Is 5450 the bottom?

I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

well mate, No problem whether it's right or wrong, Idea is the most important thing. Thank you very much for the comment

There is also a supportive level.

rijayasooriya wrote:There is also a supportive level.

also possibly the end of c wave in elliot. i posted the very moment it touched the target

gann wrote:

rijayasooriya wrote:There is also a supportive level.

also possibly the end of c wave in elliot. i posted the very moment it touched the target

Yes u are spot on and u are one of our best technical analysers.

ASI will never go below 4500 level. this could be the last and bottom line even down trend continue..

gann wrote:

rijayasooriya wrote:There is also a supportive level.

also possibly the end of c wave in elliot. i posted the very moment it touched the target

but it is so weak need a strong support

I don't know if people can remember. About 2 months ago market went down like this. And even got halted from an error transaction Remember DIST transaction And people thought that was the bottom of many other bottoms.

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

What do you mean? I thought you said 6350 was the bottom

gann wrote:ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6563-easieast-way-to-find-the-top-and-the-bottom#44467

csehistorian wrote:

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

What do you mean? I thought you said 6350 was the bottom

gann wrote:ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6563-easieast-way-to-find-the-top-and-the-bottom#44467

see the date of that comment. 12th of july. didnt the market hit 6400 on 21st july and we saw the only upward rally to date.?
remember we are working with probability. not certainty. looking at the index is useless for trading individual stocks if u ask me.
best latest example: sfs. some traders made a killing while the entire market was bloody red.

Hi Gann & others,

According to your findings 5350 will be the bottom. But I got information from some brokers that market will come to 5000 level. I think HNWIspurposely with the help of brokers to put the market in this level and they collect shares from those panic sellers and from force selling. One of the guys who is in this market very long period has informed not to buy in this moment and wait till the market come 5000 level. Do you guys have any news about this or your ideas?

gann wrote:

csehistorian wrote:

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

What do you mean? I thought you said 6350 was the bottom

gann wrote:ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6563-easieast-way-to-find-the-top-and-the-bottom#44467

see the date of that comment. 12th of july. didnt the market hit 6400 on 21st july and we saw the only upward rally to date.?
remember we are working with probability. not certainty. looking at the index is useless for trading individual stocks if u ask me.
best latest example: sfs. some traders made a killing while the entire market was bloody red.

Completely agree with u gann.I also have the feeling that some pay unnecessary attention for the indices.Yes it is important to pay some attention as overall market sentiment affects the share prices but as u have mentioned share dealing is another art.We do not buy and sell ASI.N0000 or MPI.N0000

ss7097 wrote:Hi Gann & others,

According to your findings 5350 will be the bottom. But I got information from some brokers that market will come to 5000 level. I think HNWIspurposely with the help of brokers to put the market in this level and they collect shares from those panic sellers and from force selling. One of the guys who is in this market very long period has informed not to buy in this moment and wait till the market come 5000 level. Do you guys have any news about this or your ideas?

No one can pick the exact bottom. Its beyond us. But we can make a calculated guess. it may work or it may not. picking the index bottom is not that important. You buy when the price of the stock you wish to buy is in up trend. till then sit back and relax

rijayasooriya wrote:

gann wrote:

csehistorian wrote:

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

What do you mean? I thought you said 6350 was the bottom

gann wrote:ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6563-easieast-way-to-find-the-top-and-the-bottom#44467

see the date of that comment. 12th of july. didnt the market hit 6400 on 21st july and we saw the only upward rally to date.?
remember we are working with probability. not certainty. looking at the index is useless for trading individual stocks if u ask me.
best latest example: sfs. some traders made a killing while the entire market was bloody red.

Completely agree with u gann.I also have the feeling that some pay unnecessary attention for the indices.Yes it is important to pay some attention as overall market sentiment affects the share prices but as u have mentioned share dealing is another art.We do not buy and sell ASI.N0000 or MPI.N0000

backpaddling now aren't you? At that time you said it's the bottom of the *BEAR* which means that the end of the downturn. Now you are pretending that you meant a temporary upturn.

csehistorian wrote:

rijayasooriya wrote:

gann wrote:

csehistorian wrote:

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

What do you mean? I thought you said 6350 was the bottom

gann wrote:ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6563-easieast-way-to-find-the-top-and-the-bottom#44467

see the date of that comment. 12th of july. didnt the market hit 6400 on 21st july and we saw the only upward rally to date.?
remember we are working with probability. not certainty. looking at the index is useless for trading individual stocks if u ask me.
best latest example: sfs. some traders made a killing while the entire market was bloody red.

Completely agree with u gann.I also have the feeling that some pay unnecessary attention for the indices.Yes it is important to pay some attention as overall market sentiment affects the share prices but as u have mentioned share dealing is another art.We do not buy and sell ASI.N0000 or MPI.N0000

backpaddling now aren't you? At that time you said it's the bottom of the *BEAR* which means that the end of the downturn. Now you are pretending that you meant a temporary upturn.

Are u mad ? Do u think I put my full faith in to TA in this manipulated market ?

ASI should come down to 4800 level this year if Central Bank don’t allow rupee float freely.
CB/Treasury increase money supply locally but try to keep the external value steady. You cannot have both.

rijayasooriya wrote:
Are u mad ? Do u think I put my full faith in to TA in this manipulated market ?

Oh sorry. That comment was aimed at gann! know I don't think you are mad, but you seem to be implying that Gann is!

Anyway let me try again:

gann wrote:

csehistorian wrote:

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

What do you mean? I thought you said 6350 was the bottom

gann wrote:ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

on Tue Jul 12, 2011 1:14 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t6563-easieast-way-to-find-the-top-and-the-bottom#44467

see the date of that comment. 12th of july. didnt the market hit 6400 on 21st july and we saw the only upward rally to date.?
remember we are working with probability. not certainty. looking at the index is useless for trading individual stocks if u ask me.
best latest example: sfs. some traders made a killing while the entire market was bloody red.

[/quote]

Gann, backpaddling now aren't you? At that time (July) you said it's the bottom of the *BEAR* which means that the end of the downturn. Now you are pretending that you meant a temporary upturn.

Even now you are claiming it's the bottom of the bear, and your friend is diluting what you say by commenting that one does not buy the indices. Why then is everyone so concerned when the indices decline? Why then no one comments when 120 shares decline but the indices are green because 40 shares including SLTL, BUKI, DIAL went up? There have been many many days like that.

And if SFS is running in this blood red market, that means we are definitely not at the bottom of the bear market. Because at the bottom such shares will be pounded into the dust.

csehistorian wrote:

rijayasooriya wrote:
Are u mad ? Do u think I put my full faith in to TA in this manipulated market ?

Oh sorry. That comment was aimed at gann! know I don't think you are mad, but you seem to be implying that Gann is!

Let me correct u.I do not think or imply Gann is mad.I do think he is a good technical analyser.
Finally anyone with even a little bit of brain should know/understand that TA is always a probability and I do not think that we need to tell it eachtime when we analyse with technical chart.

I am not trying to prove anything here. i just posted my observation. I dont care if asi goes up or down. i will trade when ever there is an opportunity to get in and out within hours or couple of days max.

In a small market like CSE which and index called ASI could be manipulated using large caps, where few gamblers with money do gambling games, where market watch god doesn't carry out theirduty, where brokers promote day trading for their survival and bring down the market, TA could be considered a sharp blade..

TA is also a guessing field... there's always a probabilty involved in changing sentiements for news, while tech charts can detect the sentimetns, there are times those can be artificially manipulate too..

Bottoms are really hard to find.. U hit double bottoms then tripple bottoms and then can guess the market is on bottom.. u can take EW's C wave end as a turning point.. U can take Fibonachchi retracement's 50% line and claim its a bottom, etc.. etc...
But the truth is; even experts can fail..

Rather than blaming them we have to keep an eye on important support levels to take the prudent decisions for investments..

I look at things differently. I look at 5-10 years ahead and plan investments accordingly. It makes things look more practical.

Cheers!

Rapaport wrote:I look at things differently. I look at 5-10 years ahead and plan investments accordingly. It makes things look more practical.

Cheers!

Furthermore; it means ease of pains.. more time for other work, well life balance is there..

Well plan ur investment and invest on your plan

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

Just repeating something I said on another post

Check your longer term charts:
You will find that, after the ASI bottomed out at 1,608 in March-09, it went all the way to 7,864 in Feb-11 without a proper retracement - until now!
Yesterday, we saw a bounce back from around 5,451; it is interesting to note that 5,474 represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

(However, if you think that a 50% retracement of that long upmove is likely, then we are talking about the ASI dropping to 4,736.)

As I have said. this is a probability. I am not going to take it to the bank.

Antonym wrote:

gann wrote:I have a strong feeling, this could be the bottom of the bear run. I could be very wrong.

Just repeating something I said on another post

Check your longer term charts:
You will find that, after the ASI bottomed out at 1,608 in March-09, it went all the way to 7,864 in Feb-11 without a proper retracement - until now!
Yesterday, we saw a bounce back from around 5,451; it is interesting to note that 5,474 represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

(However, if you think that a 50% retracement of that long upmove is likely, then we are talking about the ASI dropping to 4,736.)

If you take the previous top 3030 on 2007 feb. 5450 sits exactly on 50% retracement from 7850 on 14th feb 2011.