Concern phase starts, or is it the end?

godswen · 1 Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 4:05 pm

godswen

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Hey!
As tubal said the bear markets go through 3 psychological phases, First I've had no idea on what he really meant but now we're experiencing it, Still I'm confused to decide at which phase we are now in? Certainly not the Denial cuz many have recognized this as a bear market, but is the concern phase starts now, or is it the end? For me it's more like the start of the concern phase as many hang on and others buy as for them it's discounted!!

During this phase the fundamental news significantly worsens and investors realize that that a bear market is in force. This is the phase of concern.During this phase many investors sell, but others hang in, feeling that the bad news is discounted and that a bottom is near.

At this point the market may rally again as many observers feel that the decline has ended and that a new bull market has begun. This rally, also characterized by weak breadth and low volume, subsequently fails and heads down.
-http://www.fxstreet.com

If it the start of the concern phase we might see a rally again, yet small with low volumes.

So what do you guys think? Any ideas on this issue? Do yall think the market is at its highest discount and the bull is waiting?

econ · 2 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 4:42 pm

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after 2010 september, market is having dificulty to increase its upward trend. I think this is because people lack credit,. before the september people continously increase the price level using credit margins. but now without credit they have to settle down with T5 . if sec want to change trend this only thing they have to do is just allow brokers to credit and abolish this T5 rules.
I think this will happen soon because political pressure will be back on SEC .
government want to show stock market performance as one of a economic indicator of the country.

duke · 3 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 4:50 pm

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econ wrote:after 2010 september, market is having dificulty to increase its upward trend. I think this is because people lack credit,. before the september people continously increase the price level using credit margins. but now without credit they have to settle down with T5 . if sec want to change trend this only thing they have to do is just allow brokers to credit and abolish this T5 rules.
I think this will happen soon because political pressure will be back on SEC .
government want to show stock market performance as one of a economic indicator of the country.

If T+5 is removed, that's like drunk driving a car without breaks. If that happens I'd take my money out of the market put them in the bank.

I was wondering how a moderator say something like this.

tubal · 4 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:04 pm

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Nice of godswen to remember my old signature. It used to be 'Bear markets go through three psycological phases denial, concern and capitulation'

While it sounds like a lot of people are concerned the fact that a majority of the dumb money in this forum still believe the BS dished out by broker companies about forced selling tells me that we are still in the denial phase.

Next time your broker tells you that forced selling is bringing the market down ask them which firm is forced selling. I will bet my entire portfolio that they will not answer.

stumpy · 5 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:13 pm

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Tubul the greatest!
+ + +

elephant

- Stumpy

godswen · 6 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:17 pm

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tubal wrote:
While it sounds like a lot of people are concerned the fact that a majority of the dumb money in this forum still believe the BS dished out by broker companies about forced selling tells me that we are still in the denial phase.

Maybe Yes! People still deny the bear! Evil or Very Mad

econ · 7 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:17 pm

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duke wrote:

econ wrote:after 2010 september, market is having dificulty to increase its upward trend. I think this is because people lack credit,. before the september people continously increase the price level using credit margins. but now without credit they have to settle down with T5 . if sec want to change trend this only thing they have to do is just allow brokers to credit and abolish this T5 rules.
I think this will happen soon because political pressure will be back on SEC .
government want to show stock market performance as one of a economic indicator of the country.

If T+5 is removed, that's like drunk driving a car without breaks. If that happens I'd take my money out of the market put them in the bank.

I was wondering how a moderator say something like this.

but the truth is that the so called great stock market performance in 2009 and 2010 could be witnessed mainly due to the broker credits. so withouth credit, market can not perform like it did in 2009 or 2010. but I think current government does not want this to happens. I think government may abolish or revise this new rules.. they want to show off our market is great. also I think EPF and other government funds currently has massive losses investing some of the blue chips at very high prices. for example EPF invested many banks at very high prices compare to current prices.

StocksWatch · 8 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:29 pm

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econ wrote:

duke wrote:

econ wrote:after 2010 september, market is having dificulty to increase its upward trend. I think this is because people lack credit,. before the september people continously increase the price level using credit margins. but now without credit they have to settle down with T5 . if sec want to change trend this only thing they have to do is just allow brokers to credit and abolish this T5 rules.
I think this will happen soon because political pressure will be back on SEC .
government want to show stock market performance as one of a economic indicator of the country.

If T+5 is removed, that's like drunk driving a car without breaks. If that happens I'd take my money out of the market put them in the bank.

I was wondering how a moderator say something like this.

but the truth is that the so called great stock market performance in 2009 and 2010 could be witnessed mainly due to the broker credits. so withouth credit, market can not perform like it did in 2009 or 2010. but I think current government does not want this to happens. I think government may abolish or revise this new rules.. they want to show off our market is great. also I think EPF and other government funds currently has massive losses investing some of the blue chips at very high prices. for example EPF invested many banks at very high prices compare to current prices.

econ, I have few questions for you if you can clarrify for me please.

1. Do you expect the CSE to perform like it did in latter part of 2009 or 2010?
2. And if you do, how long do you think, the market will be able to sustain such an exorbitant growth rate?
3. Are there any other stock markets in the world that has recorded more than 100% growth rate in sucessive years?
4. EPF may have unrealized losses, but do you expect a government to make decisions to cover-up potentail losses incurred by a related body?

Thanks

econ · 9 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:39 pm

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StocksWatch wrote:

econ wrote:

duke wrote:

econ wrote:after 2010 september, market is having dificulty to increase its upward trend. I think this is because people lack credit,. before the september people continously increase the price level using credit margins. but now without credit they have to settle down with T5 . if sec want to change trend this only thing they have to do is just allow brokers to credit and abolish this T5 rules.
I think this will happen soon because political pressure will be back on SEC .
government want to show stock market performance as one of a economic indicator of the country.

If T+5 is removed, that's like drunk driving a car without breaks. If that happens I'd take my money out of the market put them in the bank.

I was wondering how a moderator say something like this.

but the truth is that the so called great stock market performance in 2009 and 2010 could be witnessed mainly due to the broker credits. so withouth credit, market can not perform like it did in 2009 or 2010. but I think current government does not want this to happens. I think government may abolish or revise this new rules.. they want to show off our market is great. also I think EPF and other government funds currently has massive losses investing some of the blue chips at very high prices. for example EPF invested many banks at very high prices compare to current prices.

econ, I have few questions for you if you can clarrify for me please.

1. Do you expect the CSE to perform like it did in latter part of 2009 or 2010?
2. And if you do, how long do you think, the market will be able to sustain such an exorbitant growth rate?
3. Are there any other stock markets in the world that has recorded more than 100% growth rate in sucessive years?
4. EPF may have unrealized losses, but do you expect a government to make decisions to cover-up potentail losses incurred by a related body?

Thanks

1. if credits to broker were there I think it has higher chance to perform atleast over 50% .
2. it may happens untill the bubble burst
3. yes. in japan under the bubble economy stock price index had been growing continuously from around 7000 in early 1980s to 38000 in early 90s. currently trades around 9000 after bubble burst in early 90s.
4. I think it may depend on how big the political pressure on government.
one thing for sure, government do not want to loose the workers confidence that their money is at risk by EPF investing stock market. I hope you remember what was happens to proposed pension fund.

Last edited by econ on Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:48 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : corrections on numbers)

godswen · 10 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:12 pm

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econ wrote:

3. yes. in japan under the bubble economy stock price index had been growing continuously from around 5000 in 1980s to 36000 in early 90s. currently trades around 9000 after bubble burst in early 90s.

In this case, we should be happy for what CSE is since it has proper ups and downs unlike Japan, How would it be to have a fall like 36000 to 9000 if we're not able to bare a fall of 7500 to 6900 (may be couple of 100s less)? Shocked

insidertrader · 11 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:35 pm

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godswen wrote:

econ wrote:

3. yes. in japan under the bubble economy stock price index had been growing continuously from around 5000 in 1980s to 36000 in early 90s. currently trades around 9000 after bubble burst in early 90s.

In this case, we should be happy for what CSE is since it has proper ups and downs unlike Japan, How would it be to have a fall like 36000 to 9000 if we're not able to bare a fall of 7500 to 6900 (may be couple of 100s less)?

Yep, if we didn't have those credit restrictions CSE would have dropped like crazy. It would have been like in Bangladesh but lot worse because CSE went up 100% in an instant in time.

Milindaperera · 12 Re: Concern phase starts, or is it the end? Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:55 am

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We will be able to see a little uptrend before end of July. Bear is working hard, so it needs an interval. If someone wants to collect any share, try to pick it at its rock bottom. Unless you will have to wait another boom to get rid of your loses. Happy trading.