- Are We Experiencing A Bear Market Rally ? -

Chanuque · 1 - Are We Experiencing A Bear Market Rally ? - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:59 pm

Chanuque

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? Has the market sold off of 20% from high to low within a short time-frame,
? Has the volume increased of 300% or more on the day of the suspected bottom,
? Has a significant price reversal on the low day with massive hammer candlestick,
? Has the market begins to stall after a move up of 20% to 35% off the bottom,
? Has the market resumes the primary down trend after a number of flat days.

sriranga · 2 Re: - Are We Experiencing A Bear Market Rally ? - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:07 pm

sriranga

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Thanks for posting.

Please see this post by Mark.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16056-green-shade-will-continue-another-three-days#105259

Chanuque · 3 Re: - Are We Experiencing A Bear Market Rally ? - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:15 pm

Chanuque

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THX SriRanga .. I am searching for solid confirmations on that phenomenon from the SLEF experts .. !

anubis · 4 Re: - Are We Experiencing A Bear Market Rally ? - Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:57 am

anubis

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From the discussions we had so far, there are certain shares that might need more correction (hence, the justification of this being a bear rally).

- Junk shares like GREG, HVA etc.
- Hotels (IMHO they are over priced)
- CARS / BUKI group (I'm not very familiar but a senior member has warned about these)
- More?

My main concern is, what about fundamentally strong shares (some banking, motor, diversified & finance / insurance companies) that are already trading around very attractive prices?

How would they be affected? I've collected a bunch on last 14 / 15 when blood was on the streets. However, a continued bear market (if we're indeed experiencing a Bear rally) would still take those prices down (making them even more attractive).

Fundamentally, buying that sort of shares can be justified at current prices and even below (if the market drops). But what should be the correct strategy? Just keep buying as much as you can? (while following financial reports to make sure that those companies are performing well?).

Let's not be too pessimistic or too optimistic, market can go either ways. But if we know we are holding good stuff, we can just forget about our portfolios and wait until the market re-corrects to obey the fundamental values (which has to happen eventually).

Cheers!