My Best share list !!

I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

Thanks much for the share presentation. A rarity these days.Think you presented something like this before in the forum?

What method did you use to arrive at potential Value?


Reg plantation :

Though present earnings look promising, I would wait for another 3 months atleast to figure out the wage issue effect and whether the Tea earnings will hold. MASK, MADU, TPL is heavily dependant on Tea and going by the past they might be effected for 1 or 2 quarters.


Though MADU has high NAV due to timber valautions , their earnings are not consistent and seems to be having some trouble according to a report I saw.

hunter wrote:I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

For me Just 25% looks good. Not a prudent type of investment... Plantation no mega run for next six months. Finance like CDB exposed high lease and profit get erode, motor looks bleak...

Thanks for the comments. I also agree this may not be the ideal time to jump in to some of the counters esp. plantations.

Slstock, following is the clarification of my value calculation (You may call this is 'conservative' to some extent).

Value = Average of (EPS value, NAV per share)

Where as;

EPS value = 10 times of average EPS during last two years.

Thanks.

Can you check for the below.

ALLI nav is 872 vs 826
LWL is 84.57 vs 106

hunter wrote:Thanks for the comments. I also agree this may not be the ideal time to jump in to some of the counters esp. plantations.

Slstock, following is the clarification of my value calculation (You may call this is 'conservative' to some extent).

Value = Average of (EPS value, NAV per share)

Where as;

EPS value = 10 times of average EPS during last two years.

Thanks, Hunter. You have opened a healthy discussion. I appreciate your sharing such info.

Thanks hunter. i can remember your post,http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23115-these-shares-are-still-at-a-bargain

Slstock,

Thanks for checking the figures
You are correct on LWL. There has been an error in my spread sheet.
ALLI NAV is correct 826.6 according to my report (Unaudited report); You got a different version?




@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

Check ALLI audited report.

hunter wrote:Slstock,

Thanks for checking the figures
You are correct on LWL. There has been an error in my spread sheet.
ALLI NAV is correct 826.6 according to my report (Unaudited report); You got a different version?




@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

hunter wrote:I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

out of these shares I am bulish on
UML
VFIN
inaddition LWL and CTLD also good for long term. I avoid plantation stocks

hunter wrote:
@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

Dear hunter appreciate your hard work.
the earlier post was not drag to discourege you just to show that CSE is UNPREDICTABLE FOR SHORT TERM.

Some of your valuations does make sense to me when I look at it in longer term perspective .

Some smart ass all knowing Pandithayas with only few year experience ( mostly seen the fall of the market than the bull) might critize your long term targets. They will preach and show their few trading successes and critize the long term investment potential as the only success they seen is in trading.

We know how the Big Bull is when he takes over. For example one can study how LWL, CDB, GUAR ran in 2011 when the time was right.

Peoples mind needs to be full of confidence before a true bull comes. Right now most people are still on their toes figuring out when to sell as they got burnt in the past. But is getting gradually better. So time for value investing ( like you mention) will realize in due course only.

Don;t get discouraged if short term your targets didn;t realize . You took time to analyze present share names. Smart investors in the forum will take notice.

pathfinder wrote:

hunter wrote:
@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

Dear hunter appreciate your hard work.
the earlier post was not drag to discourege you just to show that CSE is UNPREDICTABLE FOR SHORT TERM.

@ hunter,

sometime back you was a student, immediately you became a teacher,
now you are predictor my congratulation to you. for your quick success
good luck. 

Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.

Pathfinder ,

?????

Sheesh. I did not mean you. So don' t go there .   I  know you are balanced in your approach.  

Have you not seen me reasonable and temperate 98% of the times?


However If you look carefully you will find such pandithaya  example  in the forum right now and  since you been around you will know the  history  of such people and  how they play with new comer minds.
They can easily come here and say Hunters predictions and post is crap and he is promoting his portfolio when actually he has doing some real analysis to share with the forum ( which those people do not do) . That why said all this to Hunter.

Those words might  be too lenient for  such  people if you followed  how they attack others  without them giving  anything to  the forum.

I appreciate this post .


Side note :
Being a short termn trader is  perfectly okay if it suits one.  But some try to attack others if they don;t blindly follow their style and carry vengeance. New comers who does not know history or have experience will fall to their eye candy . CSE needs more people who does not make this their personal playground , gamble at other expense but make it a sustainable growth market. Fortuntely thigns are much better than 2012 first half now. Lesser panic and games.

pathfinder wrote:Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.

slstock wrote:Pathfinder ,

Sheesh. I did not mean you. So don' t go there .   I  know you are balanced in your approach.  

Have you not seen me reasonable and temparete most of the times?


However If you look carefully you will find such pandithaya  example  in the forum right now and  since you been around you will know the  history  of such people and  how they play with new comer minds.
They can easily come here and say Hunters predications and post is crap and he is promoting his portfolio when actually he has doing some real analysis to share with the forum ( which those people do not do) . That why said all this to Hunter.

Those words might  be too lenient for  such  people if you followed  how they attack others  without them giving  nothing to  the forum.


Side note :
Being a short termn trader is  perfectly okay if it suits one.  But some try to attack others if they don;t blindly follow their style.
.

pathfinder wrote:Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.

I replied because you quote my words,No hard feelings  

Of course there are hard working promotors.they are dancing here because of the silence of the good fellows,
I have seen you are fighting alone,other good fellows must help him.

Pathfinder,

Lot of senior people here know the truth behind such person/s but they don't reply to protect the forum/defend injustice as

a) don;t want to waste their time
b) are afraid to post as they will be the next target from such uncouth people

You are a senior member. I think you should also say what you know when such events happen.

Lot of people do not understand people power/ pressure is the key to eradicate injustice/thugs/corruption . This is true even at country level.

pathfinder wrote:

slstock wrote:Pathfinder ,

Sheesh. I did not mean you. So don' t go there .   I  know you are balanced in your approach.  

Have you not seen me reasonable and temparete most of the times?


However If you look carefully you will find such pandithaya  example  in the forum right now and  since you been around you will know the  history  of such people and  how they play with new comer minds.
They can easily come here and say Hunters predications and post is crap and he is promoting his portfolio when actually he has doing some real analysis to share with the forum ( which those people do not do) . That why said all this to Hunter.

Those words might  be too lenient for  such  people if you followed  how they attack others  without them giving  nothing to  the forum.


Side note :
Being a short termn trader is  perfectly okay if it suits one.  But some try to attack others if they don;t blindly follow their style.
.

pathfinder wrote:Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.

I replied because you quote my words,No hard feelings  

Of course there are hard working promotors.they are dancing here because of the silence of the good fellows,
I have seen you are fighting alone,other good fellows must help him.

Good one Hunter.. As discussed by others, a lil bit waiting on plantation is a good go imo..

Have you not looked at JKH & LLUB.. Me thinking differently on these now-a-days...
RCL, VONE, HPLF and LFIN also come to my mind these days   

hunter wrote:I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

Thank you hunter, again very valuable post. i know ur always giving very valuable knowledge to the form. i remember good old days u post technical analysis method in downtrend market.i m using it and i found real track for trading & investing.I'm great full to u for the enlighten me. thank you sir......keep up the good work whatever the feed back.

hunter,
Thank u very much for valuable post

I remember someone asked whether there is any Bank that is below NAV.

It is mentioned in this post ;-)

During my short tour of CSE started recently....
first time in my time here....
yesterday I brought JKH @249/- & COMB @112.60

as per my experiences and feelings....
buy shares like LLUB & JKH... so great....
when compared to my previous counters ....
BIL, LOFC, AAF, SFS, BERU.....

but yet selection of price & time is the GAME changer.....simply the ENTRY......!!!

lets see....real result with coming time....
GL!

smallville wrote:Good one Hunter.. As discussed by others, a lil bit waiting on plantation is a good go imo..

Have you not looked at JKH & LLUB.. Me thinking differently on these now-a-days...
RCL, VONE, HPLF and LFIN also come to my mind these days   

@smallville....
so u too positive on following counters @current level.......????? to enter....???
JKH
LLUB
RCL
VONE
HPLF
LFIN

Thx!
***Note for others don't take this as a promotion OK! do your home work....!!!

Thanks all for your constructive comments and for suggesting alternative options.
In fact, I am also following other shares which I think can equally or better perform. But I cannot justify thier expectations without being subjective in my analysis. So decided to put together only less disputable ones

@ wappula,
You've been a good observer
However, I would still call me a student of the market;
Not actually teaching, just sharing my views with others; and
prefer to call these 'possibilities' rather than 'predictions'; because to me,
'predictions' sound like 'gambling' where
'possibilities' sound like 'calculated risks'

Hey Small!
I mentioned RCL in my other post and later found you had already suggested here. Thanks for that.
Glad to see 'still' we have a lot of common counters in out watchlists.

Just a clarification, currently RCL owns Lanka walltile correct? so why buy LWL and not RCL. If it is a devident play it is OK I guess but on Value appreciation I would say RCL, what do you guys think?