,companies doing bond trading is benifited.
CFVF and ESL are the listed companies doing this business.

I took 364 days T bills as a indicator of the movement of interest rates.
This is how it appears,

Column1	EPS	T-Bills 364 days	CFVFclosed price
Sep-11	0.57	7.31	18.5
Dec-11	-2.12	9.31	16.1
Mar-12	-0.72	11.32	11
Jun-12	0.34	12.88	10
Sep-12	0.72	13.02	15
Dec-12	0.79	11.69	12
Mar-13	2.61	11.35	11.2
Jun-13	0.61	10.66	18.7
Sep-13	0.28	10.57	14.8
Dec-13	1.57	8.29	17.5
Mar-14	0.71	7.05	19.3
Jun-14	2.07	6.99	20.3

Falling interest rates have increased the profitability of cfvf,when t-bills falling the share price is getting up.During september 2014 interest rates further declined,so we can expect very healthy EPS for sep quarter.

Let's look at the dividend paid by the CFVF,
EPS Dividend
09/10 6.38 5
10/11 9.23 0
11/12 -1.69 2
12/13 4.57 0
13/14 3.13 4

For 14/15 EPS will be 12-15,
So what would be the Dividend then Very Happy

Now have a look on a technical aspect,

First capital holdings Cfvf_c10

On daily charts price moved above 161.8% of fib level which is 43, with a good volume support.
MACD and ADX also showing a strong trend.
Weekly and Monthly charts also looking good.
According to Fib levels next target would be 66,which is 261.8% of fib retracement. Laughing

This is my view,I may be biased as I'm holding some Razz

malan100 · 2 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:36 pm

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why this CFVF price get down irrespective of a very good results. is it a manipulation by a big one..

Gainer · 3 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:45 pm

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CFVF should be go up 80.00 levels next week

sudheeee · 4 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:48 pm

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Gainer wrote:CFVF should be go up 80.00 levels next week

indeed

NZ BOY · 5 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:36 pm

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Good prediction Gainer I also believe CFVF will up to 80 with in next few days

worthiness · 6 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:08 pm

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All the counters are to be exposed with market behaviour & its sentiments regardless of the fundamental strength. So, such prediction on uptrend pricing takes place at the right time of the market.

gayanath1983 · 7 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:10 pm

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i also belive will pass 70 easily

NZ BOY · 8 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:05 pm

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if they declare 6 rupee my target price is 110 to 120

this is possible (90%) bocz of History Mother companies Have more than 80% shares

they will declare Dividend Soon

gayanath1983 · 9 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:08 pm

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Need to collect more...CFVF.......

gayanath1983 · 10 Re: First capital holdings Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:10 pm

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i missed this early..

pathfinder · 11 Re: First capital holdings Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:08 pm

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Don't worry guys best part is yet to come. Very Happy

They will declare a hefty dividend because CSEC rely on the dividend from CFVF. Laughing

There is a well planed drama going on here,few broker huts pushing the price down by putting sell orders and same time buying low from panic sellers,claiming that interest rate going to up.

If interest rates going to increase in coming days ESL should get the first hit because it is less diversified than CFVF.
look at the price movement of ESL,It was up when CFVF going down even after good results,
Don't you think there is something going on here Laughing

I don't think interest rates will go up in coming months while a election is nearby.
Be calm! you will see the moon Razz

RPPA · 12 Re: First capital holdings Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:12 pm

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pathfinder wrote:Don't worry guys best part is yet to come.
They will declare a hefty dividend because CSEC rely on the dividend from CFVF.

There is a well planed drama going on here,few broker huts pushing the price down by putting sell orders and same time buying low from panic sellers,claiming that interest rate going to up.

If interest rates going to increase in coming days ESL should get the first hit because it is less diversified than CFVF.
look at the price movement of ESL,It was up when CFVF going down even after good results,
Don't you think there is something going on here
I don't think interest rates will go up in coming months while a election is nearby.
Be calm! you will see the moon

K7 wrote:
RPPA wrote:

I said in the morning that longer tenner Bond rates in the secondary market has gone up by 50 BASIS POINTS. (0.50%) So it is very negative for a primary dealer.(CFVF)

In the afternoon it has reversed downwards some where close to that level to smooth off the position.

Another 0.50% adjustment downwards would be great.

RPPA, I bought CFVF today morning (Average cost 57.50) with the expectation of a run with financial out. but it turned around. Keeping it with a hope, that it will reach at least 60. planned to exit at 58.50 - 59.00 next week. what you think. I'm expecting your advise to take a decision on this for a safe exit / take some profit. Tks

I was so positive about this stock.

Definitely today they played us out by selling their quantities till 55/- indirectly by putting forward the negative int' rate movements.(Surely key players read what we talk here also. So intentionally they played us out)

By looking at the fluctuations it was eminent that this stock had the jump from 35-56 when the secondary market long term bond rates dropping steadily.

So don't get upset today bond market reversed positively.

Hold on this should go up up & up at least to 75-80 (i am adjusting my earlier prediction of 100/- due to what they have done) . With dividend pending

Mid next week things should be positive.

This is what had happen,

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