what about PAP.N ?

share ur valuable thoughts.

tkc wrote:share ur valuable thoughts.

Hi tkc....

There will be upward momentum once the financial results out, I think it will hit in the range of Rs.4.80 and 5.00 and will stagnant in the range Rs.4.80

when will look at it earnings

Pan Asian Power - For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----70,000,000

Total -----131,580,401

Issued qty ------500,000,000

Annualized EPS ------ Rs.0.26

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

PE ------- Only 16 times

However in bloomberg has not adjusted Manelwala earnings and not annualised.. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PAP:SL)

When you look at the other companies in power sector

VLL- 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VLL:SL
HPWR -19 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPWR:SL
VPEL - 17 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VPEL:SL
HPFL - 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPFL:SL

when HPWR was Rs.30 level I was telling in Investnow PAP and HPWR are the undervalued stock in the sectors. Now HPWR as i expected it hit rs.42 level...

My prediction is PAP will hit in the Range of Rs.5.20 5.50 once they release it financial and coming quarters..

Happy Trading..

thnx!! seyon

i'm holding hell tons of PAP. so my post may be look like bias.

considering PAP plant at rathnapura, they manage to produce 70 Mn profit for last year. consider PAP plant is only 2 MW plant with 60% plant factor.

then they acquired MHPL plant which is 2.5 MW. newly established plant. PAP is owning 100% of MHPL. the plant is operating around 30~40% plant factor.

with consolidate group earnings PAP can easily produce at least 100 Mn profit for this year. it is 0.5 Annualized EPS. with average PE of 15 they can reach 7.5 Rs. with minimum PER of 12 they can reach 6 Rs. with sector PE it can pass 10.

Not in short run. but in mid or long run.

when can we have their reports ?

tkc wrote:when can we have their reports ?

Hi we would be able to see its financial....

xmart wrote:i'm holding hell tons of PAP. so my post may be look like bias.

considering PAP plant at rathnapura, they manage to produce 70 Mn profit for last year. consider PAP plant is only 2 MW plant with 60% plant factor.

then they acquired MHPL plant which is 2.5 MW. newly established plant. PAP is owning 100% of MHPL. the plant is operating around 30~40% plant factor.

with consolidate group earnings PAP can easily produce at least 100 Mn profit for this year. it is 0.5 Annualized EPS. with average PE of 15 they can reach 7.5 Rs. with minimum PER of 12 they can reach 6 Rs. with sector PE it can pass 10.

Not in short run. but in mid or long run.

To have EPS of Rs0.50, PAP should reports earning of Rs 250 mn? Further, I wonder what could be the impact of heavy rains prevailed in the last quarter - can be positive or negative?

To have EPS of Rs0.50, PAP should reports earning of Rs 250 mn? Further, I wonder what could be the impact of heavy rains prevailed in the last quarter - can be positive or negative?

since issued qty is 200 Mn shares, i mistakenly use this figure. thanks for figuring out. well even eps is wrong my net profit target is right. ok! but to calculate EPS, lanka securities used 200 Mn. if this is wrong it is gonna be costly mistaken by myself.

can anybody elaborate issued qty is whether 200 Mn or 500 Mn. if 500 Mn what happened to rest of 300 Mn shares?

500mn according to CDAX

mono wrote:500mn according to CDAX

then where is the hell other 300 Mn shares. IPO is for 200 Mn shares.

one director sold @3.70, http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/4511294383616_1040.pdf

one director bought @4.90,
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/9281295605188_1040.pdf

who is the clever guy ?
but bought qty is higher than sold one.....

tkc wrote:who is the clever guy ?
but bought qty is higher than sold one.....

ya......i think the buyer.....i sold my PAP@4.2.........
It may break soon.....have to watch quarterly results of this quarter...

now i know why pps neglect PAP. this is due to this 500Mn vs 200 Mn conflict. i was in 200 Mn mode and wondering why people didn't recognize this. some one in 500 Mn side and wondering why people collecting this and everyday more than 2 Mn volume tradings.

but some broker firms also use 200 Mn thing at their researches. but as seyon said, even at 500 Mn case i'm safe. otherwise this will be the most costly mistake done by me.

Hope it ll have a good future
thnx!! guyz

I agree with you seyon.

PAP will definitely will go up. from the outset it is undervalued.

More importantly they have minimal liabilities so they will definitely perform well.

Their earnings should go up in the next Q.

I have collected @4.0 -4.10today.

This is a post I made sometime back on PAP

World is rapidly moving towards renewable energy sources from the current high usage of non renewable energy sources such as fossil fuels (coal and oil) and nuclear power. This is mainly due to the rapid depletion of the non renewable sources and not to forget the adverse environmental impact from these sources. Some of the main renewable energy sources in use are hydro / solar / wind and tidal. Out of all the above sources hydro seems to be the most effective and efficient renewable energy source (e.g.: hydro power is the only renewable energy source which will provide a consistent load factor). So there is no doubt about the future potential of the world hydro power industry.

If we scrutinize all the power stocks in CSE I believe #PAP is the most attractive stock out of the lot. Some of the factors to consider 1) Small cap with aggressive expansion plans 2) Strong balance sheet (free of debt) 3) Very high ROE 4) Attractive P/E 5) Impressive plant factor (60%) 6) Future plans to expand its operations in other countries in the region.

I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...?

npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...?

Yes!! Really confused....

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331300446799_1040.pdf - According to this Announcement 60 Million Shares represent 12%, that mean total issue quantity 500 Million Shares

Gaja wrote:http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2331300446799_1040.pdf - According to this Announcement 60 Million Shares represent 12%, that mean total issue quantity 500 Million Shares

Do we know who is the seller?

npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...?

Some one bought 60 million shares at 4.5. that's not a promotion it's a take over.

mono wrote:

npc86 wrote:I also exit from this PAP @4.3 before past weeks And here I think some persons promoting this artificially; may be I am wrong. And 2 directors deals have a considerable difference.
But friends do you have any news (or about Q1 report)...?

Some one bought 60 million shares at 4.5. that's not a promotion it's a take over.

@npc86,
270 Mn cost promotion????. why those ppl thinking like this?
if something goes opposite with their intention, called it promotion or manipulation.
mind your language friend.

We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

smallville wrote:We only have data till 30th Sep.. and rains hit the country in Nov-Dec period and then here and there intermittently too..
Let me take Seyon's hard work for this analysis..These financials will be the base..

PAP (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala (6 Months) ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

Starting of tourists season, worldcup, would've increased the power consumption in country,
in line with this a revenue growth could easily be expected from power companies.
On that basis if we assume an increase in revenue for the next 2 qrts, due to last rainy season,
again there could possible be a hindrance to the expected growth. Therefore; both these factors could balance the revenue at same level
So my openion is; its safe to assume at least revenue levels would remain same for the last 6 months too.
So I'm adjusting the orinigal expected value with the new value;

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----51,580,401

Total -----103,160,802

Issued qty ------500,000,000
Annualized EPS - 131580401/500000000 = 0.21

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

Trading at a PE of - 4.20/0.21 = 20

P&E sector PE - 55.90

I persoally think this value is too high for the sector hence lets take half of it to be in safe side, say 28;
Hence an anticipated price level could be 28*0.21 = 5.88

So if the current weather conditions and industry out look remains same,
I think Seyon's prediction of price levels 5.20 - 5.50 is feasible in near future..

For your analysis pls..

Thanks smallville for the analysis... did u analyze the dividend payout... It is about 50%

I think they will come out with same ratio.... I am waiting for their financial...

Happy Trading..