Best Short and Medium Term stocks

Hi guys in you opinion what are the best short( in 1 months time) and medium term( End of 2011) stocks in the market? Please give reasoning why you think this is and and shorten the list of companies to only 2 ( Don't want ppl to just promote there portfolio).

My picks,
Short Term:-
CFVF :- As any decent investor know the CFVF gave a Rs15 dividend( Rs5 for current share after split) and they date of dividend id normally around mid February for the company. Also the company has performed extremely well for the share price with such low PE ( even without the tax reversal earnings) and from the sale of LAMB sale gained quite a good earning for the last quarter. As CSEC going for a Right issue there is a extremely high chance the CFVF will be going for at least Rs2-5 dividend.
MAl.X :- Compared with Mal.N its now trading at quite a low price after getting really close to catching up few weeks ago. Also the share quantity of MAL.X is really low at the moment. Also as its a low valued counter with any decent MAL result (really high chance considering the amount of rubber they have) it will fly imo. I still do not have this and 1st thing I intend to buy on Monday.

Medium Term:-
KGAL:- The Largest Rubber plantation in Sri Lanka with best results and with the best growth prospect. We can easily expect over Rs12 Earnings per share for the last quarters earnings and most probably more this quarter the way rubber prices keep sky rocketing. ( Rs 655 this week compared to Rs 600 2 weeks ago). Also they are very few if not the the only plantation that have already started re plantation. Only reason it is trading at such a discount is its current high price discouraging the retailers.
CDB:- Company has declared EPS for quarter of Rs. 5.31 (Annualized EPS 21.24). EPS of Rs 2.4 without mark to mark evaluation. The EPS for the 3 stands as Rs. 0.87, 1.65, 2.4 over 50% growth quarterly to quarterly with the least EPS accounted. The company has a Forward PE of 80/9.6= 7.7. The sector PE is around 20 btw. This means the PEG Ratio for company stands at a mere 0.154 where 1 is the in line with market. So a HUGE undervalued share.

Why do you keep CDB in medium term ( till the end of 2011) .. As I would see from your calculations, this should be trading above Rs 100/= now.

What are the factor you have seen in CDB causing investors are not profitable in short term..
In another term , is it not yet attracted by reputed investors?

There are news in everywhere that based on latest CDB financial reports .

Read the CDB financials carefully, most of thier income comes under non operating profits. it's unlikely they will be able to show this level of EPS again. the same goes with CFVF

Yes CFVF is very promising ..it has lot of room to increase..

@ mono,
Is it the increase of Other Income category by 448% you mean? Pls explain.

dhamm wrote:@ mono,
Is it the increase of Other Income category by 448% you mean? Pls explain.

yeah. they have 250 odd million in that catagory. I highly doubt they can repeat that every quarter or even every year

mono wrote:Read the CDB financials carefully, most of thier income comes under non operating profits. it's unlikely they will be able to show this level of EPS again. the same goes with CFVF

Can you please read what I have written than spewing stupid crap? I already discounted those numbers. Please learn to read a report or read the whole thing and comment. Even without those numbers they are doing great as I have pointed out. Can the rest of you share your views on the companies you think also plz.

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:Read the CDB financials carefully, most of thier income comes under non operating profits. it's unlikely they will be able to show this level of EPS again. the same goes with CFVF

Can you please read what I have written than spewing stupid crap? I already discounted those numbers. Please learn to read a report or read the whole thing and comment. Even without those numbers they are doing great as I have pointed out. Can the rest of you share your views on the companies you think also plz.

lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

@ mono, got it. Thanks for info

dhamm wrote:@ mono, got it. Thanks for info

no worries. maybe rajitha has a point when he says the company has a forward PE 9.6 and that it's sustainable. but i can't see it. I'd be glad if he can point it out more clearly so that people like myself can understand.

Also i'd stay away from MAL.X. it's way too illiquid that's why it's trading at a large discount from MAL. So i can't expect it to move up rapidly and if something goes wrong you'll find it difficult to get buyers.

CFVF is also little dodgy in my book. they earn 5 rupees one quarter and .30 then next 3. but there is this expectation of large dividend that has been around since nov. if that works out there will be nice gain in this share.

Buy KGAL & NAMU if you're looking at plantations. Even MAL.N is good.

Mono,
The thing is even if one take the off gains and tax reversal CFVF is still has about 4 EPS annualized. So the share can be worth around RS 40 atleast presently. But it has a weird behavior.

A m not making a buy recommedation as you pointed out it a bit dodgy. But presently with expected earning from LAMB sale this quarter should be decent and some dividend is what we expect.


BTW, do you still have CFVF with you are gave it up.

slstock wrote:Mono,
The thing is even if one take the off gains and tax reversal CFVF is still has about 4 EPS annualized. So the share can be worth around RS 40 atleast presently. But it has a weird behavior.

A m not making a buy recommedation as you pointed out it a bit dodgy. But presently with expected earning from LAMB sale this quarter should be decent and some dividend is what we expect.


BTW, do you still have CFVF with you are gave it up.

I'm looking to buy back again. I'm not going to buy as many as I bought last time around

Yes CFVF is still at discounted price in financial sector.. EPS around 4 excluding tax reversal so , even if take PER for financial sector 10 it can trade at least 40.

What about CRL ( softlogic finance) ? seems to me it can also go up with new management ..

mono wrote:
lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

Forward EPS of Rs. 9.6= 2.4*4 for annualized. The value Rs 2.4 is the Earnings for the quarter without the mark to mark evaluation and stuff, after getting reduced from Rs. 5.31 . About the CFVF already SLStock gave an explanation. It would be a great idea if people refrain from giving advice to rest if they do not have any understanding about the matter or just doing it on just speculation please say it . Just because there are some added earning than the core business does not mean 100% of the earnings come from added earnings. Regarding MAl.X as I said the reason it can shoot a bit high is ofc because its illiquid and in CSE that means when a upward movement starts it goes up way more than the liquid share. ( LGL.X, COCO.X )

Also as I said its a matter for discussion but I still can only see myself from posting about companies. Can some of you also please contribute without some data to back up.

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

Forward EPS of Rs. 9.6= 2.4*4 for annualized. The value Rs 2.4 is the Earnings for the quarter without the mark to mark evaluation and stuff, after getting reduced from Rs. 5.31 . About the CFVF already SLStock gave an explanation. It would be a great idea if people refrain from giving advice to rest if they do not have any understanding about the matter or just doing it on just speculation please say it . Just because there are some added earning than the core business does not mean 100% of the earnings come from added earnings. Regarding MAl.X as I said the reason it can shoot a bit high is ofc because its illiquid and in CSE that means when a upward movement starts it goes up way more than the liquid share. ( LGL.X, COCO.X )

Also as I said its a matter for discussion but I still can only see myself from posting about companies. Can some of you also please contribute without some data to back up.

where do you get the 2.4? I only see 37 million in gross operational profits.

The other big problem with CFVF are the interest rates. The money they are showing right now are from bonds from about 4-5 years ago when the interest rates plus inflation was sky high relative to the present. unless we know exactly how many of those instruments are left it's difficult to estimate future income. and it's also unlikely that such a favorable situation would arise again. that's why this stock didn't break 30 the moment September earnings weren't announced. Most people have doubt about CFVF's ability continually give returns of this level

Can I ask how you go t that value 37 million plz?
Reguarding you question,
Net profit for the period= 210,699,20
Mark to mark adjustment = 114,974,925
So 2.41= (210,699,20-114,974,925)/ 39,685,048.
The value of 2.41 can only go up as as for the Net profit for the period would have included even if there was any expenses in valuing the Mark to mark adjustment as well. ( when you exclude it).

Where is another link about the CDB. http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/28/cdb-tops-rs-300-m-in-9-month-net-profit/

Can you please share about your 4 stocks after explaining how you say CDB have such low gain mono ?
(Edit type last sentence)

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

Forward EPS of Rs. 9.6= 2.4*4 for annualized. The value Rs 2.4 is the Earnings for the quarter without the mark to mark evaluation and stuff, after getting reduced from Rs. 5.31 . About the CFVF already SLStock gave an explanation. It would be a great idea if people refrain from giving advice to rest if they do not have any understanding about the matter or just doing it on just speculation please say it . Just because there are some added earning than the core business does not mean 100% of the earnings come from added earnings. Regarding MAl.X as I said the reason it can shoot a bit high is ofc because its illiquid and in CSE that means when a upward movement starts it goes up way more than the liquid share. ( LGL.X, COCO.X )

Also as I said its a matter for discussion but I still can only see myself from posting about companies. Can some of you also please contribute without some data to back up.

where do you get the 2.4? I only see 37 million in gross operational profits.

The other big problem with CFVF are the interest rates. The money they are showing right now are from bonds from about 4-5 years ago when the interest rates plus inflation was sky high relative to the present. unless we know exactly how many of those instruments are left it's difficult to estimate future income. and it's also unlikely that such a favorable situation would arise again. that's why this stock didn't break 30 the moment September earnings weren't announced. Most people have doubt about CFVF's ability continually give returns of this level

Also you really need some reading comprehension man. Thast why listed CFVF under short term gain and not under Medium term company. IF you check they have got a margin trading account and you can see in their annual prospectus how they intend to diversify for the future of the company.

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
lol, getting angry aren't we? can you show me how you concocted that EPS of 9.6.

Forward EPS of Rs. 9.6= 2.4*4 for annualized. The value Rs 2.4 is the Earnings for the quarter without the mark to mark evaluation and stuff, after getting reduced from Rs. 5.31 . About the CFVF already SLStock gave an explanation. It would be a great idea if people refrain from giving advice to rest if they do not have any understanding about the matter or just doing it on just speculation please say it . Just because there are some added earning than the core business does not mean 100% of the earnings come from added earnings. Regarding MAl.X as I said the reason it can shoot a bit high is ofc because its illiquid and in CSE that means when a upward movement starts it goes up way more than the liquid share. ( LGL.X, COCO.X )

Also as I said its a matter for discussion but I still can only see myself from posting about companies. Can some of you also please contribute without some data to back up.

where do you get the 2.4? I only see 37 million in gross operational profits.

The other big problem with CFVF are the interest rates. The money they are showing right now are from bonds from about 4-5 years ago when the interest rates plus inflation was sky high relative to the present. unless we know exactly how many of those instruments are left it's difficult to estimate future income. and it's also unlikely that such a favorable situation would arise again. that's why this stock didn't break 30 the moment September earnings weren't announced. Most people have doubt about CFVF's ability continually give returns of this level

Also you really need some reading comprehension man. Thast why listed CFVF under short term gain and not under Medium term company. IF you check they have got a margin trading account and you can see in their annual prospectus how they intend to diversify for the future of the company.

short term or long term doesn't matter. the share has to attract big buyers for it to move, either that or you run an aggressive ad campaign backed by a brokerage. Big buyers don't move in unless they see long time gains. this is why plantations such as MAL always trade at a discount. Short term movements are nothing more than reactions to long term buyers moving in.

and i thought their trading account was for bonds. correct me if i'm wrong. I don't think they are buying stocks. this was discussed in investnow.lk

mono wrote:
short term or long term doesn't matter. the share has to attract big buyers for it to move, either that or you run an aggressive ad campaign backed by a brokerage. Big buyers don't move in unless they see long time gains. this is why plantations such as MAL always trade at a discount. Short term movements are nothing more than reactions to long term buyers moving in.

and i thought their trading account was for bonds. correct me if i'm wrong. I don't think they are buying stocks. this was discussed in investnow.lk

WEll that can you expalin why you said you are going to buy CFVF your self in this same tread above ? Also just because a company does not have huge future potential that does not mean it will not give great returns in the short term mainly in the form of dividends. Anyway there is only one month for you to whait and see if the share price may rise to a peak within next month. I would be more than ready to back with future growth of the 2 companies I listed as medium term.

Also can you please say what you have to tell about the false rumors you been carrying out about the CDB investment all being evaluations and only 37 million profits and they can not repeat the process? I already showed you how I calculated the value of Rs 9.6 Annual EPS. Can you back your statements that you made now plz ?

Rajitha wrote:Can I ask how you go t that value 37 million plz?
Reguarding you question,
Net profit for the period= 210,699,20
Mark to mark adjustment = 114,974,925
So 2.41= (210,699,20-114,974,925)/ 39,685,048.
The value of 2.41 can only go up as as for the Net profit for the period would have included even if there was any expenses in valuing the Mark to mark adjustment as well. ( when you exclude it).

Where is another link about the CDB. http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/28/cdb-tops-rs-300-m-in-9-month-net-profit/

Can you please share about your 4 stocks after explaining how you say CDB have such low gain mono ?
(Edit type last sentence)

you're assuming that the remaining 50mil in the other income category can be replicated every quarter. I'm not buying that. they do seem to get healthy amount of commissions, but there is no way they can get 50 mil in commissions alone.

gross profit was a simple calculation, net interest income subtracted by operating cost. the other thing is that they have put a negative value for bad/doubtful debt of 15 million. that's again something that cannot be replicated in fact it should almost always be a negative positive value, and espically so considering this was part of the ceylinco fiasco. But i'm not sure how badly CDB was exposed to that

mono wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Can I ask how you go t that value 37 million plz?
Reguarding you question,
Net profit for the period= 210,699,20
Mark to mark adjustment = 114,974,925
So 2.41= (210,699,20-114,974,925)/ 39,685,048.
The value of 2.41 can only go up as as for the Net profit for the period would have included even if there was any expenses in valuing the Mark to mark adjustment as well. ( when you exclude it).

Where is another link about the CDB. http://www.ft.lk/2011/01/28/cdb-tops-rs-300-m-in-9-month-net-profit/

Can you please share about your 4 stocks after explaining how you say CDB have such low gain mono ?
(Edit type last sentence)

you're assuming that the remaining 50mil in the other income category can be replicated every quarter. I'm not buying that. they do seem to get healthy amount of commissions, but there is no way they can get 50 mil in commissions alone.


gross profit was a simple calculation, net interest income subtracted by operating cost. the other thing is that they have put a negative value for bad/doubtful debt of 15 million. that's again something that cannot be replicated in fact it should almost always be a negative value, and espically so considering this was part of the ceylinco fiasco. But i'm not sure how badly CDB was exposed to that

So you making your calculations on assumptions and not on any valid accounting terms ? So I guess the quite clear gain we all +me (Lecture) + the papers can see is a mistake ?
Also from the post about you going to buy CFVF and saying rest not to buy and they can not justify the price only indicate you just trying to manipulate the rest of the people to dump there shares so you can buy it lower.

mono wrote:

slstock wrote:Mono,
The thing is even if one take the off gains and tax reversal CFVF is still has about 4 EPS annualized. So the share can be worth around RS 40 atleast presently. But it has a weird behavior.

A m not making a buy recommedation as you pointed out it a bit dodgy. But presently with expected earning from LAMB sale this quarter should be decent and some dividend is what we expect.


BTW, do you still have CFVF with you are gave it up.

I'm looking to buy back again. I'm not going to buy as many as I bought last time around

Rajitha wrote:

mono wrote:
short term or long term doesn't matter. the share has to attract big buyers for it to move, either that or you run an aggressive ad campaign backed by a brokerage. Big buyers don't move in unless they see long time gains. this is why plantations such as MAL always trade at a discount. Short term movements are nothing more than reactions to long term buyers moving in.

and i thought their trading account was for bonds. correct me if i'm wrong. I don't think they are buying stocks. this was discussed in investnow.lk

WEll that can you expalin why you said you are going to buy CFVF your self in this same tread above ? Also just because a company does not have huge future potential that does not mean it will not give great returns in the short term mainly in the form of dividends. Anyway there is only one month for you to whait and see if the share price may rise to a peak within next month. I would be more than ready to back with future growth of the 2 companies I listed as medium term.

Also can you please say what you have to tell about the false rumors you been carrying out about the CDB investment all being evaluations and only 37 million profits and they can not repeat the process? I already showed you how I calculated the value of Rs 9.6 Annual EPS. Can you back your statements that you made now plz ?

The thing with the divideds story is that it has been around for about three months. i got this at 18 december and disposed of it at 27.5. now that the stock has gone up more than 50% i don't want to put alot of money into to this so'll buy like 20K, if the dividend comes it'll be good. if not it won't be a big loss. CFVF hasn't shown us quarter by quarter growth so it's difficult to estimate next quarter's earnings. now the problem with CFVF speculation is if they publish this quarter's results and if they are disappointing. this share will come down into the low 20s.

That's why i don't think CFVF is a great deal for short term gains. MAL.X is risky if things go wrong and you have to sell in a hurry you won't be able to sell. that's why this trades at a discount.

CDB is a little overpriced in my opinion, but if the market evaluates it the way you look at it you'll get nice earnings. So if you have confidence in you evaluation, cheers & good luck. in any case CDB will do well in the future as most of the Ceylinco companies seem to be recovering

mono wrote:
The thing with the divideds story is that it has been around for about three months. i got this at 18 december and disposed of it at 27.5. now that the stock has gone up more than 50% i don't want to put alot of money into to this so'll buy like 20K, if the dividend comes it'll be good. if not it won't be a big loss. .........
That's why i don't think CFVF is a great deal for short term gains. MAL.X is risky if things go wrong and you have to sell in a hurry you won't be able to sell. that's why this trades at a discount.......

Well if you check the dividend date you can clearly see they have been giving the dividends in the february and last year also share price start to sky rocket around late Jan to mid February. I think you are misinterpreting JINS dividend with CFVF.

Reguarding MAL.X I just realised it from your prospective becasue of the small amount of 20k shares of CFVF . Well you are must be hoping to buy in range of 50k or so and I can c why this might be a problem if you want to dump all at once. For me I' hoping to buy in the range of 700-1000 shares as I'm just a small fish in a big sea. So that is actually not a huge deal for me dump them easily for a good gain in like in one months time after there financial statement comes out.

what do you think of CRL ?

directors are buying recently at 56,57 levels .. after rights their price is increased bit. may be next reports shows some good sign.. now it is managed by softlogic .. might be a good prospect...
but I haven't studied this share much..just go through with announcements..

econ wrote:what do you think of CRL ?

directors are buying recently at 56,57 levels .. after rights their price is increased bit. may be next reports shows some good sign.. now it is managed by softlogic .. might be a good prospect...
but I haven't studied this share much..just go through with announcements..

don't know much about it. charts look ok