What are the best plantations stocks?

rishanpossitive · 26 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Tue Mar 20, 2012 11:50 am

rishanpossitive

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rishanpossitive wrote:

ccsentha wrote:What are the best plantations stocks to buy?
Not the speculated ones, What are the actual fundamentally strong Value stocks in plantations Sector?

Every plantation share is attractive now.It seems KOTA and KGAL have bottomed out around 55-60 and 80-90 ranges respectively.

I proved correct,good gain.Holding without panic selling. Very Happy

kam2011 · 27 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Tue Mar 20, 2012 3:48 pm

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Light of Hope wrote:If someone really wants to buy plantation, KGAL would be the best.

Looks like you guessed it correctly. Huge interim dividends announced by KGAL during a difficult period for entire plantation sector.

kam2011 · 28 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Tue Mar 20, 2012 3:54 pm

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illuminati wrote:There is another wage hike end of this year as per the collective agreement. This vicious cycle keeps repeating biannually hampering any growth . Even though some amateurs think plantations are undervalued just because the PE is low most fund managers ignore it . Only Yaddahige is buying NAMU ,KGAL and MASK to prevent his net worth depreciating further.

Not only he prvented his net worth depriciation further he also got a chance to receive a huge amount of dividend income from NAMU and KGAL no? Lucky guy.

trasantha · 29 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Tue Mar 20, 2012 6:30 pm

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My Dear friend read this

මෙරට තේ කර්මාන්තයට අනතුරු හැඟවීමක්

Saturday, 17 March 2012 10:30

Sri Lanka tea trade warns of lower orders prices

ඉදිරියේදී මෙරට තේ කර්මාන්තයට උදාවීමට නියමිතව තිබෙන්නේ එතරම් සුභ කල දසාවක් නොවන බවට අනතුරු හැඟවේ.

මේ අනුව, ඉදිරියේදී තේ අස්වැන්න වැඩිවීමේ ප්‍රවණතාවයත් ප්‍රධාන වෙළඳ පොළ
වලින් තේ සඳහා තිබෙන ඉල්ලුම අඩුවීමට තිබෙන ඉඩකඩ නිසාත් තේ අපනයන ඇනවුම් පහළ
ගොස් මිල ගණන් පහළ බසිනු ඇතැයි කොළඹ තේ වෙළෙඳුන්ගේ සංගමය කියයි.
මේ අනුව, තේ අපනයනය කිරීමේදී ප්‍රචාරණය වෙනුවෙන් අයකළ බදු මුදල් ඉන්දියාව,
චීනය වැනි වෙළඳ පොළවල තේ ප්‍රචලිත කිරීමේ ක්‍රියාමාර්ග සඳහා යෙදවිය
යුතුයැයි එම සංගමය අවධාරණය කර සිටී.

මේ වනවිට, සාම්ප්‍රදායික වෙළඳ පොළවල් වල බටහිරින් හා මැදපෙරදිගින් මෙරට තේ
වලට තිබෙන ඉල්ලුම අඩුවෙමින් තිබෙන බව කොළඹ තේ වෙළෙඳුන්ගේ සංගමය කියයි.

මැදපෙරදිග රටවල ඇතිවී තිබෙන දේශපාලනික අර්බුද තේ ඉල්ලුම පහළ යාමට ප්‍රධාන වශයෙන්ම බලපා ඇත.

මෙරට ජනගහනයෙන් සියයට 20 ක් සෘජුව හා වක්‍රව තේ කර්මාන්තයෙන් යැපෙන අතර තේ මිල ගණන් පහළ යාම නිසා කර්මාන්තය දැඩි අනතුරකට පත්වේ.

rishanpossitive · 30 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:15 pm

rishanpossitive

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traderathome wrote:

rishanpossitive wrote:

ccsentha wrote:What are the best plantations stocks to buy?
Not the speculated ones, What are the actual fundamentally strong Value stocks in plantations Sector?

Every plantation share is attractive now.It seems KOTA and KGAL have bottomed out around 55-60 and 80-90 ranges respectively.

have a look at this chart.i dont see kota has bottomed out.instead i am expecting the price to fall to 30Rs. or above the MA (Red)

Your day dream of buying Kota at 30 is over.

Rajaraam · 31 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:00 pm

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"illuminati wrote:
There is another wage hike end of this year as per the collective agreement. This vicious cycle keeps repeating biannually hampering any growth . Even though some amateurs think plantations are undervalued just because the PE is low most fund managers ignore it . Only Yaddahige is buying NAMU ,KGAL and MASK to prevent his net worth depreciating further.
traderathome wrote:
very well said. for me all plantation stocks are well below the MA which depicts it has gone into a bearish channel.lemme come with the charts BTW. here is the chart.i tried to explain most of them on the chart.the current price level has found a support at mar 2009 price levels.some want to enter the market at this level looking at the strong support.but i would wait until the price is above the MA to know whether the big brothers have loaded.the stocks if go up should be disposed at around 30-32rs as you will see the sell off at previous occasions. happy trading"

Look . Now KOTA is trading at double the price you mentioned.This indicates us when we take decisions based on charts we have to be very careful. It is not advisable to take investment decisions purely on charts. There are many other factors connected with financials and political situation, monetary policy , unexpected weather change etc. Though the charts positions are created with the influence of the factors relavant to a perticular share we cant expect all factors are represented in charts. Eg;sudden fall of Rupee to 130 range was unexpected and that has not reflected in the charts of plantation sector.

traderathome · 32 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:13 pm

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Tea Small Holders Hold Back Stocks
Sri Lanka’s tea industry continues to flounder with falling tea prices and increasing sanctions on Sri Lanka’s largest tea importers.
The government has attempted to deflect attention from the worsening situation in the industry by insisting that the export of tea to the Middle East has continued despite these sanctions.
Lal Premanath, Head of the Federation of Tea Small Holders’ Associations, told The Sunday Leader that the farmers could be getting better prices for the tea leaves than what is currently being offered. ‘The increased cost of transport, labour hire and factory operations have seen the farmers get a reduced profit. On top of that the turmoil in the Middle East has seen the price of tea driven down,’ he explained.
Premanath accused the government of failing to help the farmers through the turbulent times in the industry. ‘The fertiliser subsidies that the government has provided is of a low quality, this means that only 65% of the total tea leaves plucked is export quality’, he added.
Premanath further stated that the government has not made any moves to alleviate the financial burden that has befallen the farmers.
Asked what measures the government should be taking, Premanath responded that financial assistance must be given to the farmers. He also urged the government to explore alternatives to the Middle East to continue the trade. ‘The government is relying on Iran and the rest of the Middle East to continue their trade with us, if the situation should arise where they cannot continue purchasing our tea we will have no alternative,’ Premanath said.
The head of the federation drew attention to a worrying sign which is seeing many small tea plantations holding back their stocks. ‘With the falling price of tea and increased cost of production these owners are reluctant to pluck their tea leaves,’ he said.
The Sri Lanka Tea Board told media on Wednesday that tea production for the month of February had dropped by 0.6% compared to February 2011. According to officials this fall is due to a higher than normal production recorded last year.
Premanath denied this was the case, explaining that the fall in tea production is a sign of plantations refusing to pluck their tea leaves.
High prices in 2011 saw the tea industry top the agricultural export list earnings at Rs. 195.2 billion. However, analysts have been unable to predict a potential figure for earnings this year due to the increasing uncertainty surrounding the industry in the Middle East.
The tea industry accounts for over 12% of Sri Lanka’s annual export earnings, a loss of this would greatly affect the already damaged economy.

The Sunday Leader
March 25, 2012
By Dinouk Colombage

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Mar 26, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lankan tea prices perked up after the recent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar but unrest in the Middle East, a big market, will act as a drag on further increases, brokers said.

"The general trend of declining prices witnessed from the second half of 2011 is expected to continue in the foreseeable future," tea brokers John Keells said in a report.

In January and February 2012, sale averages at all elevations remaind lower than last year's values for the same period "as political turmoil and economic sanctions in the Middle East hinder the most important market for Sri Lanka’s low grown teas," they said.

Low grown teas, cultivated mainly by small farmers in the south, account for the bulk of the crop.

Countries such as Iraq, Iran, Syria and Libya together account for 55 percent of the export market.

"The recent international trade sanctions imposed on Iran and Syria are beginning to take effect due to restricted access to international financial systems," the brokers said.

"It is reported that Iranian importers are unable to guarantee payment, for imports of rice, wheat, tea, corn, and palm oil among others and will soon ground to a halt."

The Western High Grown sector, which produce some of the most sought after teas during the quality season in February - March, has "failed to make a significant difference in prices despite weather conditions for production of such teas in 2012 being far more conducive to previous years," John Keells said.

As at end-February the Western High Grown average of 346.59 rupees was 40.12 rupees below the average of 386.71 rupees in 2011 and 33.03 rupees below the corresponding period of 2010.

"In the mean time with the recent devaluation of the rupee and the Sri Lanka rupee falling to 132 rupees against the US dollar, the impact on tea prices at the Colombo auctions are beginning to show signs of an upward movement," the brokers said.

At last week's auction prices of most high grown teas improved but low growns were mixed.

The brokers said the downturn in prices since the middle of 2011 has created serious cash flow problems for the regional plantation companies.

The firms are already saddled with high production costs due to a wage hike and recent increases in electricity and fuel charges.

Private factories too which cater to the smallholder sector have been similarly affected, John Keells said.
http://lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1589795795

Rajaraam · 34 Re: What are the best plantations stocks? Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:35 pm

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"Premanath denied this was the case, explaining that the fall in tea production is a sign of plantations refusing to pluck their tea leaves."

tradeathome, How can we believe premanath's above statement? If you dont fluck teaves at the correct time you are losing a lot of money immediately. Not only that when you dont fluck leaves at the right time next harvest will be much lesser. Therefore any planter will not refuse to fluck leaves under any circumpstances coz no one wants to see his losses are further increased.