Important Day

DUWI · 1 Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:44 am

DUWI

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Today is an important day, as the All Share Price Index is hovering just below a critical technical indicator - 4939. If the ASPI breaks through this level conclusively and holds on to the gains for a couple of days, then, share prices could breakout into a new trend i.e. upwards, until resistance is reached at the 200 day moving Average. Technically, the market is deeply oversold.

K.Haputantri · 2 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:57 am

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DUWI wrote:Today is an important day, as the All Share Price Index is hovering just below a critical technical indicator - 4939. If the ASPI breaks through this level conclusively and holds on to the gains for a couple of days, then, share prices could breakout into a new trend i.e. upwards, until resistance is reached at the 200 day moving Average. Technically, the market is deeply oversold.

?Any technical charts supporting your point. My gut feeling is its a shortlived fake rally.

worthiness · 3 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:33 pm

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DUWI,

First barrier 4939 is passed. What will be the next technical indicator expected with the validity of technical approach. Thx

DUWI · 4 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:54 pm

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Yes, the ASPI seems to have broken above a VERY CRITICAL technical INFLECTION point - i.e. 4939. However, for the trend to be validated, the ASPI must hold above this level for a couple of days at least. The ASPI may retrace back to this INFLECTION point 4939 but bounce back upwards thereafter.

The next resistance level is the 200 day Moving Average, which will be in the range of 5420-5440.

Slstock · 5 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:58 pm

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DUWI before 5400 , there are other smaller but notable resistances aren;t there?

DUWI wrote:Yes, the ASPI seems to have broken above a VERY CRITICAL technical INFLECTION point - i.e. 4939. However, for the trend to be validated, the ASPI must hold above this level for a couple of days at least. The ASPI may retrace back to this INFLECTION point 4939 but bounce back upwards thereafter.

The next resistance level is the 200 day Moving Average, which will be in the range of 5420-5440.

DUWI · 6 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:06 pm

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Yes, but with the market being deeply oversold, the intermediate resistance levels may prove to be only pausing points and opportunities to take profit and re-structure trading portfolios.

The trend would strengthen if interest rates begin to decline, adding further fuel to the rally.

RIO · 7 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:39 pm

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DUWI wrote:Yes, the ASPI seems to have broken above a VERY CRITICAL technical INFLECTION point - i.e. 4939. However, for the trend to be validated, the ASPI must hold above this level for a couple of days at least. The ASPI may retrace back to this INFLECTION point 4939 but bounce back upwards thereafter.

The next resistance level is the 200 day Moving Average, which will be in the range of 5420-5440.

For anything positive.......PRAY all the GODS.........BUKI, CARS not to be traded.... Amen..... Very Happy

Slstock · 8 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:41 pm

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Oh yes, it can inflated the indices like a balloon and give wrong impression for a consistent market up.

RIO wrote:

DUWI wrote:Yes, the ASPI seems to have broken above a VERY CRITICAL technical INFLECTION point - i.e. 4939. However, for the trend to be validated, the ASPI must hold above this level for a couple of days at least. The ASPI may retrace back to this INFLECTION point 4939 but bounce back upwards thereafter.

The next resistance level is the 200 day Moving Average, which will be in the range of 5420-5440.

For anything positive.......PRAY all the GODS.........BUKI, CARS not to be traded.... Amen.....

DUWI · 9 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:54 pm

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As it was to be, at the end of the day, the ASPI did not actually break through the 4939 INFLECTION POINT. The ASPI ended the day right on top of the INFLECTION POINT. Lets see how it goes tomorrow.

bandulaweera · 10 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 7:02 pm

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I have a feeling that the market will improve over the next two days. However, for the market to sustain there should be positive action from the SEC. Resignation of the Chairman could be good news if replaced by a honest business executive. No more political appointees pls.

CSE_KING · 11 Important Day Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:33 pm

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What happened? I was out...

DUWI · 12 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:04 pm

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Sorry CSE_KING, I was out for a couple of days.

The ASPI failed at the first attempt to break through the critical inflection point of 4939. It rose to that level on the dot and retreated. Now it seems to be pausing for breath and gathering steam to make another attempt at pushing through this critical inflection point, which now has moved down to 4933 (It is Moving Average based). Lets see what happens on Monday.

The critical fundamental variable is the benchmark 12 month treasury bill rate, which is at 13.5%. This is sort of an equilibrium level as, an increase above 14% would signal further monetary pressure in the lead up to the end of the year. Historically, equities have underperformed when the 12M T Bill yield has risen above 14%.

DUWI · 13 IMPORTANT DAY (II) Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:54 pm

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Following on from the previous thread IMPORTANT DAY, today, the All Share Price Index (ASPI) penetrated above the critical technical inflection point of 4929 and held on to its gains. This is a very positive event and this has occurred for the first time since the market's peak in February 2011. All previous attempts of the ASPI to penetrate this inflection point have failed. The next few days would be very critical and if the ASPI holds above this inflection point, the market could be settling into new trend and shedding its shackles from the prolonged bear market.

DUWI · 14 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:26 am

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Following the break above the key technical inflection/resistance point of 4929 on the ASPI on Monday, 20 August 2012, the market moved up strongly on Tuesday, 21 August 2012. This was a very positive signal and indicated that the market had the much needed POSITIVE ENERGY to break above this key Resistance Level. This is the first time that the ASPI had done so since the peak in February 2011. It also indicated that the market had expended much of the NEGATIVE ENERGY (mostly due to cash withdrawals on account of the over-priced IPOs in 2011 and rising interest rates and reduced earnings growth expectations) that brought down share prices over the past year and a half.

Although in the short term, the ASPI may pull back or move sideways as the energy/fuel (cash) expended in moving above this key technical resistance/inflection point needs to be replenished, it is most likely that the market is now at the beginning of a Bear Market Rally. I say Bear Market Rally because there is still considerable pressure on multiple fundamental/macroeconomic fronts, i.e. the exchange rate (due to a very high trade deficit), interest rates (due to unchecked Government spending) and reduced corporate earnings growth expectations/performance. This means that the market would not re-rate to the high Price/Earnings multiples that we saw at the peak of the Bull run in February 2011.

On the upside, the ASPI could now reach the next key resistance level of the 200 Day Moving Average, which is in the region of 5350.

Hope the above helps in understanding the market, which I believe is the primary purpose of the forum. Please feel free to contradict.

smallville · 15 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 am

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DUWI wrote:Yes, the ASPI seems to have broken above a VERY CRITICAL technical INFLECTION point - i.e. 4939. However, for the trend to be validated, the ASPI must hold above this level for a couple of days at least. The ASPI may retrace back to this INFLECTION point 4939 but bounce back upwards thereafter.

The next resistance level is the 200 day Moving Average, which will be in the range of 5420-5440.

DUWI wrote:
On the upside, the ASPI could now reach the next key resistance level of the 200 Day Moving Average, which is in the region of 5350.

Hope the above helps in understanding the market, which I believe is the primary purpose of the forum. Please feel free to contradict.

Now which one is real 200 day MA? 5420-5440 or 5350?

The closest Fibonacci resistance (23%) is given as 5462 by DFN. But DFN figures dont match with visual figures. Hence I expect the range for 23% Fib to be in 5320-5340.

Resistance targets of 5320-5350 is anyway valid Wink

Last edited by smallville on Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:49 am; edited 1 time in total

DUWI · 16 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:42 am

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As Moving Averages go, they are variables and move with time. The resistance or support level will depend on the Moving Average Value on a particular day. As of today, the 200 day MA is at 5428. But this will move down as time passes. So the resistance/support level will change with time.

DUWI · 17 Re: Important Day Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:20 pm

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VERY POSITIVE SIGNAL

Having broken through the critical technical inflection point of 4929 on the ASPI on Monday, 20 August 2012 (look at my previous posts headlined IMPORTANT DAY), the market has managed to hold onto its gains and move ahead. This is a VERY POSITIVE SIGNAL and reflects the HIGH LEVEL OF POSITIVE ENERGY in the market.

The next KEY LEVEL of RESISTANCE for the ASPI is the 200 Day Moving Average, which, as of today is at 5415. However, this is a moving average and will move down as time passes. Therefore, my estimate of the 200 Day MA RESISTANCE LEVEL is around 5350 as mentioned previously.

However, prior to rising to this 200 Day MA RESISTANCE LEVEL, the ASPI would likely pull back or move sideways, as the energy expended in the ongoing rally needs to be replenished i.e. an inevitable profit taking cycle has to end and new money has to be attracted.

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Important Day

1 Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:44 am

DUWI

2 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 10:57 am

K.Haputantri

3 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:33 pm

worthiness

4 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:54 pm

DUWI

5 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:58 pm

Slstock

6 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:06 pm

DUWI

7 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:39 pm

RIO

8 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:41 pm

Slstock

9 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:54 pm

DUWI

10 Re: Important Day Wed Aug 15, 2012 7:02 pm

bandulaweera

11 Important Day Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:33 pm

CSE_KING

12 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 17, 2012 7:04 pm

DUWI

13 IMPORTANT DAY (II) Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:54 pm

DUWI

14 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:26 am

DUWI

15 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 am

smallville

16 Re: Important Day Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:42 am

DUWI

17 Re: Important Day Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:20 pm

DUWI

18 Re: Important Day

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