*Despite painful but necessary policy reversals in Feb.
*Fitch says steps taken in right direction, but throws in caution
Export earnings recovered in February after falling in January but import growth continued to be strong resulting in the trade deficit bloating up further despite Central Bank policy reversals implemented at the beginning of February to contain import growth and arrest the running down of official reserves.
During the month of February 2012, export earnings grew 7.6 percent from a 0.6 percent decline the previous month, imports grew 27.9 percent from 20.1 percent in January and the trade deficit expanded 67.5 percent, up from 49.7 percent the previous month.
In the first week of February, the Central Bank floated the rupee, raised key policy interest rates and slapped a ceiling on commercial bank lending to the private sector in a bid to contain a balance of payments crisis.
However, by end February reserves had fallen to US$ 5,522 million from US$ 5,806 million a month earlier, latest data released by the Central Bank showed.
Total export earnings for the first two months of the year grew 3.3 percent to US$ 1,796.6 million and imports grew at a faster pace, 24.7 percent to US$ 3,495.7 million. The trade deficit expanded 59.7 percent to US$ 1,063.8 million.
Workers’ remittances grew 22.4 percent to US$ 943.1 million, earnings from tourism grew 28.5 percent to US$ 194.5 million and inflows to the government was up 125.1 percent to US$ 807.6 percent, Central Bank data showed.
The rupee was trading at Rs. 113.89/90 before the Central Bank floated the rupee in the first week of February.
Economists and analysts have heavily criticized the Central Bank and government for acting too late to avert a balance of payments problem. The recent policy reversals have been welcomed, but the late adjustments have only compounded the pain.
The rupee fell slightly last Friday on importer demand, currency dealers said. The rupee closed at Rs. 127.80/128.10 against the greenback, falling from Rs. 126.90/127 the previous day. The rupee fell to an all time low of Rs. 133 in April.
Authorities are blaming speculators for the rupee’s unprecedented fall, but currency dealers said low net open positions prescribed by the Central Bank is the reason for the sharp market volatility.
A recent ratings report by Fitch said "the authorities have taken the appropriate action to correct recent pressure on the balance of payments and place it on a more sustainable trajectory".
"Given the weakened state of Sri Lanka’s external finances and a heavy external debt refinancing schedule through to 2013, the authorities’ ability to persist with policies that address existing macroeconomic imbalances and improving external liquidity is crucial."
"The pace of deterioration in external buffers, rather than their level, is Fitch’s main focus. The level of FX reserves meets with international conventions and does not indicate an immediate risk of substantial balance of payments stress. However, Fitch believes the rapid depletion of FX reserves in H211 has heightened the vulnerability of the Sri Lankan sovereign credit profile to a spike in global risk aversion.
"Therefore, the resumption of IMF tranche disbursements following the implementation of policy measures aimed at macroeconomic rebalancing is a positive development. More importantly, measures implemented by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the government since February 2012 have tightened monetary conditions and could help Sri Lanka to return to a more sustainable GDP growth trajectory over the long-term.
"In the near-term, certain policy measures have resulted in adverse risks to both growth and inflation that have the potential to impact policy consistency. Due to the authorities’ pro-growth bias and the fragile balance of payments, Fitch believes developments in the coming months warrant close monitoring.
"Fitch notes that the government has been able to rationalise expenditure and continue consolidation efforts despite lower-than-expected fiscal revenues. As a result, the fiscal deficit (including grants) narrowed to 6.9% of GDP in 2011 from 8% in 2010 and public debt declined to 78.5% of GDP from 81.9%. Further simplification of the tax system could bolster measures announced in previous budgets and aid in the attraction of greater foreign direct investment inflows.
"Successful implementation and persistent application of policies aimed at improving external liquidity, including further monetary tightening if required, would support the ratings. Concerted efforts to persist with fiscal consolidation, by both enhancing the tax revenue base and rationalising expenditure, in tandem with lowering public debt would be supportive of Sri Lanka’s ratings.
"Conversely, reversal of policy measures leading to further balance of payment pressure would be negative for the ratings. Further FX reserve depletion, resulting from domestic policy or an external shock would likely have the same effect. Deterioration in public debt and budget deficit ratios owing to revenue shortfalls and/or failure to rationalise expenditure would also be negative for the ratings," Fitch said.
Fitch has affirmed the sovereign rating at BB- with a ‘stable’ outlook.
On the other hand, the Asian Development Bank has said the recent policy reversals would have a telling impact on inflation and public debt servicing.
The full text of the Central Bank’s external sector performance report for the month of February 2012 follows:
"In February 2012, earnings from exports increased by 7.6 per cent to US dollars 879 million while the expenditure on imports increased by 27.9 per cent to US dollars 1,581 million over the corresponding month of the previous year.
The largest contribution to the export earnings in February 2012 was from industrial exports. Industrial exports grew by 3.3 per cent, year-on-year in February 2012 mainly driven by gem, diamonds and jewellery and rubber products. Export earnings from gems, diamonds and jewellery increased by 34.1 per cent. Earnings from rubber based products increased by 17.5 per cent due to the continuous high demand from major export destinations, particularly from the USA. Earnings from textiles and garments exports, which accounted for about 40 per cent of total export earnings, increased moderately by 1.4 per cent. Earnings from petroleum products, transport equipment, food, beverages and tobacco, leather, travel goods and footwear and ceramic products declined in February 2012.
Earnings from agricultural exports declined in February 2012, as a result of lower performance recorded in traditional agricultural exports of tea and rubber. Earnings from tea exports declined by 11.6 per cent, year-on-year, to US dollars 105 million mainly due to geo political uncertainties in major tea importing countries in the Middle East. Rubber exports declined by 32.9 per cent to US dollars 18 million due to elevated demand from the domestic rubber manufacturing industries. However, coconut exports increased by 46.5 per cent in February 2012, mainly due to higher production and favourable prices in the international market. Among the non-traditional agricultural exports, earnings from spices declined by 40.4 per cent in February 2012 due to a decrease in the volume of cinnamon, pepper and cloves exports. Vegetables and minor agricultural exports also declined during this period, while unmanufactured tobacco and sea food performed well.
Expenditure on imports increased by 27.9 per cent in February 2012 compared to the same month of the previous year. Expenditure on intermediate goods increased by 36.8 per cent to US dollars 947 million mainly due to higher petroleum imports. Expenditure on petroleum imports increased by 111.7 per cent to US dollars 506 million in February 2012 compared to that of February 2011, reflecting substantial increase in both price and volume of imports.
The average price of crude oil imports increased by 16.2 per cent to US dollars 119.86 per barrel in February 2012. Expenditure on imports of textiles and clothing, fertiliser, diamond and precious stones, vehicles and machinery parts and food preparations declined in February 2012. Reflecting continuous expansion in economic activities, investment goods imports grew by 41.3 per cent to US dollars 380 million in February 2012. All three major categories of investment goods; transport equipment, building materials and machinery and equipment recorded growth rates of 74.4 per cent, 38.6 per cent and 25.6 per cent, respectively.
Expenditure on imports of consumer goods declined by 7.5 per cent to US dollars 251 million in February 2012. Import expenditure on food and beverages declined as prices of major imported food items such as sugar, lentils, onions, chilies and potatoes were lower in the international market.
In cumulative terms, earnings from exports increased marginally by 3.3 per cent to US dollars 1,797 million during January - February 2012 compared with the same period of 2011. Industrial exports, which accounted for 74.2 per cent of total exports, increased by 1 per cent during the first two months of 2012. Among the industrial exports, the textiles and garments and rubber products grew by 1.5 per cent and 19.1 per cent, respectively. Cumulative expenditure on imports during the first two months of 2012 increased by 24.7 per cent to US dollars 3,496 million. Expenditure on investment goods imports increased by 57.8 per cent to US dollars 903 million, mainly on account of machinery and equipment and transport equipment. Expenditure on imports of intermediate goods increased by 22.2 per cent to US dollars 2,044 million during the first two months of 2012. Expenditure on petroleum imports increased by 58.1 per cent to US dollars 1,021 million. However, expenditure on imports of textiles and clothing and gold decreased by 4.8 per cent and 37 per cent, respectively.
Expenditure on consumer goods during the first two months of 2012 decreased by 2.2 per cent to US dollars 539 million. The trade deficit during the January-February 2012 stood at US dollars 1,699 million.
Tourist arrivals in February 2012 increased by 27 per cent to 83,549 while earnings from tourism grew at a healthy rate of 35 per cent to US dollars 86 million compared to the corresponding month of 2011. Worker’s remittances amounted to US dollars 470 million in February 2012 compared to US dollars 393 million in February 2011, recording a year-on-year growth of 19.6 per cent.
By end February 2012, gross official reserves, excluding Asian Clearing Union (ACU) balances, amounted to US dollars 5,522 million. Further, by end February 2012 total external reserves, which include gross official reserves and foreign assets of commercial banks amounted to US dollars 6,774 million. In terms of months of imports, gross official reserves and total external reserves by end February 2012 were equivalent to 3.2 months and 3.9 months, respectively."
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