L B FINANCE PLC (LFIN.N0000)

nis2010 wrote:

Aubrey Perera wrote:Correct even my target is 145 GL

that mean after reach 145 it will pull back ?????

Not that it will pull back from 145/= .


The phase which the counter will take to pass the Rs 145/=  and 160/= will determine whether it will reach Rs 200/= this year or not.

Free-cash balance will certainly push the company's EPS to a better than COMB /  HNB / SEYB figure in  2015-2016 FY.

Gold price drop will not make a hit on profitability as company just passed the 1st  Quarter of the financial year and also the core business of the company is Leasing.

Predicted annualized EPS is 20/= ( minimum)  , sector PE ratio is 10.5 .

Fair value =  20 X 10.5 = Rs 210/=

Also keep in mind that company might make a presence in "MYANMAR" in late 2016 FY for micro financing as many Banks & Finance from Sri Lanka just make an entrance.

Prince wrote:

nis2010 wrote:

Aubrey Perera wrote:Correct even my target is 145 GL

that mean after reach 145 it will pull back ?????

Not that it will pull back from 145/= .


The phase which the counter will take to pass the Rs 145/=  and 160/= will determine whether it will reach Rs 200/= this year or not.

Free-cash balance will certainly push the company's EPS to a better than COMB /  HNB / SEYB figure in  2015-2016 FY.

Gold price drop will not make a hit on profitability as company just passed the 1st  Quarter of the financial year and also the core business of the company is Leasing.

Predicted annualized EPS is 20/= ( minimum)  , sector PE ratio is 10.5 .

Fair value =  20 X 10.5 = Rs 210/=

Also keep in mind that company might make a presence in "MYANMAR" in late 2016 FY for micro financing as many Banks & Finance from Sri Lanka just make an entrance.

thank you prince for your explanation

when it moves it moves. GL

Aubrey Perera wrote:when it moves it moves. GL

Hi Guys,

Please assess LFIN's potential;

SecurityID

Name

Type

Description

Proportion

Dividend (Rs)

Quarter

Announced date

Price prior to Anno.dt

Current/EX Price

Price Change

EX Date

Payment date

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

1.00

Interim

21-Mar-2006

83.00

85.00

2.00

30-Mar-2006

12-Apr

LFINN0000

LB Finance

B

Bonus

2 for 5

15-Aug-2006

79.75

52.25

-27.50

09-Oct-2006

LFINN0000

LB Finance

R

Rights

1 for 2 @17.00

19-Sep-2007

41.50

25.00

-16.50

28-Nov-2007

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

2.25

1st & Final

02-Jun-2008

22.75

19.25

-3.50

29-Jul-2008

04-Aug

LFINN0000

LB Finance

R

Rights

1 for 7 @17.00

02-Jun-2008

22.75

19.25

-3.50

29-Jul-2008

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

3.00

1st & Final

26-May-2009

22.50

36.00

13.50

01-Jul-2009

10-Jul

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

5.00

Interim

29-Apr-2010

94.25

88.00

-6.25

07-May-2010

18-May

LFINN0000

LB Finance

B

Bonus

1 for 1

12-Jan-2011

309.40

147.10

-162.30

07-Mar-2011

View

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

3.50

1st & Final

08-Jun-2011

185.00

175.80

-9.20

01-Jul-2011

07-Jul

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

5.00

1st & Final

08-Jun-2012

100.00

121.20

21.20

02-Jul-2012

09-Jul

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

6.50

1st & Final

03-Jun-2013

129.90

123.00

-6.90

01-Jul-2013

09-Jul

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

6.50

1st & Final

02-Jun-2014

116.00

123.80

7.80

01-Jul-2014

09-Jul

LFINN0000

LB Finance

D

Dividend

10.00

1st & Final

22-May-2015

202.00

224.60

22.60

02-Jul-2015

10-Jul

LFINN0000

LB Finance

S

Sub-Division

1 INTO 2

20-May-2015

185.90

226.60

40.70

09-Jul-2015

LFIN has gradually increased its Dividend payout ratio during the history and EPS is Rs 5.6 for 1Q 2015.(Annualized - Rs 22.4). Hence the PE is 6.0 times.

Therefore if we calculate the expected market value of LFIN @ following PE levels;

Market PE @ 8         = Rs 179.2
Market PE @10       = Rs 224.0
Sector PE @ 12.93  = Rs 289.63

Therefore in the worse case any investor would be in the safe side since it is trading at a PE of 6 times. 

Further LFIN maintaining a diversified portfolio of business. It contains Leasing/hire purchase, Islamic Financing, Mortgage Loans, Factoring, Micro Finance, Pawning, Margin Trading, etc. Also recently company has introduced an innovative product to capture an untapped market of informal money lenders @ a lower rate. I guess this would bombard the market @ lower rate compared to informal lenders with aggressive marketing strategies of LFIN coupled with riders recoveries at business points. This is first time a bank or a finance company approached this market.

Company has made losses with Gold pawning business during 2012. However company now have diversified its portfolio to minimize the risk. Currently LFIN concentrates only 8%-10% on pawning business out of their total advances portfolio. Hence diminishing Gold rate in global market is less impact-full compared to 2012. Further global gold rates are at the rock /bottom since 1970. 

Further LFIN main business is leasing. During 2014, the imports of electric hybrid vehicles to Sri Lanka accelerated by 175% in terms of volume and 223% in terms of value. Reduction of duties for hybrid electric vehicles during 2014 was the reason for this boom. Japan is the major import source ofhybrid electric motor cars to Sri Lanka accounting for more than 95% of the market followed by Germany.


Hybrid Vehicles imports during 2010-2014(Source - Chamber of Commerce)

 

Year	Volume(No)	Value(Rs/Mn)
2010	438.00	980.00
2011	5,927.00	14,440.00
2012	1,943.00	5,439.00
2013	9,707.00	20,430.00
2014	26,729.00	66,004.00

This indicates the potential of the business and the trends for demand for hybrid vehicles has continues in 2015 as well.

Therefore considering the above facts I would like to recommend LFIN as a highly undervalue counter with high potential. Many investment funds, corporate investors eye as a medium/Long term investment due to its earnings potential and Dividend Yield . 

In my purview LFIN would be the next SDB....!

Happy Investments

Good time ahead

Hi Guys,

World Gold prices have risen recently. Good news for Banking and Finance industry,

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/gold.aspx

Happy Investments

LFIN is gng down.. today price was around 128.5 

fallen from 134 to 128

Hi guys,

Investments in stocks does not earn within a days, , months. We have to consider the value based on the current earnings, future earnings potential, external factors, quality of management, historical performance and many other criteria that could influence e financial statements. For example poultry sector is performing well and counter attractions is high. However during last couple of years no body worried to even buy or promote. Bit today it is a different story.

We have invest in stocks when everyone is rejecting. We have to sell when everyone following.That is the basic theory in investing stocks.

Hence price movement downward creates more opportunities to eaen more. Downward percentage based collection tactical method is something I adopt. No one has a perfect method in investing and we have our own methods to succeed. Many seniors in this forum follows different methods unique to them.

Happy Investments

@ONTHEMONEY, yes I am agree with you and that will be great advice to new investors. Thank you for sharing valuable things on this forum.

Thanks mate.

We have to maintain the credibility of this forum for everyone to gain something. It may not be profits only but learning, knowledge, information, etc are few values that we all can add to this I guess. This may take some time and it will retain overall membership.

Happy Investments

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi Guys,

World Gold prices have risen recently. Good news for Banking and Finance industry,

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/gold.aspx

Happy Investments

Good thing.
Will new goverment keep interest rate low?This is the major question for Banking and Finance industry if I am not wrong.

Due to Reaction of gold prices decline.

Interest rate is a key concern for e industry. However we had a time period where lending rate was @ 24% - 26%. Interest rate depends upon inflation, exchange rate, etc. Currently we are facing e lowest ever interest rate for thw past decade. We may can experience an increase in interest rate where it could go up to 12% [present rate - 10%] subject to changes in above factors.
However currently all commodity prices are having a falling trend but e exchange rate is on e sidle lines. Considering these factors interest rate could remain constant till e year end.

However evwn if interest rates rises banks have collected enough low cost funds and already expanded the lending portfolio by 15% - 17% yearly. Hence if a rate hike applied they can lend at a slightly higher rate which ultimately earn more profits. Further they can attract more deposits at increased interest rate for future. Same thing occurred when interest rate was falling where everyone believed banks would loose since they have to lend @ lower rates. It is basically assets and liabilities management. Good institutions manage e cost of funds and earnings effectively to increase share holder value. If we look at COMB, SAMP, HNB, LFIN, COCR has perfectly managed it. Improved EPS,DY, Financials, etc are criteria we can measure it. pls look at e LFIN's potential in this topic where they grown its value to share holder in all times.

Further if we look at the gold price, all banks and finance companies in to gold business absorbed loss when they have lend at higher rates. Now they are lending against gold at a lower percentage and less penetrative on that market. Alternatively they concentrate on many diversified lending investments.Not like other businesses banks are sustainable since e portfolio is diversified.

Happy Investments

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Interest rate is a key concern for e industry. However we had a time period where lending rate was @ 24% - 26%. Interest rate depends upon inflation, exchange rate, etc. Currently we are facing e lowest ever interest rate for thw past decade. We may can experience an increase in interest rate where it could go up to 12% [present rate - 10%] subject to changes in above factors.
However currently all commodity prices are having a falling trend but e exchange rate is on e sidle lines.  Considering these factors interest rate could remain constant till e year end.

However evwn if interest rates rises banks have collected enough low cost funds and already expanded the lending portfolio by 15% - 17% yearly. Hence if a rate hike applied they can lend at a slightly higher rate which ultimately earn more profits. Further they can attract more deposits at increased interest rate for future. Same thing occurred when interest rate was falling where everyone believed banks would loose since they have to lend @ lower rates. It is basically assets and liabilities management. Good institutions manage e cost of funds and earnings effectively to increase share holder value. If we look at COMB, SAMP, HNB, LFIN, COCR has perfectly managed it. Improved EPS,DY, Financials, etc are criteria we can measure it. pls look at e LFIN's potential in this topic where they grown its value to share holder in all times.

Further if we look at the gold price, all banks and finance companies in to gold business absorbed loss when they have lend at higher rates. Now they are lending against gold at a lower percentage and less penetrative on that market. Alternatively they concentrate on many diversified lending investments.Not like other businesses banks are sustainable since e portfolio is diversified.

Happy Investments

Good explaination ONTHEMONEY.

Thanks mate.

I think LFIN cmp is good to buy. 120.5

is there any special reason to LFIN coming down??

Yes,now its because of 70% lease issue and falling gold price too.

Teller wrote:Yes,now its because of 70% lease issue and falling gold price too.

that means it's time to avoid this

This year target price is around rs 190.00

Teller wrote:Yes,now its because of 70% lease issue and falling gold price too.

Teller,

How this will impact for SDB. I am having 30% of my portfolio SDB. 
Please comment. 

Thanks

high divided Rs 7.50.but why its not moving.

really i cant understand what people think to buy share.even with good divided share price not adjust. what the reason for not move up????????

Dont worry bro. Hold on, you wont lose anything by holding this share.

only selling pressure.no buying.why.is it no good share to hold. please advice.

7.50 deelath watenawanee yako

Lfin witarak nemeine machan.honda ewa okkoma wage downne.up wenakota 10kwat yai

when up.only remain 3 days.after divided  also go down more than Rs 7.50

Hanuma xd is 1st july