Top 20 market capitalization

pls find the below snap shot to understand what are the top 20 list, which are more effecting to indexes.

Remember the time BUKI nearly caught up with JKH to be the first and making ASI the highest ever.

opfdo wrote:pls find the below snap shot to understand what are the top 20 list, which are more effecting to indexes.

Its bit scary to looking into share prices of some of these high caps. these 20 companies hold more than 52% of market share and only a handful of it we can say either fairly value or under value.

These big boys + GREG and oil sector companies have to produce good results in coming quarters. If not our market will not be attractive (pretty soon).

JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

On the other side these shares are pushing PE, NAV of market high in addition .

PERs as at yesterday of top 20 caps. See how far they over valued ??

JKH.N0000 27.94
CTC.N0000 16.88
COMB.N0000 9.02
CARS.N0000 63.46
SLTL.N0000 39.79
BUKI.N0000 55.88
NEST.N0000 25.05
DIAL.N0000 84.12
SPEN.N0000 20.79
HNB.N0000 10.04
DIST.N0000 7.91
CARG.N0000 38.95
AHPL.N0000 22.95
SAMP.N0000 6.06
DFCC.N0000 12.39
CTHR.N0000 25.07
CLC.N0000 5.27
LOLC.N0000 10.37
AHUN.N0000 39.22
VONE.N0000 12.62

slstock wrote:JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

On the other side these shares are pushing PE, NAV of market high in addition .

hey, do you know what i found. I just input for top 20 caps PER as 18 & assumed that other stocks price not changed (taken yeaterday - 14th Sep 2012 prices),

ASI indicates as - 6014.93
TOP cap is - COMB - market cap will be 179,800,884,461.54.

I may be wrong, just calculate.

TOP 20 prices will be,


JKH.N0000 140.40
CTC.N0000 748.08
COMB.N0000 230.77
CARS.N0000 129.60
SLTL.N0000 21.17
BUKI.N0000 249.69
NEST.N0000 833.77
DIAL.N0000 1.54
SPEN.N0000 113.79
HNB.N0000 296.67
DIST.N0000 350.64
CARG.N0000 79.20
AHPL.N0000 66.26
SAMP.N0000 626.48
DFCC.N0000 184.54
CTHR.N0000 121.68
CLC.N0000 16.38
LOLC.N0000 99.26
AHUN.N0000 36.72
VONE.N0000 33.66

Presume you took last quarter and x 4 which might not give best representation for most companies.
Also CLC has massive one time capital gain in results and if I recall PBV is around 1 and is overvalued.

opfdo wrote:PERs as at yesterday of top 20 caps. See how far they over valued ??

JKH.N0000 27.94
CTC.N0000 16.88
COMB.N0000 9.02
CARS.N0000 63.46
SLTL.N0000 39.79
BUKI.N0000 55.88
NEST.N0000 25.05
DIAL.N0000 84.12
SPEN.N0000 20.79
HNB.N0000 10.04
DIST.N0000 7.91
CARG.N0000 38.95
AHPL.N0000 22.95
SAMP.N0000 6.06
DFCC.N0000 12.39
CTHR.N0000 25.07
CLC.N0000 5.27
LOLC.N0000 10.37
AHUN.N0000 39.22
VONE.N0000 12.62

slstock wrote:JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

On the other side these shares are pushing PE, NAV of market high in addition .

Colombo Stock Exchange with Standard & Poor’s launched a new Sri Lanka index to track the top 20 largest capitalised stocks that trade on CSE.

Stocks currently included in S&P Sri Lanka 20

Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
John Keells Holdings PLC
Bukit Darah PLC
Hatton National Bank PLC
Carson Cumberbatch PLC
Sampath Bank
Ceylon Tobacco Co. PLC
DFCC Bank
Aitken Spence PLC
National Development Bank
CT Holdings PLC
Distilleries Co of Sri Lanka PLC
Hayleys PLC
Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC
Dialog Axiata PLC
Cargills (Ceylon) PLC
Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC
Nestle Lanka PLC
Asian Hotels and Properties PLC
Sri Lanka Telecom

Government target bring up this S&P index.

yes sls, I took as you mentioned, you are correct, but normally we are assuming like that ne. that is why i took so.

[quote="slstock"]Presume you took last quarter and x 4 which might not give best representation for most companies.
Also CLC has massive one time capital gain in results and if I recall PBV is around 1 and is overvalued.

slstock wrote:JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

On the other side these shares are pushing PE, NAV of market high in addition .

Hi slstock

There are very specific reasons why some shares trade at a premium to others. sometimes, these reasons are very apparent and sometimes they are hidden. Some of these companies are hidden value, sleepng giants, when awakened, will surprise many. As they say, beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. same with value. what seems overvalued to some may be undervalued to others. Furthermore, comparing a low p/e small cap to a high p/e large cap is akin to comparing apples to oranges. small companies may trade at low p/e's as the quantum of cash / profit they generate is smaller than the larger companies. Thus the deployment of the current earnings of smaller cap low p/e companies for future growth will also limited. Some of these larger cap higher p/e companies generate huge cash / profits that enable to expand / acquire / merge big ticket deals that then makes their companies grow exponentially due to the multiplier effect.
some of the reasons why these big caps trade at a premium to market p/e's are as follows :

1. JKH - Trading at approx 15 times ? forward earnings. This is one of the go to stocks for foreign institutions and local HNWI. No controlling shareholder, very liquid, excellent professional management, very good corporate governance and transparency, big ticket deals in the future. due to these factors, they are willing to pay the premium
p/e although they could buy a smaller, equally good company like DOCK for say 7-8 times earnings.

2. CTHR / CARGILLS Group - This is another hidden / sleeping giant that will surprise many in the future. Their Walls ice cream and Maccalum Brewery acquisitions were plums at bargain price. They have big plans for their supermarket chain expansion, the Brewery business and the Banking venture. Additionally their Real Estate and Property Development Portfolio, Ceramic Sector, Plantation, makes them a well diversified sleeping giant.

3. BUKI / CARSONS Group - There are many reasons to be excited about this group's future.

a. Approx Rs 5 Billion in Fair Value Gain in Biological assets will only be recognised in the Income Statement on 31st March 2013. Also note that 1st quater 2012 profits understated by factors such Forex Losses, Mark to Market of Investment Portfolios (these have no cash flow impact. only reduces Profit), additional Profit in Inventory.
b. In June this year, GoodHope Asia revamped its Director Board. First time they appointed a Non Executive Chairman and two Independent Non Executive Directors. Very interesting Profiles. You can check on their website. Now, what can this mean ? ! IMHO, the value of GoodHope Asia is more than the current marketcap of JKH.
c. Last week, Bernanke announced QE3. This coupled with the fact that the worst drought in US History has damaged the Soybean crop, Crude Oil prices shooting up etc, may positively impact Palm Oil prices in the coming months.

some comments extracted from PalmOil HQ site in the past week are as folls :

Quote
CPO prices will also likely be supported by tight vegetable oil markets–dwindling soybean supplies from the U.S. amid robust demand, a second Kuala Lumpur-based trader said, noting that the U.S. already has sold 70% of the projected exports for the 2012-13 marketing year that started Sept. 1.

"We believe crude palm oil prices are close to bottoming out and will regain upward trajectory once we are past the peak production in September and October," Macquarie Research said in a note Friday.

CPO is priced attractively relative to soyoil, trading at a $300/ton price discount compared with the historical average of $150/ton, which should shift demand, it said.

Deteriorating soy supplies in the U.S. at a time of rising Southeast Asian CPO supplies are keeping soyoil's premium at more than $300/ton to palm oil. The wide price gap limits further falls, Rabobank said in a note. "Tight supplies of soyoil will increasingly shift demand to palm oil in coming months."

Hopes of further stimulus measures in China are also rising, which is positive for CPO, a Singapore-based trader said, referring to a hint from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Tuesday that China is ready to inject massive stimulus into the economy.

Morgan Stanley forecast in a report this week that CPO prices could touch as high as $1,200/ton, or about MYR3,685/ton, by the second quarter of next year as demand from China and India is expected to rebound.
Unquote
To summarize, Big Caps may trade at Premium Market P/E's as they discount future events that are not apparent right now.

Hi alchemist ,

I do accept the fact, that there are reasons , hidden reasons and growth expectation which will let some shares trade at premium valuations. I also do agree with most of the facts you pointed out.

However my present worry is , while we still see lot of under valued shares to sector and market, these big boys running too far will inflate , ASI and then PE / BV too much and give the wrong picture to outsiders. Then the negative people and the worried will have reason to make things bad.

The Alchemist wrote:

slstock wrote:JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

On the other side these shares are pushing PE, NAV of market high in addition .

Hi slstock

There are very specific reasons why some shares trade at a premium to others. sometimes, these reasons are very apparent and sometimes they are hidden. Some of these companies are hidden value, sleepng giants, when awakened, will surprise many. As they say, beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. same with value. what seems overvalued to some may be undervalued to others. Furthermore, comparing a low p/e small cap to a high p/e large cap is akin to comparing apples to oranges. small companies may trade at low p/e's as the quantum of cash / profit they generate is smaller than the larger companies. Thus the deployment of the current earnings of smaller cap low p/e companies for future growth will also limited. Some of these larger cap higher p/e companies generate huge cash / profits that enable to expand / acquire / merge big ticket deals that then makes their companies grow exponentially due to the multiplier effect.
some of the reasons why these big caps trade at a premium to market p/e's are as follows :

1. JKH - Trading at approx 15 times ? forward earnings. This is one of the go to stocks for foreign institutions and local HNWI. No controlling shareholder, very liquid, excellent professional management, very good corporate governance and transparency, big ticket deals in the future. due to these factors, they are willing to pay the premium
p/e although they could buy a smaller, equally good company like DOCK for say 7-8 times earnings.

2. CTHR / CARGILLS Group - This is another hidden / sleeping giant that will surprise many in the future. Their Walls ice cream and Maccalum Brewery acquisitions were plums at bargain price. They have big plans for their supermarket chain expansion, the Brewery business and the Banking venture. Additionally their Real Estate and Property Development Portfolio, Ceramic Sector, Plantation, makes them a well diversified sleeping giant.

3. BUKI / CARSONS Group - There are many reasons to be excited about this group's future.

a. Approx Rs 5 Billion in Fair Value Gain in Biological assets will only be recognised in the Income Statement on 31st March 2013. Also note that 1st quater 2012 profits understated by factors such Forex Losses, Mark to Market of Investment Portfolios (these have no cash flow impact. only reduces Profit), additional Profit in Inventory.
b. In June this year, GoodHope Asia revamped its Director Board. First time they appointed a Non Executive Chairman and two Independent Non Executive Directors. Very interesting Profiles. You can check on their website. Now, what can this mean ? ! IMHO, the value of GoodHope Asia is more than the current marketcap of JKH.
c. Last week, Bernanke announced QE3. This coupled with the fact that the worst drought in US History has damaged the Soybean crop, Crude Oil prices shooting up etc, may positively impact Palm Oil prices in the coming months.

some comments extracted from PalmOil HQ site in the past week are as folls :

Quote
CPO prices will also likely be supported by tight vegetable oil markets–dwindling soybean supplies from the U.S. amid robust demand, a second Kuala Lumpur-based trader said, noting that the U.S. already has sold 70% of the projected exports for the 2012-13 marketing year that started Sept. 1.

"We believe crude palm oil prices are close to bottoming out and will regain upward trajectory once we are past the peak production in September and October," Macquarie Research said in a note Friday.

CPO is priced attractively relative to soyoil, trading at a $300/ton price discount compared with the historical average of $150/ton, which should shift demand, it said.

Deteriorating soy supplies in the U.S. at a time of rising Southeast Asian CPO supplies are keeping soyoil's premium at more than $300/ton to palm oil. The wide price gap limits further falls, Rabobank said in a note. "Tight supplies of soyoil will increasingly shift demand to palm oil in coming months."

Hopes of further stimulus measures in China are also rising, which is positive for CPO, a Singapore-based trader said, referring to a hint from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Tuesday that China is ready to inject massive stimulus into the economy.

Morgan Stanley forecast in a report this week that CPO prices could touch as high as $1,200/ton, or about MYR3,685/ton, by the second quarter of next year as demand from China and India is expected to rebound.
Unquote
To summarize, Big Caps may trade at Premium Market P/E's as they discount future events that are not apparent right now.

[quote="slstock"]

However my present worry is , while we still see lot of under valued shares to sector and market, these big boys running too far will inflate , ASI and then PE / BV too much and give the wrong picture to outsiders. Then the negative people and the worried will have reason to make things bad.


[quote="The Alchemist"][quote="slstock"]JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

slstock, you have a very good and valid point. I agree. Due to our market size (number of companies, market cap), Free Float of shares, disproportionately low number of companies constituting a very high percentage of the total Marketcap, the effect on the ASPI is distorted. Most Frontier markets have this problem and this is one of the reasons we are susceptible to such wide market swings and volatility.
In advanced Markets like The U.S. for example, different indexes capture different segments of the market. some of the indexes are explained as follows ( I got this info from an internet site) :

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of 30 "blue chip" stocks of U.S. "industrial" companies. The Index includes substantial industrial companies with a history of successful growth and wide investor interest. The Index includes a wide range of companies—from financial services companies, to computer companies, to retail companies—but does not include any transportation or utility companies, which are included in separate indices. The stocks included in the DJIA are not changed often. Unlike many other indices, the DJIA is not a "weighted" index (that is, the Index does not take market capitalization into account).

NYSE Composite Index

The NYSE Composite Index tracks the price movements of all common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The Index is "capitalization-weighted" (that is, each stock’s weight in the Index is proportionate to the stock’s market capitalization).

S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index

The S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks intended to be a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries within the U.S. economy. Stocks in the Index are chosen for market size (large-cap), liquidity, and industry group representation.

Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index

The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index measures the performance of all U.S. headquartered equity securities with readily available price data. The Index is a capitalization-weighted Index. The Index includes all of the stocks contained in the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index. The Index is intended to measure the entire U.S. stock market.

Russell 2000® Index

The Russell 2000® Index is a capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of a market consisting of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies (in terms of market capitalization) that are included in the Russell 3000® Index.

Nasdaq-100 Index

The Nasdaq-100 Index is a "modified capitalization-weighted" index designed to track the performance of a market consisting of the 100 largest and most actively traded non-financial domestic and international securities listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market, based on market capitalization. To be included in the Index, a stock must have a minimum average daily trading volume of 100,000 shares. Generally, companies on the Index also must have traded on Nasdaq, or been listed on another major exchange, for at least two years.

slstock wrote:JKH, CTC, CARG.CTHR, CARS, SLTL,BUKLI, NEST, CLC all trading premium to market already.

On the other side these shares are pushing PE, NAV of market high in addition .

Thats why I do not like to see these big boys moving..

Thanks to Opfdo for a very useful thread.

Special thanks to slstock and Alchemist for quality discussion> This is what we need in the forum...!

opfdo wrote:pls find the below snap shot to understand what are the top 20 list, which are more effecting to indexes.

Your images are in thumbnail view always. It would be better if you can post "Image" link directly.