ASI Increase in 2009 and 2010-Is it Unusual or Manipulated?

Dear Friends,

During the last 20 yeas ASI has been increased from 606 in the beginning of Jan.1993 to 7797 on Feb. 28th 2011 ( highest during the day 7823) and again dropped to 5009 on Feb. 14th 2012 (lowest during the day 4962) recording a drop of 35.75% within around one year period. However, ASI again increased rapidly within two weeks (an increase of 8.96%) to reach 5458 at the end of Feb. 2012. This resulted in a reduction of the drop (35.75%) as at end Feb. to around 30.0%.
In March 2012 up to now index has shown as more or less stable fluctuating within a narrow zone of 5400-5500.

What would be the shape of ASI in the near future during the rest of the year and in 2013? Can we guess this using TA or general practical knowledge in stock trading?
I have picked some data from JBS and Yahoo Finance websites. Accordingly, I have summarized some ASI figures as follows;

year. Jan. Dec. Up/Down%

1993 606 987 61.3% -up
1994 987 987 00.0% -stable
1995 987 663 32.8% -down
1996 663 603 09.0% -down
1997 603 702 16.4% -up
1998 702 597 14.9% -down
1999 597 572 04.1% -down
2000 572 447 21.8% -down
2001 447 621 38.9% -up
2002 621 815 31.2% -up
2003 815 1062 30.3% -up
2004 1062 1506 41.8% -up
2005 1506 1922 27.6% -up
2006 1922 2722 41.6% -up
2007 2722 2540 06.6% -down
2008 2540 1503 40.8% -down
2009 1503 3385 125.2% -up
2010 3385 6635 96.0% -up
2011 6635 6074 08.4% -down
2012.03.19 6074 5414 10.8% -down

From the above figures one can note an important fact to explain the reason for huge increase of ASI in 2009 and 2010. The war between the govt. forces and terrorists were more crucial in 2008 and hence investors wanted to exit from the market resulting a severe drop of 40.8% in ASI. However, after the defeat of the terrorists, in 2009 and in the following year 2010 ASI required catching up again as the business environment became normal. This resulted in a higher growth of the index when compared with the index(1503) as at end 2008 (which is an unusual year)Therefore if we calculate the change of ASI during the 3 years from the beginning of 2007 to end 2009 we could arrive at a figure of (3385-2722x100/2722) +24.35% (up). Then this uptrend cannot be considered as abnormal or unusual since the increase of 24.35% is within a period of 3 years. Year 2010 of course an extraordinary year coz of the post war economic development and hence anyone can justify around 80%, 90% growth in the index. Therefore we can’t say that the increase of ASI figures during 2009 and 2010 are extremely high or unusual.
Further, present ASI value (5414) is almost similar to the figures (5182-5658) in August 2010.
Let me calculate present index with the ASI at the beginning of the year 2007;
ASI at the beginning of 2007. = 2722
ASI (19.03.2012) = 5414
Increase during 5 years and 2 months = 5414-2722= 2692
Increase as a % = 2692x100/2722 =98.89%

So for a period of 5 years ASI increase is only 98.8%.Is it abnormal or too high?
Under this background I do not know whether anyone can say present ASI of our market is too high or manipulated.
Above views are just my thoughts only. May be I am completely wrong. But I think we can discuss little more on my views if anyone is interested.

It was post war mania psycology well engineered by political backed manipulaters.(Everyone knew, do not want to tell because of white van and kelani river matters- you know what I mean)

For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

Dear illu,

I dont say about a massive bull run. What I say is the increase in 2009 and 2010 is not unusual or manipulated.If you calculate from the ASI value at the biginning of 2007 increase up to end 2009 is only 24.35% for three year period. We cant say that unusual. That is my point brother.

And if you calculate the increase for last 5 years it is only 98.8%. Is it unusual?

Rajaraam wrote:

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

Dear illu,

I dont say about a massive bull run. What I say is the increase in 2009 and 2010 is not unusual or manipulated.If you calculate from the ASI value at the biginning of 2007 increase up to end 2009 is only 24.35% for three year period. We cant say that unusual. That is my point brother.

And if you calculate the increase for last 5 years it is only 98.8%. Is it unusual?

No. In fact in 2009/ 2010 we had a genuine bull run.Now the question is my dear Raja, Do you feel this correction unusual ?. Just look at the market. It is simply like how the government sometime back defended the rupee and suddenly allowed the market to operate freely. They are manipulating the stock market with state intervention to delay an imminent crash. How long can they do it ? It is a matter of time, like the rupee.

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

u shld learn basic maths mate. da increase is calculated based on a smaller number bt the correction/decrease is calculated from a bigger number.

ASI 6000 to 7800 means a 30% increase
ASI 7800 to 6000 means a 23% decrease

but da index changes by da same 1800 points .

You got my dear friend.

This is not a math competition. Try to understand the trend.

illuminati wrote:This is not a math competition. Try to understand the trend.

Ok Illu, lets see actual figures and try to undestand the trend:

ASI increase from 2007 to 2009 = 24.35%(for three years total)
ASI increase from 2007 to march 21st 2012( last 5 years and 2 and a 1/2 months) 97.79%
Are these values too high or unusual?

It is good if we try to understand the trend more logical manner brother.

lemuria wrote:

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

u shld learn basic maths mate. da increase is calculated based on a smaller number bt the correction/decrease is calculated from a bigger number.

ASI 6000 to 7800 means a 30% increase
ASI 7800 to 6000 means a 23% decrease

but da index changes by da same 1800 points .

You got my dear friend.

I think you have a valid point lemuria. According to the original post ASI has increase only about 24.35% from 2007 to 2009 end. Not a big increase.

kam2011 wrote:

lemuria wrote:

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

u shld learn basic maths mate. da increase is calculated based on a smaller number bt the correction/decrease is calculated from a bigger number.

ASI 6000 to 7800 means a 30% increase
ASI 7800 to 6000 means a 23% decrease

but da index changes by da same 1800 points .

You got my dear friend.

I think you have a valid point lemuria. According to the original post ASI has increase only about 24.35% from 2007 to 2009 end. Not a big increase.

Yes, That is my point.

Rajaraam wrote:

kam2011 wrote:

lemuria wrote:

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

u shld learn basic maths mate. da increase is calculated based on a smaller number bt the correction/decrease is calculated from a bigger number.

ASI 6000 to 7800 means a 30% increase
ASI 7800 to 6000 means a 23% decrease

but da index changes by da same 1800 points .

You got my dear friend.

I think you have a valid point lemuria. According to the original post ASI has increase only about 24.35% from 2007 to 2009 end. Not a big increase.

Yes, That is my point.

good point, calculate tis

2006 to 2012
2007 to 2012
2008 to 2012 and
2009 to 2012

lemuria wrote:

Rajaraam wrote:

kam2011 wrote:

lemuria wrote:

illuminati wrote:For two consecutive years 2009 & 2010 we had a massive bull run expanding the ASI nearly 100% in each year. Added up to almost 200% gain in two years. Compared to this astronomical gain in the ASI within these two years what is the correction % in 2011 & 2012. Around 10% each year added 20%. It is clear the contraction or correction is merely a fraction of the expansion. Common sense is more than enough to predict the market this year. Having said that you and your Co. have every right to think that a Bull run is just round the corner. At least that is what you and your Co. keep posting all the time. What do you say Mr Raja are you still convinced that a massive Bull run is just about to begin ? However the daily market stats give a different picture with many counters in red reaching one year lows!

u shld learn basic maths mate. da increase is calculated based on a smaller number bt the correction/decrease is calculated from a bigger number.

ASI 6000 to 7800 means a 30% increase
ASI 7800 to 6000 means a 23% decrease

but da index changes by da same 1800 points .

You got my dear friend.

I think you have a valid point lemuria. According to the original post ASI has increase only about 24.35% from 2007 to 2009 end. Not a big increase.

Yes, That is my point.

good point, calculate tis

2006 to 2012
2007 to 2012
2008 to 2012 and
2009 to 2012

2005 t0 2012 is same as 2009 to 2012. That means during the last 7 years ASI has increased only about 255%. Is it too high or unusual for 7 years? And 7 years ago we had heavy battle with terrarists compared to peace situation today.

it is an unusual gain .

econ wrote:it is an unusual gain .

OK econ. But from 2007 to 2012 march 22 increase is around 97%. ( for 5 yaers 2 months and 22 days)Is that unusaul?