DIESEL & MOTOR ENGINEERING PLC (DIMO.N0000)

As of you agreed yes there's nothing wrong with its fundamentals. I know exactly how the people who bought this share above 1300 feel at the moment.
Few years ago I bought this share at 120 and soon after my purchased, DIMO share went down so drastically and I thought I did a huge mistake. It was stagnated below 100 for long time before appreciated to 400 level.
Again stagnated around 400 and then 800 level. Then every one knows the story...

I recently sold my shares.

DIMO is a good share to keep. Overall I think recent market conditions does not give any positive impact on fundamentally sound shares. That may be the main reason why DIMO is not moving towards the positive side.

Apart from that following reasons may have an impact on DIMO

1. People are waiting to hear the government budget decisions ( Car tax)
2. One director has been selling his shares for a while.
3. Eventhough this is an undervalued share we cannot forget that DIMO price appreciated more than 1000% in less than 2 years. Same as RICH, DIMO, SPEN also needs some stability in their new price levels.
4. DIMO, RICH cannt be manipulated easily.

Yes this is relatively illiquid pricey share but its NOT the reason for DIMO's frustrating behaviour.

You would be better off with buying COLO even at current prices as there is room for it to move forward, at least to 550.

DIMO's PE is the lowest in Motor sector at present price levels.It also recorded so far Highest Sale value, Highest Net profit and Highest NAV in the Motor sector.

malsina wrote:Hi Guys.
I purchased 500 DIMO shares few months ago as there were many people recommended this undervalued fundamental share. But I'm losing money day by day.
Can some one please let me know what is going wrong? Did I do a wrong decision or something else? My unrealised loss is over Rs 80,000.00
I dont know what to do. Please help. I'm thinking of selling this at a loss and buy a non value share..

I had enough.

My PF is full of undervalued shares but losing money. I bought all for reasonable prices.

look at the technical analysis be patient good time will come near future

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t11401-analysis-of-motor-sector-shares-invitation-for-a-fruitful-discussion

If you've read the S/Times, it states that DIMO has got a strangle hold on all the Benz Car Buyers. Those who have imported them privately, have to pay Rs. 500,000/= to DIMO as a once-and-for-all-payment if they want their cars to be serviced by them. Nice one. What are your views on this?

What if AMW, Toyota and the rest follow suit?
Would they get more business?
Can the Agents be sued for non performance?


Can we have your views on this?

just think if you buy AUTO or SMOT
You had a chance to buy around 1500 shares of AUTO at 800,as i rmmbr the seller came to 800 at that time........

SMOT-it was a great buy below 250.......

you had the chance.......

why you went after DIMO if you are not willing to loose

bro now the situation is different,you cant earn money by fundamentals these days

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/694_1329138465935.pdf

3Q FY12 profit of SLRs713 million (3Q EPS of SLRs80) is down both QoQ and YoY, from high comparisons though.

But outlook for entire motor sector is weakening due to higher interest rates and weaker currency, and threat of increased import duties is also a very real concern.

Sector valuations are relatively cheap, but this possibly is a reflection of the sector's somewhat cloudy future and may be warranted.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/694_1329138465935.pdf
9monts E.P.S. Rs..................255.73
Net asset value per share ...800.38

Feb 14, 2012 (LBO) - December 2011 quarter net profit at Sri Lankan auto importer and distributor Diesel and Motor Engineering Company (Dimo) fell 27 percent to 713 million rupees from a year ago as sales slowed.

A stock exchange filing said Dimo's sales fell 12 percent to 10.6 billion rupees in the quarter while gross profit fell 22 percent to 1.8 billion rupees.

Earnings per share for the December 2011 quarter were 80.28 rupees. Dimo's net profit in the same quarter last year had been a record high of 974 million rupees on a boom in vehicle sales after import taxes were cut.

Dimo's earnings per share for the nine months to December 2011 were 255.73 rupees, up from 164.19 rupees the year before.

Net profit in the nine-month period went up 56 percent to 2.3 billion rupees on a 38 percent growth in sales to 28.6 billion rupees.

Dimo shares were trading at 1,102 rupees Tuesday morning.

Profit from vehicle sales were down in the December 2011 quarter compared with the previous year while that from vehicle parts and service rose sharply

Dimo's lighting and power tools business went into the red during the quarter while profits were higher in its construction, agricultural and material handling machinery business and the electro mechanical and medical bio engineering business

The accounts showed the Employees' Provident Fund, a pension fund, was Dimo's single largest shareholder with a 12.6 percent stake.
http://lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=2072243241

cse.alpha wrote:3Q FY12 profit of SLRs713 million (3Q EPS of SLRs80) is down both QoQ and YoY, from high comparisons though.

But outlook for entire motor sector is weakening due to higher interest rates and weaker currency, and threat of increased import duties is also a very real concern.

Sector valuations are relatively cheap, but this possibly is a reflection of the sector's somewhat cloudy future and may be warranted.

Your prediction may come true. Let's wait and see next two quarters. See what Tilak de Zoysa, deputy chairman of Associated Motorways says,

Code:

Mar 08, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's automobile sales are expected to dip in 2012 with pent up demand being met and rapidly rising interest rates, Tilak de Zoysa, deputy chairman of Associated Motorways, the island's largest auto dealer said.

Sri Lanka's rupee also dipped from 110 to around 120 rupees in the second week of February pushing up the price of imported cars.


http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=874547848

Monster wrote:

cse.alpha wrote:weakening due to higher interest rates and weaker currency, and threat of increased import duties is also a very real concern.

Sector valuations are relatively cheap, but this possibly is a reflection of the sector's somewhat cloudy future and may be warranted.

Your prediction may come true. Let's wait and see next two quarters. See what Tilak de Zoysa, deputy chairman of Associated Motorways says,

Code:

Mar 08, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's automobile sales are expected to dip in 2012 with pent up demand being met and rapidly rising interest rates, Tilak de Zoysa, deputy chairman of Associated Motorways, the island's largest auto dealer said.

Sri Lanka's rupee also dipped from 110 to around 120 rupees in the second week of February pushing up the price of imported cars.


http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=874547848

The above facts mentioned might get to be true. But when we compare DIMO with other motor companies special things needs to be noted.

a) The volume drops can be more specially in direct retail driven passenger vehicles. ( DIMO exposure to passenger vehicle is much less
in revenue and market share ( Ex: Nano is 2% or so in revenue).
b) For DIMO their greatest revenue is in TATA commercial vehicle I read. They control a very large market in Sri Lanka with TATA
brand. They wish to expand. At this time there are Tax incentives to Buses, lorries, trucks . Now there trying to get into the Benz Van
and Buses, truck which are higher priced but higher performance. With more and more better roads and express ways coming in,
and expansions to North , this segment might have some long term future if they can convince and promote well
c) DIMO Batta has a name itself in SL. More potential for revenue if they aremarketed well.
d) Their MERC Car sales are for rich people. For them money might be no object. But sale might have impact if taxes get increased.
e) Though minimal, DIMO has diversification to other sectors. Construction equipment, vehicle parts, Lighting/power tools, Bio Med equipment. Out of the above Construction and Agri equipment ( Like Komatsu and Mahindra ) can be benefited if they choose to expand on those

ALso company is controlled by 4 families. Bad side if there is an internal issue, it can impact DIMO ( like what happened to HUNT) . Good side is these 4 families might be worried about take over. So share price falling too low is dangerous to them.

In essence , unless there is some huge crisis in policy changes , I see DIMO earning Rs 50 per quarter for the next few. So Rs 1000 is still bargain for company with NAV 800 and PE of 5 ( assuming 2012 financail year earnign is Rs 200 , even counting a big drop in revenue and profits)

As CSe.Alpha mentioned the segment and the discounted prices now reflect somewhat the future outlook and mentality. But I think DIMO was the worst hit amongst the motor companies even with relatively higher performance . We saw, UML,SMOT, COLO , ASHo all having run. DIMO after hitting Rs 1800 last year neven had a proper run and now tardes at Rs 1000.
This might be due mainly due to higher priced share and lesser retail intrest ( need Rs100,000 to buy 100 share stil)

I see someone selling/collecting at RS 1000-1040 these days.

DIMO is still certainly an enigma in any account.

( SOme of the above ideas come from various material I researched and read)

Ps : This is not a buy sell recommendation. Prices can com down if market goes negative or there can be upside if any news or buying comes.

Count this on. Da growth'll be fast diminishing for motor vehicle sector. can expect a negative growth too.

last 3 months results R evidence of da new trend ;(

lemuria wrote:last 3 months results R evidence of da new trend ;(

Was the last 3 month results really that bad? How much do you think DIMO earnings will drop and according to your estimates what kind of PE and price should we expect for this in the future?

lemuria wrote:Count this on. Da growth'll be fast diminishing for motor vehicle sector. can expect a negative growth too.

Do you think they might make losses with the new trend?

slstock wrote:

lemuria wrote:last 3 months results R evidence of da new trend ;(

Was the last 3 month results really that bad? How much do you think DIMO earnings will drop and according to your estimates what kind of PE and price should we expect for this in the future?

lemuria wrote:Count this on. Da growth'll be fast diminishing for motor vehicle sector. can expect a negative growth too.

Do you think they might make losses with the new trend?

Mate, I meant negative growth NOT loss. Last quarter has a NEGATIVE GROWTH. Did u see it.

lemuria wrote:

slstock wrote:

lemuria wrote:last 3 months results R evidence of da new trend ;(

Was the last 3 month results really that bad? How much do you think DIMO earnings will drop and according to your estimates what kind of PE and price should we expect for this in the future?

lemuria wrote:Count this on. Da growth'll be fast diminishing for motor vehicle sector. can expect a negative growth too.

Do you think they might make losses with the new trend?

Mate, I meant negative growth NOT loss. Last quarter has a NEGATIVE GROWTH. Did u see it.

We are already experiencing negative growth due to external factors and policies. EPS dropped from a whopping over RS 100+ from last year to Rs 80.So the negativity is a given and they cannot report earnign of Rs 100 for every quarter.

But you said growth will be fast diminishing. From what you said as you seem to be knowlegable . What can of impact DIMo will have with the fast diminishing earnings( negative growth). What kind of share valuation do you think DIMO. Now trading at Rs 1000 should have? What kind of earnign drop do you think we can expect?

Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

lemuria wrote:Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

Just becuz earnings drop share price dont drop all the time.. Have u not seen last time CARS group fell in their financials and before the financials out there was a good run.. Even after the results out there was not much of a drop due to that..

However motor sector cannot show the same performance as last year due to the latest fuel saga.. With so much hype of a rise in fuel in near future who can maintain a vehicle? A person with an income of 50-60K cannot maintain a vehicle other than a maruti now ;(

smallville wrote:

lemuria wrote:Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

Just becuz earnings drop share price dont drop all the time.. Have u not seen last time CARS group fell in their financials and before the financials out there was a good run.. Even after the results out there was not much of a drop due to that..

However motor sector cannot show the same performance as last year due to the latest fuel saga.. With so much hype of a rise in fuel in near future who can maintain a vehicle? A person with an income of 50-60K cannot maintain a vehicle other than a maruti now ;(

Mate,

I talked abt general theory, there can be exceptions like "exceptional demand theory". Anyway mate wat is da relationship between Carsons & DIMO. I see a strong correlation betn DIMO share price & DIMO's earnings.

Mate take last year AR of DIMO. Go to 10 year summary. Look at da EPS & share price.

In 2010 directors sold 87,000 shares & in 2011 June july another 50,000. why?

Exchange rate crisis will affect this share badly.

DIMO imports & sells MV, super profits cannot be maintained for too long.

lemuria wrote:
Mate,

I talked abt general theory, there can be exceptions like "exceptional demand theory". Anyway mate wat is da relationship between Carsons & DIMO. I see a strong correlation betn DIMO share price & DIMO's earnings.

Mate take last year AR of DIMO. Go to 10 year summary. Look at da EPS & share price.

In 2010 directors sold 87,000 shares & in 2011 June july another 50,000. why?

Exchange rate crisis will affect this share badly.

DIMO imports & sells MV, super profits cannot be maintained for too long.

CARS was taken as an example to mention the share price scenario, BLUE, RGEM were another drama episodes of this.. DIMO reached a high price in a shorter time span in 2010 from 500s to over 1000s so directors might've thought of booking profits we never know as there's no point in following directors.

Ur correct mate... due to rupee devaluation they'll have to increase their vehicle prices then the demand will come down. That's why I said, an average person with a good salary even cant maintain his own vehicle other than a Maruti now..

There's no question about their revenue being hit.. On the other hand haven't they got a wide range of vehicles from SUVs to Nanos?? But anyways they cant up profits in a big way selling nanos..

lemuria wrote:

smallville wrote:

lemuria wrote:Earnings drop so the share price drop; a general theory. I expect 20% to 50% earnings drop unless new investments in other sectors.

Just becuz earnings drop share price dont drop all the time.. Have u not seen last time CARS group fell in their financials and before the financials out there was a good run.. Even after the results out there was not much of a drop due to that..

However motor sector cannot show the same performance as last year due to the latest fuel saga.. With so much hype of a rise in fuel in near future who can maintain a vehicle? A person with an income of 50-60K cannot maintain a vehicle other than a maruti now ;(

Mate,

I talked abt general theory, there can be exceptions like "exceptional demand theory". Anyway mate wat is da relationship between Carsons & DIMO. I see a strong correlation betn DIMO share price & DIMO's earnings.



Mate take last year AR of DIMO. Go to 10 year summary. Look at da EPS & share price.

In 2010 directors sold 87,000 shares & in 2011 June july another 50,000. why?

Exchange rate crisis will affect this share badly.
DIMO imports & sells MV, super profits cannot be maintained for too long.

Director's selling does not always indicate a future price drop. Also it is not a pure signal to sell. Many directors in several companies have sold their shares and only after sold they realise the situation. Just look at CLPL. What happened? Chairman/MD sold his majorty share holding around 60/- if I am correct. After couple of months price went up to around 150/- At that time CLPL was not a consistent profit making company too. In DIMO only 2 directors have sold a little % of their share holdings. This is mainly a family concern before listing. May be some family members(also the directors of the company )wanted some cash for some purpose. We dont know No?

Code:

Sri Lanka's banks urged to limit credit for cars
Mar 14, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's central bank has asked banks to limit credit to buy motor cars, in a bid to reduce imports, as the country faced balance of payments pressure and lost more than a quarter of its foreign reserves.

http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=833897977

What would be the next threat to this sector? Is it the increase of imports duty?

Monster wrote:

Code:

Sri Lanka's banks urged to limit credit for cars
Mar 14, 2012 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's central bank has asked banks to limit credit to buy motor cars, in a bid to reduce imports, as the country faced balance of payments pressure and lost more than a quarter of its foreign reserves.

http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=833897977

What would be the next threat to this sector? Is it the increase of imports duty?

But the below also should b e noted in the same article. But anyway the overall motor sector obviously will not be able to sustain the current earnings in the future as demand goes down.

'The Central Bank said vehicle dealers had built up large inventories of cars over the past few months and banks may "prudently consider the limitation of credit for the import of motor vehicles, which would, in turn, lead to the easing of pressure on import expenditure."

There were rumors on another Fuel price hike which can negatively impact the entire motor trade.. If fuel price surge to 160+, I think we'll have to order some bikes for traveling..

If the loans and leases are made limited the profitability of all these financial institutions may dip too..

But director selling is not an indication of a downtrend.. Directors are also ppl like us so they may have even got cash requirements.. Selling 100 DIMO gives u over 1 lak... Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.. If u have 30K DIMO means u can buy a good vehicle those days know???

smallville wrote:There were rumors on another Fuel price hike which can negatively impact the entire motor trade.. If fuel price surge to 160+, I think we'll have to order some bikes for traveling..

If the loans and leases are made limited the profitability of all these financial institutions may dip too..

But director selling is not an indication of a downtrend.. Directors are also ppl like us so they may have even got cash requirements.. Selling 100 DIMO gives u over 1 lak... Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.. If u have 30K DIMO means u can buy a good vehicle those days know???

Mate, selling 1000 or 2000 shares ok bt selling 87k & 50k a lot for DIMO when issued qty is just 8mn shares. Agreed direcs are not always correct.

Mate, "Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.." wrong mate selling 10,000 shares mean 10mn 30k shares mean 30mn can go for a BMW lol!

when exchange crisis cum, govt'll first touch this sector. See already CBSL action on banks to limit credits

telling you again DIMO drops with da expectation of earnings drop.

lemuria wrote:

Mate, "Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.." wrong mate selling 10,000 shares mean 10mn 30k shares mean 30mn can go for a BMW lol!

Correct correct.. A typical typo.. my math is very bad

What if directors wanted to buy BMW or Merc?

smallville wrote:

lemuria wrote:

Mate, "Selling over 10K of DIMO means 1 Mil.." wrong mate selling 10,000 shares mean 10mn 30k shares mean 30mn can go for a BMW lol!

Correct correct.. A typical typo.. my math is very bad

What if directors wanted to buy BMW or Merc?

Directors emoluments 82mn for 2010/11, 7 executive directors. They wont sell shares to buy cars .