Bulls and bears remain divided on the question of whether we are seeing a brief hiatus from a longer- term decline or the early stages of a new era of prosperity.
This week's retail sales reports and stockmarket action will help investors ascertain which camp is closer to the truth.
If this is a bull run in the midst of a bear market, stocks should fall back quickly from their old peak. If US consumers are feeling flush again, their shopping should have continued despite an increase in the tax rate.