By S. Venkat Narayan Our Special Correspondent
NEW DELHI, January 19: South Asia’s economic growth slumped last year because it was dragged down by India’s slow pace, according to data released by the United Nations early this week.
The UN’s World Economic Situations and Prospects 2012 report estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Asia slowed down to 6.5% last year from 7.2% in 2010, because India’s economic growth decelerated sharply to 7.6% from 9% expansion.
Growth in the region is estimated at 6.5% in 2011, with India’s growth rate having decelerated to 7.6%
A combination of domestic and external factors has reined in the world’s second-fastest growing economy, which constitutes almost 80% of South Asia’s GDP and 75% of the region’s population.
Though India’s economy is mainly driven by domestic demand, its dependence on volatile capital inflows makes it more vulnerable to any double-dip recession in Europe and the USthan other South Asian economies, the report pointed out. This, along with the lack of fiscal and monetary space, increases the downside risks for Indian economic growth.
"The smaller economies in South Asia are relatively insulated from the rest of the world, in terms of both trade channels and capital inflows. In contrast, India’s economy is more integrated with the rest of the world," said Nagesh Kumar, chief economist at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Escap).
India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.9% in the July-September quarter from 7.7% in the preceding three-month period and 8.8% in the year earlier, on account of a sharp moderation in industrial growth due to rising interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, raised key policy rates 13 times between March 2010 and Nov 2011 to tame inflation that was inching towards double digits, leading to a moderation in domestic demand.
The government said last Monday that inflation slowed to 7.47% in December, the lowest level in two years.
"A deterioration in the world economy could impact exports and increase the volatility of short-term capital inflows. Going forward, these two factors along with inflation will be the main downside risks for the Indian economy," Kumar said.
The UN projects that world GDP growth will fall to 2.6% in 2012 from 2.8% in 2011. But if the euro zone crisis worsens, GDP growth of all economies put together could plummet to 0.5%.
The slowdown in demand from Europe and the US has hit India’s exports. India’s exports grew 3.8% in November and 6.7% in December, compared with 26.5% and 36.4% in the respective year-ago periods. Investments by foreign institutional investors (FII) have also dried up. Net FII inflows into the Indian equity and debt markets totalled $8.9 billion in 2011 compared with $39.4 billion in 2010.
"In South Asia, India is the major driver of growth. Pakistan and Nepal are not doing very well. Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are growing at a good pace, they constitute only a small share of South Asia’s GDP," said Charan Wadhva, economist at the Centre for Policy Research think tank. "In India, growth rates have been slowing down. With every revision, GDP projections are being lowered."
The report projects that South Asian economies will grow at 6.7% in 2012 and 6.9% in 2013 while India’s GDP expands at 7.7% in 2012 and 7.9% in 2013. But if the crisis in Europe gets worse, average growth in South Asia could fall below 6%, with India’s GDP expanding at 6.5-7%.
To counter slowing growth, the report advocates a globally coordinated fiscal stimulus. "Though it is important to address the debt problem, in the short term, a coordinated fiscal stimulus is important to aid growth," Kumar said.
India will need to create fiscal space for investments in infrastructure to prop up growth, Wadhva said. "But this can be only done through making some politically tough decisions such as cutting oil and fertilizer subsidies," he said.
With the RBI hinting at a reversal in its tight money stance, India’s growth could recover in the next fiscal. "On the positive side, the recent IIP (Index of Industrial Production) numbers are encouraging. With the central bank also signalling a pause in policy rate hikes, growth momentum could pick up towards the second half of the next fiscal," Wadhva said.
India’s IIP grew 5.9% in November, reversing the downward trend of the last few months. In October, it had contracted by 4.7%. OVER.
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