Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy

Jana · 1 Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 7:45 am

Jana

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2640
Equity Stars : 10713
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2011-03-10

IF you have MAL then Don't sell it at the market or even to repurchase. After repurchase date MAL make you more than 25% (may be 50% or 100% not sure) profit .

Simple logic Without any benefit why they want to buy @ 5/= (MAL.N) So MAL.N is good to buy @ 5/= level.. after 16 of July it will pass easily 6/= or 7/=... even if it is pass 6/= you can enjoy with 20% profit .

and some one collecting MAL.N @ 5.00 using this announcement So after that MAL automatically pass 6/= or 7/=

Same theory applied to CINV in 2009. They repurchase @189/= (09/11/2009) after that its went up to 340.00 on 03-05-10

So "Ladies and Gentlemen Don't Sell your MAL.N or X.. may be you can make double after that date. IF you can buy ...

anyhow no body want to sell MAL.X to 3.50 . So automatically it will follow with N so we can confirm our profit with MAL.N and X

Note: This is my opinion only. may be it may not happen so very carefully study well about stock, before you take any decision

Last edited by Jana on Sun May 19, 2013 8:49 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : I want to make some note)

Slstock · 2 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 8:20 am

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Equity Stars : 13379
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Jana be careful about giving Buy or sell recommendations.

Okay to state you opinion/facts but don;t make direct buy/sell recommendations. You predictions maybe happen but if not?

Comparing 2009/2010 time to now maye not be good . 2009/2010 there was a real raging bull.

Jana · 3 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 8:47 am

Jana

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2640
Equity Stars : 10713
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2011-03-10

slstock wrote:Jana be careful about giving Buy or sell recommendations.

Okay to state you opinion/facts but don;t make direct buy/sell recommendations. You predictions maybe happen but if not?

Comparing 2009/2010 time to now maye not be good . 2009/2010 there was a real raging bull.

Thanks Slstock! to point out.

I feeling it will happen 99% true. thats why I made like this post .. I will add some note . thanks

micky · 4 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 9:05 am

micky

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 230
Equity Stars : 5138
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2011-02-04

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28097-morin0000-morisons#164651

Jana the predictor Very Happy

but i like ur facts regarding MAL.N , but we glad if u could state both pros and cons.

Jana · 5 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 9:24 am

Jana

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2640
Equity Stars : 10713
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2011-03-10

micky wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28097-morin0000-morisons#164651

Jana the predictor

but i like ur facts regarding MAL.N , but we glad if u could state both pros and cons.

thanks . just we are trading here for profit ..not become a director for the company or run the company ..So If the MAL go up then we can make the profit if we buy. MAL doesn't want to go down than 5/= level apart from the market crash so .. we can try without any loss...

The Alchemist · 6 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 9:33 am

The Alchemist

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 590
Equity Stars : 5175
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2012-04-08

Jana wrote:IF you have MAL then Don't sell it at the market or even to repurchase. After repurchase date MAL make you more than 25% (may be 50% or 100% not sure) profit .

Simple logic Without any benefit why they want to buy @ 5/= (MAL.N) So MAL.N is good to buy @ 5/= level.. after 16 of July it will pass easily 6/= or 7/=... even if it is pass 6/= you can enjoy with 20% profit .

and some one collecting MAL.N @ 5.00 using this announcement So after that MAL automatically pass 6/= or 7/=

Same theory applied to CINV in 2009. They repurchase @189/= (09/11/2009) after that its went up to 340.00 on 03-05-10

So "Ladies and Gentlemen Don't Sell your MAL.N or X.. may be you can make double after that date. IF you can buy ...

anyhow no body want to sell MAL.X to 3.50 . So automatically it will follow with N so we can confirm our profit with MAL.N and X

Note: This is my opinion only. may be it may not happen so very carefully study well about stock, before you take any decision

Whether MAL goes up before or after repurchase will depend on market conditions. you cannot compare with CINV as repurchase of CINV was at NAV and it went up after repurchase because its share portfolio NAV went up during bull run of 2010 / 2011.
The current MAL repurchase price is ridiculous as it is way below its NAV of approx Rs 9 per share,the Voting share was already trading at 4.50- 4.60 in a bullish market (with plantation rally yet to get underway) and the X repurchase price is 3.50, Rs 1 below current price.

This repurchase will be a non-event for minority shareholders as not attractive to subscribe. why would anyone want to subscribe to the repurchase now when the market price is above the repurchase price ! it will only benefit the controlling shareholder of mainly X shares to subscribe his quota at even 3.50, which he was trying to do for long time.

The fact that NAV and EPS will go up after the repurchase is correct but pointless as even now, share is trading at such a low p/e and nearly 0.55 price to book value.

If they really wanted to reward shareholders, create value and distribute the Rs 175 Million, they could have given a Rs 0.70 Dividend per share or done a repurchase of approx 1 for 10 at close to NAV maybe Rs 8.

They should get 100 out of 100 for bungling things up with a long history of doing so. remember the non voting issued at Rs 10 when voting share at 100, the rights and then cancellation, the maldivian hotel drama and now the repurchase price fiasco.

Slstock · 7 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 11:28 am

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Equity Stars : 13379
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Cons:

Have you noticed the drop in profits this quarter? Do you think they can do better next 2 quarters due to wage issues.

If there is a overall plantation run or manipulation MAL can run. But I am not keeping any speical hope up.

Jana wrote:

micky wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28097-morin0000-morisons#164651

Jana the predictor

but i like ur facts regarding MAL.N , but we glad if u could state both pros and cons.

thanks . just we are trading here for profit ..not become a director for the company or run the company ..So If the MAL go up then we can make the profit if we buy. MAL doesn't want to go down than 5/= level apart from the market crash so .. we can try without any loss...

stockback · 8 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 3:59 pm

stockback

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2945
Equity Stars : 8969
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2012-02-19

MAL.N0000
offer price is 5, target price is X
7 share -----> 6 Share
share compress ratio is= 7/6

with Offer
X=5*7/6=5.83

this calculations with this repurchase offer.

Net Assets
Target Net assets is Y
now Net Asset is 8.68
Y=8.68*7/6
Y=10.12

P/E
Target P/E is Z
Z=1.29*7/6=1.505
with current P/E ratio.

I think Mal will pushed to good position.
Logically
1. Why company do like this? company staying strong position
2. if they announce more collection announcement with higher price range( to avoid practical issues)
practically company cannot buy 32M share at this price level.
3. Tea price getting better positions
4. crude oil price getting high value if its can continue rubber price also going to peak.
5. other factors. interest rate, we are in bull market. plantation sector profit growing 375% for last year
6. We are in CSE. we can expect Rocket Rally's.

Please get decision after fully studying. I am not recommend to you, Buy,Sale,Hold

Gainer · 9 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 5:18 pm

Gainer

Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 3451
Equity Stars : 10952
Reputation : 264
Join date : 2011-03-13

MAL repurchase offer is good news for future out look very strong position.

besthope · 10 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 6:15 pm

besthope

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 100
Equity Stars : 5588
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2012-02-20

Our Gainer has nothing to lose and is all bravado
A promoter at heart, a real desperado
Shamelessly promoting SLTL and now MAL
Not what you would call a real Pal

Gainer · 11 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 6:25 pm

Gainer

Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 3451
Equity Stars : 10952
Reputation : 264
Join date : 2011-03-13

besthope wrote:Our Gainer has nothing to lose and is all bravado
A promoter at heart, a real desperado
Shamelessly promoting SLTL and now MAL
Not what you would call a real Pal

My dear this not promotion just giving information.

Slstock · 12 Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 10:09 pm

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Equity Stars : 13379
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Gainer,

I would be very careful what you say. What is the info you are giving?

hope this is not it?
"MAL repurchase offer is good news for future out look very strong position."

Gainer wrote:

besthope wrote:Our Gainer has nothing to lose and is all bravado
A promoter at heart, a real desperado
Shamelessly promoting SLTL and now MAL
Not what you would call a real Pal

My dear this not promotion just giving information.