WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO?

ansar · 1 WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 3:12 pm

ansar

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They have alloted the full amount up to 71000. So there will be more sellers with big lots. They may place the order even at 14.20 expecting to match the starting price. The 'big boys' may place orders around 16 -20. But there will be more buying orders at around 10. So, Computer will calculate both buy and sell orders to get an average price of around 14.50.
This is my opinion. Nowadays the market doesn't go with the 'fundamentalists'. It goes only for news and rumors. Anyway I pray for our retailers who invested in EXPO.

Opinions please...

Antonym · 2 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 3:35 pm

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At Rs 24.96, Expolanka would have the same PE ratio as JKH does. Whether Expo deserves this PE ratio - or higher or lower - is left to your judgement. Smile

(I have calculated this using Profit before tax for EXPO & JKH for 9 months ended Dec-10.)

In the IPO, retail demand was less than supply @ Rs 14. But, to sustain interest levels, there would be some propping up to ensure that EXPO does not drop below offer price. If I was to take a guess, the starting price would be Rs 16 - 17.

smallville · 3 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 6:16 pm

smallville

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I didnt apply for this IPO and I saw their allotment criteria.. Expect a lot of selling pressure as even if you ask for 50000/- shares, it wud've been alloted Wink

so the number of times it was oversubscribe shows how retailers are treating their PP..

econ · 4 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:12 pm

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It will start over the IPO price but may come down below IPO price in few days.

milanka · 5 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:24 pm

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Retailers expected much less number of shares compared to applied quantity. But there was no refunds and full applied quantity was alloted. Now they have more than what they really wanted.

Also retailers want funds to apply to softlogic. So they want to sell soon and get out. Due to this the prices would drop. Selling preasure would increase.

This is what I think.

gayannadeeka · 6 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:41 pm

gayannadeeka

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Expo will come Rs 16.00 in first day....

pushpakumara · 7 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:51 pm

pushpakumara

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It is always a guessing game. Why do not they reveal us the latest Offer/Bid Prices during Pre Open period for any stock?. Is there any particular reason/s?

rijayasooriya · 8 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 8:26 pm

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There shareholders who have purchased at price of Rs6. Can they sell on the first day ? Experts please comment.

ccsentha · 9 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 9:51 pm

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yes they can

xmart · 10 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 9:52 pm

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ansar wrote:They have alloted the full amount up to 71000. So there will be more sellers with big lots. They may place the order even at 14.20 expecting to match the starting price. The 'big boys' may place orders around 16 -20. But there will be more buying orders at around 10. So, Computer will calculate both buy and sell orders to get an average price of around 14.50.
This is my opinion. Nowadays the market doesn't go with the 'fundamentalists'. It goes only for news and rumors. Anyway I pray for our retailers who invested in EXPO.

Opinions please...

Heraymila Securities in a research report said: “We recommend investors subscribe to the EXPO IPO. It is an exposure to a well-managed, geographically diversified and growing logistics business. The issue price of Rs. 14 offers upside to our intrinsic valuation of Rs. 17.” This recommendation was despite tactical sore point on pre IPO price.

There shareholders who have purchased at price of Rs6. Can they sell on the first day ? Experts please comment.

Broker pulse on Expolanka IPO
Broker Comment

* Acuity Yes
* Asha Phillip Yes/Medium to Long Term
* Asia Securities Yes
* Assetline Neutral/Yes Long Term
* Ceylinco Yes
* CT Smith Yes
* DNH Yes/Medium to Long Term
* Heraymila Yes
* IIFL Ceylon Yes/Long Term
* John Keells Yes
* NDB Report Out Today
* Richard Peiris Neutral/Yes Long Term
* SC Securities Yes
* Taprobane Yes

those who bought @6 Rs, can sell their stake on first day. even 71,000 shares fully assign. then first day selling pressure will be huge over buying pressure. i suppose it may down 1 or 2 Rs below IPO price and then start its journey after consolidation. anyway this is a good company to invest.

chamith · 11 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 10:04 pm

chamith

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I never seen a research report that says DO NOT SUBSCRIBE for any IPO.

Fresher · 12 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 10:26 pm

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it may be a good stock to watch in the future, but for an IPO it is not good in my books. I mean it wouldn't be successful for people looking to sell on the first day to book huge gains.

DK · 13 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 11:53 pm

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My reply is slightly off topic if you consider the topic to be only the opening price, but anyway here it goes:

The retail participation has been quite low in EXPO. It's been low to the point that even after allocating fully to the retailers, there is enough leftover to be allocated to non-retail investors. (Based on the IPO price, a retailer is someone who applied up to 7000 shares. However, full allocation happened up to 10 times that, up to 71000 shares).

This means that a large number of institutional investors were in for the IPO regardless of its price. Granted, the 6 times over subscription is due to some assuming that that they will not get the full allocation and therefore applying for a larger figure, nonetheless, they did apply.

A larger institutional participation means (for me) that people who actually spend time and money analysing the particular company decided to invest in it. To me this is good news. The first day trading price may not go high compared to some stocks we saw recently, however it will go up in a few years time. Yes, a few years.

Disclaimer: I did apply for Expo Lanka under retailer category. My views may be biased on me wanting this company to be a good one.

smalta · 14 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 12:10 am

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this will start from 1 or 2 above the ipo price and definitely come down below the IPO price within the first day or eventually when will this come below the ipo price depend on the over all market behavior ( whether it is a green day or a red day )

reasons to come this share below the IPO price are

before the IPO there was a sell down ( which is not a private placement , in a private placement buyers cant sell there shares before a 1 year of time from the buying date but in a sell down no such a rule governed the selling )

issued price of the sell down was 6/= and ipo price is 14 so if a subscriber from a sell down sold it on the 1st day at the IPO price the gain would be 120%

sell down was done between less number of subscribers so each had a large quantity at 6/= ( we have seen before in normal collection cases and also laugfs IPO when big people making a artificial selling pressure and collect shares at lower prices so same effect will taken place )

comparing to other IPOS in past year this hass a less number of subscribers
(that is why each subscriber below 71000 get the full quantity in past it was no more than 2000 maximum ) so more than ask is in hand and definitely they want to have cash in hand because of coming attractive IPOs

plus points -

in long and mid term expo lanka is a company which have a bright future
well diversified holding company so if u have cash in hand and if the share went below the IPO price you can hold on otherwise sell above the IPO price and by back when it came below the IPO price

( these are my views only , no one is responsible for some ones act other than the person who did it )

Rstock · 15 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 7:32 am

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Start a little above 14 and comes short term gain down to little below 14. I dont think there would be any short term gain

dr kiru005 · 16 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 7:40 am

dr kiru005

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i think its just under 10/= nowadays less people in the market interested in ipos and more interested in ipo on the pre-market thank on the trading.

lets wait and see

Genting · 17 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 8:11 am

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I think retailers didn't apply because, in the past, they usually didn't get what they applied for. They may want to buy shares on the first day of trading at premium than tying money for some time and not getting what they applied

Fresher · 18 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 8:18 am

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Genting wrote:I think retailers didn't apply because, in the past, they usually didn't get what they applied for. They may want to buy shares on the first day of trading at premium than tying money for some time and not getting what they applied

that definitely cannot be the reason since the new change of rule favors the retailers.

rijayasooriya · 19 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 9:55 pm

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ccsentha wrote:yes they can

Thanks

Slstock · 20 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Mon May 30, 2011 3:48 am

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chamith wrote:I never seen a research report that says DO NOT SUBSCRIBE for any IPO.

Well sometime a broker does not do a research report. I guess that like saying don;t buy in their own way.

wallstreetguy · 21 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:21 pm

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Expolanka deserves to be around 8-10 because, it is massively over valued.
EPS is 0.29 for the group for 2010.

14/0.29 = 48.27

0.29 x 34.7 (DIV SECTOR) = 10.063

rijayasooriya · 22 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:59 pm

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wallstreetguy wrote:Expolanka deserves to be around 8-10 because, it is massively over valued.
EPS is 0.29 for the group for 2010.

14/0.29 = 48.27

0.29 x 34.7 (DIV SECTOR) = 10.063

Agreed.

JennyFunny · 23 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:06 pm

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what will happen on open day depends..on the selling pressure..long term good investment though..

*this is not a buy recommendation.

Happy Trading

TuskerLK · 24 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:54 pm

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rijayasooriya wrote:

wallstreetguy wrote:Expolanka deserves to be around 8-10 because, it is massively over valued.
EPS is 0.29 for the group for 2010.

14/0.29 = 48.27

0.29 x 34.7 (DIV SECTOR) = 10.063

Agreed.

I think there is a mistake in calculating the EPS, I did some workings at the time when they published their prospectus and the recurring annualized EPS came around 60-65 cents, meaning the issue at a PE of 22 times,

Just see the workings below

WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Expo_a11

WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Expo_a11

that post was a hot topic those days and you can find it on http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2882-expolanka-facts-from-prospectus-valuation

Am I making any mistakes there,just to clarify.

uditha9 · 25 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun Jun 05, 2011 12:05 pm

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SanjivFund wrote:what will happen on open day depends..on the selling pressure..long term good investment though..

*this is not a buy recommendation.

Happy Trading

i thi nk around 16-17 range

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WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO?

1 WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 3:12 pm

ansar

2 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 3:35 pm

Antonym

3 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 6:16 pm

smallville

4 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:12 pm

econ

5 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:24 pm

milanka

6 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:41 pm

gayannadeeka

7 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 7:51 pm

pushpakumara

8 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 8:26 pm

rijayasooriya

9 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 9:51 pm

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10 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 9:52 pm

xmart

11 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 10:04 pm

chamith

12 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 10:26 pm

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13 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat May 28, 2011 11:53 pm

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14 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 12:10 am

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15 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 7:32 am

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16 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 7:40 am

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17 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 8:11 am

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18 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 8:18 am

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19 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sun May 29, 2011 9:55 pm

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20 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Mon May 30, 2011 3:48 am

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24 Re: WHAT WOULD BE THE STARTING PRICE OF EXPO? Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:54 pm

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