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Sri Lankan Trade Deficit Widens In October

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1Sri Lankan Trade Deficit Widens In October Empty Sri Lankan Trade Deficit Widens In October Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:23 am

thilankad

thilankad
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Sri Lanka's merchandise trade deficit increased from last year in October, data released by the central bank showed Friday.

The trade deficit increased to $868.9 million in October from $310.4 million in the same month last year.

Export of goods decreased 4.9 percent year-on-year to $882.2 million in October, mainly reflecting contraction in shipments of tea, rubber and minor agricultural crops. Industrial exports rose 12.8 percent, while agricultural exports declined 10.3 percent.

The value of imports climbed 41.4 percent from last year to $1.75 billion during the month, owing mainly to high growth in investment goods and intermediate goods, whose shipments rose by 58.7 percent and 42.7 percent respectively.

In the January-October period, the trade deficit more than doubled to $7.73 billion from $3.86 billion in the same period last year. Exports advanced 23.4 percent year-on-year in the eleven-month period, while imports climbed 50.7 percent.

http://thilankadinush.blogspot.com/

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

The CA deficit could be narrowed in the coming months owing to devaluing the rupee, rising interest rates, (and expecting foreign borrowing by some financial institutions) . If the gap doesn't narrowed down we could see another round of currency devaluation in around March 2012. According to me another devaluation is inevitable given the fact that Indian rupee has lost 30% over past three months. Unless exchange rates were adjusted slowly we will be heading to exchange rate problem again as experienced in 2009.

I believe LKR needs to be devalued at least 10-15% within next 12months. Leading up to this won't be so attractive at CSE.

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