LIOC up LGL down

salt · 1 LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 12:12 pm

salt

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LIOC up
with lots of unclarity and division with GOSL
GOSL is under tremendous pressure in this segment
still market loves this risks

LGL down
NO issue of market direction, its all pass through with formula
prices are down in international market
good hand to hand with Litro , GOSL competitive with relatively better terms than LIOC

lulu · 2 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 12:31 pm

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IOC has come to an understanding with GOSL to operate the tank farm in trinco - pls chk nation

salt · 3 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 12:48 pm

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LIOC already using the tank farm , now GOSl is going to take part of that
is that a reason to buy?
well, that's market behave

Bond · 4 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 1:02 pm

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salt wrote:LIOC already using the tank farm , now GOSl is going to take part of that
is that a reason to buy?
well, that's market behave

Salt, do you really want to know?

Anyway I doubt they will do business via LIOC. It will be via IOC since that is how Indians are Razz

The Alchemist · 5 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 1:09 pm

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@ salt - as at 31st dec, LIOC EPS 3.95, NAV 23, and Laughs EPS 1.70 and NAV 17.
Both market price (voting) between 28-29. What is the March 31st EPS you are expecting for both ?

salt · 6 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:18 pm

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@The Alchemist,

my projection for LGL, the best quarter in the year LKR 300 mn, LKR 0.75
it makes EPS of LKR 2.25. Actual could be even higher

LIOC, nobody can predict.if the election is announce, then they will cut the prices of fuel and LIOC will stop selling
moreover, they will loose advantage of sole use of the tank farm , means their costs will go up
if price formula comes, it will be buy call or if PBJ goes, its a buy call

seek · 7 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:32 pm

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Does LGL directly import GAS from world market or buy from CPC?

salt · 8 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:37 pm

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local production 1/2 shares by two distributors ( Litro & LGL)
rest (bulk) is imported

reference price
http://cms.wc.raa.net/images/documents/document_4200.pdf

The Alchemist · 9 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:43 pm

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@salt - So however much LIOC makes in past March and current June quarter, it does not matter as you think the risks you mention outweigh the whatever attractive earnings they may report. is that your thinking ? can we expect dividends from LIOC and LGL and how much do you think ? The reason i'm asking is i have LIOC and wondering what to do.

seek · 10 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:57 pm

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Last year 85% of total gas volume was directly imported and the rest was bought from CPC. Why can’t they import 100%? Is buying from CPC cost effective?

Now supugaskanda refinery is in danger. Can they buy from CPC further?
Can they keep same margin further?

This is how the chairman explained the situation in 2011 Annual Report.

“Although our performance was creditable, it was achieved with many obstacles. The reduction of the supply of LP Gas output from the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) refinery to LAUGFS from 100% to 50% is worth mentioning in this review, since it has a significant impact to the pricing of the domestic cylinder of your Company.”

seek · 11 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 3:33 pm

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ගෑස් නගිනකොට රටේම යුද පිටිය

ඒත් එක්ක උඩ යනවා ප්ලේන් ටිය

ඒත් අනේ හිසරදයක් සිටි හැටිය

chicken නැතුව බත් කනවා වෙග පිටිය

Bond · 12 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 3:51 pm

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The Alchemist wrote:@salt - So however much LIOC makes in past March and current June quarter, it does not matter as you think the risks you mention outweigh the whatever attractive earnings they may report. is that your thinking ? can we expect dividends from LIOC and LGL and how much do you think ? The reason i'm asking is i have LIOC and wondering what to do.

Sorry to see you bought LIOC and wondering what to do.
I thought you would have seen how cheap BREW and LION was. BREW still has some upside potential. Also your an Alchemist so you should BREW something

Anyway for those who don't realise, IOC has got a supply contract for Iranian Crude.
That is they can supply Iranian Crude without Ceypetco worrying about insurance, letter of credit etc

Obviously LIOC will not gain anything as this is with IOC.
Nothing do with LIOC. The Indian Oil Corporation is listed on sensex.

Also this will make India's control very very strong

seek · 13 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 3:59 pm

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LIOC was at damn cheap when it was trading at 18. For me, now it is bit risky. Due to all these external risk factors LIOC and LGL should be trading at low P/E like motor sector and plantations.

salt · 14 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 4:17 pm

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@rainmaker/bond
thanks for valuable information
i wonder those US exception were mean for trading, i guess this will be a controversial thing for sure
=========================
LGL _ since local made LPG is bought at cheaper price. But, the formula is based on international reference price which is higher ( also it includes fright as well)

Well, on dividends, LIOC will possibly pay all its earning as dividends since their are no major capex

Bond · 15 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 4:28 pm

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http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/126458/Iran_Courts_Indian_Companies_with_More_Alluring_Oil_Contracts

India is a lot smarter than we think. Razz

The refinery has to be shut down soon and they can give us the Iranian crude in a day.

Again this is not LIOC - this is IOC the parent of LIOC.

seek · 16 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 4:52 pm

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As a habit, I never pump petrel from a LIOC station and always go to a CEPETCO station. If you are getting same oil, why do you give money to these bloody Indians?

salt · 17 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 6:00 pm

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http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/729_1369046059270.03.2013.pdf

4Q EPS 1.50
very good

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LIOC up LGL down

1 LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 12:12 pm

salt

2 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 12:31 pm

lulu

3 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 12:48 pm

salt

4 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 1:02 pm

Bond

5 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 1:09 pm

The Alchemist

6 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:18 pm

salt

7 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:32 pm

seek

8 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:37 pm

salt

9 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:43 pm

The Alchemist

10 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 2:57 pm

seek

11 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 3:33 pm

seek

12 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 3:51 pm

Bond

13 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 3:59 pm

seek

14 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 4:17 pm

salt

15 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 4:28 pm

Bond

16 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 4:52 pm

seek

17 Re: LIOC up LGL down Mon May 20, 2013 6:00 pm

salt

18 Re: LIOC up LGL down

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