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ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

SRI LANKA TOURISM

IMPORT INDUSTRY OF SRI LANKA

EXPORT INDUSTRY OF SRI LANKA

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MOVEMENT

INTEREST RATE MOVEMENT

INFLATION RATE

FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

COLOMBO STOCK MARKET

POLITICAL OUTLOOK OF SRI LANKA




GDP PER CAPITA INCOME



The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Sri Lanka was last recorded at 3936.50 US dollars in 2018. The GDP per Capita in Sri Lanka is equivalent to 31 percent of the world's average. Sri Lanka GDP per capita - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on March of 2020. GDP per capita in Sri Lanka is expected to reach 4250.00 USD by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka GDP per capita is projected to trend around 4358.00 USD in 2021 and 4497.00 USD in 2022, according to our econometric models.Read & Comment


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INFLATION



The inflation rate in Sri Lanka was recorded at 6.20 percent in February of 2020. Sri Lanka Inflation Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2020. Inflation Rate in Sri Lanka is expected to be 6.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in Sri Lanka to stand at 4.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 4.70 percent in 2021 and 6.00 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models. Read & Comment


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EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT



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IMPORTS



Imports rose 2.9 percent year-on-year to USD 1,784 million in December of 2019, driven by higher purchases of consumer (9.5 percent) and investment goods (10.5 percent). In contrast, exports of intermediate goods declined 2.7 percent. Sri Lanka Imports - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on March of 2020. Imports in Sri Lanka is expected to be 2050.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Imports in Sri Lanka to stand at 1890.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Imports is projected to trend around 1950.00 USD Million in 2021, according to our econometric models.Read & Comment


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GOLD RESERVES



Gold Reserves in Sri Lanka decreased to 19.66 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2019 from 19.89 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2019. Sri Lanka Gold Reserves - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on March of 2020. Read & Comment


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TEA PRICES



Tea increased 0.75 USD/Kgs or 30.00% since the beginning of 2020, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Tea is expected to trade at 2.95 USD/Kgs by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2.19 in 12 months time. Read & Comment

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CAR REGISTRATIONS


Car Registrations in Sri Lanka decreased to 2999 in November from 3499 in October of 2019. Car Registrations in Sri Lanka is expected to be 4500.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Car Registrations in Sri Lanka to stand at 5690.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Car Registrations is projected to trend around 5690.00 in 2021 and 6690.00 in 2022, according to our econometric models. Read & Comment

සිංහල පරිවර්තනය
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)



The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Sri Lanka was worth 91 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the Central Bank. The GDP value of Sri Lanka represents 0.08 percent of the world economy. Sri Lanka GDP - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on March of 2020. GDP in Sri Lanka is expected to reach 95.00 USD Billion by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka GDP is projected to trend around 98.00 USD Billion in 2021 and 101.00 USD Billion in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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FOREGIEN EXCHANGE RESERVES




Foreign Exchange Reserves in Sri Lanka increased to 1388108 LKR Million in December from 1356934 LKR Million in November of 2019. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Sri Lanka is expected to be 1387640.00 LKR Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Foreign Exchange Reserves in Sri Lanka to stand at 1447174.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Foreign Exchange Reserves is projected to trend around 1526552.00 LKR Million in 2021 and 1605930.00 LKR Million in 2022, according to our econometric models. Read & Comment



BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES




Sri Lanka's central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 6.25% at an emergency March meeting, in a bid to support economic activity following the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Central Bank also noted that is working closely with the government to ensure coordinated fiscal and monetary policy responses to mitigate the economic impact of the virus. The Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) was also cut to 7.25%. Sri Lanka Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2020. Read & Comment




COLOMBO STOCK MARKET



The Sri Lanka Stock Market (CSE All Share) is expected to trade at 4501.23 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4296.42 in 12 months time.

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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS




Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka increased by 140 USD Million in the third quarter of 2019. Sri Lanka Foreign Direct Investment - Net Inflows - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on March of 2020. Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka is expected to be 210.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Foreign Direct Investment in Sri Lanka to stand at 550.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Foreign Direct Investment - Net Inflows is projected to trend around 550.00 USD Million in 2021 and 820.00 USD Million in 2022, according to our econometric models. Read & Comment





FOREIGN REMITTANCES



In Sri Lanka, Remittances refers to inflows of migrants’ and short-term employee income transfers (personal remittances). Remittances in Sri Lanka decreased to 515.30 USD Million in November from 607 USD Million in October of 2019. Sri Lanka Remittances - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on March of 2020. Remittances in Sri Lanka is expected to be 620.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Remittances in Sri Lanka to stand at 750.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Remittances is projected to trend around 750.00 USD Million in 2021, according to our econometric models. Read & Comment




UNEMPLOYMENT RATE



Unemployment Rate in Sri Lanka increased to 5.10 percent in the third quarter of 2019 from 4.90 percent in the second quarter of 2019. Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2020. Read & Comment



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CRUDE OIL




Brent crude oil is expected to trade at 26.00 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 22.49 in 12 months time. Read & Comment

Sri Lankan Economy - "Post-Covid19"

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:53 pm by Quibit

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Ajith Nivard Cabraal

"කොවිඩ්-19 ව්‍යසනයට පසු" වකවානුව සඳහා නව ගෝලීය ආර්ථික පදනමක් සහ ව්‍යුහයක් සකස් කොට ගොඩනැගීමට අවශ්‍ය වනු ඇත.
එම ව්‍යසනයෙන් මතුවන අභියෝගවලට සහ ප්‍රශ්න වලට …

Comments: 5

ANNUAL GDP GROWTH RATE




The Sri Lanka economy advanced 2.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, up from a revised 1.5 percent in the prior period. The growth was mainly boosted by an increase in services (2.8 percent compared to 1.6 percent in Q2), particularly wholesale and retail trade (2.1 percent vs 1.2 percent) and industrial activities (3.3 percent vs 1.3 percent). On the other hand, agriculture, forestry and fishing output slowed (0.4 percent vs 0.7 percent). Sri Lanka GDP Annual Growth Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2020. Read & Comment



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GOVERNMENT DEBT



Government Debt in Sri Lanka increased to 12874786 LKR Million in the third quarter of 2019 from 12599843 LKR Million in the second quarter of 2019. Government Debt in Sri Lanka is expected to be 13421246.00 LKR Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Government Debt in Sri Lanka to stand at 14235609.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Government Debt is projected to trend around 15592881.00 LKR Million in 2021 and 16410260.00 LKR Million in 2022, according to our econometric models.

Read & Comment


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BALANCE OF TRADE



Sri Lanka's trade deficit increased to USD 784 million in December of 2019 from USD 701 million in the same month of the previous year. Exports dropped 3.2 percent to USD 1,000 million, due to lower shipments of industrial products (-1.8 percent), particularly textiles and garments (-2.1 percent) and rubber products (-4.4 percent); and agricultural products (-9.8 percent), mainly tea (-9.6 percent). On the other hand, exports of mineral products advanced 67.7 percent. Meantime, imports rose 2.9 percent to USD 1,784 million, driven by higher purchases of consumer (9.5 percent) and investment goods (10.5 percent). In contrast, exports of intermediate goods declined 2.7 percent. Considering full 2019, the country’s trade gap narrowed to USD 7.99 billion from USD 10.34 billion in 2018. Read & Comment


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PRIME LENDING RATES



Bank Lending Rate in Sri Lanka decreased to 9.68 percent in January from 9.74 percent in December of 2019. Bank Lending Rate in Sri Lanka is expected to be 9.68 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Bank Lending Rate in Sri Lanka to stand at 9.43 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Prime Lending Rate is projected to trend around 9.43 percent in 2021, according to our econometric models.Read & Comment


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EXPORTS




Exports from Sri Lank dropped 3.2 percent year-on-year to USD 1,000 million in December of 2019, due to lower shipments of industrial products (-1.8 percent), particularly textiles and garments (-2.1 percent) and rubber products (-4.4 percent); and agricultural products (-9.8 percent), mainly tea (-9.6 percent). On the other hand, exports of mineral products advanced 67.7 percent. Exports in Sri Lanka is expected to be 1210.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Exports in Sri Lanka to stand at 1280.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Sri Lanka Exports is projected to trend around 1340.00 USD Million in 2021, according to our econometric models.Read & Comment


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TOURIST ARRIVALS




The number of tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka plunged 17.7 percent year-on-year to 207,507 in February 2020, after a 6.5 percent drop in the previous month. It was the eleventh consecutive monthly fall in tourist arrivals, and the steepest drop since October last year, following the COVID-19 outbreak. Visitors from Europe became the largest source of tourist to Sri Lanka with 60.1% of total arrivals, while that of Asia Pacific accounted 31.2% of total arrivals. Among major sources of tourist traffic to Sri Lanka, the number of visitors fell the most from the China (-92.5% to 2,096), the UK (-11.4% to 26,348), Germany (-5% to 16,405) and France (-33.9% to 11,430). China has been dropped from the top ten tourist generating market of Sri Lanka for first time since 2012. Considering the first two months of the year, the visitor tumbled 12.2% from the same period 2019. Read & Comment


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RUBBER PRICES



Natural rubber prices have been under pressure in March, trading around 160 PY/KG, on worries about sluggish growth in rubber demand in China, the largest rubber consumer, as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. On the supply side, a shortfall in rubber production in the peak harvest months of December and January following a fungal disease through plantations in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia drove prices to a six-month high of 181 PY/KG in February Read & Comment
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