Market crash imminent

http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_private_credit_soars_to_Rs158bn_amid_money_printing-3-3894-1.html 


Please read above article, Like i said earlier i don't see imminent market crash but i can see slow decline in the index. We are heading into BOP crisis if carry on like this.  Drastic action have to be taken by the govt to improve our fiscal and monetary position.

Sri Lanka private credit soars to Rs158bn amid money printing

ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka's credit from commercial banks to private borrowers hit a never-before-seen high of 158.3 billion rupees doubling from previous high of 87.5 billion rupees hit in September, data showed, amid money printing and dollar inflows.

Credit to private borrowers rose 26.3 percent to 3,146 billion rupees in October from a year earlier.

Credit to the central government rose 32.2 billion rupees to 1,810 billion rupees, up 29.2 percent from a year earlier.

State enterprises borrowed another 5.5 billion rupees during October. State enterprise borrowing were up 31 percent to 535 billion rupees, from a year earlier.

Total credit given by the banking system to private and state borrowers rose to 196 billion rupees in October from an already high of 172.8 billion rupees.

In September and October the Central Bank rejected real bids for auctions of Treasury bills and printed money to repay them, injecting synthetic deposits for banks to give credit, drive imports and put pressure on the currency.

In September data shows that 79 billion rupees was printed. In October, outstanding central bank credit or printed money only went up 15.3 billion rupees, because Treasuries in its portfolio were sold down to sterilize proceeds of a bond sale.

Though it is not clear where most of the credit went, vehicle purchases and import credit may have played a part, analysts say.

By cutting policy rates in April and printing large volumes of money, the Central Bank has fired a consumption and import boom adding to salary increases and energy price cuts by the government which has severely damaged fiscal policy.

In December the Central Bank again did not raise policy rates, but hiked the statutory reserve ratio.

Sri Lanka's rupee has collapsed from 131 to 144 to the US dollar during the year as money was printed in large volumes, but inflation has not picked up to the same pace as global commodity prices were weak.

Bank will have a huge negative impact to their earnings due to increased reserve requirement.

jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.

Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s...

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master...

@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.

I love to see those guys who give so much details not only about Sri lanka also internationally when they want to show how bad the SL economy going to do. Just wonder same guys  posted so many things regarding Sri lanka becoming wonder of Asia about year or so ago?

Beside of that it seems like this is end of the world as they informing us . I hope they already found a bullletproof  bunker as you can order them from US firms. 
I really hope this forum will become a bit more professional than just  a face of propagandas.

jayathu wrote:@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.

well said.. thank you dear..
we are very happy to have people like you in CSE..
don't give up... go on....

omegaplus wrote:I love to see those guys who give so much details not only about Sri lanka also internationally when they want to show how bad the SL economy going to do. Just wonder same guys  posted so many things regarding Sri lanka becoming wonder of Asia about year or so ago?

Beside of that it seems like this is end of the world as they informing us . I hope they already found a bullletproof  bunker as you can order them from US firms. 
I really hope this forum will become a bit more professional than just  a face of propagandas.

Warren Buffett

 
"During the last few months the stock market took a big dip. Just about every stock is down which has caused people to become fearful about playing in the stock market. I don’t know if the stock market is at its lowest and truthfully I don’t really care. I just know that within the next 5 years it should be doing better than it is now and because of this I am being greedy when it comes to playing the stock market."


“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren knows that the stock market is full of folly. He knows that emotions like hope, greed, and fear dictate stock prices rather than logic and value. When people are panicky or fearful (as in a bear market) he takes that chance to buy great companies at cheap prices. As long as he does his research and knows the real value behind a company, he doesn’t get scared of its price fluctuations.

jayathu wrote:@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.

Supergain tax one time only.

Bank and insurance company tax increased but corporate tax reduced to 15% all other companies.So It is beneficial to hundreds of companies in CSE.

When was surplus budget in Srilanka..Was surplus Budget in MARA regime..

Which interest rate increased..

If you want to follow broker instruction to cash out 30% of PF,trade your stock as per their advice.That's your problem.We don't need brokers advice to purchase or sell our stock.

Will MARA and gang support CASINO mixed development..

What Srilankan govt can do for weak China and Russian economy..

What do you want Srilankan govt to do for ISIS...

There are tons of positives in budget,salary increase,oil and gas price reduction,....I will list separately if you want

So Be positive.Market will go up.

By the by thanks for voting Yahapalanaya.

WELL SAID YAHAPALANAYA. AT THE MOMENT PRIORITY IS FOR "BRAPALANAYA".

@yahapalanaya please read what i wrote carefully before arguing. I mentioned "You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline."


First i have mentioned the actions govt took which were harmful to the market confidence, then i pointed the external factors affecting the market.  

Yes but no point in arguing. We all have to plan our strategies as Government and external factors are beyond our control.

Isn't this a crash so far this year. Where are we heading?
Debt crisis...???

Here we Go below 6700!  towards ????

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

Wow!. Good call. Right time Right advise.... Market has fallen more than 300 points from the day of the prediction.

4th Jan 2016 - ASI 6894
12th Jan 2016 (so far) - ASI 6575

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

 most of your predictions were true.

Yahapalanaya wrote:

jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.

Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s...

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master...

Yahapalanya, Hope you have got your money in the bank.

Sstar wrote:

Yahapalanaya wrote:

jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.

Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s...

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master...

Yahapalanya, Hope you have got your money in the bank.

No I still hold my shares.I am an investor not a trader. I have seen up and down of market.

My holdings are with strong fundamentals and those companies running in profits.Suppose you closed those companies and sell it's asset at current price, you would get more than current market price of most of those shares.I am not in credit either.

I am not invested in speculative shares.I didn't ask anybody to buy my shares.My comment on shares always be with back ups such as NAT,EPS,budget proposal,currency fluctuations.

So I need not to promote my shares and misguide anyone.

SStar, you should have directed this coment to those people say buy,buy,buy....good new coming next week.....Share division coming soon....illiquid shares...

Cheers.

Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

What a crash in 14 days!!! I think sentiment indicator Bear and Bull sentient POLL indicator should be reversed.

Can I change the Poll results from Bull to Bear!!!

It is a kind of well planned attack on markets globally. It happened here as well. They will go up strongly again.
 
We will always see bulls and bears in the market. I am always bullish on some sectors, stocks and  some commodities and some currencies and bearish on some stocks, sectors and commodities according to the market situation.  Others wanted to dump USD. Instead I told others not to do that  They wanted to keep Gold, Oil,Rubber, NZD and AUD. Now some are bearish on rupee. I am bullish on rupee too.

Hmm . I said it

After this bear attack, those who picked correct type of stocks globally have become winners. Some are enjoying all time high and 52 weeks high. Even there were some returns (around 10% to 20%) from badly beaten down some resources stocks and oil.  

Lately, we are seeing some strength in Asian currencies and stocks. Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah all touched multi-month highs. Indian rupee also rallied. In addition Yuan, strengthened against the dollar.

Investors are coming back to badly beaten down Asian markets as well.  Many were bearish on oil. Oil cannot stay below $30 for a long period. As I said before it should average $35/38 in 2016/17 while having volatility.

DOW smashed 17,000 on Friday. There were many wining stocks in global market despite bear attack. For example American chickens are having one of the powerful and the longest bull markets despite their flue panic in 2015/16. Some wanted to short their chicken cycle in 2014/15. They missed their all time high gain as well as 52 weeks high gain in 2016. Some are reporting new 52 weeks high as well.

There will be more opportunity for intelligent investors globally as well as in Sri-Lanka despite some gloom predictions by some market participants.

We will find winning stocks in all types of market. Every pull back, market sell-off and correction have created opportunity for some investors in this global bull market.

Peter Lynch’s Principle #4

You can't see the future through a rear-view mirror.

Chapter 2 of the book talks about "weekend worriers", those pundits that always have a thousand reasons why the economy is bad and it is not a good time to invest in stocks. He points out that even he is guilty of this, appearing on the prestigious Barren's panel on the state of the economy to prognosticate and outdo the other panelists on why the market is about to crash. He also notes that none of the people on the Barren's portfolio are anything less than the top experts on investment, managers of the biggest and best funds and all highly respected, obviously even with all the doom-saying they still find some time to invest. Lynch advocates looking at stocks for their own value, not to go in for top-down analysis in some futile attempt to predict the state of the economy and their effects on stock prices. The market crashes when stocks are way over valued, and doesn't usually crash again until stocks have become over valued again. His point comes down to the old saying, "buy in gloom, sell in boom". When the experts are bearish is the time to buy.

Worse is yet to come...

All these days the talk was that government is not taking appropriate measures to fix the goverment finances and hence the market coming down. Now the same people are trying to spread scares stating many taxes are going to come hence the market should go down further.
Now the question is whether actually the current state of affairs is a manipulated context on behalf of group of people or a real fear-driven panic.

The recent decision taken by government to reverse certain changes done in the budget is good for market. 

But that has proved the FM is not fit for job or he had no proper data to estimate the depth of the debt trap we are in.

Hope everyone learns their lessons and market will turn soon given that the fiscal situation will improve.

The government tried many ways to bring the country from debt burden. Unfortunately they couldn't do it because they had to attract investors, subsidies for people, etc.....

The main problem is too much debt and hidden debts too.
At present situation the government should amend the proposal to save the country also they should not hurt the investment as they will hurt the country further investments. There are many ways to make revenue but implementing those ideas would have negative thought by the local citizens to the government. That is the main problem they have at this time. All the fraud politicians are waiting for the time to take the opportunity of government to steal more and more and also avoid any investigation.

Swarnawahini news
 
kiwwa, okkoma tax scene talks presiident Maithree Cancel kara kiyala

USA BOY wrote:Worse is yet to come...

Current government is not concerned about the economy of the country. They are interested in staying in power at any cost. Tax the people, tax the companies and give subsidies and pay government servants their increments. No development.. Dooms day continues..