Shall i exit ??????

million · 1 Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 5:40 pm

million

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hi guys,

i have a very bad feeling about the market and now that my confidence has gone away so i plan to exit poultry stocks. I expect the fall to continue due to the june credit clearence.no one wants to pay more to buy when they could get it cheaper in june.but one thing i couldnt understand about the chicks why doesnt it hold on when other stock can. Gran fell to 160 last month picked up to 190 then again 140.same with tafl.while the below dropped but holding on,

Kgal - droped to 200 and still around that.
Namu - droped to 113 and holding on
CFLB,LCEY are other examples of this.

why do you think this is. is it the Chicken bubble bursting ??

Please also advice me on exiting the poultry stocks ?

Slstock · 2 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 5:46 pm

Slstock

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million wrote:hi guys,

i have a very bad feeling about the market and now that my confidence has gone away so i plan to exit poultry stocks. I expect the fall to continue due to the june credit clearence.no one wants to pay more to buy when they could get it cheaper in june.but one thing i couldnt understand about the chicks why doesnt it hold on when other stock can. Gran fell to 160 last month picked up to 190 then again 140.same with tafl.while the below dropped but holding on,

Kgal - droped to 200 and still around that.
Namu - droped to 113 and holding on
CFLB,LCEY are other examples of this.

why do you think this is. is it the Chicken bubble bursting ??

Please also advice me on exiting the poultry stocks ?

Best t observe market for a few more days. Panickin now might not be best. BFL reports might be duein the near future. Let see what happens tommorow.
. It can dip a bit more but bounce back. Just watch if it goes to around ASI 7200 if it does we need to be more careful .

Rajitha · 3 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 6:54 pm

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Let Me give you a small tip! I don't like to post here a lot now but felt to really say this!
IF you ask a forum like this regarding if to sell the shares you have or not THEY WILL ALWAYS TRY TO CONVINCE YOU TO HOLD ON AT LEAST THE MAJORITY! thats the name of the game!

Do you really think they would like to see market going down? Even if they tell you to sell it might most probably be after they sell those shares! Forget poultry stocks its true to anything!

My advice is Try to analyse the market and don't rely on these forum to get an idea when to enter or to exit the market!

cse1981 · 4 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 7:17 pm

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I THINK some time extent credit clearing period Shall i exit ?????? Icon_razz [/size]

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StocksWatch · 5 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 8:03 pm

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Rajitha, with all due respect to you, I am in disagreement with your statement "THEY WILL ALWAYS TRY TO CONVINCE YOU TO HOLD ON AT LEAST THE MAJORITY!"

The issue here is the members are mostly asking the opinion whether to sell or hold when the share is in or near the oversold region. It is understandable that when the price is rising, very rarely they will be bothered to ask this question.

Beside that who is the investor in CSE do you think will like to see the market going down?

I agree with your advice "Try to analyse the market and don't rely on these forum to get an idea when to enter or to exit the market!"

Last edited by StocksWatch on Tue May 03, 2011 8:04 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Formatting)

ipoguru · 6 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 9:48 pm

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Please check the GRAN graph.
Shall i exit ?????? Y_T_74

It has gone up to 250 and coming down since then in a steep slope.
My prediction is it will not go below 125 for sure.... If market drops to 50% of previous peak value there is very high resistance level from there.....

I also don't see it will go down below 140 level unless this red market continues. If the red market continues it will go down further....

IF you are smart to find out when the market turning point is you may exit now and buy at the turning point.
Never exit this fully I do not see any other stocks which has potential to go up like chicken stocks. If this start running it will be in 200 no time. You may sell but monitor the turning point very closely so that you can re enter.

Don't forget that perpetual hold big stake in GRAN and TAFL and they bought at 230 levels. They will try to average their costs and then make the market high.

ipoguru · 7 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 9:53 pm

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ipoguru wrote:Please check the GRAN graph.

It has gone up to 250 and coming down since then in a steep slope.
My prediction is it will not go below 125 for sure.... If market drops to 50% of previous peak value there is very high resistance level from there.....

I also don't see it will go down below 140 level unless this red market continues. If the red market continues it will go down further....

IF you are smart to find out when the market turning point is you may exit now and buy at the turning point.
Never exit this fully I do not see any other stocks which has potential to go up like chicken stocks. If this start running it will be in 200 no time. You may sell but monitor the turning point very closely so that you can re enter.

Don't forget that perpetual hold big stake in GRAN and TAFL and they bought at 230 levels. They will try to average their costs and then make the market high.

FYI Today I sold DIST and bought GRAN at 143 levels... and UBC at 31.60 levels I do not know whether to cry or laugh :lol!: :lol!: will know soon though

I was wrong I should have kept money with me till the market recovery trend observed.....

Last edited by ipoguru on Wed May 04, 2011 11:26 pm; edited 1 time in total

Academic · 8 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 10:11 pm

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Rajitha wrote: Let Me give you a small tip! I don't like to post here a lot now but felt to really say this!
IF you ask a forum like this regarding if to sell the shares you have or not THEY WILL ALWAYS TRY TO CONVINCE YOU TO HOLD ON AT LEAST THE MAJORITY! thats the name of the game!

Do you really think they would like to see market going down? Even if they tell you to sell it might most probably be after they sell those shares! Forget poultry stocks its true to anything!

My advice is Try to analyse the market and don't rely on these forum to get an idea when to enter or to exit the market!

Well said, though after long. + rep from me.

Just to complement that there may be some who wants to bring prices down. And collect low.

Slstock · 9 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 1:04 am

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Rajitha wrote: Let Me give you a small tip! I don't like to post here a lot now but felt to really say this!
IF you ask a forum like this regarding if to sell the shares you have or not THEY WILL ALWAYS TRY TO CONVINCE YOU TO HOLD ON AT LEAST THE MAJORITY! thats the name of the game!

Do you really think they would like to see market going down? Even if they tell you to sell it might most probably be after they sell those shares! Forget poultry stocks its true to anything!

My advice is Try to analyse the market and don't rely on these forum to get an idea when to enter or to exit the market!

I can't agree with this general statement saying "Do you really think they would like to see market going down?Even if they tell you to sell it might most probably be after they sell those shares!"

Maybe some want to see market go down so they can collect low. That sometimes a manipulator job.

If someone makes a blunt statement like "Hold","Sell" or "Buy"and if the poster don't makes sense, the reader can discard posters opinion. This is a public forum and I agree all kinds of people can exist. The Genuine, the cunning, the pessimists , the optimists , the analysts , the fundamentalists, the technical people, and the people trying to make their own hidden agendas. If the posters content make sense to you , you can take it or if they don' you can reject it as it is upto the reader to anaylze and decide the validity.

However the below statement is good advice. "My advice is Try to analyse the market and don't rely on these forum to get an idea when to enter or to exit the market!"

As I already commented on Million question , leaving that a side in general it is good to note certain shares are at 8-9 month lows. ( not poultry) If a new comer want to panic and sell at this time at the lowest ( yes it can go down further if the market is weak) it will not be good advice for a Medium to Long term investor ( [b]am not talking about SHort term or gambling)

It all depends on your holding power and the intension of investment. I am more of a Medium to Long term investor. I have shares which I held for over 3 years still. So mostly my opinion will be based on the Medium term atleast.

If someone want to go short term, or gamble then the situation will be different. Reducing losses by stop loss can be considered in such cases.

wis · 10 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 7:21 am

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If you buy when the market is going up and if you sell every time the market is going down, you will end up with nothing. Usually stock investing is a 3-5 year investment. If you have invested in good businesses is there anything to worry? When funds and investment companies bought SPEN, COMB and even GRAN etc. recently they're not worried about big dips in the on going market. They don't think oh I bought it at that price but now it's this, i should sell it. When you compare the final outcome in 3-5 years fuzzing over today's big dips will look ridiculous at that time. Those dips will look insignificant in the future charts. You will wonder why I fuzzed over Rs. 10, 50 at that time when I could have made 200% if I had it now. Sri Lanka still has growth potential for couple of years before it becomes steady.

tkc · 11 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 7:26 am

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ipoguru wrote:Please check the GRAN graph.

It has gone up to 250 and coming down since then in a steep slope.
My prediction is it will not go below 125 for sure.... If market drops to 50% of previous peak value there is very high resistance level from there.....

I also don't see it will go down below 140 level unless this red market continues. If the red market continues it will go down further....

IF you are smart to find out when the market turning point is you may exit now and buy at the turning point.
Never exit this fully I do not see any other stocks which has potential to go up like chicken stocks. If this start running it will be in 200 no time. You may sell but monitor the turning point very closely so that you can re enter.

Don't forget that perpetual hold big stake in GRAN and TAFL and they bought at 230 levels. They will try to average their costs and then make the market high.

I m impressed with your post my friend!! Smile

milanka · 12 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 7:42 am

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tkc wrote:

ipoguru wrote:Please check the GRAN graph.

It has gone up to 250 and coming down since then in a steep slope.
My prediction is it will not go below 125 for sure.... If market drops to 50% of previous peak value there is very high resistance level from there.....

I also don't see it will go down below 140 level unless this red market continues. If the red market continues it will go down further....

IF you are smart to find out when the market turning point is you may exit now and buy at the turning point.
Never exit this fully I do not see any other stocks which has potential to go up like chicken stocks. If this start running it will be in 200 no time. You may sell but monitor the turning point very closely so that you can re enter.

Don't forget that perpetual hold big stake in GRAN and TAFL and they bought at 230 levels. They will try to average their costs and then make the market high.

I m impressed with your post my friend!!

Me too !!

million · 13 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 8:42 am

million

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Thanks guys, for all your advices.

i think i have to improvise my strategy once again to suite this market. wish all the very best including me to survive in this market.

Rajitha · 14 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 8:56 am

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Can I ask the question from some of the people posting here who think market is at at a bottom! How do you know this is the bottom and not a top for these few months? Can you say for sure the market might not drop even 500 ASI more and the shares will follow in 1.5 months time ?
I'm Personally in the process of clearing all my t+5 Credit ATM and i'm keep some credit till some of the quarterly reports pop up! Shortly after I'm hoping to clear as much as half of my portfolio if possible considering the market situation!
The market is driven by FEAR and GREED and its high time people start to realize this!

On a personal side note regarding chick stocks, I just hope GRAN don't drop to rs 120-130 level for everyone sake! Although the market sentiment + the order book clearly indicate its heading their!

raa · 15 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 3:11 pm

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This market is and has been so artificially inflated that it could not be sustained. With regard to the chicken run, my opinion is that for the most part it was caused due to a massive collection by Perpetual as opposed to any sort of fundamental value run where the price would peak and maybe fall and settle at a new higher equilibrium. I.e, price catches up with earnings.

So for all practical purposes, it wouldn't be weird for the stock to keep declining in price with a few hopefuls stepping in every now and then to stabilise the price or to make a quick buck for themselves until the overall market sentiment changes and buying confidence and momentum sets in. At that point, it will be easier to see a price floor for the stocks in question.

Also mind you, there is another credit clearing deadline in June and if things were bad before, they must be worse for those who have taken credit or still have credit as most stocks have declined further since. Sad

StocksWatch · 16 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 3:16 pm

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Good point raa.

tubal · 17 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 5:50 pm

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Rajitha wrote:Can I ask the question from some of the people posting here who think market is at at a bottom! How do you know this is the bottom and not a top for these few months? Can you say for sure the market might not drop even 500 ASI more and the shares will follow in 1.5 months time ?
I'm Personally in the process of clearing all my t+5 Credit ATM and i'm keep some credit till some of the quarterly reports pop up! Shortly after I'm hoping to clear as much as half of my portfolio if possible considering the market situation!
The market is driven by FEAR and GREED and its high time people start to realize this!

On a personal side note regarding chick stocks, I just hope GRAN don't drop to rs 120-130 level for everyone sake! Although the market sentiment + the order book clearly indicate its heading their!

I am not in the habit of agreeing with Rajitha but this time I am with him + from me.

wis wrote:If you buy when the market is going up and if you sell every time the market is going down, you will end up with nothing. Usually stock investing is a 3-5 year investment. If you have invested in good businesses is there anything to worry? When funds and investment companies bought SPEN, COMB and even GRAN etc. recently they're not worried about big dips in the on going market. They don't think oh I bought it at that price but now it's this, i should sell it. When you compare the final outcome in 3-5 years fuzzing over today's big dips will look ridiculous at that time. Those dips will look insignificant in the future charts. You will wonder why I fuzzed over Rs. 10, 50 at that time when I could have made 200% if I had it now. Sri Lanka still has growth potential for couple of years before it becomes steady.

Wis, investing in a 5 year time frame is fine but you still need to know when to get out. Sadly very many people in the CSE doesn't seem to know that.

I certainly don't advocate buying every trough and selling every peak on the short term trend. That's impossible, not even quants with automated trading systems can do so. And in a bear market it's a very risky thing to do.

However certainly makes sense to exit a stock when it's trading at an all time high, when the PER has risen to absurd levels and when the market appears to be over heated.

Raa sums it up perfectly:

raa wrote:This market is and has been so artificially inflated that it could not be sustained.

BFL for example was a fantastic pick at 65, 150 and even 300 but those who bought need to ask themselves does the factors that made it a great buy at 65 still apply at 500?

stockanalytic · 18 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 6:22 pm

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In my view
1. Analyse the chart...
2. Buy the fundamental stocks (others if chart suggest strong uptrend)
3. Don't use credit.
4. calculate the selling price according to percentage of gain that you are expecting.
5. Put the selling order in GTC. renew it every 5 days.
6. Go to nice sleep.
7. Always satisfy with your profit, don't feel sad when it moving further up or further down.

thanujav · 19 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 6:45 pm

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stockanalytic wrote:In my view
1. Analyse the chart...
2. Buy the fundamental stocks (others if chart suggest strong uptrend)
3. Don't use credit.
4. calculate the selling price according to percentage of gain that you are expecting.
5. Put the selling order in GTC. renew it every 5 days.
6. Go to nice sleep.
7. Always satisfy with your profit, don't feel sad when it moving further up or further down.

Good advise, 100% agreed.

raa · 20 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 8:48 pm

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stockanalytic wrote:In my view
1. Analyse the chart...
2. Buy the fundamental stocks (others if chart suggest strong uptrend)
3. Don't use credit.
4. calculate the selling price according to percentage of gain that you are expecting.
5. Put the selling order in GTC. renew it every 5 days.
6. Go to nice sleep.
7. Always satisfy with your profit, don't feel sad when it moving further up or further down.

Well said!

In my case, I only use steps 3, 4, 6, and 7.

Profit is profit, so be happy with what you have or it'll dishearten you and prevent you from seizing other opportunities. I would know, I offloaded all my BFL from 300rs upwards with my last 1000 shares being sold at 360rs. I cried for days....There are always opportunities in the market, you just have to be optimistic enough to look for them. (I might be wrong about this, but don't tell me Razz

)

Another cardinal truth about this market that I've found out to be true is what Warren Buffet said... Buy a stock that you are willing to hold even if the stock market closes down! (or something like that)...

avilon · 21 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 10:06 pm

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In the Union Bank IPO the market rapidly came down 2-3 days before the IPO.Can we expect the same thing with Expo Lanka .

Although there are some negative facts I think this IPO will also get over subscribed just like other IPO's held recently . Rolling Eyes

smallville · 22 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Sat May 07, 2011 2:52 pm

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million wrote:hi guys,

i have a very bad feeling about the market and now that my confidence has gone away so i plan to exit poultry stocks. I expect the fall to continue due to the june credit clearence.no one wants to pay more to buy when they could get it cheaper in june.but one thing i couldnt understand about the chicks why doesnt it hold on when other stock can. Gran fell to 160 last month picked up to 190 then again 140.same with tafl.while the below dropped but holding on,

Kgal - droped to 200 and still around that.
Namu - droped to 113 and holding on
CFLB,LCEY are other examples of this.

why do you think this is. is it the Chicken bubble bursting ??

Please also advice me on exiting the poultry stocks ?

If you can hold your horses and keep ur chin up Smile

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Shall i exit ??????

1 Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 5:40 pm

million

2 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 5:46 pm

Slstock

3 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 6:54 pm

Rajitha

4 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 7:17 pm

cse1981

5 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 8:03 pm

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6 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 9:48 pm

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7 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 9:53 pm

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8 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Tue May 03, 2011 10:11 pm

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9 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 1:04 am

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10 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 7:21 am

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11 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 7:26 am

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12 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 7:42 am

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13 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 8:42 am

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14 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 8:56 am

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15 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 3:11 pm

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16 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 3:16 pm

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19 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 6:45 pm

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20 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 8:48 pm

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21 Re: Shall i exit ?????? Wed May 04, 2011 10:06 pm

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