Valuation of popular plantations

smallville · 1 Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 4:56 pm

smallville

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Valuation of popular plantations Planta11

I surprisingly have found the plantations sector PE has come down as @ 25-03-11.. Hence I just had a quick revaluation on the most popular counters in this sector.
Here's a screen shot of my calculations..Also with this I'm giving you all in one comparison with adjusted figures. You can what counters are performing well at current prices and the valuation based on the last qtr results..

All the figures are taken after deducting "Other income" & "minority interest" portions from the quarterly reports, therefore; yu may see slight difference in stated figures and my figures. So I've indicated the company announced EPS (wherever necessary Annualized) and my calculation as well..The purpose of removing such income was to find out how much the core business is thriving without any other income.

Hope this will be useful for your investment decisions...Also my original valuation on two most prominent counters still remain same Wink

Note:- To have a better view, you have to save this image to your PC.. cuz the last part is not displayed due to forum restrictions I think.

Need your views on this as well and pls Do more analysis... Razz

Last edited by Quibit on Sun Mar 27, 2011 9:31 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Width of the Picture adjusted to 550 Pixel)

Rajitha · 2 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:13 pm

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Yes KAGL,NAMU and HOPL are way undervalued counter ATM.
BTW although AGAL seems to be fairly valued already from just considering its PE its not when you consider other factors!
AGAL have huge Plam oil crop that is about to kick in( Will be able to see in next quarter reports)!
Another 857(Ha) of rubber + 225(Ha) of oil palm immature crop!
Also its subs started converted to have profits from last quarter.
Most of the shares are locked up with people who does not want to sell them!

smallville · 3 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:38 pm

smallville

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Rajitha wrote: Yes KAGL,NAMU and HOPL are way undervalued counter ATM.
BTW although AGAL seems to be fairly valued already from just considering its PE its not when you consider other factors!
AGAL have huge Plam oil crop that is about to kick in( Will be able to see in next quarter reports)!
Another 857(Ha) of rubber + 225(Ha) of oil palm immature crop!
Also its subs started converted to have profits from last quarter.
Most of the shares are locked up with people who does not want to sell them!

Thanks Rajitha, I was a bit skeptical on AGAL at first.. have to check on that more.. Isn't AGAL's palm contribution is lower?
How much would you consider in PAT growth for KGAL, NAMU & HOPL in the coming qtrs?

chamith · 4 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:38 pm

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Good analysis
+ rep from me...

According to Asia wealth management research, EPS for some plantations are:

.............NAMU..........KGAL
2008...........9.7...........16.8
2009...........1.7........... 8.2
2010...........6.2.......... 15.0
2011E........19.4.......... 31.3

NAMU has well diversified portfolio in tea, rubber and oil palm. You can download the full research report using the following link.

NAMU - CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD

kam2011 · 5 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:58 pm

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Excellent! Thank u for your analysis Smallville. In fact Very useful study.

Paypal · 6 Plantation sector Sat Mar 26, 2011 7:55 pm

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Great Analysis, Thank you Smile

I would like to go for KGAL than other shares. There is a possibility for a Plantation sector rally again with the end of this month. What do you think guys?

Max · 7 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:26 am

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smallville wrote:

Rajitha wrote: Yes KAGL,NAMU and HOPL are way undervalued counter ATM.
BTW although AGAL seems to be fairly valued already from just considering its PE its not when you consider other factors!
AGAL have huge Plam oil crop that is about to kick in( Will be able to see in next quarter reports)!
Another 857(Ha) of rubber + 225(Ha) of oil palm immature crop!
Also its subs started converted to have profits from last quarter.
Most of the shares are locked up with people who does not want to sell them!

Thanks Rajitha, I was a bit skeptical on AGAL at first.. have to check on that more.. Isn't AGAL's palm contribution is lower?
How much would you consider in PAT growth for KGAL, NAMU & HOPL in the coming qtrs?

I personally think that the last quarter earnings of agalawatte should be more than what is stated...maybe it will reflect in this quarter results...
My 2 cents....

aship · 8 Re-Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:58 am

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Hi Smallville,

Thank you for the valuable info.

Pls let me know how did you take the Sector P/E as at 25/03/2011

Old P/E is available in the CSE site.

Thanks

Quibit · 9 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:12 am

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Great evaluation!!
I am convinced to invest in more plantation stocks!! HOPL and KOTA my picks! I am expecting better than forecast results for KOTA in Q4.

dr aruna · 10 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:50 am

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but last quoter heavy rainfall and coming wedge hike even rubber plantation s are not attractive

shan · 11 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:59 pm

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MADU NAVPS 72.70 coming first quarter results they have profits.

smallville · 12 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:40 pm

smallville

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Here's my PE table taken from CSE.LK as @ 25-03-11
Valuation of popular plantations Sector11

I just checked some oil-palm reviews, so as Rajitha implied, I think AGAL will have a good Q1/2011 due to oil palm price hike..

Dr. Aruna,
Last rainy season was in Q4/2010, and results are already included here.. whats not yet disclosed is Q1 profits.. in other words, End of financial year results form most plantations...Rubber plantations are least affected by wage hike.. its only Tea.. So u can see that I've avoided analyzing of Tea only plantations.. My main bullish factor depends on Rubber & Oil-Palm.

Quibi.. Better than KOTA, I'd urge you to look at HOPL & AGAL more... Wink

PLs note that this analysis is on current eranings basis, I've not assumed the Q1/2011 results to be 10-20% increase and do the math.. There's no hypothesis...
So this valuation is valid only for the current earnings.. Now if u carefullt observer, u can find that some plantation prices are absurdly lower now that their earnings..Even at 30-50% discounts to sector PE, those are trading low..Those are the real undervalued counters.. And some as I mentioned will have growth even if not undervalued, due to increasing raw prices..

Real investors should now realize the value of these plantations and we've seen some collection going on as well..

Last edited by Quibit on Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:37 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Width of the Picture adjusted to 550 Pixel)

Rajitha · 13 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:36 pm

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smallville wrote:

Thanks Rajitha, I was a bit skeptical on AGAL at first.. have to check on that more.. Isn't AGAL's palm contribution is lower?
How much would you consider in PAT growth for KGAL, NAMU & HOPL in the coming qtrs?

hi man! Well AGAL ATM have 939 (Ha) of Mature cultivated Palm oil and 225(Ha) of Immature Palm oil! So thats quite high compared with others and as a leader in the field NAMU also only got 1200(Ha) and they expecting to have it to be 1600(Ha) by 2016. But i would say by then AGAL would have more than NAMU!
AS a % wise also the their Palm oil crop is quite good as the rubber mature extent is 3453 and for Tea 1465! They keep taking off tea and planting rubber + palm oil. Not the mention the huge land available to them for the replanting compared with other plantations!
Just FYI check who's land the join venture palm oil miss is situated at!
Anyway I have all 3 ELPL,NAMU, AGAL and I expect a bright future for all palm oil plantations!

Quibit · 14 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:43 pm

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You know why I think KOTA is good becos they will make 1 bn profit for the year end.... 31st March 2011, Which means EPS more than Rs 30/= Price @ 20 PER will make KOTA share worth more than Rs 600/=. I don't want Rs 600/=............ give me Rs 300/=

Btw, I understand why LDEV not in the evaluation. I will always buy AGARAPATNA PLANTATION (LDEV)... @ any price below Rs 70/=... you guys have not yet seen the value of LDEV. Can anyone guess Agrapatna (LDEV) profits for the year end?

My picks still remain HOPL, KOTA, LDEV (agrapatna plantation)

Meta Trader · 15 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:06 pm

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this was a much needed update man. + from me. Twisted Evil

well i sold majority of other shares at the peak but HOPL
even when it was at above 90 level i didn't sell it .
instinct i guess Wink

smallville · 16 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:23 pm

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Quibit wrote:You know why I think KOTA is good becos they will make 1 bn profit for the year end.... 31st March 2011, Which means EPS more than Rs 30/= Price @ 20 PER will make KOTA share worth more than Rs 600/=. I don't want Rs 600/=............ give me Rs 300/=

Btw, I understand why LDEV not in the evaluation. I will always buy AGARAPATNA PLANTATION (LDEV)... @ any price below Rs 70/=... you guys have not yet seen the value of LDEV. Can anyone guess Agrapatna (LDEV) profits for the year end?

My picks still remain HOPL, KOTA, LDEV (agrapatna plantation)

If KOTA can reach 1B target, KGAL is bound to reach more than that.. cuz KGAL already has 490Mn for last 3qtrs and KOTA only has 397Mn up to now..
I'm not saying that KOTA cant, but being a lankem plantation, it has its potential too.. but we cant forget KGAL on the quest as its backed by Richard Peiris plantations.

I'd hope if all these plantations have its values come closer to sector price rather than a discount to reflect their true values..

I didnt leave out LDEV purposely, I was not impressed with it so didnt go for it due to this sister company transfer and asking money from minority share holders to finance it Wink

.. So whats to special abt this Agarapathana?

Also ELPL was missing.. So now I need to add those two as well Wink

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Valuation of popular plantations

1 Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 4:56 pm

smallville

2 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:13 pm

Rajitha

3 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:38 pm

smallville

4 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:38 pm

chamith

5 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:58 pm

kam2011

6 Plantation sector Sat Mar 26, 2011 7:55 pm

Paypal

7 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:26 am

Max

8 Re-Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:58 am

aship

9 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:12 am

Quibit

10 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:50 am

dr aruna

11 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:59 pm

shan

12 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:40 pm

smallville

13 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 7:36 pm

Rajitha

14 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 10:43 pm

Quibit

15 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:06 pm

Meta Trader

16 Re: Valuation of popular plantations Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:23 pm

smallville

17 Re: Valuation of popular plantations

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