Below 6000 !

Aubrey Perera · 1 Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:04 am

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Where to from now turn around or 58000 range ?

econ · 2 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:07 am

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I highly doubt turnaround soon unless EPF and ETF start massive buying on behalf of the government.

Rapaport · 3 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:12 am

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Once people know EPF and ETF are shopping, foreign holdings in other stocks may also come on Easter Sale! They have bought stocks in 2012 dull period and already have decent gains...

Cheers!

worthiness · 4 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:34 am

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U turn from foreign buyers is possible with the pacification of Geneva news. International pressure, particularly from neighboring big brother towards domestic politics bangs every side of economy. Apart from that, no solid reason for foreigners to exit at a stretch.

yellow knife · 5 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:45 am

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Should a country depend on foreign investments unconditionally. Most probably they will leave when ever they want. When another destination become more dear to them than us they may leave us. Companies with less foreign holdings seems to be better for share holders. But I can not generalize on that. Vone is not having much foreign holding but they are not immunized against the current trend of downward slope.

My worry i show many moths will this continue. Are we seeing bull as a rare animal and bear as mostly available?

Aubrey Perera · 6 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:29 pm

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If JKH turns around we will all be smiling Smile

when is the question.

Backstage · 7 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:34 pm

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Guys, considering the amount of foreign inflow the last two years this outflow is still fractional and quite natural imo, that Janus was shedding jkh was no secret. Also I believe these sell offs are planned weeks ahead and not due to late evening news if you know what I mean.

ADP · 8 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:14 pm

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Backstage wrote:Guys, considering the amount of foreign inflow the last two years this outflow is still fractional and quite natural imo, that Janus was shedding jkh was no secret. Also I believe these sell offs are planned weeks ahead and not due to late evening news if you know what I mean.

I totally agree with you Backstage, this is all smoke and mirrors masking the real intention of big players. If you take this whole HR issue out of the picture and look at the economic environment we are at the binging of another growth cycle (My reference is with regard to low interest rates and low taxation rates). If the policy stance is to maintain low interest rates over the medium to long term I feel its only a matter of time we should see a sustained uptrend in the market.

Leon · 9 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:20 pm

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yellow knife wrote:Should a country depend on foreign investments unconditionally. Most probably they will leave when ever they want. When another destination become more dear to them than us they may leave us. Companies with less foreign holdings seems to be better for share holders. But I can not generalize on that. Vone is not having much foreign holding but they are not immunized against the current trend of downward slope.

My worry i show many moths will this continue. Are we seeing bull as a rare animal and bear as mostly available?

I feel this bull is gonna extinct.

Rapaport · 10 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:29 pm

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For low interest rate regime to take full effect, the government needs to reduce losses in the form of Sri Lankan airlines, Mihin, CEB, CPC and reduce borrowing. Govt borrows a large amount leaving peanuts for private sector... Financial institutes and individuals prefer the safe govt bonds and T bills even at this low rates..

Some may argue things are turning around but this is happening at very slow pace.. Exports are picking up and imports are slowing down... Currency is stable but can suddenly come under pressure..

While CEB increased electricity prices and had a bumper rainy season, losses came down. Now hydro output is low and coal plant is sinking!

CPC makes losses where as its couter part LIOC with same oil prices runs at staggering profits!

Mihin needs to be shut down!!!!!!!!!

Sri Lankan airlines once had best service and gave dividens to govt every year.. Due to govt ego it now in doldrums!

When you talk about low intrest rates why aren't govt banks BOC and peoples bank reduce rates??? They are having bad loans and interference and allows private banks to keep rates high... Govt banks need more transparency and less interference at this stage..

How would it be if another portion of CPC was privatised like LIOC, Mihin shut down, Sri Lankan privatised like SLT and listed, CEB get its coal power stations in order and BOC/Peoples bank cleaned up and listed??? Opinions??

Cheers!

yellow knife · 11 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:25 pm

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Rapaport

No two words . I totally agree with you. At least our government should understand the current situation without playing with numbers. Tourist arrivals are going up . But not the profit of the hotels. Then?

serene · 12 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:43 pm

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@Rapaport
Good Suggessions.But can We expect above proposals to come from the ruling parties?
May be in 2050...
But not in near future it will become a possibility only after Sri Lankans use their brains to elect Poloticians. Till then they will waste everything in the Country.

jonta999 · 13 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:47 pm

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Actually i want to see the party with a new leader coming in to power.

More radical changes are needed.

serene · 14 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:57 pm

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@jonta999.
Same thinking here mate.

jonta999 · 15 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:28 pm

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Yup

But hope they would not close down CSE Wink

Politicians should be accountable to the people and the funny answers they are giving in the parliament looks so pathetic.

Rapaport · 16 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:35 pm

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Power change will not happen that easily.. Extending presidency to unlimited number of times is the biggest mistake our parliament has done!

Anyways we must restrain ourselves and not deviate to politics on this forum and we must stick to its guidelines..
It is difficult when politics is involved in the economy..

We can only talk about possibilities, which i feel will happen one day down the line...

Govt must learn from SLT, LIOC and Peoples Leasing...

Cheers!

Rapaport · 17 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:42 pm

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CBSL must rally behind Govt banks to reduce interest rates!

The mismanagement of these big banks is the reason private banks are selling their products at will, in a low interest regime!

Cheers!

nkuda · 18 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:48 pm

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econ wrote:I highly doubt turnaround soon unless EPF and ETF start massive buying on behalf of the government.

Now FD, TB are worthless investments. Is this not a reason to attract money to Stock Market ? or people stile invest in FD's ?

Backstage · 19 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:50 pm

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The DEW Gunasekera report summed up the economy situ quite clearly. Thats the bigger picture, but short term market wise, its looking good.

worthiness · 20 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:17 pm

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@Rapaport
Controversial & debatable issue come up the impact among low interest rate, low inflation & the currency stability. How these three elements are synchronized with current pace of the economy?

dhanurrox · 21 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:42 pm

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Breaking 6000 was damn hard,coming below 6000 very easy,What technicals apply here?Amazing market.

ADP · 22 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:05 am

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@Rapaport
What you say with regard to Mihin, CEB, CPC are true these are a drain on the economy and it could be argued that the money could be better spent.

But lets look at the effect of these on the market. These three have been a black hole for many years and in 2012 contributed to the Balance of Payment crisis in 2012. Today the situation has changed we have ended 2013 with US$7.2bn in foreign reserves. Even though there are funds exiting srilanka now it is not in the scale you see it other emerging markets. The exchange rate seem to be holding up and Central Bank has enough reserves to defend the rupee if needed. Can it be sustained I don't know.

I don't think lending rates do come down as fast as they go up, so it may take some more time for the polices put in place to be reflected in the banking system.

The market ran up around 450 points in just over 30 days and I hope/think it is a correction amplified by the UN HR scare.

Tell me one thing if this HR issue was taken out of the picture would you be so pessimistic on the market?

Rapaport · 23 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:19 am

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I frankly believe friendly nations will bail us out of this UN issue... Not one bit concerned

Yes we have $7.2 billion reserves and this is partly built up with foreign debt!!!

CEB, Mihin, CPC, Sri Lankan have been a thorn in the past but the losses now are exceeding previous losses by staggering amounts, thats what is disturbing...

Market will go up no doubt, but govt must also get its act together..

Cheers!

knockknobbler · 24 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:26 pm

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ADP wrote:
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Tell me one thing if this HR issue was taken out of the picture would you be so pessimistic on the market?

Interesting Question !!
Thought a little bit. This is what came to my mind.

I think HR means Human Rights. So, if the RIGHTS of HUMAN beings are taken out of the picture, what's point in talking about markets ?

knockknobbler · 25 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:29 pm

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sorry, accidentally repeated (don't know how to delete the post )

Last edited by knockknobbler on Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:41 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : accidentally repeated)

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Below 6000 !

1 Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:04 am

Aubrey Perera

2 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:07 am

econ

3 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:12 am

Rapaport

4 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:34 am

worthiness

5 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:45 am

yellow knife

6 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:29 pm

Aubrey Perera

7 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:34 pm

Backstage

8 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:14 pm

ADP

9 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:20 pm

Leon

10 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:29 pm

Rapaport

11 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:25 pm

yellow knife

12 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:43 pm

serene

13 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:47 pm

jonta999

14 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:57 pm

serene

15 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:28 pm

jonta999

16 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:35 pm

Rapaport

17 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:42 pm

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18 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:48 pm

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19 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:50 pm

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20 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:17 pm

worthiness

21 Re: Below 6000 ! Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:42 pm

dhanurrox

22 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:05 am

ADP

23 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:19 am

Rapaport

24 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:26 pm

knockknobbler

25 Re: Below 6000 ! Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:29 pm

knockknobbler

26 Re: Below 6000 !

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