I'm not buying any stocks until the ASPI comes down to 6200 !!!

undervalued

undervalued

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6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

Slstock

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undervalued wrote:6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

Just curios what your view is. If ASPI come to 6200 continously what will happen to share which is trading at more than bargain and are oversold.

JKH less than Decemeber
DFCC somethign like august/sept before announcement...
LOLC, the cheapest it went after the split..

I can quote so many more. You get the idea.
If ASPI dips to 6200 , these fundametals will plummet to unexplanable values.
What do you think?

What I am saying is I do not think there will be continous drop like this ( 1% per day ) to 6200. There should be a recovery at soem point. ( upward due to oversold shars. Some are below oversold) But afterwards it can go down again.

ASPI 6200 might be a bit too much ( unless there is force selling to blood shed) as that was lowest in December. If it goes liek this it could however drop below 7000 at some point.

Last edited by slstock on Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

Meta Trader

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undervalued wrote:6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

6200

technically it should Twisted Evil

but do you remember 13th of October 2010 ?, as soon as circuit breakers triggered EPF came and rescue it Wink

HNWI are still waiting till market falls below 7000

i don't think it will even fall below 6500
below 7000 is a possibility Idea

Gaja

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Good thinking

Niggard

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Meta Trader wrote:

undervalued wrote:6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

6200
technically it should
but do you remember 13th of October 2010 ?, as soon as circuit breakers triggered EPF came and rescue it
HNWI are still waiting till market falls below 7000

i don't think it will even fall below 6500
below 7000 is a possibility

But Thanks for information.

tubal

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Meta Trader wrote:

undervalued wrote:6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

6200
technically it should
but do you remember 13th of October 2010 ?, as soon as circuit breakers triggered EPF came and rescue it
HNWI are still waiting till market falls below 7000

i don't think it will even fall below 6500
below 7000 is a possibility

Yeah, state funds will step into give stability if things start spinning out of control. However I am also of the opinion that the market is heading towards Beruwala, maybe Galle and who knows even Dondra Head. It will not happen overnight but I think it will.

econ

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the problem of cse is many illquid shares like cars,buki, wapo etc cause index up massively . but when the market down all the fundamental strong shares are going down. correction should be only for shares like wapo,buki, binn etc other illiquid shares.

tubal

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econ wrote:the problem of cse is many illquid shares like cars,buki, wapo etc cause index up massively . but when the market down all the fundamental strong shares are going down. correction should be only for shares like wapo,buki, binn etc other illiquid shares.

I think WAPO wil possibly pass Dondra Head and head towards Little Basses when the rights are exercised and the newly created shares are listed.

As for CARS, BUKI et al, I don't think there will be a big change in their prices until the palm oil share swap is completed.

mark

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i don't expect ASI to go below 7000 level......market may pick up in any moment...............
my strategy is to wait and see...........just a thought of me
i may be wrong............. Smile

$$$

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In October we heard this very same story about ASPI dipping below x etc....reastically below 7000 maybe 6800 should be good anything below that and we go down to over sold..bargain hunters state funds HNWI's will stpe in to stop the rot...this is Credit Clearing (force selling at silly prices as well ) profit taking and a correction..... things will settle in just nicely ....most stocks have plummeted on low volumes as well ....

tubal

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$$$ wrote:In October we heard this very same story about ASPI dipping below x etc....reastically below 7000 maybe 6800 should be good anything below that and we go down to over sold..bargain hunters state funds HNWI's will stpe in to stop the rot...this is Credit Clearing (force selling at silly prices as well ) profit taking and a correction..... things will settle in just nicely ....most stocks have plummeted on low volumes as well ....

I am not trying to disagree with you: I am just saying ASI is no longer useful (we discussed this in another thread and it's mentioned briefly by econ). I believe if we recalculate the ASI by leaving out the CARS/BUKI group, we will find that it is already below 7000, maybe even below 6800.

That might scare many people but that's exactly why we shouldn't panic. At least 60% of the shares are horribly oversold.

$$$

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Yeah I agree ...that the increase in ASPI doesn't necessarily represent the over all sentiment due to the Illiquid counters playing havoc....also agree that the stocks are over sold Sad

....but I think 6800 would be still realistic...support levels will not let it plummet further for varying reasons Smile

tubal wrote:

$$$ wrote:In October we heard this very same story about ASPI dipping below x etc....reastically below 7000 maybe 6800 should be good anything below that and we go down to over sold..bargain hunters state funds HNWI's will stpe in to stop the rot...this is Credit Clearing (force selling at silly prices as well ) profit taking and a correction..... things will settle in just nicely ....most stocks have plummeted on low volumes as well ....

I am not trying to disagree with you: I am just saying ASI is no longer useful (we discussed this in another thread and it's mentioned briefly by econ). I believe if we recalculate the ASI by leaving out the CARS/BUKI group, we will find that it is already below 7000, maybe even below 6800.

That might scare many people but that's exactly why we shouldn't panic. At least 60% of the shares are horribly oversold.

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mark wrote:i don't expect ASI to go below 7000 level......market may pick up in any moment...............
my strategy is to wait and see...........just a thought of me
i may be wrong.............

in your personal opinion, how down would this go. @ which point we must buy

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Niggard wrote:

mark wrote:i don't expect ASI to go below 7000 level......market may pick up in any moment...............
my strategy is to wait and see...........just a thought of me
i may be wrong.............

in your personal opinion, how down would this go. @ which point we must buy

I don't think anybody can give you a point of entry to the market. Thats why people keep buying/selling at different price levels and the market moves on. Also the point of entry will vary for each stock. You may find number of fundamentally strong shares trading at thier lowest prices in the past 6-7 months. So rather than waiting for the whole market to reach some point, we can focus on the shares that are already at very attractive levels.

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StocksWatch wrote:
I don't think anybody can give you a point of entry to the market. Thats why people keep buying/selling at different price levels and the market moves on. Also the point of entry will vary for each stock. You may find number of fundamentally strong shares trading at thier lowest prices in the past 6-7 months. So rather than waiting for the whole market to reach some point, we can focus on the shares that are already at very attractive levels.

Good call. If you are medium term to long term it will not hurt. This might help market sentiments. remembr Spen cross at Rs 230. Now Rs 170!

Last edited by slstock on Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:57 pm; edited 1 time in total

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this should have gone into the jokes sections.

Antonym · 17 Black Swan Theory, Anybody? Thu Mar 10, 2011 6:18 pm

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@undervalued: Going by the feedback, you might as well have said, "I'm not buying any stocks until hell freezes over." All of us seem to have arrived at a cozy consensus that a decline of 16% is next to impossible.

But, let's look at the facts -
The CSE @ 6,200 represents a market PE of 23.5X (trailing).
Even if you take forward PE, that would be about 15X, I think.
Now, that doesn't look so unrealistic, does it?

It pays to be a contrarian: Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

tubal

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Antonym wrote:@undervalued: Going by the feedback, you might as well have said, "I'm not buying any stocks until hell freezes over." All of us seem to have arrived at a cozy consensus that a decline of 16% is next to impossible.

But, let's look at the facts -
The CSE @ 6,200 represents a market PE of 23.5X (trailing).
Even if you take forward PE, that would be about 15X, I think.
Now, that doesn't look so unrealistic, does it?

It pays to be a contrarian: Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

Antonym, I hope you didn't include me in that 'everyone'. I am not saying ASPI will drop to 6200 but like you, I am saying the correction will be deeper than what most people think it will be.

As you might have noticed there have been several discussions about the validity of the ASI including one started by me, where I mentioned that the market has actually been declining since the first week of february though the index is up. http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t1431-the-market-has-been-declining-for-a-month#9302

What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200 Suspect

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tubal wrote:
What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200

Superb idea, tubal!

Maybe if you share the initial methodology and derived index values with the forum, we could be following the TSI (tubal's share index) instead of the ASI in the days to come! Just out of curiosity - What date are you taking as the base?

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Even after we remove CARS group and look at the index, my guess is the ASI would stand at nearly 6800-7000 like tubel said, but I dont expect this goes much down.. it may be too soon to predict the market is gonna up, but today last few mins, it showed some good momentum.. If these CFLB, LCEY shares gonna go up with some banking and financials & some construction.. we may see it up again.. at least I'm optimistic ;-)

tubal

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Antonym wrote:

tubal wrote:
What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200

Superb idea, tubal!

Maybe if you share the initial methodology and derived index values with the forum, we could be following the TSI (tubal's share index) instead of the ASI in the days to come! Just out of curiosity - What date are you taking as the base?

I don't think we need to go too far back in time. Jan 01, 2010 I think might be a good starting point. I am thinking of normalizing it by setting the figure equal to the ASI on that date. The plan is to use the market cap as they do with the ASI. Of course that means splits, bonuses and rights need to be accounted for. So I guess it could be more than one weekend's work.

Meta Trader

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tubal wrote:

Antonym wrote:

tubal wrote:
What I am going to do over the weekend is to create my home made index. It will essentially be the ASI but without the illiquids. We might even find that it's already at 6200

Superb idea, tubal!

Maybe if you share the initial methodology and derived index values with the forum, we could be following the TSI (tubal's share index) instead of the ASI in the days to come! Just out of curiosity - What date are you taking as the base?

I don't think we need to go too far back in time. Jan 01, 2010 I think might be a good starting point. I am thinking of normalizing it by setting the figure equal to the ASI on that date. The plan is to use the market cap as they do with the ASI. Of course that means splits, bonuses and rights need to be accounted for. So I guess it could be more than one weekend's work.

+ Rep from me

what a wonderful idea Twisted Evil

looking forward to TSI Twisted Evil

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undervalued wrote:6200 is my entering point, which is gonna happen very soon!!. There will be more panic sellers tomorrow. Entire market is going through that correction which was needed for quite a long time. Most stocks are already overvalued.

Mr.UNDERVALUVE,
You have to wait next genaration for buy stock.market will never come to what you predict this is your day dream... ASI 7100 LEVEL next resistent level buy good fundamental now on discounted price...you will miss big time see the miracle will have on after 21 st of this month...... Very Happy

gann

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according to my calculations the market to continue with the current bullish trend it needs to pass 7500. if the rally today fails to reach 7500 we are heading towards 7200.

Antonym

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@tubal: Hope you had a productive weekend, my friend.

How's 'Project TSI' going? Are we at 6,200 yet - without the illiquid shares?

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I'm not buying any stocks until the ASPI comes down to 6200 !!!

1 I'm not buying any stocks until the ASPI comes down to 6200 !!! Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:06 pm

undervalued

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Slstock

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