PAP will take over by Hemas Power

HP WILL TAKE OVER PAP BY NEXT WEEK AT PRICE AROUND RS 3 AND 3.5.I HEARD THAT AGREEMENT HAS ALREADY SIGN . HEMAS WILL BUY AROUND 30% OF PAP AS FIRST STEP.

Are you sure....?WOW good news

Will there be a mandatory offer?

I DONT THINK AT FIRST STAGE THEY WILL TAKE 29.5% AT FIRST STAGE HOWEVER SHARE CAN BE MOVE DONT PANIC WAIT FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT BY MONDAY

If it true Stockboy will GOODBOY....

I know it was for sale unofficially. but i dont know about Hemas.........The IPO was managed by kenanga investments..........They know the story........

stockboy wrote: I DONT THINK AT FIRST STAGE THEY WILL TAKE 29.5% AT FIRST STAGE HOWEVER SHARE CAN BE MOVE DONT PANIC WAIT FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT BY MONDAY

http://en-rules.sfc.hk/en/display/display.html?rbid=3527&element_id=1711

If the TO is true and that an announcement will be made it seems 3.30 was the highest price during the last 12 months.

So people would want to push it to 3.5 plus right ? because there are others who have bought at higher price before 1 year.

Can any 1 shed some light on this ?

TAH

5. U.K. Style Takeover Rules – Mandatory
Bid – Tender Offer (The City Code)
• Rule 1 Mandatory Bid: Trigger: dominant shareholder
has already reached dominant position:
a) by buying gradually in the market or
b) by buying a dominant stake in a private deal
he must make an offer (bid) to all shareholders at the
highest price he has paid during the last year (not lower
than 6 months average)
Result: the mandatory bid treats all shareholders equal
to the highest price-seller (equal to the old dominant
shareholder)

haha smallville going to win

I am sure smallv is calculating the target prices ....

Stockboy,
Thanks for the news but please do not type everything in CAPS to go by forum rules.

stockboy wrote: I DONT THINK AT FIRST STAGE THEY WILL TAKE 29.5% AT FIRST STAGE HOWEVER SHARE CAN BE MOVE DONT PANIC WAIT FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT BY MONDAY

stockboy wrote: HP WILL TAKE OVER PAP BY NEXT WEEK AT PRICE AROUND RS 3 AND 3.5.I HEARD THAT AGREEMENT HAS ALREADY SIGN . HEMAS WILL BUY AROUND 30% OF PAP AS FIRST STEP.

I don't think it will be at the above price. If it does occur I will not be surprised as the talks have been on for a long time.

However note that PAP was an extreme disappointment as the top shareholders and directors sold a lot at 8-9/=. Even Emagewise bought at 6/= and sold at 8-9/=.
Even the respected Deepal Sooriyaratchi sold his block at 8/=. Now the Berhad owns 23% with retailers owning 70+% of the stock. If a mandatory occurs, I doubt it will achieve anything given the holding loss of the current 70%.

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Closer look at Power:

I know most of you are big time speculators but I will tell you why this will occur at some point in time. You see SL has about 250 small power producers. The CEB brought out an agreement on Small Power Producers that makes the below 10MW ones run at losses. The above 10 MW can negotiate the terms of the contract.

PAP has the agreement till 2023 and hence you can't expect too much in the projections.

http://www.pucsl.gov.lk/english/wp-content/themes/pucsl/pdfs/Licensee-List.pdf



See the attachment above to see the entire list. Consolidation has to occur.

rainmaker wrote:

stockboy wrote: HP WILL TAKE OVER PAP BY NEXT WEEK AT PRICE AROUND RS 3 AND 3.5.I HEARD THAT AGREEMENT HAS ALREADY SIGN . HEMAS WILL BUY AROUND 30% OF PAP AS FIRST STEP.

I don't think it will be at the above price. If it does occur I will not be surprised as the talks have been on for a long time.

However note that PAP was an extreme disappointment as the top shareholders and directors sold a lot at 8-9/=. Even Emagewise bought at 6/= and sold at 8-9/=.
Even the respected Deepal Sooriyaratchi sold his block at 8/=. Now the Berhad owns 23% with retailers owning 70+% of the stock. If a mandatory occurs, I doubt it will achieve anything given the holding loss of the current 70%.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Closer look at Power:

I know most of you are big time speculators but I will tell you why this will occur at some point in time. You see SL has about 250 small power producers. The CEB brought out an agreement on Small Power Producers that makes the below 10MW ones run at losses. The above 10 MW can negotiate the terms of the contract.

PAP has the agreement till 2023 and hence you can't expect too much in the projections.

http://www.pucsl.gov.lk/english/wp-content/themes/pucsl/pdfs/Licensee-List.pdf



See the attachment above to see the entire list. Consolidation has to occur.

Yes Hemas is looking for the companies, but i don't think they will buy a company, unless they are certain they can take the control the management

I will also add that PAP has 10MW capacity (though it does not operate at this). 10MW is 10,000 KWH which someone can compute.

However the gain is not on the electricity you sell but the capital cost rebate that the CEB will give you. There is a detailed document for those who want to see it.

http://www.pucsl.gov.lk/english/uncategorized/sample-event/

rainmaker wrote:

stockboy wrote: .

.......................
. You see SL has about 250 small power producers. The CEB brought out an agreement on Small Power Producers that makes the below 10MW ones run at losses.
............................

Would you please clarify the above statement ?
On what basis, did you arrive at that conclusion ..."run at losses " ?

Gaja wrote:

rainmaker wrote:

stockboy wrote: HP WILL TAKE OVER PAP BY NEXT WEEK AT PRICE AROUND RS 3 AND 3.5.I HEARD THAT AGREEMENT HAS ALREADY SIGN . HEMAS WILL BUY AROUND 30% OF PAP AS FIRST STEP.

I don't think it will be at the above price. If it does occur I will not be surprised as the talks have been on for a long time.

However note that PAP was an extreme disappointment as the top shareholders and directors sold a lot at 8-9/=. Even Emagewise bought at 6/= and sold at 8-9/=.
Even the respected Deepal Sooriyaratchi sold his block at 8/=. Now the Berhad owns 23% with retailers owning 70+% of the stock. If a mandatory occurs, I doubt it will achieve anything given the holding loss of the current 70%.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Closer look at Power:

I know most of you are big time speculators but I will tell you why this will occur at some point in time. You see SL has about 250 small power producers. The CEB brought out an agreement on Small Power Producers that makes the below 10MW ones run at losses. The above 10 MW can negotiate the terms of the contract.

PAP has the agreement till 2023 and hence you can't expect too much in the projections.

http://www.pucsl.gov.lk/english/wp-content/themes/pucsl/pdfs/Licensee-List.pdf



See the attachment above to see the entire list. Consolidation has to occur.

Yes Hemas is looking for the companies, but i don't think they will buy a company, unless they are certain they can take the control the management

I can't totally agree with this. PAP is a serious power producer. The Senok and the other ones are affiliated to some PEPs with connections to the top. They won't sell out.

The mistake the CEB was the national grid concept that meant that Country load must be taken on by everyone. What is better is regional load coming from regional power producers (like Jaffna during the wartime). The current system results in wastage as power from Moneragala is nothing when it comes to Colombo ---> power is lost in transmission

knockknobbler wrote:

rainmaker wrote:

stockboy wrote: .

.......................
. You see SL has about 250 small power producers. The CEB brought out an agreement on Small Power Producers that makes the below 10MW ones run at losses.
............................

Would you please clarify the above statement ?
On what basis, did you arrive at that conclusion ..."run at losses " ?

See my other post about the revised tarrif in Nov 2012. Anyway I think PUCSL wants to reduce the rebates given for capital costs.

This is because a few people just put pathetic turbines across a small catchment to produce electricity. They got nothing much by selling 1 MW but they got massive capital cost rebates by quoting ridiculous figures for building them............

Have you noticed that the PAP stated capital (capital raised from the IPO + initial capital) is very close to the capital raised from the IPO -> initial capital outlay to set up PAP was not as high

keeper wrote:If it true Stockboy will GOODBOY....

If it is not true, then how would you call him ?

I AM SURE THAT MANDATORY OFFER WILL NOT TRIGGER AT THIS STAGE . HP WILL BUY LESS THAN 29.5% .

will softlogic buy?

There is a rumour abt this . Hemas power having a interest about Pap. bt dont know the when its going to happen and a M.O. Bt this info really useful.

soft-logic is not a major shareholder but ashok pathirage has 24.5 m shares which is 5% of the company Malaysian party will not sell its 23% stake they will sell part of that. wait for announcement by next week

rainmaker wrote:

knockknobbler wrote:

rainmaker wrote:

stockboy wrote: .

.......................
. You see SL has about 250 small power producers. The CEB brought out an agreement on Small Power Producers that makes the below 10MW ones run at losses.
............................

Would you please clarify the above statement ?
On what basis, did you arrive at that conclusion ..."run at losses " ?

See my other post about the revised tarrif in Nov 2012. Anyway I think PUCSL wants to reduce the rebates given for capital costs.

Searched, couldn't find a post in Nov 2012. (Probably that may be under a different name)
Any way, first time I heard , a rebate is given to power producers by PUCSL based on capital cost. Are you sure?
According to my knowledge ( gathered about 5 years back),
1. the payment to power producer is based on the amount of power produced and supplied ( RS....per GWhr or MWhr) on monthly basis. Not on any other criteria.
2. PUCSL has nothing to do here. Power Purchase Agreement is between Producer and CEB.

This is because a few people just put pathetic turbines across a small catchment to produce electricity. They got nothing much by selling 1 MW but they got massive capital cost rebates by quoting ridiculous figures for building them............
I am somewhat skeptical about above reasoning also. the first thing in setting up of a power plant is a technical study , usually by an Electrical /Mechanical engineer. I can't think about an Engineer, recommending a over capacity turbine. Besides this technical study is reviewed by CEB (again Engineers ) and funding Banks (usually by an Engineer, Engineering Consultant).
Capital cost is also reviewed by the Bank . If CEB gives a rebate based on Capital cost, they would surely review the reasonability of capital cost. There can't be deliberate overestimates.
Capital cost in setting up, run of the river hydropower plant, is more or less standard. Those involved know turbine prices of the suppliers ( ostly of German ,Uk, Chinese origin). Can be verified ,compared easily. Construction cost may vary , max 10% depending of the difficulty of terrain. There is a priced BOQ, any one can assess cost computations. No producer can fool the parties involved (banks, CEB), as you suggest.

Have you noticed that the PAP stated capital (capital raised from the IPO + initial capital) is very close to the capital raised from the IPO -> initial capital outlay to set up PAP was not as high ;
I can't understand the relationship of this fact( even it is true), to the subject under discussion.

There is some maths involved in the tarriff calculation. Not all power producers get the same amount per mega watts.

The PUCSL (Public Utilities Commission of SL) is the boss not the CEB. The CEB also has a license to supply electricity (check the licensee list)

Anyway the document which relates the mini-hydro, wind, dendro etc tarriff calculation is here. The tarriff computation takes into account debt/equity, cashflows, return on equity, overheads and maintenance cost etc.

http://www.pucsl.gov.lk/english/wp-content/themes/pucsl/pdfs/NCRETariffs2012-2013_ConsultationDocument.pdf

The tarriff document this time around states that it applies for 20 years so you can get stuffed if you don't get it right the first time.