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DIST - Analysis

+7
lamaya
SRIAS
TortoizePlus
monash
soileconomy
Kumar
opfdo
11 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1DIST - Analysis Empty DIST - Analysis Sun Jan 01, 2012 6:58 pm

opfdo

opfdo
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

For your information.

-------------------------------------30/09/2011------------------31/03/2011
EPS----------------------------------9.50------------------------27.08
NAVPS-------------------------------112.45----------------------105.45
PAT--------------------------------- 3,430,578,000---------------8,337,510,000
Other income-------------------------798,635,000-----------------4,545,497,000
Profit Attributable to the EHs----------2,850,265,000---------------8,124,035,000
Cash & Cash Equivalent---------------(1,592,816,000)--------------5,773,215,000
No of Shares-------------------------300,000,000-----------------300,000,000
Return on share holders fund-----------25.68-------------------------8.45
Current Ratio---------------------------1.47-------------------------1.11


  • Their GT has been increased by 40 % when comparing with the last same qtr & PAT by 70 %
  • Main reason is for the decrease of current ratio at the end of six month is increase of interest bearing loans & borrowings. It has been increased by72%
  • When we go through their last year PAT, we can identify that 46% came from disposal of shares.
  • The gain on disposal on LHCL & National Assets Management shares was 3,871,371,000
  • If we remove that amount from PAT, EPS is coming down to 14.17
  • The PE ratio as at 31/03/2011 by considering the above EPS (14.17) is 12.70
  • But there is no major contribution on other income as at 30/09/2011.
  • They have spent sum of LKR 6,085,507,000 for acquisition of shares & other investment at the end of six months. it seems it is the main reason for their decrease of cash & cash equivalent. may be it caused to increased the borrowing by 72 % as I mentioned above.
  • PER as at 30/09/2011 by considering the AEPS as 19 (9.50*2) is around 7.74. And % of public holding is 30.46 % at the end of six months
  • Here is the budget proposal for liquor
DIST - Analysis 4RcBGEGAGBHPYswAwAAzxXCDAAAlAhhBgAASoQwAwAAJUKYAQCAEiHMAABAiRBmAACgRAgzAABQIoQZAAAo0f8BzysX2kW131IAAAAASUVORK5CYII=
Think & decide study

2DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:09 pm

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Good work mate.
Thanks for sharing.
Keep it up.

3DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:06 pm

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics


Thanx.Osmand.

Where will be Dist at the end of March-2012 ?

Recent developments related to subsidiaries and increased stake by related parties give some indications ?

4DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:14 pm

opfdo

opfdo
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

soileconomy wrote:
Thanx.Osmand.

Where will be Dist at the end of March-2012 ?

Recent developments related to subsidiaries and increased stake by related parties give some indications ?

Dear soil, I can not exactly say, but EPS may be reach somewhere between 16-21. because last year they had huge gain on disposal of shares.

Aquisition of shares & investments may give a good impact on PAT in 2013 - 2015. But it can be changed & depends on market sentiment

5DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:40 pm

monash

monash
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Govt. takeover of Pelawatta sugar will have a negative impact since it was major supplier of Ethanol. so cost of production will likely to go up.

On the other hand, buying controlling stake of JKH and tourism boom will have a positive impact on 2012.

6DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:59 pm

TortoizePlus

TortoizePlus
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

monash wrote:Govt. takeover of Pelawatta sugar will have a negative impact since it was major supplier of Ethanol. so cost of production will likely to go up.

On the other hand, buying controlling stake of JKH and tourism boom will have a positive impact on 2012.

Agree with you monash. We have to look for a profitable and sustainable supply chain process when evaluating a company in long run. When row material goes up, you have to reduce the margin to keep the market share if you are not willing to raise the price that quate to the consumer. I raised same question in another thread about LGL but in this case DIST has the monopoly.

SRIAS


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

DIST - Analysis Dist10

8DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:13 pm

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thanks again guys for the valuable infos.

9DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:50 pm

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

But all these days they were producing their products through coconut toddy.
Even though they were trying to bring down the cost by shifting to sugar byproducts ,their cost will be passed to consumers since they control over 80% hard liquor market.
But if we look at their investments , they have a very sound share portfolio.
Don't forget they are the people who brought Sri lanka Insurance up to this level by investing immensely in stocks even though some people are trying the credit.

10DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:02 pm

lamaya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

here is a report done by asia securities on DIST.It is very comprehensive....I think the DIST earnings will sky rocket once the SPEN earnings gets consolidated....

http://www.asiasecurities.net/files/research_papers/1316506609DIST.pdf

11DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:21 am

kaka


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

DIST & CTC, good for life & to invest

12DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Tue Jan 03, 2012 1:49 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

lamaya wrote:here is a report done by asia securities on DIST.It is very comprehensive....I think the DIST earnings will sky rocket once the SPEN earnings gets consolidated....

http://www.asiasecurities.net/files/research_papers/1316506609DIST.pdf
.

Thanx a lot for the link

13DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:41 am

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin

Thanks a lot osmand and other contributors in this thread by sharing valuable infos.
Good work.
Keep it up, more work expected from you.
Have a good trade.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

14DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:30 am

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

However, it annoys me how low a dividend paying company they are when they can afford much more given how well they do.

Going by calendar years. Its growing but really too slow for my liking.
Div/share EPS
2009 - LKR 2.25 11.3
2010 - LKR 2.50 7.1
2011 - LKR 3.00 27.3
Note: EPS is fiscal year, Dividend is reported in calendar year. I'm too lazy to adjust

No consistency in dividend policy so its hard to predict. So for a value investor looking for a long term hold, this isn't the safest as undervalued as it may be. This could be a reason that this share will consistently trail its fair value.

"Fundamentally strong" counter nevertheless.

15DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Tue Mar 20, 2012 5:29 pm

raa


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

I'm angry, I was expecting DIST to declare a dividend this month and it hasn't yet materialised...

Does anyone know, or has any guidance on when it can be expected or if they can declare.

As far as i know, they've got a negative cash flow contribution for the quarter ending December. Their balance sheet cash numbers shows great volatility which means they have no management guidance to maintain bank balances and liquid investments; Basically Harry J is using the cash as and when he feels like it..

With the current situation I'm looking to dividends to give me some spare cash and I'm a bit frustrated that a company like DIST doesn't have a consistent dividend policy. There is not guideline on the payout or when they announce as they have announced it at different dates since 2008, however their payout for the last two years to shareholders has been LKR 750mn (calendar year). Their dividend income is almost LKR 500mn and they have been heavily involved in buying up JKH shares but can't stick to giving a steady return to their shareholders... I'm not very happy about the situation. Maybe my analysis is wrong, I'm hoping someone else could help shed some light..

16DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Tue Mar 20, 2012 5:40 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

No Cash Balance,may be they'll go for script dividend? Who knows?

17DIST - Analysis Empty Re: DIST - Analysis Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:26 am

soileconomy

soileconomy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

I strongly believe , that share price of DIST cannot justify its dividend policy.
DIST is giving the lowest dividend yield in diversified sector ,most probably in whole CSE.
Sometimes they may not declare a dividend this year by saying ,capital expenditure has gone up.
This poor dividend policy keeps lot of investors away form this share ,although it sounds fundamentally bright.

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