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The Sri Lankan economy achieved an impressive growth of 8 per cent during the first half of 2011 compared to the growth of 7.8 per cent in the first half of 2010. This growth was entirely attributable to the strong performance in Industry and Services sectors as Agricultural sector showed a setback due to adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the year. The Industry sector recorded a remarkable growth of 10.3 per cent, compared to the 8 per cent growth in 2010 with increased performance in both domestic and export market oriented industries. The Services sector grew by a healthy 9.1 per cent compared to the growth of 7.6 per cent achieved during the first half of 2010, largely reflecting improved performance in trade, tourism and transport related activities. Agricultural production contracted by 1.8 per cent, compared to the growth of 7.8 per cent recorded during first half of 2010, mainly due to the impact of adverse weather conditions on paddy production and on several other field crops. The economy is expected to grow by around 8.3 per cent in 2011, with positive contributions from all three sectors.
Total gross investment of the country is projected to increase to 29.5 per cent of GDP in 2011 from 27.8 per cent in 2010. Private sector investment is expected to increase, particularly in the areas of tourism, telecommunications, manufacturing, construction and housing development. The post conflict improvement in investor confidence, strengthened macroeconomic conditions and improved infrastructure facilities are expected to encourage private investment. The continuation of the public investment programme, including major infrastructure development projects as well as regional infrastructure development activities, will also support to achieve a higher level of investment. FDI recorded a significant increase during the first half of 2011, compared to corresponding period of the previous year, and is expected to increase further during the remaining period of the year.
The increased investment is expected largely from foreign sources as domestic savings are projected to decline marginally to around 18 per cent of GDP in 2011 compared to 18.7 per cent in 2010. The decline in domestic savings is mainly due to the expected higher growth in consumption, including the increased import demand. However, dissavings of the government are projected to decline to 1.2 per cent of GDP from 2.1 per cent in the previous year. Meanwhile, national savings are projected to increase to 25.1 per cent of GDP from 24.7 per cent in 2010, mainly due to an increase in net private transfers from abroad.
Inflation continued to remain at a single digit level during the first ten months of 2011. Year-on-year inflation as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) (2006/2007=100) was 5.1 per cent in October 2011, while the annual average rate of inflation was 7.1 per cent. Improvements in domestic food supply, including from the Northern and Eastern provinces, supported by favourable weather conditions since the second quarter of the year moderated supply side price pressures. Meanwhile, continuous liquidity management efforts of the Central Bank contained the buildup of demand side inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to remain at mid single digit level by the end of 2011.
The improved macroeconomic conditions of the economy facilitated in improving the sovereign rating and foreign investor confidence. International rating agencies namely, Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s Ratings (S&P) upgraded the sovereign rating for Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka successfully issued the fourth international sovereign bond of US dollars 1 billion, which attracted an order book of over seven and a half times. Meanwhile, the IMF-SBA programme was continued successfully and Sri Lanka has received seven tranches totaling US dollars 1,707 million under the facility. Observing the successful implementation of the programme the IMF has announced that the reviews under the SBA facility would be held semi-annually instead of quarterly, effective from March 2011.
The external sector strengthened further benefiting from favourable macroeconomic developments, strong external demand and increased investor confidence. External trade, which rebounded in 2010, showed an impressive growth during the first eight months of 2011. Earnings from exports as well as expenditure on imports increased during the period, spurred by higher commodity prices and increased volumes. Year-on-year, earnings from exports grew by 28.2 per cent to US dollars 6,966 million by August 2011 while expenditure on imports grew by 50.6 per cent to US dollars 12,926 million. Increased earnings from textiles and garments, tea, rubber products, petroleum products as well as food and beverages contributed mainly to the growth in export earnings. The largest contribution to the increase in import expenditure was from petroleum imports reflecting higher international oil prices compared to the previous year, while textiles and garments, machinery and equipment, transport equipment and food and beverages also contributed to the increase in import expenditure. Motor vehicle imports increased substantially reflecting the impact of the reduction of import taxes by the government. The high growth in import expenditure, compared to the growth in export earnings, resulted in an expansion in the trade deficit by 53 per cent to US dollars 5,960 million during the first eight months of the year, compared to the corresponding period in 2010.
The surplus in the services account increased notably by 47.6 per cent during the first half of 2011, mainly due to the expansion in transportation and travel sub sectors. The main contributor to the services account, the transportation sub-sector, which consists of passenger fares, freight, port and airport related earnings, performed well during the first six months of the year, recording a net inflow of US dollars 199 million.
The tourism sector showed an impressive growth during the first nine months of 2011. Tourist arrivals increased by 34.3 per cent to 598,006 while earnings from tourism increased by 48.1 per cent to US dollars 580 million during the first nine months compared to the corresponding period of 2010. Average spending per tourist per night increased from US dollars 88 in 2010 to US dollars 97 during the period under review.
The surplus in the services account increased notably by 47.6 per cent during the first half of 2011, mainly due to the expansion in transportation and travel sub sectors. The main contributor to the services account, the transportation sub-sector, which consists of passenger fares, freight, port and airport related earnings, performed well during the first six months of the year, recording a net inflow of US dollars 199 million.
The tourism sector showed an impressive growth during the first nine months of 2011. Tourist arrivals increased by 34.3 per cent to 598,006 while earnings from tourism increased by 48.1 per cent to US dollars 580 million during the first nine months compared to the corresponding period of 2010. Average spending per tourist per night increased from US dollars 88 in 2010 to US dollars 97 during the period under review.
The deficit in the income account contracted significantly to US dollars 55 million during the first six months of 2011, compared to the deficit of US dollars 354 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2010. The inflows on account of interest and other charges increased by about eightfold during the first six months of 2011. Interest earned from the investment of a higher level of foreign exchange reserves, profits earned on trading of securities and foreign exchange and gains from the valuation of trading securities on mark-to-market basis in US dollar terms contributed to the increased inflows from interest and other charges. During the first six months of 2011, repatriation of profits and dividends by investors in FDI enterprises amounted to US dollars 172 million. However, a considerable portion of repatriable profits and dividends has been reinvested in those enterprises facilitating expansion of existing operations.
Workers’ remittances, a key foreign exchange earner and a stable source of external financing for Sri Lanka, continued to grow at a higher rate. Workers’ remittances grew by 27.2 per cent to US dollars 3,381 million during the first eight months of 2011. This reflects higher inflows from official channels, partly due to repatriation of savings by migrants owing to uncertainity prevailed in the Middle East countries at the beginning of the year.
The external current account recorded a deficit of US dollars 1,569 million in the first half of 2011 compared to a deficit of US dollars 848 million in the corresponding period of 2010. The higher current account deficit reflected the expansion in trade deficit. However, about two thirds of the deficit in the trade account was offset by worker remittences and the surplus in the services account.
The realised Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), including loans, during the first half of 2011 increased to US dollars 413 million compared to US dollars 208 million in the corresponding period of 2010. Most inflows of FDIs were into the tourism sector, especially to the hotel and shopping complex projects. The value of committed investments on account of contracted projects increased in the first half of 2011 compared to the corresponding period in 2010, indicating future prospects of the realisation of FDIs.
Foreign financial inflows to the government increased during the first eight months of 2011. Total foreign inflows to the government included long term loans, proceeds of the sale of Treasury bills and Treasury bonds to non-residents and receipts of grants. Accordingly, total foreign inflows to the government amounted to US dollars 3,113 million. Higher foreign loan inflows during the period reflect the faster disbursement of foreign loans to finance major infrastructure development projects.
Despite the higher current account deficit, higher inflows to the capital and financial account resulted in a BOP surplus of US dollars 944 million by the end August 2011. Accordingly, gross official reserves (excluding ACU balances) increased to US dollars 8,051 million by end August 2011 from US dollars 6,610 million by end 2010. The proceeds of the fourth international sovereign bond issue and other inflows to the government and the private sector largely contributed to the improvement in official reserves. Gross official reserves by end August 2011 were equivalent to 5.4 months of imports.
Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating was upgraded by international credit rating agencies. Fitch Ratings upgraded Sri Lanka’s long term foreign and local currency issuer default rating and the country ceiling from B+ to BB-, while Standard & Poor’s Ratings and Moody’s Investor Services raised the outlook on Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to positive from stable.
The exchange rate policy in 2011 focused on maintaining stability in the domestic foreign exchange market. Even though the rupee slightly appreciated against the US dollar (by 1.3 per cent) up to July 2011, it depreciated (by 0.6 per cent) from August to September reflecting higher demand for foreign exchange in the market, owing mainly to the settlement of large import bills including oil bills. Accordingly, during the first nine months, the rupee appreciated marginally by 0.7 per cent against the US dollar. The Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market by supplying foreign exchange on net basis to avoid excessive volatility in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, reflecting cross currency movements the rupee appreciated against the Indian rupee (by 10.2 per cent), while depreciating against the Euro (by 1.2 per cent), the pound sterling (by 0.3 per cent) and Japanese yen (by 5.4 per cent) during the first nine months of 2011. Both the 5-currency and 24-currency Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) indices appreciated by 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, by end September 2011. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indices based on these two currency baskets also appreciated by 1.4 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, during the first nine months reflecting the appreciation of the year.
Fiscal policy in 2011 was mainly focused on further strengthening the fiscal consolidation as per the targets set out in the Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework (MTMFF), and reducing the budget deficit from 8 per cent in 2010 to 6.8 per cent in 2011. It envisaged creating an environment where investment could be enhanced to support the projected higher economic growth by accelerating on going infrastructure projects. The improvement in the overall fiscal situation was mainly expected through increased government revenue, and containment of recurrent expenditure while maintaining public investment at a targeted level.
The budget for 2011 included far reaching reforms to simplify the tax structure while broadening the tax base to improve revenue mobilisation. Measures were taken to rationalise the income tax structure by reducing marginal tax rates for personal income tax and raising the tax free threshold, with a view to improving tax collection. Further, the base for income taxation was widened with the extension of the PAYE tax to public sector employees. To create a level playing field, all tax incentives were brought under the Inland Revenue Act, other than those that are identified as strategically important and approved by the Cabinet of Ministers. Meanwhile, the VAT system was simplified by replacing multiple tax rates with a single tax rate of 12 per cent. Several initiatives were also taken to improve tax administration. A Tax Appeals Commission was also set up to expedite the appeal process.
With respect to government expenditure, the government mainly focused on containing current expenditure while sustaining public investment at a healthy level to improve infrastructure facilities in order to support the expansion in economic activity. Efforts were made to restrain current expenditure during the period, in spite of the upward revision of the salaries of public sector employees at the begining of the year. Meanwhile, the public investment programme of the government continued uninterrupted mainly with the accelerated implementation of several mega infrastructure projects. Government investment focused mainly on road development and other key strategic areas, such as ports, power and energy, irrigation and water supply and sanitation. In addition, flood related reconstruction of irrigation facilities and roads, and the successful continuation of rural development initiatives such as "Gama Neguma" and "Maga Neguma" as well as the development initiatives in the Northern Province under "Uthuru Wasanthaya" contributed to the increase in capital expenditure.
Government revenue during the first eight months of 2011 continued to improve due to the increase in collection of both tax and non-tax revenue reflecting continued expansion in economic activity and external trade. Total revenue increased by 16.2 per cent to Rs. 576 billion during the period. As a percentage of estimated GDP, government revenue for the first eight months of 2011 remained at 8.8 per cent as in the corresponding period of 2010.
Meanwhile, total expenditure and net lending during the first eight months of 2011 contained at 14.3 per cent of GDP compared to 14.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year, although in nominal terms, it increased by 13.9 per cent to Rs.931 billion during the period. More importantly recurrent expenditure declined to 10.6 per cent of GDP during this period from 11.3 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure and net lending during this period increased to 3.7 per cent of GDP from 3.3 per cent of GDP during the corresponding period of 2010, reflecting the government’s commitment to infrastructure development.
According to the budget for 2011, the overall deficit is expected to reduce to 6.8 per cent of GDP from 8 per cent in 2010. During the first eight months of 2011 the overall fiscal deficit declined to 5.3 per cent of GDP from 5.6 per cent in the same period of 2010. The deficit was mainly financed through domestic sources with bank financing accounting for around 60 per cent of total domestic financing. Foreign financing, including part of the proceeds of the International Sovereign Bond were utilised to bridge the remaining resource gap.
As announced in the "Road Map: Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2011 and Beyond", a more dynamic monetary policy strategy including a parallel monetary analysis and an economic analysis was adopted by the Central Bank. Accordingly, in addition to trends in monetary and credit aggregates, developments in all other sectors, including supply side developments and global economic performance and risks, are reviewed to assess the overall impact on current and expected domestic price movements. This strategy helped to assess the impact of the structural change the economy has begun to undergo following the end of the conflict.
Benign inflation and inflation outlook at the beginning of 2011 enabled the Central Bank to reduce its policy interest rates, the Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate, by 25 basis points and 50 basis points, respectively, in January 2011. Since then the Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate have remained unchanged at 7.00 per cent and 8.50 per cent, respectively. Excess liquidity in the market remained high at the beginning of the year and considering its adverse impact on future monetary expansion and inflation, the Central Bank raised the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) on all rupee deposit liabilities of commercial banks by 1 percentage point to 8 per cent in April 2011 and absorbed permanently about Rs. 18 billion.
Broad money continued to expand at a rapid pace during the first eight months of the year. By September 2011, year-on-year growth in M2b was 20.7 per cent compared to 15.8 per cent growth recorded in December 2010. The expansion in broad money was entirely due to the increase in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the banking system as reflected by higher growth in credit to the private sector and the government during the period. Credit to the private sector grew steadily with an average rate of 31.9 per cent during the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, credit to the government increased by Rs.169.2 billion during the period.
The market interest rates remained largely stable during the first ten months of 2011. The Average Weighted Call Money Rate (AWCMR) which was 8.03 per cent at end 2010 showed minor fluctuations before moving up in September due to the decline in excess market liquidity and uneven distribution in market liquidity among banks. To maintain stability in the short term money market, OMO auctions were recommenced in September and together with some increase in market liquidity, AWCMR became stable remaining at around 8.05 per cent by end October. The yield rates of government securities that declined in response to the reduction in policy interest rates in January 2011 trended downwards until end April 2011 and remained stable thereafter, before increasing again since mid-September. The yield rates of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bills remained at 7.29 per cent, 7.35 per cent, and 7.44 per cent, respectively, by end October 2011 compared with 7.24 per cent, 7.35 per cent, and 7.55 per cent prevailed at end 2010. Considering the improved investment climate, the government issued Treasury bonds with different maturities at lower yield rates compared to end 2010. The primary market yield rates of Treasury bonds ranged from 7.77 per cent at the short end (two years) to 9.30 per cent at the long end (ten years) . The monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR), which reflects lending rates offered by commercial banks to the most creditworthy customers, increased by 6 basis points to 9.33 per cent by October 2011. However, the Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR), declined to 13.62 per cent in September 2011 compared to 14.8 per cent at end 2010. Meanwhile, the Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) remained between 6.23 - 6.57 per cent during January to October 2011, while the Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) remained between 8.11 - 8.24 per cent during the same period.
The activities of banks and other financial institutions expanded during the first eight months of the year, facilitating expanding economic activities as reflected in the accelerated demand for credit. The number of banking outlets increased further expanding the access to finance. Also, the soundness of financial institutions in terms of capital, liquidity, profitability and asset quality improved further during the period. The regulatory and prudential framework of the financial sector was further strengthened while the capital adequacy ratios were maintained well above regulatory requirements and international standards. Overall, the banking sector remained stable, with its financial soundness indicators maintained at a healthy level. Meanwhile, the key payment and settlement system operated with a high degree of availability and safety, facilitating transactions in the financial sector. The proposed Finance Business Act to replace the Finance Companies Act was passed by the Parliament while the proposed amendments to the Banking Act were approved by the Cabinet of Ministers.
International Economic Environment
The growth projections of the global economy have been revised downward in September in the midst of growing economic uncertainties. The world economy is expected to grow by 4.0 per cent in 2011 as well as in 2012, marginally lower than the IMF’s April forecast of 4.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent in 2011 and in 2012, respectively. Emerging and developing economies continue to be the engine of world economic growth, expanding by around 6.4 per cent in 2011 and 6.1 per cent in 2012.
With appropriate policy measures inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies is projected to decline in 2012 as food and energy prices are expected to moderate. In advanced economies, inflation is forecast to be about 2.5 per cent in 2011 and expected to decline to 1.5 per cent in 2012. In emerging and developing economies, headline inflation is expected to settle at about 7.5 per cent in 2011 and 6 per cent in 2012. However, underlying inflation is expected to be high, mainly in emerging and developing economies, due to second round effects on wages from food and energy price hikes.
Prospects for 2012
The economy of Sri Lanka is projected to grow at around 8.5-9.0 per cent in 2012 and the growth is expected to be broad based with positive contributions from all key sectors of the economy. The Agriculture sector is expected to enhance its contribution to overall economic growth benefiting from further expansion of the extent of cultivation in the Northern and Eastern provinces, improved productivity and support services provided by the government. The Industry sector would also expand in 2012, particularly with the contribution from the expansion in factory industry output with the expected increase in demand being generated from both domestic and international markets, and the contribution from increased construction activity, food processing, rubber based industries and new industries such as ship and boat building. Meanwhile, the Services sector is projected to expand with positive contributions from all sub-sectors including domestic and foreign trade, tourism, transportation, telecommunications and financial services.
Inflation is targeted to maintain at mid-single digit levels in 2012. Money supply would be maintained at a level compatible with the expected growth in the nominal GDP in 2012. Increased domestic agricultural production and the expected stabilisation of commodity prices including crude oil prices in the international market are expected to reduce the pressure on domestic prices. The sluggish recovery in many advanced economies with renewed uncertainties, and its impact on global demand is likely to contain increases in commodity prices globally, including the price of petroleum. These together with continued fiscal consolidation and timely monetary policy action to mitigate any demand driven inflationary pressures would ensure achieving a low and stable inflation in 2012.
Sri Lanka’s external sector is expected to improve further, recording a moderate surplus in the overall balance of the BOP in 2012. Both exports and imports in 2012 are expected to grow at a lower rate than in 2011, mainly due to the high base in 2011. Exports are projected to grow at around 14 per cent with higher value addition, diversification of export products and markets, and supported by the gradual recovery of the world economy. Imports are projected to grow at around 10 per cent with continued demand for intermediate and investment goods arising from increased economic activity including in the Northern and Eastern provinces, low tariff rates, improved performance in the tourism sector, and the continuation of major infrastructure projects. Foreign inflows to the services account are expected to improve further in 2012, facilitated by higher earnings from tourism, improved port and airport related activity and information technology services. The current account deficit is projected to be around 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2012, lower than the deficit in 2011. The overall BOP is expected to record a surplus and the gross official reserves would remain high equivalent to around 5 months of imports."
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Total gross investment of the country is projected to increase to 29.5 per cent of GDP in 2011 from 27.8 per cent in 2010. Private sector investment is expected to increase, particularly in the areas of tourism, telecommunications, manufacturing, construction and housing development. The post conflict improvement in investor confidence, strengthened macroeconomic conditions and improved infrastructure facilities are expected to encourage private investment. The continuation of the public investment programme, including major infrastructure development projects as well as regional infrastructure development activities, will also support to achieve a higher level of investment. FDI recorded a significant increase during the first half of 2011, compared to corresponding period of the previous year, and is expected to increase further during the remaining period of the year.
The increased investment is expected largely from foreign sources as domestic savings are projected to decline marginally to around 18 per cent of GDP in 2011 compared to 18.7 per cent in 2010. The decline in domestic savings is mainly due to the expected higher growth in consumption, including the increased import demand. However, dissavings of the government are projected to decline to 1.2 per cent of GDP from 2.1 per cent in the previous year. Meanwhile, national savings are projected to increase to 25.1 per cent of GDP from 24.7 per cent in 2010, mainly due to an increase in net private transfers from abroad.
Inflation continued to remain at a single digit level during the first ten months of 2011. Year-on-year inflation as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) (2006/2007=100) was 5.1 per cent in October 2011, while the annual average rate of inflation was 7.1 per cent. Improvements in domestic food supply, including from the Northern and Eastern provinces, supported by favourable weather conditions since the second quarter of the year moderated supply side price pressures. Meanwhile, continuous liquidity management efforts of the Central Bank contained the buildup of demand side inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to remain at mid single digit level by the end of 2011.
The improved macroeconomic conditions of the economy facilitated in improving the sovereign rating and foreign investor confidence. International rating agencies namely, Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s Ratings (S&P) upgraded the sovereign rating for Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka successfully issued the fourth international sovereign bond of US dollars 1 billion, which attracted an order book of over seven and a half times. Meanwhile, the IMF-SBA programme was continued successfully and Sri Lanka has received seven tranches totaling US dollars 1,707 million under the facility. Observing the successful implementation of the programme the IMF has announced that the reviews under the SBA facility would be held semi-annually instead of quarterly, effective from March 2011.
The external sector strengthened further benefiting from favourable macroeconomic developments, strong external demand and increased investor confidence. External trade, which rebounded in 2010, showed an impressive growth during the first eight months of 2011. Earnings from exports as well as expenditure on imports increased during the period, spurred by higher commodity prices and increased volumes. Year-on-year, earnings from exports grew by 28.2 per cent to US dollars 6,966 million by August 2011 while expenditure on imports grew by 50.6 per cent to US dollars 12,926 million. Increased earnings from textiles and garments, tea, rubber products, petroleum products as well as food and beverages contributed mainly to the growth in export earnings. The largest contribution to the increase in import expenditure was from petroleum imports reflecting higher international oil prices compared to the previous year, while textiles and garments, machinery and equipment, transport equipment and food and beverages also contributed to the increase in import expenditure. Motor vehicle imports increased substantially reflecting the impact of the reduction of import taxes by the government. The high growth in import expenditure, compared to the growth in export earnings, resulted in an expansion in the trade deficit by 53 per cent to US dollars 5,960 million during the first eight months of the year, compared to the corresponding period in 2010.
The surplus in the services account increased notably by 47.6 per cent during the first half of 2011, mainly due to the expansion in transportation and travel sub sectors. The main contributor to the services account, the transportation sub-sector, which consists of passenger fares, freight, port and airport related earnings, performed well during the first six months of the year, recording a net inflow of US dollars 199 million.
The tourism sector showed an impressive growth during the first nine months of 2011. Tourist arrivals increased by 34.3 per cent to 598,006 while earnings from tourism increased by 48.1 per cent to US dollars 580 million during the first nine months compared to the corresponding period of 2010. Average spending per tourist per night increased from US dollars 88 in 2010 to US dollars 97 during the period under review.
The surplus in the services account increased notably by 47.6 per cent during the first half of 2011, mainly due to the expansion in transportation and travel sub sectors. The main contributor to the services account, the transportation sub-sector, which consists of passenger fares, freight, port and airport related earnings, performed well during the first six months of the year, recording a net inflow of US dollars 199 million.
The tourism sector showed an impressive growth during the first nine months of 2011. Tourist arrivals increased by 34.3 per cent to 598,006 while earnings from tourism increased by 48.1 per cent to US dollars 580 million during the first nine months compared to the corresponding period of 2010. Average spending per tourist per night increased from US dollars 88 in 2010 to US dollars 97 during the period under review.
The deficit in the income account contracted significantly to US dollars 55 million during the first six months of 2011, compared to the deficit of US dollars 354 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2010. The inflows on account of interest and other charges increased by about eightfold during the first six months of 2011. Interest earned from the investment of a higher level of foreign exchange reserves, profits earned on trading of securities and foreign exchange and gains from the valuation of trading securities on mark-to-market basis in US dollar terms contributed to the increased inflows from interest and other charges. During the first six months of 2011, repatriation of profits and dividends by investors in FDI enterprises amounted to US dollars 172 million. However, a considerable portion of repatriable profits and dividends has been reinvested in those enterprises facilitating expansion of existing operations.
Workers’ remittances, a key foreign exchange earner and a stable source of external financing for Sri Lanka, continued to grow at a higher rate. Workers’ remittances grew by 27.2 per cent to US dollars 3,381 million during the first eight months of 2011. This reflects higher inflows from official channels, partly due to repatriation of savings by migrants owing to uncertainity prevailed in the Middle East countries at the beginning of the year.
The external current account recorded a deficit of US dollars 1,569 million in the first half of 2011 compared to a deficit of US dollars 848 million in the corresponding period of 2010. The higher current account deficit reflected the expansion in trade deficit. However, about two thirds of the deficit in the trade account was offset by worker remittences and the surplus in the services account.
The realised Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), including loans, during the first half of 2011 increased to US dollars 413 million compared to US dollars 208 million in the corresponding period of 2010. Most inflows of FDIs were into the tourism sector, especially to the hotel and shopping complex projects. The value of committed investments on account of contracted projects increased in the first half of 2011 compared to the corresponding period in 2010, indicating future prospects of the realisation of FDIs.
Foreign financial inflows to the government increased during the first eight months of 2011. Total foreign inflows to the government included long term loans, proceeds of the sale of Treasury bills and Treasury bonds to non-residents and receipts of grants. Accordingly, total foreign inflows to the government amounted to US dollars 3,113 million. Higher foreign loan inflows during the period reflect the faster disbursement of foreign loans to finance major infrastructure development projects.
Despite the higher current account deficit, higher inflows to the capital and financial account resulted in a BOP surplus of US dollars 944 million by the end August 2011. Accordingly, gross official reserves (excluding ACU balances) increased to US dollars 8,051 million by end August 2011 from US dollars 6,610 million by end 2010. The proceeds of the fourth international sovereign bond issue and other inflows to the government and the private sector largely contributed to the improvement in official reserves. Gross official reserves by end August 2011 were equivalent to 5.4 months of imports.
Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating was upgraded by international credit rating agencies. Fitch Ratings upgraded Sri Lanka’s long term foreign and local currency issuer default rating and the country ceiling from B+ to BB-, while Standard & Poor’s Ratings and Moody’s Investor Services raised the outlook on Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to positive from stable.
The exchange rate policy in 2011 focused on maintaining stability in the domestic foreign exchange market. Even though the rupee slightly appreciated against the US dollar (by 1.3 per cent) up to July 2011, it depreciated (by 0.6 per cent) from August to September reflecting higher demand for foreign exchange in the market, owing mainly to the settlement of large import bills including oil bills. Accordingly, during the first nine months, the rupee appreciated marginally by 0.7 per cent against the US dollar. The Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market by supplying foreign exchange on net basis to avoid excessive volatility in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, reflecting cross currency movements the rupee appreciated against the Indian rupee (by 10.2 per cent), while depreciating against the Euro (by 1.2 per cent), the pound sterling (by 0.3 per cent) and Japanese yen (by 5.4 per cent) during the first nine months of 2011. Both the 5-currency and 24-currency Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) indices appreciated by 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, by end September 2011. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indices based on these two currency baskets also appreciated by 1.4 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, during the first nine months reflecting the appreciation of the year.
Fiscal policy in 2011 was mainly focused on further strengthening the fiscal consolidation as per the targets set out in the Medium Term Macro Fiscal Framework (MTMFF), and reducing the budget deficit from 8 per cent in 2010 to 6.8 per cent in 2011. It envisaged creating an environment where investment could be enhanced to support the projected higher economic growth by accelerating on going infrastructure projects. The improvement in the overall fiscal situation was mainly expected through increased government revenue, and containment of recurrent expenditure while maintaining public investment at a targeted level.
The budget for 2011 included far reaching reforms to simplify the tax structure while broadening the tax base to improve revenue mobilisation. Measures were taken to rationalise the income tax structure by reducing marginal tax rates for personal income tax and raising the tax free threshold, with a view to improving tax collection. Further, the base for income taxation was widened with the extension of the PAYE tax to public sector employees. To create a level playing field, all tax incentives were brought under the Inland Revenue Act, other than those that are identified as strategically important and approved by the Cabinet of Ministers. Meanwhile, the VAT system was simplified by replacing multiple tax rates with a single tax rate of 12 per cent. Several initiatives were also taken to improve tax administration. A Tax Appeals Commission was also set up to expedite the appeal process.
With respect to government expenditure, the government mainly focused on containing current expenditure while sustaining public investment at a healthy level to improve infrastructure facilities in order to support the expansion in economic activity. Efforts were made to restrain current expenditure during the period, in spite of the upward revision of the salaries of public sector employees at the begining of the year. Meanwhile, the public investment programme of the government continued uninterrupted mainly with the accelerated implementation of several mega infrastructure projects. Government investment focused mainly on road development and other key strategic areas, such as ports, power and energy, irrigation and water supply and sanitation. In addition, flood related reconstruction of irrigation facilities and roads, and the successful continuation of rural development initiatives such as "Gama Neguma" and "Maga Neguma" as well as the development initiatives in the Northern Province under "Uthuru Wasanthaya" contributed to the increase in capital expenditure.
Government revenue during the first eight months of 2011 continued to improve due to the increase in collection of both tax and non-tax revenue reflecting continued expansion in economic activity and external trade. Total revenue increased by 16.2 per cent to Rs. 576 billion during the period. As a percentage of estimated GDP, government revenue for the first eight months of 2011 remained at 8.8 per cent as in the corresponding period of 2010.
Meanwhile, total expenditure and net lending during the first eight months of 2011 contained at 14.3 per cent of GDP compared to 14.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year, although in nominal terms, it increased by 13.9 per cent to Rs.931 billion during the period. More importantly recurrent expenditure declined to 10.6 per cent of GDP during this period from 11.3 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure and net lending during this period increased to 3.7 per cent of GDP from 3.3 per cent of GDP during the corresponding period of 2010, reflecting the government’s commitment to infrastructure development.
According to the budget for 2011, the overall deficit is expected to reduce to 6.8 per cent of GDP from 8 per cent in 2010. During the first eight months of 2011 the overall fiscal deficit declined to 5.3 per cent of GDP from 5.6 per cent in the same period of 2010. The deficit was mainly financed through domestic sources with bank financing accounting for around 60 per cent of total domestic financing. Foreign financing, including part of the proceeds of the International Sovereign Bond were utilised to bridge the remaining resource gap.
As announced in the "Road Map: Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2011 and Beyond", a more dynamic monetary policy strategy including a parallel monetary analysis and an economic analysis was adopted by the Central Bank. Accordingly, in addition to trends in monetary and credit aggregates, developments in all other sectors, including supply side developments and global economic performance and risks, are reviewed to assess the overall impact on current and expected domestic price movements. This strategy helped to assess the impact of the structural change the economy has begun to undergo following the end of the conflict.
Benign inflation and inflation outlook at the beginning of 2011 enabled the Central Bank to reduce its policy interest rates, the Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate, by 25 basis points and 50 basis points, respectively, in January 2011. Since then the Repurchase rate and the Reverse Repurchase rate have remained unchanged at 7.00 per cent and 8.50 per cent, respectively. Excess liquidity in the market remained high at the beginning of the year and considering its adverse impact on future monetary expansion and inflation, the Central Bank raised the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) on all rupee deposit liabilities of commercial banks by 1 percentage point to 8 per cent in April 2011 and absorbed permanently about Rs. 18 billion.
Broad money continued to expand at a rapid pace during the first eight months of the year. By September 2011, year-on-year growth in M2b was 20.7 per cent compared to 15.8 per cent growth recorded in December 2010. The expansion in broad money was entirely due to the increase in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the banking system as reflected by higher growth in credit to the private sector and the government during the period. Credit to the private sector grew steadily with an average rate of 31.9 per cent during the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, credit to the government increased by Rs.169.2 billion during the period.
The market interest rates remained largely stable during the first ten months of 2011. The Average Weighted Call Money Rate (AWCMR) which was 8.03 per cent at end 2010 showed minor fluctuations before moving up in September due to the decline in excess market liquidity and uneven distribution in market liquidity among banks. To maintain stability in the short term money market, OMO auctions were recommenced in September and together with some increase in market liquidity, AWCMR became stable remaining at around 8.05 per cent by end October. The yield rates of government securities that declined in response to the reduction in policy interest rates in January 2011 trended downwards until end April 2011 and remained stable thereafter, before increasing again since mid-September. The yield rates of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bills remained at 7.29 per cent, 7.35 per cent, and 7.44 per cent, respectively, by end October 2011 compared with 7.24 per cent, 7.35 per cent, and 7.55 per cent prevailed at end 2010. Considering the improved investment climate, the government issued Treasury bonds with different maturities at lower yield rates compared to end 2010. The primary market yield rates of Treasury bonds ranged from 7.77 per cent at the short end (two years) to 9.30 per cent at the long end (ten years) . The monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR), which reflects lending rates offered by commercial banks to the most creditworthy customers, increased by 6 basis points to 9.33 per cent by October 2011. However, the Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR), declined to 13.62 per cent in September 2011 compared to 14.8 per cent at end 2010. Meanwhile, the Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) remained between 6.23 - 6.57 per cent during January to October 2011, while the Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) remained between 8.11 - 8.24 per cent during the same period.
The activities of banks and other financial institutions expanded during the first eight months of the year, facilitating expanding economic activities as reflected in the accelerated demand for credit. The number of banking outlets increased further expanding the access to finance. Also, the soundness of financial institutions in terms of capital, liquidity, profitability and asset quality improved further during the period. The regulatory and prudential framework of the financial sector was further strengthened while the capital adequacy ratios were maintained well above regulatory requirements and international standards. Overall, the banking sector remained stable, with its financial soundness indicators maintained at a healthy level. Meanwhile, the key payment and settlement system operated with a high degree of availability and safety, facilitating transactions in the financial sector. The proposed Finance Business Act to replace the Finance Companies Act was passed by the Parliament while the proposed amendments to the Banking Act were approved by the Cabinet of Ministers.
International Economic Environment
The growth projections of the global economy have been revised downward in September in the midst of growing economic uncertainties. The world economy is expected to grow by 4.0 per cent in 2011 as well as in 2012, marginally lower than the IMF’s April forecast of 4.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent and 1.9 per cent in 2011 and in 2012, respectively. Emerging and developing economies continue to be the engine of world economic growth, expanding by around 6.4 per cent in 2011 and 6.1 per cent in 2012.
With appropriate policy measures inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies is projected to decline in 2012 as food and energy prices are expected to moderate. In advanced economies, inflation is forecast to be about 2.5 per cent in 2011 and expected to decline to 1.5 per cent in 2012. In emerging and developing economies, headline inflation is expected to settle at about 7.5 per cent in 2011 and 6 per cent in 2012. However, underlying inflation is expected to be high, mainly in emerging and developing economies, due to second round effects on wages from food and energy price hikes.
Prospects for 2012
The economy of Sri Lanka is projected to grow at around 8.5-9.0 per cent in 2012 and the growth is expected to be broad based with positive contributions from all key sectors of the economy. The Agriculture sector is expected to enhance its contribution to overall economic growth benefiting from further expansion of the extent of cultivation in the Northern and Eastern provinces, improved productivity and support services provided by the government. The Industry sector would also expand in 2012, particularly with the contribution from the expansion in factory industry output with the expected increase in demand being generated from both domestic and international markets, and the contribution from increased construction activity, food processing, rubber based industries and new industries such as ship and boat building. Meanwhile, the Services sector is projected to expand with positive contributions from all sub-sectors including domestic and foreign trade, tourism, transportation, telecommunications and financial services.
Inflation is targeted to maintain at mid-single digit levels in 2012. Money supply would be maintained at a level compatible with the expected growth in the nominal GDP in 2012. Increased domestic agricultural production and the expected stabilisation of commodity prices including crude oil prices in the international market are expected to reduce the pressure on domestic prices. The sluggish recovery in many advanced economies with renewed uncertainties, and its impact on global demand is likely to contain increases in commodity prices globally, including the price of petroleum. These together with continued fiscal consolidation and timely monetary policy action to mitigate any demand driven inflationary pressures would ensure achieving a low and stable inflation in 2012.
Sri Lanka’s external sector is expected to improve further, recording a moderate surplus in the overall balance of the BOP in 2012. Both exports and imports in 2012 are expected to grow at a lower rate than in 2011, mainly due to the high base in 2011. Exports are projected to grow at around 14 per cent with higher value addition, diversification of export products and markets, and supported by the gradual recovery of the world economy. Imports are projected to grow at around 10 per cent with continued demand for intermediate and investment goods arising from increased economic activity including in the Northern and Eastern provinces, low tariff rates, improved performance in the tourism sector, and the continuation of major infrastructure projects. Foreign inflows to the services account are expected to improve further in 2012, facilitated by higher earnings from tourism, improved port and airport related activity and information technology services. The current account deficit is projected to be around 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2012, lower than the deficit in 2011. The overall BOP is expected to record a surplus and the gross official reserves would remain high equivalent to around 5 months of imports."
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