SEMB 15 ANY COMMENT I HAVE BOUGHT AT 1.60...WILL IT MOVE...

SEMB.N @2.9
SEMB.W0015@1.5
Different =2.9-1.5=1.4 (To convert the warrant to Voting it need 1rs) but still you can save .4
so SEMB.W0015 very attractive now...

All the credit goes to Cse.Profit for pointing this Gem for us.

I will not say yes or no since it is not ethical to say so....but will tell you one thing if you trade wisely instead of the loss you can convert in to a humongous profit only trading with warrant 15. I am very bullish on thE warrant 15 with the current prices. I sold my holdings and re entered again at higher prices. It IS FOOLISH. isn't it.. No...once i came to my profit target i sold it . but then when i see the momentum builds up and i am sure of the direction of the momentum i entered even at a higher price. I will not sell it even at 1.5 since i know the real value of it and mind you i have few millions of shares(and now don't go and check the shareholdings list to identify me...hehehe) and will keep it until real buyers come..today once a sudden buying pressure exerted all of you are excited about warrant 15..but last few days i was the only person who collected it and i knew very well no one was interested at buying it for 1.4 even though the voting traded at 2.7. so now some haphazardly at 1.5...i bought a lot today. not haphazardly. I bought smartly Because i know the profit i will get. history will repeat and when after some 4/5 days again when a sudden buying pressure comes no one will be able to buy at these prices and we will see many posts saying bought semb warrant 15 at 2 rupees will i be able to sell it at 2.1. so kalum the answer is brother don't get panic you will be able to sell it at 1.7 before December 12th if you have patience. mark my words. will tell all of you the cycle what is going to happen with regard to the warrant 15..It will be stagnated like this at present and will be a play ground for the traders like you and me. but in the coming days strategic and smart money will definitely come to the warrant 15 time to time. we are not sure whether the money inflow to the warrant is a money outflow of the voting share. if that happens warrant holders you are been manipulated by ----- you know...so if that happens be wise. be patient. and Don't panic sell ...read my early post for possible scenarios ..some one will make the voting down and make warrant down and from the entire money he can re enter warrant at a very attractive price. by the way Dr recently bought few millions at 1.3 . so entering again at 1.4/1.5 is not a big deal for him. but the other possible scenario is fresh smart money can come. so hope you all get the difference. if not will explain later. any how in the coming weeks this small surges due to inflow of smart money will match the price of warrant with the voting and it will repeat until end of November. by the beginning of December all the warrant holders will get a letter from the company stating that "Thank you very much.Please paw nodee warrants 15 subscribe karanna by paying 1 rupee and warrant 16 by 80 cents". so when people like me get this letter we will be the most happiest people since we know the value and on the spot return we going to get....Their might be people saying that voting will go down. But whatever happen it will not go beyond our(warrant 15 holders) cost. so at least we can sell at break even. but warrant 16 holders will get very panic. actually they should if not 'the god must be crazy'. so some of them will sell at market prices..Holy cow.....hahaha.....and seen this our ignorant warrant holders who become panic and the warrant holders who doesn't have cash to convert will sellout......all the dumb money will wipe out within minutes and the smart sri lanakan equity forum members(hehehe- not a joke . I am serious.hehehe) including you and me will inflow our smart money to absorb their dumb selling pressure...and this cycle will go until the last 3/2 and last day. I am 100% SURE SOME ONE- i don't know the name , but some one who has brain will buy the entire remaining to match the warrant with voting. If no one does it , at least i will do that..hehehe . since any tom will understand the value at the final minute.so it is a matter of patience and time...wait ,don't panic....you will win. wait and watch the game. it may drop to 1.3. but i will not sell even a 1 share.That is my logic. you take your decision at your own calculated risk levels. all the best. for today's worst case scenario. now the voting trades at 2.8 and the warrant at 1.4/1.5. just calculate whether you are in the losing side or winning side. even at 2.8 ...kalum you have bought the same voting share for 2.6(pretty smart kolla...ahhh)....jokes apart...please don't treat this a investment note to buy ,sell or hold. I stated what i would do if i were you..ADIOS.

PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME

cse.profit wrote:I will not say yes or no since it is not ethical to say so....but will tell you one thing if you trade wisely instead of the loss you can convert in to a humongous profit only trading with warrant 15. I am very bullish on thE warrant 15 with the current prices. I sold my holdings and re entered again at higher prices. It IS FOOLISH. isn't it.. No...once i came to my profit target i sold it . but then when i see the momentum builds up and i am sure of the direction of the momentum i entered even at a higher price. I will not sell it even at 1.5 since i know the real value of it and mind you i have few millions of shares(and now don't go and check the shareholdings list to identify me...hehehe) and will keep it until real buyers come..today once a sudden buying pressure exerted all of you are excited about warrant 15..but last few days i was the only person who collected it and i knew very well no one was interested at buying it for 1.4 even though the voting traded at 2.7. so now some haphazardly at 1.5...i bought a lot today. not haphazardly. I bought smartly Because i know the profit i will get. history will repeat and when after some 4/5 days again when a sudden buying pressure comes no one will be able to buy at these prices and we will see many posts saying bought semb warrant 15 at 2 rupees will i be able to sell it at 2.1. so kalum the answer is brother don't get panic you will be able to sell it at 1.7 before December 12th if you have patience. mark my words. will tell all of you the cycle what is going to happen with regard to the warrant 15..It will be stagnated like this at present and will be a play ground for the traders like you and me. but in the coming days strategic and smart money will definitely come to the warrant 15 time to time. we are not sure whether the money inflow to the warrant is a money outflow of the voting share. if that happens warrant holders you are been manipulated by ----- you know...so if that happens be wise. be patient. and Don't panic sell ...read my early post for possible scenarios ..some one will make the voting down and make warrant down and from the entire money he can re enter warrant at a very attractive price. by the way Dr recently bought few millions at 1.3 . so entering again at 1.4/1.5 is not a big deal for him. but the other possible scenario is fresh smart money can come. so hope you all get the difference. if not will explain later. any how in the coming weeks this small surges due to inflow of smart money will match the price of warrant with the voting and it will repeat until end of November. by the beginning of December all the warrant holders will get a letter from the company stating that "Thank you very much.Please paw nodee warrants 15 subscribe karanna by paying 1 rupee and warrant 16 by 80 cents". so when people like me get this letter we will be the most happiest people since we know the value and on the spot return we going to get....Their might be people saying that voting will go down. But whatever happen it will not go beyond our(warrant 15 holders) cost. so at least we can sell at break even. but warrant 16 holders will get very panic. actually they should if not 'the god must be crazy'. so some of them will sell at market prices..Holy cow.....hahaha.....and seen this our ignorant warrant holders who become panic and the warrant holders who doesn't have cash to convert will sellout......all the dumb money will wipe out within minutes and the smart sri lanakan equity forum members(hehehe- not a joke . I am serious.hehehe) including you and me will inflow our smart money to absorb their dumb selling pressure...and this cycle will go until the last 3/2 and last day. I am 100% SURE SOME ONE- i don't know the name , but some one who has brain will buy the entire remaining to match the warrant with voting. If no one does it , at least i will do that..hehehe . since any tom will understand the value at the final minute.so it is a matter of patience and time...wait ,don't panic....you will win. wait and watch the game. it may drop to 1.3. but i will not sell even a 1 share.That is my logic. you take your decision at your own calculated risk levels. all the best. for today's worst case scenario. now the voting trades at 2.8 and the warrant at 1.4/1.5. just calculate whether you are in the losing side or winning side. even at 2.8 ...kalum you have bought the same voting share for 2.6(pretty smart kolla...ahhh)....jokes apart...please don't treat this a investment note to buy ,sell or hold. I stated what i would do if i were you..ADIOS.

PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME

cse profit pls can you advise me ... i have stuck with w 16 @ .63 I got it when i was newcomer. I have 400000 shares . I can pay .80 for it but is it worth?

@chanwi- If i were u i would happily sell the 4 lax worth shares at 40 cents or if you can break and time your gtc orders very well even sell at 50 cents and get rid of the warrant as soon as possible. still if you want to play with this share you can buy back later and lower prices and gain massively. why i am saying so is look at the non voting share behavior. even at a a sudden surge in the voting shares the only share reacts with a significant positive co relation is the warrant 15. the upward momentum is very low compared to the downward momentum. in simple terms when the voting price goes up the non voting goes up. when the voting price go down the non voting goes down. so what you should remember in ind is that since the trading mentality(99% are traders) they all go for 10 cents gain and the rate which this increase in an upward trend is lesser than the rate which this decrease in an downward trend. I am talking about the valuable non voting share. so today the non voting was at 80 cents. my friend i am really happy that you are willing to convert this warrant buy paying additional 80 cents. what makes me happy about at least you know that you need to pay 80 cents for the warrant conversion. even some warrant 15 holders do the same mistake. they do the vice versa. Their are some warrant 15 holders and voting share holders who doesn't know that the theoretical price difference should be 1 rupee and whatever the theory is by the final 5 minutes of the warrant trading both warrants price will be matched(It might not totally match. but still the disparity would be much lesser when compared with the present market conditions) . so some warrant 15 holders exit with a 10 cents incremental. that is not wrong. but what is wrong is some of them doesn't know that the warrant 15 intrinsic value is 1.7(2.8-1). so may god bless all of the warrant holders. since the way i told semb non voting has a huge resistance when going upwards. just think what would happen when all your shares converted to the non voting after December. so their will be more shares. what will be your estimated selling price. will it be 1.4(.6+.. no my friend . that break even price is for you. people who bought this at 80 cents will easily even with a profit sell at 90 cents. so you will loose eventually. so my friend i can not explain this simpler than this... so if you really want to play with semb family exit with whatever the price you can from warrant 16 and invest on semb.x or the warrant 15. i will not say at which price to buy since i may be biased due to i have 2.5 million warrant 15 shares right now.so make your decision wisely. if you need further clarifications pm me.all the best.

you can further refer to this post to get an insight of possible scenarios which could occur.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t9694-semb-w-0015-unseen-analysis

all the best

rcharindu wrote:SEMB.N @2.9
SEMB.W0015@1.5
Different =2.9-1.5=1.4 (To convert the warrant to Voting it need 1rs) but still you can save .4
so SEMB.W0015 very attractive now...

All the credit goes to Cse.Profit for pointing this Gem for us.

Guys ..what will happen if SEMB N Goes down in dec beyoned these levels i mean if it comes down to 2.20 we are loosing
we pay 1.5 now for warrents & 1.0 later for it get transfered to a share ..2.50 is what our investment ..
then if the SEMB N drops down to 2.2..we are loosing

how ever with the cash inflow of WARRENTS TRNSFER i think its highly likely this share to move to 4-5 levels ...

It's all depend how SEMB.N moves...
W15 always follow the voting trend.so up to now W15 is much attractive than Voting.discount is about 15%.
i think all we have to do is monitor the movement of voting share.if the different goes below .3* hopefully we can exit at least marginal level.

I'm not a chart analysis expert but it clearly shows momentum is building up.

*[consider current prices SEMB.N =2.8,SEMB.W =1.5; different after conversion = 2.8-(1.5+1) = .3 ]

@ cse. profit

Thanks for your advice . I am out of Srilanka this forum really help me

I have a little doubt about how you calculate the stuff. I have seen some say that N.0000 is moving at this price and the conversion price is 1/= so W.0015 should trade at this price. But is it 100% correct to say that way. Because if a person like our good Doc is having shares for low avg values like 1.8 Per N & .8 per W his average cost for all will be around 1.8.(I'm not too sure about his averages. But we all know he first entered this when it's trading very low.) So if he decided to shed his stake at even 2.3 he gets a profit of .50 each but we get a loss of .10. For my knowledge i'm asking Can't That be happened guys.

all credit should go to cse.profit...... sharing ur knowledge with us..............thank u very much bro.......

nice stuff cse.profit

Thanks cse.profit