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Technical Analytics & Charts (1)

+59
monash
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ole
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63 posters

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Go down  Message [Page 13 of 40]

301Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:04 pm

Backstage


Moderator
Moderator

Thanks TAH,

I learn several things each day by following your posts. You, small, sls, chinwi ,antonty ect have unknowingly held my hand through my first big bad bear. I am sure that there are many, who are silently thankful.

BTW is an 8% stop loss realistic in immature markets such as CSE ?

302Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:26 pm

fairbullrun


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

traderathome wrote:http://www.irgworld.in/docs/Investing/24EssentialLessonsforInvestmentSuccess.pdf

A Good Article for all of us...to read through sunday...before we start it all over on monday.

The article is about the US Stock market..but the points are common for all market across.. cheers
TAH


Thanks TAH, its really excelent article, FBR Very Happy

303Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:51 pm

opfdo


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thank you.

traderathome wrote:http://www.irgworld.in/docs/Investing/24EssentialLessonsforInvestmentSuccess.pdf

A Good Article for all of us...to read through sunday...before we start it all over on monday.

The article is about the US Stock market..but the points are common for all market across.. cheers
TAH

304Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:57 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Thank you THA. Very useful article

305Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:33 pm

traderathome


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Very Happy Break-out is confirmed on JKH, Inversed Pattern H&S Looking for Minimum 260+ as stated earlier.

I had to break my promise that.....sorry guys Basketball

I dont know we would see a throw back to the neckline, but would be interesting to watch this week or the next for this PA ....

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Good Luck if you are already in the trade. See you @ 260/-

This is not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Please check with your Investment Advisor.
Basketball

306Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:42 am

Green79

Green79
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

I follow all your threads, I greatly appreciate your time and efforts.

Cheers TAH...!

307Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:17 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Hi All,there are something's I agree on the article and some you can take your discretion.its how you take risk.



308Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:08 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Here are the steps to upload the charts.

Step 1

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Step 2

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Step 3

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

309Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:11 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

The balance 3 steps.....

Step 4

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Step 5

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]


Step 6

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Regards
TAH

310Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:16 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

After step 3 and before step 4, you can draw lines enter texts , circle crop etc once thats done you may save it. And proceed to Step 4

Regards
Very Happy

TAH

311Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:47 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Thanks TAH, its excellent lesson.

312Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Tue Sep 18, 2012 10:50 pm

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics


TAH
A good lesson, I tried to upload one chart but failed, step 6 was my mistake.

313Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:32 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Yesterday daily candle on ASI was a Bearish Engulfing....Lets see how today it gonna close. We would preferably want to see Todays & Tomorrows closing candles to identify the market sentiments..... Very Happy

So i would be neutral for now.....

The short term corrections are necessary and part of the bull run, because new investors are looking for buy opportunities and if ASI is targetting 8000+ longterm, market needs fresh capital to inject at every DIP. That way momentum could be sustained. Otherwise we will have these doubting thomases not trusting the trend..to come on board.Imho this is the denial stage for the bears....By the time they realise the train is already left the station.Thats why people tend to loose on a trend and technical indicators which highlights change of trend quiet late. in choppy market condition false signals too can appear and could proove costly if you are solely depending on the indicators.

So try to have all 5 senses open for Price Actions/chart patterns/Supports & resistances as well if you are smart enough you may get into the trend when the smart money moves in.

Good luck
TAH



Last edited by traderathome on Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:57 am; edited 1 time in total

314Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:41 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Thanks TAH I mastered the method. I was able to post the following chart as a result.

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]



Last edited by K.Haputantri on Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

315Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:55 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Good for you Hapu..... Very Happy

Open the chart using PAINT and try to CROPby selecting the area you only need to display and save it. That way you can upload only the Chart Area you know what i mean...no need for us to see all the desktop area which we are seeing.......... Basketball

Regards
TAH

316Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:56 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

I am still not alarmed .....still i am up 5%..... few are RED which -1%.

I would advise dont be glued to your monitor through-out.

Your mind would do tricks ..and instill fear/greed.....

take time off..... Very Happy

If your heart can not take the RED Days.

We could advise all, the pressing that PANIC button is in your hands...

like smallv says, think and mentally toughen up that you will by good shares when they become cheaper than you originally bought.

This is the time to have some cash left ....in your account...

Best of Luck
I am holding on, we have seen the worst so no worries....

Bold Enough
TAH cheers

317Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:10 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Thanks TAH for your kind advice. I too thought there are unnecessary details but was not aware how to crop it until you explained it.

Re- your advice on not to get panic over the red days investment I too agree with you that if one is unable to take it up better to shut down the PC & take a brake. Ups & downs are natural.

318Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:25 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

K.Haputantri wrote:Thanks TAH I mastered the method. I was able to post the following chart as a result.

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]
Hope to see more charts from you..... Smile

319Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:00 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Here is the Daily CANDLE.....

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Doing the ASI chart on EW....

TAH
cheers

320Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:30 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Did re-visit the Elliot Wave notes......

Looks very interesting when you have to depict the the wave count.....are we in for some flatter period on the 4th corrective wave....only time will tell....

we saw a correction (you will notice on my next chart) of 76% on FIB on the 2 corrective wave, and if someone strictly goes by the theory we should not see a sharper correction lower than 5670. Very Happy that would then invalidate the Count.....so will have re-count if this happens... afro

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

But no body can tell precisely .......

Here is the chart with FIB.....

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]


Just food for thought.......

TAH



Last edited by traderathome on Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:00 am; edited 1 time in total

321Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:43 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Will ASI test tomorrow Todays LOW of 5780....

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

Hope the FIB lvls are clearer...

TAH

322Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Wed Sep 19, 2012 11:52 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Does this mean the bigger down trend is over and we are looking for shorter correction for the 5th wave to complete near 6600 that would mark Bigger Wave 1 completion and the beginning of series of waves...to fascilitate BW 2. So I am not discounting any choppy market situ in the next days or weeks....when the bulls and bears battle it out....i keep my fingers crossed....slightly BULLISH Bias..... Cool There is also a possibility this to be a quick correction wave before shooting up to 66XX reason being the 1st correction looks a bit flatter...that would be a boost and may i use the term BEAR TRAP......sorry sellers Laughing

Enjoy............. cheers

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

TAH

Basketball



Last edited by traderathome on Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:20 am; edited 1 time in total

323Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:15 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Can some1 put their notes/observation on the current Elliot wave calculations i have drawn....

that would help me/all ..... to look things indifferently...i am sure there are more newcomers here in the forum learning ...including me sometimes from the newest member in the bloc

The thread has now become....3 in 1...with HPP,Japanese Candelistik and EW.......you got excuse me for that.... rabbit

But i guess HPP FIB and EW go hand in hand.....so i dont see much difficult to grasp even if you are new to SLEquity Forum......

All we need is some patience and time ....... Rolling Eyes
TAH
TAH

324Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:38 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Surprised Is this the TUG O WAR..... we have been contemplating....

TAH

325Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:15 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Here is todays Daily ASI closing candle.

Did notice a 50% correction was complete yesterday....and today's BULLISH engulfing candle pattern, and one could hardly see the higher wick on the candle. This should have all BULLS upbeat tomorrow...As its another day for them to test higher ground...

I would like to see tomorrow's closing to be marked with a higher high.... Very Happy thats 6000+

Good Luck TAH

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][/img]

326Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Sep 21, 2012 10:36 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Here is an interesting article .............

What are some of the important things novice investors should be aware of?
We've culled together sound tidbits of advice from some of the most Without further delay, let's dive into our list of beginner stock market investing tips:

Keep your expectations realistic

Effective stock investing is not about doubling your money in one month. Sure, a lot of websites promise this with some newfangled technique or the other.... but really, these are just "Get-Rich-Quick" schemes.

Success in investing comes by being patient, continuously learning, and being rational. A goal of 10-15% return consistently, year after year, will make you a hugely successful investor.

To put this in perspective, 20-30% average annual return is what investment legends like Peter Lynch and Ben Graham had achieved during their careers.

Invest in what you know

It's absolutely essential that you understand the business you're investing in. Warren Buffett calls this the "circle of competence."

Look around you. You can always spot investment opportunities by concentrating on what you already know and are familiar with. Some examples would be the industry you work in; restaurant chains, retail stores, etc. in your neighborhood that always draw large volume of customers.


Invest for the long run

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years. "

- Warren Buffett

Day trading can be exhilarating. The sheer adrenaline rush of buying and selling based on technical indicators, stock tips, changing investor mood, weather patterns in Nepal, etc. is addictive.

But if you're buying stock in great companies at attractive prices, trading in and out of the stock washes out all the effort put in picking the stock in the first place. In addition, great companies don't lose their greatness at the drop of a hat .... they have enduring competitive advantages.

So it really pays off to be in it for the long run.

Know when to sell

While it would be theoretically nice to own stock in a company for eternity, you have to be in tune with practical realities. The key question that most beginning investors have is: "When to sell?"

It's very easy to get attached to companies you've invested in. This can sometimes be dangerous, especially if it makes you ignore potential signs of trouble.

Buying stock in a company is like buying the business

Buying stock in a company should involve research and analysis along the same lines as buying a business.

Stocks are not just things to be traded — they represent ownership interest in a company. So when you buy stock in a company you should treat the undertaking similar to buying the whole company ... always do the necessary due diligence.


Use market fluctuations to your advantage

The market usually is fairly accurate in pricing stocks. However, sometimes, emotions get the better of investors. At times like this stocks can be mispriced.

What should a beginner, or for that matter, any serious investor, do at times like this?

Never sell in panic just because the market is under-valuing your stock. In most cases, this is only temporary.

In fact, times of maximum pessimism like these are when the best bargains are to be had. Buying meaningful amount of stock at huge discounts in companies that you've researched demands a lot of courage, but the payoff is well worth it.

On the other hand, what should the investor do at the other extreme — overvaluing?

If you find the stock price of companies you've invested in way above what you've valued them, this might be a good time to sell. Sooner or later the market will correct itself and it's best to lock in your gains before that happens.

When investor emotion causes the market to fluctuate wildly, it's worthwhile to recall Ben Graham's Mr. Market Parable.

Always insist on a margin of safety
No matter how well you know a company or to how many decimals you estimate it's stock price .... there are always surprises. How do deal with this?

You use a margin of safety to help protect you from some of the unpredictability. Of course, you can never completely insulate yourself from downturns .... but when you use a margin of safety, the probability of huge losses is significantly lower.

Be able to explain your picks

You should be able to explain your reasons for buying a stock. Selling your idea first, preferably to someone else, can help you spot flaws in your reasoning.

The key points you should touch upon?

Describe the reasons you are interested in the company, what has to happen for the company to succeed, and the obstacles that might prevent its success.

Block out the noise

Unless you're a professional investor, the time you have available for investing is very limited. The media is full of all kinds of stock tips, stock analysis and advice, and predictions about the market. It's very easy to get overwhelmed in this ocean of primarily useless noise.

Your limited time is best used to researching companies you're interested in buying.

Think independently

How often have you been tempted to dive into a stock purchase based on what the "talking-heads" and so called "experts" on TV recommend? It's a lot easier to leave the thinking to the experts. But remember ... it's your money and you have the biggest stake in it. So a little effort now will reap rich returns later.

Being able to think independently also means that quite often you will find yourself going against the crowd. Don't be afraid to do so as long as you've done your homework.

Remember .... investing is more about having the right temperament than being exceptionally intelligent. In the words of Warren Buffett, ""Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with a 130 IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing."

Beware of the diversification trap

An important beginner stock marketing investing point is the discussion on diversification. If your goal is to actually do the work of researching companies, understanding their financials, and estimating their intrinsic value, then diversification will actually hold you down.

On the other hand, if you really want to get into the stock market but don't have the inclination or the time to pick your own stocks, then diversification is absolutely essential.

327Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:16 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Here is another article which i selected for week-end reading........... Very Happy

Have a go at it...

Buy and Hold — Is It For You?

Let's take a look at what exactly "buy and hold" means. We'll also look at how long is long and when you should sell a stock.


What Does "Buy and Hold" Mean

It's an investment strategy that blends seamlessly with Fundamental Analysis. After you buy a stock, you hold on to it for a while even if its price bounces wildly. You sell only when you have good reason to.

You can see see how this is radically different from a market timing strategy — buy low, sell high.

This brings us to a very important question — how long is long?

Long is relative. From a buy and hold perspective, long would mean at least several weeks. Anything shorter than that would generally fall under another stock investing strategy called day trading.

If you've bought the stock based on the fundamentals, then you should sell only if you have very good reason to. And that brings us to the next important point....


When Do You Sell A Stock?

The best investors are divided when it comes to this question. At one end of the spectrum you have the Warren Buffett camp that says, "Our favorite holding period is forever." At the other end, you had Peter Lynch who held on to most of the stocks in his portfolio for a month or two at the most. His entire list turned over at least once a year. And, he had around 1400 holdings!

It's important to note here that these are big players with billions of dollars in investments. Different rules apply there.

Your decision to sell a stock should be based on the strategy you're using. Since we use Fundamental Analysis, here are our reasons to sell stock:

When the price of a stock crosses its intrinsic value — the stock is now getting overvalued and with that comes the risk of a sudden drop in price. Time to lock in your profit and exit.

You realize you made a mistake in your analysis — it happens every once in a while. You find something you don't like about the company or its management. Had you known that before you invested, you would have never bought the stock. If the reasons you bought the stock are no longer valid, it's best to sell. Remove the emotion out of the decision, admit you made a mistake, and sell. You will be better off.

The fundamentals have deteriorated — the strong past financial performance of the company have now started going south. Evaluate the situation. If it doesn't look like the company will come out of the decline anytime soon, it may be time to sell.

A better opportunity comes along — you find another company to invest in with great financials and a very attractive price. One small problem .... you don't have enough cash to buy a meaningful amount of stock. Can you sell one or more of the stocks you own that will free up some cash?



The buy and hold strategy does not mean owning a stock indefinitely. Believe it or not, selling a stock is much harder than buying a stock. You tend to get emotionally attached to the stock. It's hard to sell when the price has fallen steeply — you're always hoping that somehow the price will come back up again and you won't loose your money. It's hard to sell when the price rises — you don't want to get in the way of a good thing.

So again, let your stock investing strategy dictate when you should sell. Try and not let emotion get in the way. Remember ... you want to own the stock as long as you don't have a good enough reason to sell it. But if you do have a reason, sell it. Get it over with. Move on.

TAH

328Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:34 pm

fairbullrun

fairbullrun
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

traderathome wrote:Here is another article which i selected for week-end reading........... Very Happy

Have a go at it...

Buy and Hold — Is It For You?

Let's take a look at what exactly "buy and hold" means. We'll also look at how long is long and when you should sell a stock.


What Does "Buy and Hold" Mean

It's an investment strategy that blends seamlessly with Fundamental Analysis. After you buy a stock, you hold on to it for a while even if its price bounces wildly. You sell only when you have good reason to.

You can see see how this is radically different from a market timing strategy — buy low, sell high.

This brings us to a very important question — how long is long?

Long is relative. From a buy and hold perspective, long would mean at least several weeks. Anything shorter than that would generally fall under another stock investing strategy called day trading.

If you've bought the stock based on the fundamentals, then you should sell only if you have very good reason to. And that brings us to the next important point....


When Do You Sell A Stock?

The best investors are divided when it comes to this question. At one end of the spectrum you have the Warren Buffett camp that says, "Our favorite holding period is forever." At the other end, you had Peter Lynch who held on to most of the stocks in his portfolio for a month or two at the most. His entire list turned over at least once a year. And, he had around 1400 holdings!

It's important to note here that these are big players with billions of dollars in investments. Different rules apply there.

Your decision to sell a stock should be based on the strategy you're using. Since we use Fundamental Analysis, here are our reasons to sell stock:

When the price of a stock crosses its intrinsic value — the stock is now getting overvalued and with that comes the risk of a sudden drop in price. Time to lock in your profit and exit.

You realize you made a mistake in your analysis — it happens every once in a while. You find something you don't like about the company or its management. Had you known that before you invested, you would have never bought the stock. If the reasons you bought the stock are no longer valid, it's best to sell. Remove the emotion out of the decision, admit you made a mistake, and sell. You will be better off.

The fundamentals have deteriorated — the strong past financial performance of the company have now started going south. Evaluate the situation. If it doesn't look like the company will come out of the decline anytime soon, it may be time to sell.

A better opportunity comes along — you find another company to invest in with great financials and a very attractive price. One small problem .... you don't have enough cash to buy a meaningful amount of stock. Can you sell one or more of the stocks you own that will free up some cash?



The buy and hold strategy does not mean owning a stock indefinitely. Believe it or not, selling a stock is much harder than buying a stock. You tend to get emotionally attached to the stock. It's hard to sell when the price has fallen steeply — you're always hoping that somehow the price will come back up again and you won't loose your money. It's hard to sell when the price rises — you don't want to get in the way of a good thing.

So again, let your stock investing strategy dictate when you should sell. Try and not let emotion get in the way. Remember ... you want to own the stock as long as you don't have a good enough reason to sell it. But if you do have a reason, sell it. Get it over with. Move on.

TAH

Thank you very much TAH these are really interesting reading for us. good luck Very Happy FBR

329Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:44 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Stock Investment Prerequisites — Out Best Investment Advice To You

You've done your due diligence. You've absorbed the basics of stock investing. You feel ready to dive into the world of stock investing.
You've done your due diligence. You've absorbed the basics of stock investing. You still feel nervous and unsure about stock investing.

These are two common scenarios most people face at this point.

The best investment advice we can give you is, "Hold on! Take a deep breath and go over this brief list of prerequisites first."

It's absolutely essential for your long term investing success that you make sure you've taken these steps first. Failure to do so will only drag down your performance.


Stock Investment Prerequisites

Before you take that first step, there are certain barriers that you have to break down. Here's our recommendation on how to go about this:

Consumer Debt: Consumer debt is typically is credit card debt or high interest loans. This kind of debt with an interest rate north of 18% needs to be dealt with first and foremost.

Why? A rate of return of 15% every year on your stock investments is considered very good. But if you still have credit card debt demanding more than 18% interest, in essence, you're losing 3% every year... compounded!

Bottom line.... if you have the money, pay off this expensive debt first instead of using that money to invest in stocks.

How about debt with lower interest rates, say 4-5%? It's going to take you some time to gain experience investing in stocks and making decent returns. If you have enough experience and a decent track record, you can actually use some of your available finances towards buying stock.

From a "peace of mind" perspective though, it's always good to pay off these kinds of debt first.

Emergency Fund: You want to make sure you have money saved up for emergencies like unforeseen medical care, living expenses in case of a job loss, etc.

How big should this fund be? That depends on where you live, how long you think you would be able to get another job if you lose your current one, how much you currently spend, and such considerations. You are the best person to make this call. You should go with a minimum of at least six months of living expenses.

This money is sacred — to be used in real emergencies only.

Overcoming your fear: This is probably the biggest barrier for beginning stock investors. The stock market can be a really scary and intimidating place. Turn on any business TV channel and you are bound to hear terms you've never heard before.

Relax! As long as you stick to what you know, control your emotions, and make your own, independent decisions you will do much better than most investors.

So how do you address this "fear factor"? Paper trade first.

Paper trading means simulating your stock transactions. So you would use paper and pencil or a computer to record your stock transactions. You won't be using real money at this point ... just imaginary money.

So pick an amount to start with... say $10,000. Do your research like you would if you were actually using $10,000 to invest. Decide which stock and how much you want to buy. Check the market rate you buy it at. Record your transaction.

Use your imaginary $10,000 to pick great stocks following the fundamentals we've covered. This is your imaginary portfolio. Watch it from now on till you're done paper trading.

Doing this gives you hands-on experience with stock investing.

How long should you paper trade? As long as it takes for you to feel confident. Some days you will see your portfolio nose-dive, some days it will rocket up. These gyrations should help surface emotions of panic or euphoria as the case may be.

It is very important that you don't act (buy or sell) based on these emotions. It's good to experience these before you have real money in the market. It will help you deal with them when you're actually investing.

Even if you're not nervous about taking that first step, paper trading serves as "training wheels" and you should try it for a bit first.

How much to start with? When you're just getting started, the money you invest in the stock market should be money you can live without. There are two reasons we say this....

First, in order for you to see your money grow, you have to give it some time to appreciate. So your money might need to be locked in for sometime.

Second, no matter how much research you do, or how attractive your purchase price is, you will lose money occasionally. It happens to even the best investors.

So consider the above two factors when deciding how much money you should start with.

Make a watch list: As you screen stocks and estimate how much they should trade for, you need a put these companies in a list. You also need some kind of notification once the stock price approaches your target.

A watch list is a convenient way to achieve this. Our Stock Charts page covers some websites that can help you set up a watch list in addition to viewing charts.




In summary, the best investment advice we can give you before you get into stock investing is to make sure you follow some basic prerequisites — eliminate consumer debt, build your emergency fund, paper trade first, invest with money you can afford to see decline in value, and build a good watch list.

Following these basic steps will give you a great start into the exciting world of stock investing.


330Technical Analytics & Charts (1) - Page 13 Empty Re: Technical Analytics & Charts (1) Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:47 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Warren Buffett — Investor Extraordinaire

Warren Buffett is undoubtedly the most successful investor of all times. Volumes have been written about him and his investment style. We're going to take a brief biographical look at his life, his investment style, and the nuggets of advice he has for beginning investors.


Early Life

Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in Omaha, Nebraska to Howard and Leila Buffett. Howard Buffett, a stock-broker who later ran successfully for Congress, was the most influential person in Warren Buffet's life. Buffett was an only son and the middle of three children.

Buffett displayed a strong aptitude for money and business at a very early age. People who knew him then recall his amazing ability to calculate columns of numbers in his head quickly.

When he was six, he bought 6-packs of Coca Cola from his grandfather's grocery store for twenty five cents and resold each of the bottles for a nickel, pocketing a five cent profit. At age eleven he purchased three shares of Cities Service Preferred at $38 per share for both himself and his older sister, Doris. Shortly after buying the stock, it fell to just over $27 per share. Buffett held his shares until they rebounded to $40. He promptly sold them happy at the whopping 48% return. But this was a mistake he would soon come to regret. Cities Service shot up to $200! This was his first major lesson in patience — a virtue he has become famous for today.


Education

After he graduated from high school at 17, Buffett displayed a reluctance to go to college. He was already making around $5,000 per year delivering newspapers.... around $42,000 in today's value. At his father's insistence, he finally attended the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School. A couple of years later he transferred to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Working full-time, he managed to graduate in only three years with a B.S. in Economics.

The next stop was Graduate School. Once again, Buffett resisted, but was persuaded. He applied to Harvard Business School only to be rejected for being too young. He then applied to and was accepted at Columbia University. This move would change his life forever.

It was at Columbia that Buffett met Ben Graham — a professor at that time — whom Buffett came to idolize. In fact, Buffett was the only student ever who earned an A+ in one of Graham's classes.


Early Career

After graduating with a Masters in Economics, Buffett was eager to begin his Wall Street career by working for Ben Graham. But both his father and Graham advised against it. So eager was Buffett to work for Graham that he offered his services for free. Graham turned him down

Crushed, Buffett returned to Omaha to work at his father's brokerage firm. In 1952, Buffett married Susie Thompson, and a year later, they had their first child, also named Susie.

Then, in 1954, Buffett was finally offered a job at Ben Graham's partnership. The Buffet's moved to New York. The same year, the Buffet's had their second child, Howard.

Working with Ben Graham was a dream come true for Buffett. However, it wasn't long before differences between the thinking of these two men surfaced. Graham made investment choices based primarily on the numbers — the Financial Statements. Buffett, in addition to the financials, was keenly interested in what made a company superior to all its competitors. The company's management mattered a lot to Buffett, while Graham didn't really care who ran the company.

Between 1950 and 1956, Warren Buffett built his personal capital up to $140,000 from a mere $9,800. In 1956, Graham decided to retire and folded up the partnership. The Buffett's moved back to Omaha.


Buffett Associates Ltd.

On May 1, 1956, Warren Buffett created Buffett Associates Ltd., a partnership that included his sister, Doris, and his aunt, Alice, with $105,000 in capital. His contribution? A mere $100.

By the end of the year, he was managing around $300,000 in capital. Buffett had bigger plans. Over the next three years he created more partnerships — seven by 1960.

Buffet's performance during this time frame? An amazing 251.0% profit, while the Dow was up only 74.3%. Buffett was now a celebrity in his hometown.

By 1962, the partnership had capital in excess of $7.2 million, $1 million of which was Buffett's personal stake (his earning structure was a quarter of the profits above 4%, no fees). Buffett was now officially a millionaire.

He also had more than 90 limited partners across the United States. The partnerships were merged into a single entity called "Buffett Partnerships Ltd."


Berkshire Hathaway

In 1962, Buffett discovered a textile manufacturing firm, Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett's partnerships began purchasing shares at $7.60 per share. Later, in 1965, when Buffett's partnerships aggressively began purchasing Berkshire, they paid $14.86 per share while the company had working capital of $19 per share. This did not include the value of fixed assets (factory and equipment).

In May 1969, Buffett informed his partners that he was "unable to find any bargains in the current market". Buffett spent the remainder of the year liquidating most of his portfolio. He made two exceptions — Berkshire and Diversified Retailing. The shares of Berkshire were distributed among the partners. Buffett's personal stake in Berkshire was 29%.

On May 10, 1965, after accumulating 49% of the common stock, Buffett named himself Director. Next, he took control of Berkshire Hathaway at the board meeting and named a new president, Ken Chace, to run the company.

In 1970, Buffett named himself Chairman of the Board of Berkshire Hathaway and for the first time, wrote the letter to the shareholders. By this time, Buffett had partnered with Charlie Munger, who had moved back to his native Omaha from California. These two intellectual equals began a friendship that still endures.

The traditional Berkshire textile mill was in steady decline. Buffett, however, used it as a holding company to purchase several other companies over the years that did extremely well under him. His most prominent acquisitions included See's Candy, The Pampered Chef, National Indemnity Company, The Buffalo News, Nebraska Furniture Mart, NetJets, Borsheim's Fine Jewelry, Geico, Fruit of the Loom, and Dairy Queen.

In addition, Berkshire owns sizable stake in The Washington Post Company, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., American Express, Anheuser-Busch, The Coca-Cola Company, ISCAR International, and Procter & Gamble.

Warren Buffet's Investment Style

Several books have been written about Buffett's investment style. On the whole, his investment philosophy is fairly easy to understand. His genius lies in how he uses these principles to identify investment opportunities with resounding success.

So let's take a look at what Warren Buffett looks for in a company:

Circle of competence: Buffett restricts himself to businesses he can understand and analyze.... businesses within his "circle of competence". In order to forecast how a business is going to perform in the future, you have to know it intimately. Buffet's circle of competence? The companies Berkshire has purchased show a trend — banking, insurance, consumer goods for the most part.

Quality of Management: Buffett looks for how rationally the management of a company behaves ... how good it is in generating shareholder value. He also looks at management's honesty to shareholders — how good it is in admitting mistakes. Finally, he looks for companies where the management thinks for itself and does not blindly follow its competitors.

Financial Condition: Buffett always looks for what he calls "wide moat" companies. These are businesses with a clear competitive advantage who have built a moat around them keeping others far away. The wide moat is reflected in their strong financial position — outstanding return on equity, free cash flow, profit margins; minimal leverage.

Value: Buffett values companies based on a projection of how much free cash flow they will generate in the future. Once he arrives at their instrinsic value, he applies a margin of safety to calculate a price he thinks is reasonable.

Once he finds a company that meets these requirements, Buffett is known to purchase a significant amount of stock in them .... a focused investing approach that puts meaningful amounts of money in a few companies.


What Beginning Investors Can Learn From Warren Buffett

Let's summarize the take home advice from this profile of one of the most successful investors in the world:

Invest in what you know: It's absolutely essential that you understand the business you're investing in. Remember .... you are investing and not speculating.

Stay away from leverage: It's a bad idea to borrow money to invest in stock.

Buy outstanding businesses: You're looking for wide moat companies — companies with a durable, competitive advantage.

Always use a margin of safety: No matter how thorough your valuation of a business, there is always a chance that the future may not be in line with your predictions. Therefore, having a margin of safety in your estimate is absolutely essential.

Learn to think independently: How often have you been tempted to dive into a stock purchase based on what the "talking-heads" and so called "experts" on TV recommend? It's a lot easier to leave the thinking to the experts. But remember ... it's your money and you have the biggest stake in it. So a little effort now will reap rich returns later.

Take advantage of the irrationality of the market rather than being fearful of it: Every now and then the stock market prices outstanding businesses at attractively low prices. Buffett's philosophy, if he already owns the stock, is to buy more at this low price rather than sell (assuming, of course, that he determines that there is nothing seriously wrong with the company). It takes courage to go against the market, but that's where your ability to think independently comes in handy.

Buy for the long-term: Buffett's take on buy and hold? "Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shuts down for ten years." This long-term perspective forces you to focus on the quality and long-term economics of a business when you're evaluating companies to invest in. Buffet is famous for saying, "The best time to sell a stock is ..... never." This is just another way of saying that when you buy a stock, make sure you've done your research and approach it like you're buying a business and not trading baseball cards.

We've covered a lot of ground here. This is priceless, fundamental advice that we all can benefit from. We find it particularly useful to review this in times of market uncertainty when our fundamental approach to buying and holding stock is questioned.


Before we end, there's one valuable resource that you should make good use of ... Warren Buffett's annual letters to the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. This is Warren Buffet at his teaching best.


http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

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