COCO POTENTIAL!!!

ONTHEMONEY · 1 COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:38 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Dear Members,

Coco Lanka is an investment trust, which is exploring acquisitions focusing mainly on the agriculture, food and beverage sectors. The company’s subsidiaries are engaged in plantations, manufacturing & marketing
agricultural products.

For the 2QFY11 Coco Lanka posted LKR511mn revenue, which is a 52% YoY growth comparison to the 2QFY10. Revenue of the group consists of income sources from agribusiness which supply agri products to export market and local market. Further substantial amount of revenue derived from its investment & services business. For the 6 months ended 2QFY11 agribusiness contributed 83% for the total revenue while remaining 17% shouldered by the Investment & services business.

Bottom line of the group saw a steep 208% YoY growth registering LKR156mn against LKR66.5mn in last year. Such a growth in bottom line was mainly due to increase in return from investments which includes in other income & 51% YoY dip in finance cost and other overall savings. Its other income component that comprise of short term investment, edged by a mammoth 4178% (from LKR2.39mn to LKR102.2mn) as a result of it mark to market valuation of short term investments.

The counter trades at annualized earnings potential of 3.4X for 2011E and trailing PER of 5.3X with 1.3X PBV. This has more potential to grow considering the sector PER of 21.7X and PBV of 5.1X.

Performance Review

Year-------------------2008- ---- 2009--------2010
Profitability

Revenue Growth -------N/A--------115%-------90%
GP on Revenue--------15.70%-----23.70%---- -30.80%
EBIT on Revenue------- 4.80%------12.10%---16.80%
EBT on Revenue-------1.00%----- -10.10%----22.40%
NP margin on Revenue--0.80%-------5.90%-----17.90%

Efficiency

Trade & Receivable Days-31.01---- 36.41------ 51.33
Payable Days------------30.9----- 32.1------- 34.2
Inventory Days-------- -95.5-------56.7------ 78.9
Current Ratio-----------1.3-------- 2.5------- 8.5
Acid Test Ratio-------- -0.6--------1.5--------8.3
Interest Cover--------- -1.3--------5.5--------8.3
Cash Int.Cover---------1.29-------9.59-------10.49
Gearing(debt/equity)--- 0.24------- 0.13------- 0.02
Gearing(debt/debt+equity)0.19-----0.12------- 0.02

Investors Ratios

ROE------------- ------3%-------- 20%------- 24%
ROA-------------------1%-------- 9%---------14%
Asset Turn Over------- 121%------ 151%------ 78%

Valuation

Year---------------2010-----2011(E)

EPS----------------10.6------17.5
P/E--------------- -7.92------4.80
PBV--------------- 1.40-------1.30
Sector P/E --------21.90
Sector PBV---------5.20
Market PE-----------26
Market PBV---------3.20

Gud Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 2 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:39 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Can buy and sell at any time, for me I keep telling to myself an old story, the basics is, that you can always find a reason to give up, but you should be looking for the reasons not to.

Take a step back and take a good look at the market if can find better stocks or better timing to enter, thats your call.

Gud Luk

ONTHEMONEY · 3 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:56 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Many people blame on me that I stress on repeated topics.

Why not talk more on view points which have more potential in winning mega rallies,bull runs..

May be it will add value if you concentrate it for a short,medium or long period..

The awareness on technicality,background of directors,financials,news, rumors will begin to chase after once it is identified..all will try to find a reason to buy..They all fall in Love with the share..

Gud Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 4 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:03 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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There's no one right way for everybody. Your path to wealth is as individual as you are. There is an abundance of information at your fingertips: websites, books, financial magazines, e-zines, financial newsletters, motivational speeches on cassette or CD. Learn about the four fast tracks of wealth and decide which interests you most. Prepare, Pursue, and Prosper! If you're like most wealthy people, you'll probably make your money in at least two or more of these areas.

Rajitha · 5 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:05 pm

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COCO.X is trading at a huge discount when you consider its Net asset value if they revalue the RAL shares! Specially as there are not that many shares of COCO.X trading it should shoot up quite fast when a rally happens !
I told this about MAL.X when it was trading at a huge discount to the normal share and you can see where it is now! Anyway COCO both N and X have a bright future specially once the coconut prices stabilize in coming quarters!

ONTHEMONEY · 6 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:16 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Business outlook - Globally

Overall world economy food and comodity prices have boomed due to set backs in US economy.Plus the seasonal effect could give the food and poultry a good price.
This even applies and could be seen in recent rubber and COCOnut prices

This situation even favourable for #COCO, #RHL, #BFL and some plantation comapanies which has greater rubber exposure.

smallville · 7 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:23 pm

smallville

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Whats the portfolio value of their investments, have u considered that?

ShareShares · 8 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:34 pm

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I think allmost all shares can move up at current trend. All those seem to be good shares. unlikely for some shares to go down and others to go up. All can give some gains. Some of them can go up rapidly.

Antonym · 9 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:36 pm

Antonym

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1. Food and commodity prices are expected to trend upwards in the foreseeable future. We need to identify companies that will benefit from this trend.

2. Less than 2 months ago, Capital Alliance was recommending a BUY on COCO even at Rs 91.60.
http://www.capitalalliance.lk/weekly/other/downgradeofCoco1122011fnls.pdf
Now that it has declined to 84.20, COCO appears to be even more attractive than then...

kuk83 · 10 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 11:59 pm

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Key performance of F & B shares.

Net profit (SLRs.Mn) EPS(SLRs) PER
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 09/10 10/11 Last FY Current(forward)
BFL- 0.96 134.15 382.50(3Q) 8.38 23.91(3Q) 48.90 12.86
CARG- 499.45 712.39 852.22(3Q) 3.18 3.80(3Q) 71.79 45.01
CTC- 2760.71 4114.61 5,097.10(FY) 21.97 27.21(FY) 16.39 13.23
COCO.N - 83.80 229.76 244.95(3Q) 9.82 10.47(3Q) 8.15 5.73
COCO.X- 58.00 9.82 10.47(3Q) 5.91 4.16
COLD - 139.61 228.87 161.47(3Q) 10.60 7.48(3Q) 70.84 75.31
DIST- 4,100.76 2135.66 3,168.25(3Q) 7.12 10.56(3Q) 25.57 12.93
HVA- 14.82 54.27 27.07(2Q) 0.82 0.41(2Q) 25.21 25.28
LAMB- 71.33 65.51 44.52(3Q) 2.09 1.42 3Q 26.80 29.57
LMF - (44.07) 228.58 (27.62)(3Q) 5.71 (0.69) 3Q 21.00 (130.33)
LION - 88.81 640.50 699.63(3Q) 8.01 8.75(3Q) 25.23 17.32
KFP- (12.21) (146.33) 29.70(3Q) (17.22) 3.49(3Q) (8.71) 32.20
NEST- 1663.09 1580.32 1,890.67(4Q) 29.41 35.19(4Q) 22.10 18.47
RAL- 165.77 181.19 91.30(2Q) 0.45 0.23(2Q) 12.62 12.53
TAFL- (170.23) (191.86) 229.08(FY) (8.15) 9.73(FY) (21.78) 18.24

Compare and see the value of COCO.

ONTHEMONEY · 11 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:17 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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This is a company investing in agri businesses. Its subsidiaries enjoy very good tax holiday / Reduced tax rate status so that their profitability can be higher, with increase in turnover.

1. Renuka Agri foods Ltd. - Tax free
2. Renuka Teas (Ceylon)Ltd - On export of packet/bagged tea - Tax free
3. Campbell Teas (PVt) Ltd - On exports - Tax rate is 15%
4. Renuka Organics (Pvt) Ltd. - Income is tax free until 2011.
5. Kandy Plantations Ltd. - Tax free
6. Renuka Witsenburg Organics (Pvt) Ltd - The trading profit is exempt from tax until 2011.

The company is cash rich, sitting on a 514Mn cash balance to be invested in future potential businesses. As per their AR they seem to be prudent and conservative in selecting new businesses to buy.

Looking at earning potential, lowest PE ratio, liquid position and prudent management, I would say this share can surpass Rs.130/- in the medium term and for people who are looking at investment (not trading), this stock can bring rich returns in the medium to long term.

smallville · 12 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:26 pm

smallville

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Antonym wrote:1. Food and commodity prices are expected to trend upwards in the foreseeable future. We need to identify companies that will benefit from this trend.

2. Less than 2 months ago, Capital Alliance was recommending a BUY on COCO even at Rs 91.60.
http://www.capitalalliance.lk/weekly/other/downgradeofCoco1122011fnls.pdf
Now that it has declined to 84.20, COCO appears to be even more attractive than then...

I'm not saying COCO is not going up further or anything bad abt it.. but if you read this report carefully u'll see the following;

1) Initial buy recommendation was given on 26th of November 2009, when the share was trading at LKR 45.25 and the ASPI stood at 2,558.54 points.
2) The buy recon was upgraded to a Strong buy at a price of LKR 41.50 and the ASPI value was at
3,730.67 points on 23rd March 2010. Means this has come down..

3) Investors who have very high holding in Coco Lanka PLC appropriate to a Strong Buy
recommendation, at this price levels should cut their holding to a level of exposure
appropriate to a BUY recommendation

So they say its a buy.. but buy with cautions.. in other words, dont buy big amounts.. Investors who could mark up profits when the initial buy was given could reduce the holding by selling part of it..

Frankly COCO has appreciated more than 100% since their 2nd Strong buy signal.. So how abt doing a EPS & NAV based analysis to gear up Wink

Antonym & OntheMoney -> Thanks for the valuable insight provided.. + from me for both for this contribution.. pls do more study on this and update us if u guys have time..

Antonym · 13 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:22 am

Antonym

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@smallville: Thanks. The reason why I posted that downgrade report was to put matters in context, to indicate that COCO has moved up significantly... Actually, I bought at Rs 70 and sold at Rs 80 - end of story for me.

If portfolio value of investments is what interests you, there are a couple of other Renuka Group shares that look attractive...

smallville · 14 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:11 pm

smallville

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Antonym wrote:@smallville: Thanks. The reason why I posted that downgrade report was to put matters in context, to indicate that COCO has moved up significantly... Actually, I bought at Rs 70 and sold at Rs 80 - end of story for me.

If portfolio value of investments is what interests you, there are a couple of other Renuka Group shares that look attractive...

Well I'm eying on RENU these days and failed to collected more than 200 due to seller not coming low.. Just could not find a reason to go for COCO as of now but I see it has some potential too.. but some good study seems prudent if u wanna enter Wink

ONTHEMONEY · 15 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:42 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Dear members,

I did more study on captured counter and found the following.

We all will have a Macro angle in COCO Lanka Plc just because everyone has chipped in with valuable thoughts,comments and justification.

COCO @ NUTSHELL

Coco Lanka PLC is a Sri Lanka-based investment company for agricultural ventures. Until December 31, 2008, the Company was engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of agricultural products and with effect from 1st January 2009 the principle activity is investment in agricultural ventures. Some of the Company's subsidiaries include Renuka Agrifoods Ltd., Renuka Teas (Cey) Ltd., Renuka Organics (Pvt) Ltd. and kandy Plantations Ltd.

The company also cultivates, manufactures, and exports organic products, such as canned fruits, fruit relishes, fruit beverages, spic.Why Coco Lanka?

Coco Lanka Company is one counter which is highly under valued company listed in Colombo Stock Exchange as at 31/03/2011.

For the last FY(2010)Coco EPS stands at Rs 10.6 as at 31.03.2010 & the NAV stands at Rs 40.47 per share.

P.E is 7.83 for voting share & its low as 5.19 for Non Voting counter as at date. Coco Lanka is one of lowest lowest P.E. bearing listed company in Colombo Stock Exchange. Further if we consider the forwards Voting will indicate as 4.8 while Non Voting will be 3.14.

Last traded price of Coco was Rs 82 (V.W.A) as at 08/04/2011 & the trailing P.E is 7.73.Coco Lanka share has under valued to the ASI & MPI over the past 18 months period.

The company has Rs 500 m.n + cash with them being the proceeds from the recent rights issue. The aim of the company is to continue exploring acquisitions focusing mainly on the agriculture, food and beverage sectors.

Coco Lanka owns 221m.n. shares of Renuka Agri Foods PLC representing 55% of the total issued shares (obtained from quarter report as at 30.09.10)& is the largest share holder of Renuka Agri Foods PLC & the present value of this investment stands at Rs 1.259 Bn.( 221m.n shares * Rs 5.70 - RAL Last traded price)

Even if we take in to account the immediate two factors mentioned above, the Net Asset Value & the trading price of Coco Lanka should be well above the present reported figures.

In addition, it manufactures and exports Ceylon black, green, flavoured, and herbal tea in bulk, packets, tea bags, and specialty packaging. The company is based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Coco Lanka PLC is a subsidiary of Renuka Agro Exports Limited.

Subsidiaries of Coco Lanka

Renuka Agri Foods PLC
Renuka Organics (Pvt) Ltd
Renuka Teas (Ceylon) (Pvt) Ltd
Kandy Plantations Ltd
Renuka Witsenburg Organics(Pvt) Ltd
Campbell Teas (Pvt) Ltd
Renuka Trading (Pvt) Ltd
Ceylon Forestry (Pvt) Ltd
Ceylon Botanicals (Pvt) Ltd

Gud Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 16 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 7:13 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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We saw a great analysis on PE ratios in CSE today by one of the member.

Looking at the Bev,food & Tobacco Sector;

Majority of the stocks in this sector are overvalued with high average earnings. The exception to the rule seems to be BFL and COCO considering the potential growth in business where they operate, cash richness, company capabilities,etc..

Despite a short term revival of some stocks within this industry #BFL still remains as the front-runner in terms of future value. This is followed by COCO. Based on the above calculations BFL and COCO has a potential growth opportunity of 31% and 65% respectively. PE ratios for both stocks are well below the industry average highlighting their potential.

Both stocks can be recommended for medium to long term investment and for the savvy day trader the within day price fluctuation of BFL could be very lucrative with the right technical analysis.

Gud Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 17 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Tue Apr 12, 2011 11:56 am

ONTHEMONEY

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In the Operations review(S.L.S Picks)

Future direction, Executive Director Shamindra Rajiyah mentioned that the investment trust industry in Sri Lanka is still in its infancy compared to other emerging markets in terms of the equity and debt instruments offered. However he mentioned that the post war era, with the regulators keen to see Sri Lanka become a South Asian financial hub steps are being taken to attract new listings and broaden the investment instruments available. In addition new opportunities are arising for investment in green field projects especially in agriculture. Prior to listing at a future date. He further stated that the company is well positioned to be part of this process and are optimistic on delivering above average returns to its investors.

Gud Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 18 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:08 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Liquidity management & working Cap :-

company seems to be a cash rich company from the inception.

600 mn raised from the rights issue is bieng utilised for investment in business and other activies. So we could expect an expansion in future.
Opertaing Cash flow has reduced due expanding business activities on debtors and creditors.
Gearing at its low. (0.02%)

Looks like they have invested a substantial amount out of 600 mn to earn 14 mn interes income even at this low bank rates.

We could not expect this to continue in future.

Gud Luck

ONTHEMONEY · 19 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Mon Apr 18, 2011 10:58 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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COCO value based on RAFL

Number of shares owned by Coco in RAFL-------- 221,000,000- shares
Share capital of Coco lanka -------------------- 21,600,000- shares
Issued price of RAFL ( T/Price) ----------------- Rs 5.70
Additional value created for Coco -------------- 221,000,000 * Rs 5.70

= Rs 1,259,700,000 / 21,600,000 (shares) ------ Rs 58.31(COCO accounts for Rs 58.31 per share)

The value of Coco Lanka shares may vary according to the trading price of RAFL in future. This is one reason to increase the share prices of the Ceylon Guardian (GUAR), Ceylon investment (CINV) etc, recently since these two companies have considerable stakes in most valued (Blue chips) companies listed in the Colombo stock market. This has already happened in Browns where its share price increases rapidly due to their large stake in Sri Lanka's largest private commercial bank HNB. Further share price of DFCC has a direct link to the COMB( N) trading price since DFCC has a considerable stake in COMB (N) etc.

Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 5.70 /share = ( 221,000,000 * Rs 5.70) /21,600,000
= Rs 58.31 / share
Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 5.80 /share = Rs 59.34 / share
Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 5.90 /share = Rs 60.36 / share
Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 6.00 /share = Rs 61.38 / share
Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 6.10 /share = Rs 62.41 / share
Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 6.50 /share = Rs 66.50 / share
Additional value for Coco if RAFL trade @ Rs 7.00 /share = Rs 71.62 / share

These values for Coco Lanka arrived at, are purely considering the future trading price of RAFL. Further Coco Lanka has its own business interests in the field of coconut based products, organic products, manufactures & exports ceylon tea etc. From these business interests and investment trust Coco has reported E.P.S. of Rs 10.6 & NAV per share of Rs 40.47 as at 31/03/10. Since Coco lanka is in the field of Agricultural related business activities we can expect continuous improvements in their bottom line in future.

There for we believe that RAFL performance in future will directly has a relationship in the future share price of COCO LANKA.

How ever investors reacted negatively for the announced rights issue by Coco lanka. Main reason for this may be many of them expect a subdivision from the company. If we looked at the recent past investors who subscribe for rights issues were winners in all corners. ( CHL, LDEV,MARA,RHL,LION,)etc.

Gud Luck

Last edited by ONTHEMONEY on Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:45 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : format)

ONTHEMONEY · 20 COCO LANKA PLC-MIRACLES CAN HAPPEN AFTER RESULTS!!! Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:43 pm

ONTHEMONEY

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Coco Lanka PLC, through its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, manufacture, and marketing of agriculture products in Sri Lanka.

The company produces products for erosion control, horticultural, and industrial sectors. Its erosion control products include control blankets, geotextiles, and waterlogs; horticultural products comprise coir peat, husk chips, grow bags, cut fiber, coir pots, coco disk/coir disk, and weed control; and industrial products consist of mattress fiber, double cleaned long fibers, machine twisted fiber, and coir twine. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Coco Lanka PLC is a subsidiary of Renuka Agro Exports (Pvt) Ltd.

Future Direction

The company’s principal activity was re classified as investment company for Agricultural ventures, hence the company is keen on acquisitions focusing mainly on the agriculture, food and beverage sectors. Even though COCO is functioning as an Investment Trust at present, according to the present classification of CSE it comes under the sub sector Beverage Food and Tobacco.

Brief Valuation

NP 9 months cumulative period 189.2
NP Comparative 9 months cumulative period (2009) 84.8
NP Comparative 9 months cumulative period YoY 123.1%

EPS Last quarter 6.7

EPS (AVG of last 2 quarters) : 8.1/2 X 4 = 16.2
sector PE 23, if we discounted to @ 10

price can be 16.2 X 10 = 162/-

Gud Luck

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COCO POTENTIAL!!!

1 COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:38 pm

ONTHEMONEY

2 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:39 pm

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3 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:56 pm

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4 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:03 pm

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5 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:05 pm

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6 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:16 pm

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7 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:23 pm

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8 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:34 pm

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9 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:36 pm

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10 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Thu Apr 07, 2011 11:59 pm

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11 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:17 pm

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12 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:26 pm

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13 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 12:22 am

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14 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:11 pm

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15 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Sun Apr 10, 2011 1:42 pm

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18 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:08 pm

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19 Re: COCO POTENTIAL!!! Mon Apr 18, 2011 10:58 pm

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20 COCO LANKA PLC-MIRACLES CAN HAPPEN AFTER RESULTS!!! Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:43 pm

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