Is this the time for collection?

StocksWatch · 1 Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 3:18 pm

StocksWatch

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Hi Friends,

I did a quick analysis of the movement of the price of some randomly selected shares over the recent period - Say last one month. See attached table. I only used the liquid shares for this analysis. This analysis shows that the price of some share are down more than 30%.

I know there may be some exceptional reasons affecting share price such as manipulation, announcements of dividends and rights etc but the fact is the prices have come down drastically no matter what the reason is. In my opinion those exceptional factors may have played their role, but the underlying fact for this sharp fall in share prices is the overall market downturn.

So the question is whether this is good time to enter the market and exploit the situation to maximize the return. If the prices return to the level it was one month back, the average gain would be 30%!!!

This is open for your comments and it is advised that no investment decision is taken purely based on the data presented in the attached table.

Attachments

Stock Analysis.xlsx: See attached file for analysis; You don't have permission to download attachments.; (12 Kb) Downloaded 120 times

duke · 2 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 3:44 pm

duke

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Question people should ask is why the CSE went up by almost 100% last year. Then you can find the answer why they have gone down by 30% so far.

tubal · 3 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 3:58 pm

tubal

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duke wrote:Question people should ask is why the CSE went up by almost 100% last year. Then you can find the answer why they have gone down by 30% so far.

Don't worry about the negative rep that someone has given you. People are usually reluctant to face the truth.

duke · 4 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:03 pm

duke

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I just joined today. I couldn't write any good news so far. May be I'll tell a joke. Very Happy

Antonym · 5 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:05 pm

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Duke is right, actually...

Imagine two runners in training. Their names are Performance and Price. Ideally, they should run together.

But, sometimes, Price gets ahead of Performance and has to stop until Performance catches up. Sometimes, like now, Price runs too far ahead - and must go back to Performance, so that they can run together again.

"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”

StocksWatch · 6 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:22 pm

StocksWatch

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The question asked is whether it is right time to enter/collect and not why some shares are down by 30%. when the market is down, it will not only affect those overvalued shares. It will also push the price of fundamentally strong shares down such as LOLC. In my view the market may be heading towards an over correction...not knowing which is the correct level.

Academic · 7 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:42 pm

Academic

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"The best comes last". In Sinhalese "Eliwena gameta honda honda sellam".

SS · 8 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:07 pm

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Collect Buddy only if you have the holding power. buy good shares with fundamentals do little bit of analysis. Do not buy just becoz the shares is at a discount compared to the previous months. As i belive there are few stocks which was priced based on mere news paper articles without tangible evidences. So be careful.

Happy Trading....

:bball: :bball:

Antonym · 9 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:20 pm

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@StocksWatch: Sorry about my comment that was not relevant to your topic.

To answer your question - Yes, this IS the time for collection.
1. I firmly believe that the CSE will bounce back, but when that is likely to happen is anybody's guess.
2. It is always a good idea to fish for undervalued stocks in a declining market like this. But keep some spare cash, so that if the market does go down further, you can buy some more.

By the way, can you guess who said: “I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two.”?

mark · 10 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:49 pm

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only 13 market days to go.............if you have money collect fundamentally sound counters and hold until next month...............but try to buy at bargain.......wait for seller comes to your order.......... Cool

duke don't worry............ Smile

smallville · 11 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:19 pm

smallville

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Though the share prices are down, fundamentally strong counters are performing well.. so u dont have to be afraid of fishing in this troubled waters..
But the best strategy is buying at the max low it could go and keep till this comes to normal price.. if it comes there i know where it gonna head next Wink

This time is really good, I'm thinking what more down this can go. .this is like Oct-Nov again.. so many of us have gone on debts now so if you have the holding power buy n keep.

milanka · 12 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:54 pm

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duke wrote:Question people should ask is why the CSE went up by almost 100% last year. Then you can find the answer why they have gone down by 30% so far.

Very Valid Question. Awating a answer for that.

Rajitha · 13 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:43 pm

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Antonym wrote:

"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”

Considering a healthy market it will! But not necessarily it happens! I can name some really liquid stocks that are doing great and trading way below the market PER. Also the share never appreciated more than 5-10% for years and has been trading around same value for over 5-6 years now! And the chances are that it will not for couple of more years looks really highly likely!

Pira · 14 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:51 pm

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I saw that the Foreign Purchases was higher than the Foreign Sales.

Foreign Purchases 75,301,870/= Rs.
Foreign Sales 58,351,131/= Rs.
(source: www.cse.lk daily report)

Is that a good indication? The amount is not very high, but it's higher than the Foreign Sales.

Antonym · 15 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:30 pm

Antonym

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Rajitha wrote:

Antonym wrote:
"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”

I can name some really liquid stocks that are doing great and trading way below the market PER. Also the share never appreciated more than 5-10% for years and has been trading around same value for over 5-6 years now! And the chances are that it will not for couple of more years looks really highly likely!

@Rajitha: Please name them; these look like an opportunity. I would like to analyze the companies' financial statements and decide for myself.

@Pira: I think we are clutching at straws here. Net foreign purchases of Rs 17 million on one isolated day is nothing after the spate of selling that we have seen. If this continues and increases, of course, it may be a different story.

Rajitha · 16 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:38 pm

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JINS, KHL , LIOC ( though I think this might go up in medium term ) to name a few. I'm sure there are a lot mroe like this!

Pira · 17 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:41 pm

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Antonym wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Antonym wrote:
"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”

I can name some really liquid stocks that are doing great and trading way below the market PER. Also the share never appreciated more than 5-10% for years and has been trading around same value for over 5-6 years now! And the chances are that it will not for couple of more years looks really highly likely!

@Rajitha: Please name them; these look like an opportunity. I would like to analyze the companies' financial statements and decide for myself.

@Pira: I think we are clutching at straws here. Net foreign purchases of Rs 17 million on one isolated day is nothing after the spate of selling that we have seen. If this continues and increases, of course, it may be a different story.

I hope ti will happen very soon. It's very atractiv now. I'm trying to convince my friends in Foreign to invest in cse. It's a good time to make some advertising. bounce

shaankh · 18 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:44 pm

shaankh

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Stock market is not going to close even though it is dropping.
So it will come up at any moment.

There is no definite reason for continuing bearish market.

I am collecting really undervalued shares these days.

Probably will bounce back in end of april.

StocksWatch · 19 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:46 pm

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Pira wrote:

Antonym wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

Antonym wrote:
"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”

I can name some really liquid stocks that are doing great and trading way below the market PER. Also the share never appreciated more than 5-10% for years and has been trading around same value for over 5-6 years now! And the chances are that it will not for couple of more years looks really highly likely!

@Rajitha: Please name them; these look like an opportunity. I would like to analyze the companies' financial statements and decide for myself.

@Pira: I think we are clutching at straws here. Net foreign purchases of Rs 17 million on one isolated day is nothing after the spate of selling that we have seen. If this continues and increases, of course, it may be a different story.

I hope ti will happen very soon. It's very atractiv now. I'm trying to convince my friends in Foreign to invest in cse. It's a good time to make some advertising.

Are you referring to Sri Lankans living in abroad or non-Sri Lankans? Either way if you can manage to attract some potential investors the market will benefit. Keep it up.

Pira · 20 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:54 pm

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@StocksWatch:
They are non-resident Srilankan but they know some non-Sri Lankans so I hope they will then recommend they to invest here

undervalued · 21 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:07 pm

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[quote="Pira"]@StocksWatch:
They are non-resident Srilankan but they know some non-Sri Lankans so I hope they will then recommend they to invest here[/quote]

Enough of BLAH BLAH ...Market won't bounce back until the ASPI hit 6500....Some folks say ASPI will touch 10000 this year...

ShareShares · 22 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:15 pm

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It is difficult to say which is the lowest level, this level is good enough for me. I collected few shares today some chips were lower than December levels. This morning prices were some of the best I could collect after long period. Medium terms there will some benefits. Colleted some banking shares, Carsons CINV and GUAR.

duke · 23 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:36 pm

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I collected some HNB, COMB, JKH, SPEN and RICH

(Actually I didn't buy any today but I have an old lot. I hope that reading this people will start buying so that the price will not go further down. rabbit

)

xmart · 24 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:37 pm

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I don't think so. market smash 50 day EMA without any sign. but today volume is low. hope panic traders and margin holders dominate today market while investors staying away from market being cautious.

somebody should come to rescue market. EPF is only hope. anyway i hardly believe market may bounce back before ASI 7000 mark. if not I will quit until bulls came into action.

duke · 25 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:54 pm

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Is this the time for collection?

1 Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 3:18 pm

StocksWatch

2 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 3:44 pm

duke

3 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 3:58 pm

tubal

4 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:03 pm

duke

5 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:05 pm

Antonym

6 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:22 pm

StocksWatch

7 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 4:42 pm

Academic

8 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:07 pm

SS

9 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:20 pm

Antonym

10 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 5:49 pm

mark

11 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:19 pm

smallville

12 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:54 pm

milanka

13 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:43 pm

Rajitha

14 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:51 pm

Pira

15 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:30 pm

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16 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:38 pm

Rajitha

17 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:41 pm

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18 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:44 pm

shaankh

19 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:46 pm

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20 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:54 pm

Pira

21 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:07 pm

undervalued

22 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:15 pm

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23 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:36 pm

duke

24 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:37 pm

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25 Re: Is this the time for collection? Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:54 pm

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