ASI heading towards 8700

DeepFuckingValue wrote:

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- OPEC + to reduce crude oil prices to record level since covid 19 Pandemic.
- Banking Crisis re Credit Suisse/Deutsche Bank
- LIOC dropped because of reduction in fuel prices and government limit on new petrol stations which affect their future earnings.
- EXPO dropped because it is simply over valued. Soon be delisted.
- BIL dropped because of the rumour of a rights issue.
- Rupee is likely to be devalued against USD further due to strengthening of USD and devaluation of Euro
- Tourist Arrivals to fall short of 1 mn target. Future Bookings not adequate.
- TB Rates likely to reach 40% by December 2022. IMF will not allow money printing and CBSL will have to resort to money market operations to raise funds to meet expenses during high cost December season.

Market is going to be red.  
ASI Technically crossed the 200 day Moving Averages yesterday generating a downward trend.
Heading towards 8700.

මේ සතියේ ASPI down කරලා එකතු කරන් next week උඩ යවයි වගේ 

Sri Lanka T-bond yields ease despite debt haircut threats

Yields in Sri Lanka’s Treasury bonds eased on Monday (03) in moderate trade as investors bought the risk-free fixed assets despite the possible risk of local debt restructuring leading to a haircut, dealers said.

A bond maturing on 01.07.2032 ended at 29.50/90 percent on Monday, easing from Friday’s close of 29.80/30.00 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.06.2025 closed at 30.75/90 percent, down from previous day’s close of 30.95/31.05 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.01.2028 closed at 30.80/90 percent, down from Friday’s close of 31.12/20 percent.

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-t-bond-yields-ease-despite-debt-haircut-threats-100679/

Beyondsenses wrote:

DeepFuckingValue wrote:

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- OPEC + to reduce crude oil prices to record level since covid 19 Pandemic.
- Banking Crisis re Credit Suisse/Deutsche Bank
- LIOC dropped because of reduction in fuel prices and government limit on new petrol stations which affect their future earnings.
- EXPO dropped because it is simply over valued. Soon be delisted.
- BIL dropped because of the rumour of a rights issue.
- Rupee is likely to be devalued against USD further due to strengthening of USD and devaluation of Euro
- Tourist Arrivals to fall short of 1 mn target. Future Bookings not adequate.
- TB Rates likely to reach 40% by December 2022. IMF will not allow money printing and CBSL will have to resort to money market operations to raise funds to meet expenses during high cost December season.

Market is going to be red.  
ASI Technically crossed the 200 day Moving Averages yesterday generating a downward trend.
Heading towards 8700.

මේ සතියේ ASPI down කරලා එකතු කරන් next week උඩ යවයි වගේ 

No need to wait till next week tomorrow will be a green day

Another reason is MANIPULA0RS AND CROOKS ARE MORE STRONG THAN SEC, CSE MANAGEMENT

and genuine investors

Riz123 wrote:

Beyondsenses wrote:

DeepFuckingValue wrote:

Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize

- OPEC + to reduce crude oil prices to record level since covid 19 Pandemic.
- Banking Crisis re Credit Suisse/Deutsche Bank
- LIOC dropped because of reduction in fuel prices and government limit on new petrol stations which affect their future earnings.
- EXPO dropped because it is simply over valued. Soon be delisted.
- BIL dropped because of the rumour of a rights issue.
- Rupee is likely to be devalued against USD further due to strengthening of USD and devaluation of Euro
- Tourist Arrivals to fall short of 1 mn target. Future Bookings not adequate.
- TB Rates likely to reach 40% by December 2022. IMF will not allow money printing and CBSL will have to resort to money market operations to raise funds to meet expenses during high cost December season.

Market is going to be red.  
ASI Technically crossed the 200 day Moving Averages yesterday generating a downward trend.
Heading towards 8700.

මේ සතියේ ASPI down කරලා එකතු කරන් next week උඩ යවයි වගේ 

No need to wait till next week tomorrow will be a green day

Will see tommorow

Sri Lanka T-bond yields down; rupee guidance peg unchanged
Yields in Sri Lanka’s Treasury bonds fell on Tuesday (04) in active trade while T-bill continued to remain unquoted, dealers said.

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-t-bond-yields-down-rupee-guidance-peg-unchanged-100713/

ASI heading towards 8700
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මහ බැංකුවේ රාජ්‍ය දෙපාර්තමේන්තුව විසින් අද (05) දින කැඳවන ලද භාණ්ඩාගාර බිල්පත් වෙන්දේසියේ දී දින 91 බිල්පත් පොලිය පසුගිය සතියේ වාර්තා වූ 31.94% සිට මෙම සතියේ වෙන්දේසියේ දී 32.34% ක් දක්වා වැඩි වී ඇත.



දින 91 බිල්පත් පොලිය 32% පනී
October, 5, 2022

ශ්‍රී ලංකා මහ බැංකුවේ රාජ්‍ය දෙපාර්තමේන්තුව විසින් අද (05) දින කැඳවන ලද භාණ්ඩාගාර බිල්පත් වෙන්දේසියේ දී රු. මිලියන 85,000 ක බිල්පත් ප්‍රමාණයක් නිකුත් කිරීමට කටයුතු කර තිබේ.

මෙහිදී දින 91 බිල්පත් පොලිය පසුගිය සතියේ වාර්තා වූ 31.94% සිට මෙම සතියේ වෙන්දේසියේ දී 32.34% ක් දක්වා වැඩි වී ඇති අතර එම කාණ්ඩය යටතේ රු. මිලියන 76,421 ක ලංසු අනුමත කර ඇත.

මීට අමතරව දින 182 බිල්පත් පොලිය 30.59% සිට 30.61% දක්වා සුළු වශයෙන් ඉහළ ගොස් ඇති අතර දින 364 බිල්පත් පොලිය 29.85% සිට 29.75% දක්වා පහළ ගොස් තිබේ.

එම කාණ්ඩ දෙක සඳහා පිළිවෙලින් රු. මිලියන 4,226 ක් හා රු. මිලියන 4,353 ක් වශයෙන් ලංසු අනුමත කර තිබුණි.

Sri Lanka expects inflation to slow, rates unchanged

Sri Lanka is maintaining current policy rates with inflation (the rate of increase in prices) expected to ease from the next few months, the Central Bank said.
https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-expects-inflation-to-slow-rates-unchanged-100746/

Will Central Bank press conference and statement of the president at the parliament

effect stock market from tomorrow ?

Sri Lanka revises tourism targets for 2022 from one million arrivals to 800,000

- Expected tourist numbers drops to 800,000 from one million
- Expected revenue drops to 1.7 billion USD from 1.8 billion USD

Sri Lanka has revised tourist arrival expectations for 2022 and also lowered revenue targets for the year, Minister of Tourism Harin Fernando said.

Total tourist arrivals for the year so far till end September is roughly 526,000 and generated only around 829 million US dollars in revenue.

Tourism authorities had anticipated one million arrivals generating a revenue of 1.8 billion dollars.

“As per the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Board (SLTDB) president, we are expecting another 300,000 tourists for the next three months,” Minister Fernando said speaking to reporters on Thursday October 06 at a press briefing on a tourism promotion programme in India.

“September is a low tourist arrival month for Sri Lanka. It usually picks up in mid-October and goes till January next year.

“In terms of arrivals, we are eager to get up to one million, but the target expectation is around 800-850,000 with a revenue target of around 1.7 billion US dollars,” he said.

Sri Lanka’s tourism sector, which was affected by a series of events since 2019 starting with the Easter Sunday bombings, was further disrupted due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The sector’s woes have extended to late 2022 due to travel restrictions imposed by various countries after a period of unrest and a prevailing currency crisis, significantly impacting  inbound and outbound tourism.

Official data showed that tourist numbers which exceeded more than 100,000 in March has come down to around 29,000 due to the unstable situation in the country.

“The target is a bit high, but if you aim at a higher amount you will at least end up closer to it,” said Fernando.

The minister claimed that “negative” news coverage by foreign media has impacted the image of the island, resulting in many potential inbound tourists from changing their travel plans.

Meanwhile, Suren Ediriweera, the President of the Sri Lanka Inbound Tour Operators Association said travel agents in Europe have told Sri Lanka to expect an increase in bookings in the coming months with the start of the winter season.

“For example, in Switzerland, it is starting to get cold. So our agents have told us to be ready for a boom in tourist bookings,” said Ediriweera.

“November to April is a welcome time for European travelers in Sri Lanka. Germany and Switzerland in particular have asked us to be vigilant in that regard,” he said. (Colombo/Oct06/2022)

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-revises-tourism-targets-for-2022-from-one-million-arrivals-to-800000-100794/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Sri Lanka’s state debt office raises less-than required money via T-bills at expensive rates




Wednesday October 12, 2022 9:52 pm

• Yield in 6-month T-bills jumps 192 basis points
  
• The debt office only raised 67% of the total required funds via the auction
  
• Most money was borrowed via 3month T-bills
  

[size=18]ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka raised less-than-required 60.2 billion rupees via Treasury bills at a weekly auction on Wednesday (12) with most of the money came from 3-month T-bills at a higher borrowing cost, data from the state debt office showed.
Yields in both 3-month and 6-month T-bill rose more than 70 basis points at the auction while 12-month T-bill yield edged down.
The debt office raised 52 billion rupees worth via 3-month T-bills at 33.05 percent, 71 basis points higher than the previous week, after offering 40 billion rupees. Most primary dealers has offered to this paper.
Only 7.7 billion rupees was raised via 6-month T-bills at 32.53 percent, 192 basis points higher than the last week’s yield, after the debt office received 25 billion rupees.

Only 511 million rupees was borrowed from 12-month T-bills at 29.60 percent, 15 basis points lower than the last week after offering 25 billion rupees.
The debt office wanted to raise 90 billion rupees via the T-bills,  but was able to borrow only 60.3 billion through the auction. (Colombo/Oct 11/2022)[/size]

High TB/Bond yield and its impact on the CSE
Central Bank of Sri Lanka on 12 October 2022 increased Treasury Bill rates to record level of 33% p.a for the first time in the history. The more popular 90 day maturity TB recorded the highest increase of 190 basis points on the back of CBSL Governors controversial statement that country needs to control inflation more importantly than the interest rates sending shock waves to the investors and crashing the Colombo Stock Markets, All share Index (ASPI) more than 10% within a week. 

Low inflation first, interest rate later: CBSL
https://www.ft.lk/top-story/Low-inflation-first-interest-rate-later-CBSL/26-740752


Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize


The CBSL Governors statement is a clear indication that TB rates will be further increased during next 3 months to curtail inflation. Analyst expects rates to reach high of 40% by December 2022 whilst some investors fear Sri Lanka's interest rate would reach as high as 70% as in Argentina subsequent to IMF supervision.

Argentina continues rate rises
https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-decisions/7953115/argentina-continues-raising-interest-rates



Seasonal demand for goods and services and resultant demand pull inflation of key food and services from November to January 2023 is likely to be curtailed through further increase in interest rates by CBSL. Further due to expected rise in crude oil prices and strengthening of the US dollar with Fed planning to raise rates, there is a possibility of Sri Lankan rupee further depreciating against the US Dollar.

In these circumstances stock market is likely remain stagnant and depressed until December 2022.

Market reached ASPI 8700 as predicted prior to its temporary bounce back.

We can't expect favorable stock market until settlement of present economic problems

But intelligent investors may use fluctuation of prices AND make money

BE CAREFUL

DeepFuckingValue wrote:Market reached ASPI 8700 as predicted prior to its temporary bounce back.

What next?

glad wrote:

DeepFuckingValue wrote:Market reached ASPI 8700 as predicted prior to its temporary bounce back.

What next?

We can expect some buying from tomorrow onwards (hopefully). By the way, It mainly depends on LIOC and EXPO movement. I believe that we might be able to witness some green days starting next week onwards.

sojsilva wrote:

glad wrote:

DeepFuckingValue wrote:Market reached ASPI 8700 as predicted prior to its temporary bounce back.

What next?

We can expect some buying from tomorrow onwards (hopefully). By the way, It mainly depends on LIOC and EXPO movement. I believe that we might be able to witness some green days starting next week onwards.

Thanks, hope for the best

Will 22  amendment effect stock market from next Monday ?

yp it will have a super positive effect since its one condition (approving 22nd amendment) to get IMF Loan.so we are on correct path to get the loan

SAGA wrote:yp it will have a super positive effect since its one condition (approving 22nd amendment) to get IMF Loan.so we are on correct path to get the loan

agreed
Next step would be successful restructuring of SOEs.