Maharaja's Advice

samaritan wrote:Stock Markets are affected by several variables. It does not operate in a vacuum insulated from the variables. That is the reason that the market value does not always reflect the intrinsic value of a stock. In spite of good quarterly results the stock price may not appreciate. The investor sentiment is a key factor.

The Stock Market is widely accepted as a barometer reflecting a Nation's economic performance. Monetary policy of a nation has a bearing on the Stock Market. The biggest scam in the nation's history the Bond Scam had a direct impact on the Monetary Policy. The interest rates are following the dictates of the Govt despite rising inflation in the backdrop of a depreciating rupee.

The bond scam can be be compared to a massive earth quake in the country's financial system, the tremors of which will be felt by the system for a long time to come. Pundits who give running commentaries like in a horse race and soaked in total ignorance do understand these facts. Good Luck!

Yahapalanaya wrote:Still winning stocks are there.We have to analyse and pick/rotate stocks without blaming government which was selected by people.Let us discuss winning stocks after releasing all Q1 results.

Maharaja wrote:Pensions not paid by government !!!
Government does not have money to even pay pension properly.

so don't think about share market.


Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:Pensions not paid by government !!!
Government does not have money to even pay pension properly.

so don't think about share market.


Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:Samaritan,

Still the market did not react for the economic crash country is experiencing.
Mr Market will react to it, and many shares are going to crash. Even big ones.

Maharaja

samaritan wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Samaritan,

Still the market did not react for the economic crash country is experiencing.
Mr Market will react to it, and many shares are going to crash. Even big ones.

Maharaja

Agree. Also, trying to keep interest rates down is like putting the back on to a chimney to prevent smoke coming out.

Maharaja wrote:Now people will see what Maharaja predicted many months ago !!


Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:Now people will see what Maharaja predicted many months ago !!


Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:

Eugine Fernando wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:I believe my technical analysis. 6077 will test. 

When everybody including asha phillips said 6200 support said I told No, it will break. 
Likewise 6077 will test for sure.


Maharaja

Though I don't like your comments, I salutes to your predictions. So tell us now what next.

Thankyou Mr.Fernando. Today ASI reached my support level. Tomorrow we can see how the 6077 support reacts.

What is next ?
I expect a technical bounce tomorrow. But only a short term bounce. Not a market turnaround. Market is in extreme BEAR market category. ASI direction is 100% downwards. 
SO there will only be short term trading opportunities when market moves sideways for 100-150 points. 

Can ASI break 6077 tomorrow ?
Yes, it can break if selling pressure applied. Bad news is still real selling did not begin. Japanese,Korean,Middle-east & European funds didn't even think to exit the counters. So I expect a technical bounce only due to oversold levels in S&P counters.

When to BUY ?

In this kind of extreme BEAR market I cannot recommend to buy. If we analyse the market, nothing is positive. Earlier company earning were good but now if you analyse financial reports, earnings keep dropping. Main sectors - Banking NPLs higher, Int.expenses higher. Construction sector - SME construction companies closing, No FDIs to start new projects. So in next couple of years company earnings will fall further with interest rates crossing sky high levels.

Politics and CSE ?

As I see, we all must follow a wait and see approach till 2020.
Till 2020 there will be no political change. This government will continue till 2020. 

Who will come to power in 2020 ?

The presidential candidate from Pohottu party will surely win the contest without doubts.

Will CSE rise in 2020 ?

I am doubtful. As soon as Pohottu party wins, the European trade bans will be put. Fish ban will come into effect. Human rights cases against SL will begin once again. So conditions will be worse for the country and CSE after election.
But political stability will be there in the country. New investments will begin to flow.
So there will be mixed effects which we will see. It is too early to predict about about these political effects.


When to enter this bear market ?

After presidential election in 2020 we have to see if the new Pohottu government will actually do a change to the economy. If they are able to bring proper growth to country then CSE will grow.
If they also eat the economy CSE will fall.
SIMPLE AS THAT.

Till then we have to follow a wait and see approach.


What is next support level ?

6000 is the psychological support level. Not a technical support level. 
If 6077 breaks, next is 6020-6023 area support. 
And after 6020-6023, it is down to 5800 support. This is really a strong support. I don't think market needs to test this level soon. May be this month end/ next month it is possible but not this week.


Happy trading,
Maharaja

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Eugine Fernando wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:I believe my technical analysis. 6077 will test. 

When everybody including asha phillips said 6200 support said I told No, it will break. 
Likewise 6077 will test for sure.


Maharaja

Though I don't like your comments, I salutes to your predictions. So tell us now what next.

Thankyou Mr.Fernando. Today ASI reached my support level. Tomorrow we can see how the 6077 support reacts.

What is next ?
I expect a technical bounce tomorrow. But only a short term bounce. Not a market turnaround. Market is in extreme BEAR market category. ASI direction is 100% downwards. 
SO there will only be short term trading opportunities when market moves sideways for 100-150 points. 

Can ASI break 6077 tomorrow ?
Yes, it can break if selling pressure applied. Bad news is still real selling did not begin. Japanese,Korean,Middle-east & European funds didn't even think to exit the counters. So I expect a technical bounce only due to oversold levels in S&P counters.

When to BUY ?

In this kind of extreme BEAR market I cannot recommend to buy. If we analyse the market, nothing is positive. Earlier company earning were good but now if you analyse financial reports, earnings keep dropping. Main sectors - Banking NPLs higher, Int.expenses higher. Construction sector - SME construction companies closing, No FDIs to start new projects. So in next couple of years company earnings will fall further with interest rates crossing sky high levels.

Politics and CSE ?

As I see, we all must follow a wait and see approach till 2020.
Till 2020 there will be no political change. This government will continue till 2020. 

Who will come to power in 2020 ?

The presidential candidate from Pohottu party will surely win the contest without doubts.

Will CSE rise in 2020 ?

I am doubtful. As soon as Pohottu party wins, the European trade bans will be put. Fish ban will come into effect. Human rights cases against SL will begin once again. So conditions will be worse for the country and CSE after election.
But political stability will be there in the country. New investments will begin to flow.
So there will be mixed effects which we will see. It is too early to predict about about these political effects.


When to enter this bear market ?

After presidential election in 2020 we have to see if the new Pohottu government will actually do a change to the economy. If they are able to bring proper growth to country then CSE will grow.
If they also eat the economy CSE will fall.
SIMPLE AS THAT.

Till then we have to follow a wait and see approach.


What is next support level ?

6000 is the psychological support level. Not a technical support level. 
If 6077 breaks, next is 6020-6023 area support. 
And after 6020-6023, it is down to 5800 support. This is really a strong support. I don't think market needs to test this level soon. May be this month end/ next month it is possible but not this week.


Happy trading,
Maharaja

Ruwan if you really believe that the market is going up, best is to do an analysis by you and convince the forum members why you say so with facts and figures or with logical reasonings. 

To be fair by Maharaja so far his predictions on CSE directions are almost accurate. Also he has done the above analysis to substantiate his predictions

Just merely putting postings  saying that market will rise and slandering/ridiculing Maharaja who is making the prediction won't make the market move up.

samaritan wrote:Quote Yahapalanaya:
UNP would easily form government in 2020.So business friendly policies would be implemented and CSE BULL,BULL,BULL.......   

Unquote:
The country has witnessed the business friendly policies of the UNP for the past three and half years.
A change is inevitable whether you like it or not. Its only a matter of time and the fate of United National Plunderers is confirmed. You are day & night dreaming!

ranferdi wrote:

samaritan wrote:Quote Yahapalanaya:
UNP would easily form government in 2020.So business friendly policies would be implemented and CSE BULL,BULL,BULL.......   

Unquote:
The country has witnessed the business friendly policies of the UNP for the past three and half years.
A change is inevitable whether you like it or not. Its only a matter of time and the fate of United National Plunderers is confirmed. You are day & night dreaming!

When the government was taken on 2015 the economy was in stalemate and the load of debt repayments are unbearable from 2015 to 2021, The people may suffer and blame UNP but the situation is similar when we save a blind man from falling from 10ft pit and guide him thorough a different route but he falls onto 1 ft pit and blames.. because he is blind and he doesn't know that he was saved from falling to a 10 ft pit. Most of the country men are blind and blaming the ones who saves them..

ranferdi wrote:

samaritan wrote:Quote Yahapalanaya:
UNP would easily form government in 2020.So business friendly policies would be implemented and CSE BULL,BULL,BULL.......   

Unquote:
The country has witnessed the business friendly policies of the UNP for the past three and half years.
A change is inevitable whether you like it or not. Its only a matter of time and the fate of United National Plunderers is confirmed. You are day & night dreaming!

When the government was taken on 2015 the economy was in stalemate and the load of debt repayments are unbearable from 2015 to 2021, The people may suffer and blame UNP but the situation is similar when we save a blind man from falling from 10ft pit and guide him thorough a different route but he falls onto 1 ft pit and blames.. because he is blind and he doesn't know that he was saved from falling to a 10 ft pit. Most of the country men are blind and blaming the ones who saves them..

Maharaja wrote:ASI will come to 5800 support just like Maharaja told many months ago.


Maharaja

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:ASI will come to 5800 support just like Maharaja told many months ago.


Maharaja

CSE may go down to levels predicted by Maharaja. Many stop investing in stocks when market goes down. It is understandable when you watch the thousands of rupees you have invested come down rapidly.

Some insights that could be helpful to forum members in different situations, especially for those who have additional cash, buying and holding power as a long term investor; 

1. If you want to be a successful investor you must have the courage to cling on to valuable stocks in your portfolio in a declining market like this. 

2. A bear stock market or a crash during an economic down turn of a country, often are excellent opportunities to Buy great companies at super cheap heavily discounted prices, companies which you are sure will survive the country's economic struggle and bounce back even stronger after the economy is turned around. Their weak competitors will perhaps not survive in a struggling macro economy

3. Don't wait for the whole market to come down to Buy stocks. Focus on finding wonderful individual companies with solid fundamentals and Buy them super cheap without waiting for the whole market to crash

DS Wijesinghe wrote:Get lost Ruwan. 

Though you say Maharaja and Wisdom 79 are mentally sick it is clear you are the mentally sick misfortune teller. So far all your predictions have gone wrong which proves that you are the Sumanadasa, the misfortune teller in this Forum  

You are in this forum putting all sorts of posts on average 7-8 a day to protect the poor image of your government and UNP+Maithree.

Your interest is not in making your fellow forum members to invest wisely and become wealthy, but you encourage them to invest blindly in a dangerous market thinking that it will help the market go up and save your Ranil & Maithree

You don't care whether our forum members loose their money or not but only interested to salvage the desperate performances of your political parties in government

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Many stop investing in stocks when market goes down. It is understandable when you watch the thousands of rupees you have invested come down rapidly.

Some insights that could be helpful to forum members in different situations, especially for those who have additional cash, buying and holding power as a long term investor;