Technical Journal Book of NC

Gainer wrote:please can you Analysis AGST.N

What is the short term target.

Thankyou

Still there's no a clear pattern except the double bottom @ 4.2 and the negative divergence of MACD. Hence short term targets can be taken as 6 or 7. And 6 will be a Res.

I hope to do some review after 3 months starting of my Journal Book as its one my objective stated at the beginning.


Sym: LIOC.N
Date: 20/08/2014
Price: 40/-
Target: 65/-
Gain:  37.5%
Period : less than 3 months (ST)
URL: http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t36006-lioc-harmonics

NC wrote:Nice pattern is forming on LIOC chart.
C point around 39 -38.5
D - 44
Will see the validity of this pattern within next few weeks.>>>

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Sym: GLAS.N
Date: 16/09/2014
Price: 4.00
Target: 6 (Pending)
Gain: 24% (@ CMP)
Period: 2 months

NC wrote:Glas Analysis: Review

NC wrote:

NC wrote:

NC wrote:GLAS.N ; Analysis
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t36330-glasn
GLAS.N ; Analysis Cont'd
count on EW
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I think "c" leg possibly end 4 or 4.2 or 4.4

Closer look of Glas.n
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sometimes, it could be a-b-c-d-e correction based on ascending traingle, untill price level 4 is not break.

The a-b-c-d-e correction was null as the break of price level 4 on today...

Pattern completed sucessfully, with the break of 4.4.
And 5-3-5 zigzag correction (a-b-c) is null. Its sure this is a impulse.

NC wrote:Glas Analysis; (28/10/2014)

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Successful completion of HPP pattern and seems end of its 3rd leg. After the pattern completion we sold, now its time to look again for its 5th leg on EW.
It did 38.2% Fib retracement. ( The classical Ret: of 4th leg.)
Targets for the 5th leg is given.
T1: 4.9 - 5 ; Double top (should be with careful at this level)
T2: 5.3 -5.4
T3: 6
Generally we can look for return above 20%. With a minimum risk (5%) of STP @ 4.4/-(Weekly S1.)
Bcz Weekly PP @ 4.5. And Yesterday has closed above the Weekly pivot is a good bullish sign.
Further, in fundamentally, the reduction of electricity prices for industries and fuel prices could hope some more profits on Glas in future..

Sym: DPL.N
Date: 18/09/2014
Price: 14/-
Target: 18/- (20 pending)
Gain: 28.5%
Period: 2 months

NC wrote:

NC wrote:Analysis: DPL.N
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In longterm view, bear trend is reversed with the break of LH (24), since after that there's no any new LL. So, all the other movements are just noises.

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Closer look of Dpl.n:
There's a HPP. so, the target is 20.
According to Schiff pitchfork, it shows a nice channel. The 50% line (ML) has achived @15. Currrently, there's a resistant. (the 50% line). Hence, it can have a pull back. 100% line (UPL)  @ 18.

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Intraday view of Dpl.n:
As said by above chart, ML is a resistant, as you can see the double top @ 14.7. On the other hand, there's an ascending traingal. So, anything could be possible, in next couple of days. on  short term elliotwave counting I think it will do a correction, around 13.5.

Res: 15, 18, 20
Sup: 14, 13.5 , 12. (Be aware if it break 12, a good support)

Analysis; DPL (cont'd)

Recently, 14.5 resistant was break so, intraday ascending triangle, break upward.
So, I did a EW count on DPL, for short term outlook.
seems it s running 5th leg, as you can see in the diagram it could either end at 15 or 16 or 18.

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Sym: BERU.N
Date: 17/09/2014
Price: 2.5/-
STP: 2.2/-
Gain: ( 12%)

Review: Beru is weak with fundamentals. Safe to trade with fundamentally sounded stocks.

NC wrote:Analysis: Beru.N
Note: Beru is not a fundamentally strong share and its illiquid.

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There's a nice harmonic pattern in long term toward Rs.3 and Rs.4. And pitchfork shows the same direction.
The current resistant 2.5 (last LH) is crucial to break out the box with a high volume to confirm the trend reversal. If, so it will 3 and retest 2.5.
However, retracement could be possible around 2 on this stage. before break 2.5.
Supports: 2.2, 1.9 and 1.7 (schiff Fork). If it break 1.6 (LL) game is over.
Illquidty is another issue in these type of analysis.
We will see with the time....>>>  
Note: Beru is not a fundamentally strong share and its illiquid. This's anlysis for education purpose only.

Sym: KAPI.N
Date: 28/10/2014
Price: 55/-
Gain: 45.5% (@ CMP)
Period: Less than 1 month.

NC wrote:Kapi:
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Small HPP can see in daily Kapi chart. Its 1st target is almost completed. Though its small, its potential to make a new HH to 60. Even with its right issue the counter has become attractive, and having a good buying pressure.
Fundamentally, strong and undervalued share. Thus with the 2015 budget construction companies are favored and large scale of constructions're proposed.

Sym: JINS.N
Date: 31/10/2014
Price: 22/-
Gain: 13.6% (CMP)

NC wrote:JINS.N:
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VFIN.N:

NC wrote:Analysis: Vfin.N

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Low risk entry point @ 46, with the Sym. triangle with STP (stoploss) @ 46.
Targets 50, 55, 60

EXIT with Break even. (Broker fee)

Pendings:
Namu.N
Date: 28/10/2014
Price:88/-
P/L: Floating.

NC wrote:Namu Analysis:
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Namu is a fundamentally strong and undervalued company. Accroding to 2 years of history reading, seems its moving in a channel, as showed in the chart. A small double bottom could be identified and could ba taken as a good support and a STP.
Further, Namu is popular for its diversified crops. Mainly on Oil Palms. Continuous highest earnings even other palntation recroded lower earnings.
Thus, its attractive to investors on its higher dividends. The, con is its somewhat illquid.

CSD.N:
Date: 03/11/2014
Price: 15/-
P/L: Folating.

NC wrote:

NC wrote:

fff4sl wrote:Mr.NC
Why u said to kit with CSD? Any div or sin stat out???

I don't know about it and I didn't meant it.
I wanna say, Good entry points coming soon...

I was waited for today...

CSD.N: Analysis

Here's the 5 years history view.
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Csd is moving in a long term channel. With the Hpp its completed it 16/- the first target and hit the ML. Then it retest some support. The 14/- was a good support as it's the 50% horizontal line there. And it is retested nicely.
Targets are;
S/T (short term) - 16 (Double top and 50% ML)
M/T - 21/- (75% line and 2.61 fib.ext),
L/T- 24-25/-. (100% UML)

Here's the one year view of CSD;
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If you clearly observed there's a small hpp. With todays break of 15/- its mostly confirmed and its good bullish sign. It could make double top at HH - 16.2/- the critical Res.
If it clearly break it'll easily move towards 21/-.

-GL

Summary: Gain

LIOC.N: 37.5%
GLAS.N: 24%
DPL.N: 28.5%
BERU.N: (12%)
KAPI.N: 45.5%
JINS.N: 13.6%

Total: 137%
Period: Less than 3 Months


CHRZ


It's fine to celebrate success but it is more important to heed the lessons of failure.
- Bill Gates

"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose."
- Bill Gates

well done..

Mr.NC
give me a review about CFIN

total 137% gain within 3 months

NC... how did you calculate gain of each counter?

Impressive...

zoozzoo wrote:NC... how did you calculate gain of each counter?

zoozoo don't get mess, its not from the initial capital. Instead I review the profitability in order to check whether the strategy is profitable in selected period of time.
So, in case of return from the initial capital, if we allocate same amount for each counter it will be 23% gain for the period for last 3 months. (137/600)

Hats off to you mate...
Thanx heaps for your valuable contributions to the forum and to us....

NC wrote:

Gainer wrote:please can you Analysis AGST.N

What is the short term target.

Thankyou

Still there's no a clear pattern except the double bottom @ 4.2 and the negative divergence of MACD. Hence short term targets can be taken as  6 or 7. And 6 will be a Res.

NC thanks

AGST went up 6.20 and came down 5.80 but strong buy at 5.80 today
Can you do the chart and next target price.

thanks.

Analysis: COLO.N

Tech view:
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According to DOW theory the counter has break its accumulation phase at 120 which was accumulating nearly 2 years with confirmation with recent big volumes more than 300k. And it again retest the support 120, which was the Res in the previous phase. Hence, now, we could expect the Expansion phase, at a target of at least 190 - 200. ARes. can be expected at 150 level.

Fundamental:

NAV = 235/-
Annualized EPS = 37/-
P/E = 3.7
Valuation of share = Rs. 442/- ( Graham)
CMP = 138/-

Company profile: ( Micro view)

Key business area;  Automobile Engineers, Importers and Retailers of Vehicles, Motor spares & accessories.

Colonial Mortors:
Authorized distributor for Mazda vehicles in Sri Lanka and Maldives of importing, distributing, servicing of Mazda vehicles and spare parts. And provide a range of spare parts for Mazda, Land Rover & TATA vehicles.
KIA Motors:
Authorized distributor for KIA vehicles in Sri Lanka of importing, distributing, servicing of KIA vehicles and spare parts.
Kia Motors (Lanka) Ltd. was adjudged Kia’s ‘Distributor of Distinction’ in acknowledgement of ‘Professionalism of the Highest Degree and Outstanding Sales Performance in the Asia Region. KIA is one of the highest selling brands in the Sports Utility (SUV) segment in Sri Lanka with the Kia Sorento and the Kia Sportage.

C.M.Holdoing subsidiaries:

Car Plan Ltd.
Union Investment
KIA Motors
Guardian Asset Management
Colonial Motors

Looks good future ahead.
- GL

visvajith wrote:Mr.NC
give me a review about CFIN

Hold this this is a future winner..
At least it should above 300. Target range in short to midterm 300 - 320. Long term this should have to go a long journey...

Gainer wrote:

NC wrote:

Gainer wrote:please can you Analysis AGST.N

What is the short term target.

Thankyou

Still there's no a clear pattern except the double bottom @ 4.2 and the negative divergence of MACD. Hence short term targets can be taken as  6 or 7. And 6 will be a Res.

NC thanks

AGST went up 6.20 and came down 5.80 but strong buy at 5.80 today
Can you do the chart and next target price.

thanks.

@ Gainer we have to wait and see untill the chart do so clearly...

NC wrote:

Gainer wrote:

NC wrote:

Gainer wrote:please can you Analysis AGST.N

What is the short term target.

Thankyou

Still there's no a clear pattern except the double bottom @ 4.2 and the negative divergence of MACD. Hence short term targets can be taken as  6 or 7. And 6 will be a Res.

NC thanks

AGST went up 6.20 and came down 5.80 but strong buy at 5.80 today
Can you do the chart and next target price.

thanks.

@ Gainer we have to wait and see untill the chart do so clearly...

Or else we can do something like this.. we can count the swing points..unfortunately I cannot calculate weekly swings via DFN since there's no pivot point indicator. So, better to contact Shark..
On my zigzag view privous LH @ 8. and as I told you earlier only Reversal pattern is the double bottom.
Or else we've to wait another around 3 months to see a clear HPP.

Forget political game and Time to listen for the weekend song...

50's Rock & Roll mix...
Fataw dance...>>>

ASI (27/11/2014) - Intraday Outlook

Its hard to identify a positive sign in this intraday bear trend. 24th morning extreme panic selling or a manipulation has done (orange circled) but soon again it was up around 100 correcting it. And still keep its moving in rose colored channel.
However, it could identify some two positive signs:
1. Price moving between UML & ML
2. RSI negative momentum/trend line break, which cannot be seen at the graph. Hence, its good sign of a potential trend reversal in favor of bullish.

However, ultimate result expecting from above two is the break of 7200-7250 in coming days. And it'll give a another direction, a good direction for ASI hopefully.
And if there isn't a bad news untill the break of 7200 - 7250 its a win for bulls. So, lets hope..!!
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-GL

NC wrote:ASI (27/11/2014) - Intraday Outlook

Its hard to identify a positive sign in this intraday bear trend. 24th morning extreme panic selling or a manipulation has done (orange circled) but soon again it was up around 100 correcting it. And still keep its moving in rose colored channel.
However, it could identify some two positive signs:
1. Price moving between UML & ML
2. RSI negative momentum/trend line break, which cannot be seen at the graph. Hence, its good sign of a potential trend reversal in favor of bullish.

However, ultimate result expecting from above two is the break of 7200-7250 in coming days. And it'll give a another direction, a good direction for ASI hopefully.
And if there isn't a bad news untill the break of 7200 - 7250 its a win for bulls. So, lets hope..!!
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-G

Realy Appreciated

Thnx gainer...

Yesterday ASI was up by few points but it's still not sufficient for a trend reversal. As I showed in the graph its still moving its previous channel.
However, there're potentials of trend reversals,
RSI momentum trendline break @ 27/11/2014, and yesterday it was confirmed by the main graph. So its a good win for bulls. Chrz  

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Now its passing crucial level, 7180-7200 is a Res and if it enter to 7250 to level is the potential trend reversal level I belive. So, next couple of days will be critical. Only thing I'm worried about political storm which could break this baby bull appearing in intraday chart.
So, Politicians plz wait untill we pass this crucial area....
And I was also looking at A-B-C correction in intraday chart...

And this is the channel I'm lookin for the next week... Lets have a hope..>>

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- GL

NC,ur great ur technical analyses are mind blowing

Thanks NC.
Really appreciated your valuable feedback.

GB
B+

Good Job. NC.

For me the last kick in friday had some force in it.So i expect monday to be very good.But i have my doubts on tuesday from my technical analysis.I expect people to realise some profits & later will gather steam slowly.

For me now the the political crossovers will not have big negative impact (provided the big fellow does not sell). It it happens again it will in a smaller scale.

RPPA

gr8 job.nc

What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?

glad wrote:What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?

@ Glad, still the ASI moving in blue colured channel. Hence, nothing is confirmed yet for a reversal. As I said above, for me I want at least to be hit 7250.
On the other hand if it clearly break 7000 (23%), I'm looking at 38.2% level; 6900-6850. And I'm expecting a flat correction less than 50%.

NC wrote:

glad wrote:What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?

@ Glad, still the ASI moving in blue colured channel. Hence, nothing is confirmed yet for a reversal. As I said above, for me I want at least to be hit 7250.
On the other hand if it clearly break 7000 (23%), I'm looking at 38.2% level; 6900-6850. And I'm expecting a flat correction less than 50%.  

NC.
Thanks for your thoughts

NC wrote:

glad wrote:What do you think the ASI will come down to if it starts to drop?

@ Glad, still the ASI moving in blue colured channel. Hence, nothing is confirmed yet for a reversal. As I said above, for me I want at least to be hit 7250.
On the other hand if it clearly break 7000 (23%), I'm looking at 38.2% level; 6900-6850. And I'm expecting a flat correction less than 50%.  

NC

We are approaching your 7,250.

Hopefully now NC will be bit confident then.

NC wrote:ASI (27/11/2014) - Intraday Outlook

Its hard to identify a positive sign in this intraday bear trend. 24th morning extreme panic selling or a manipulation has done (orange circled) but soon again it was up around 100 correcting it. And still keep its moving in rose colored channel.
However, it could identify some two positive signs:
1. Price moving between UML & ML
2. RSI negative momentum/trend line break, which cannot be seen at the graph. Hence, its good sign of a potential trend reversal in favor of bullish.

However, ultimate result expecting from above two is the break of 7200-7250 in coming days. And it'll give a another direction, a good direction for ASI hopefully.
And if there isn't a bad news untill the break of 7200 - 7250 its a win for bulls. So, lets hope..!!
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-GL

NC Thanks,  Now your Execllent target already break and what about your next Target ASI ?