ANALYSIS OF GOOD BANKING STOCKS

Dear friends upcomin bank and fin rally which stocks could go up and to what prices?
SAMP,CFIN,PABC,MBSL,SEYB,COMB,HNB..........,ect,

THIS would BE more handfull for the benifit of forum members.

seyb is predicted to shoot up to 200.where the non voting to follw the voting!!!
and samp also undervalued!!!
ntb isnt doing good this time it seems and cdb has to move up further!!!
PMB is very good because its gona go fo ranother ipo with its related company and DFCC COMB HNB are on average!!

@SAMANGODDU1
Do you have any idea of current P/E of seyb?
Based on what you say it will reach to 200?

CDB can pass 150/= in short run.
If CDB able to produced same result in Q4 as they did in Q3,

Their EPS will be 10.2 and P/E will be 95.5/10.2 = 9.4 according to the current price level.
Backing sector PE is around 21, there for it’s extremely undervalued.
(Note that, this is my personal view and can be right or wrong)

richbull wrote:@SAMANGODDU1
Do you have any idea of current P/E of seyb?
Based on what you say it will reach to 200?

Banks aren't evaluated using PE it's book value that's important generally a bank trades at around 3 times or above it's book value. so SEYB with a current book value of about 47 should trade close to 150.

Please guys wright your analysis, thought about this sector.
THIS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS
Ex: Name of the BANK Predict Price Reason
xxxx 00 under value>/PE/BV...., ect
yyyy 00 ....................

write stock name your predicted price and the reason,
so EVERY ONE CAN SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS.*(this is not for the manuplatores)*

mono wrote:

richbull wrote:@SAMANGODDU1
Do you have any idea of current P/E of seyb?
Based on what you say it will reach to 200?

Banks aren't evaluated using PE it's book value that's important generally a bank trades at around 3 times or above it's book value. so SEYB with a current book value of about 47 should trade close to 150.

Price per book value is more important in bank stock compared with others. Globally bank PBV is 3.5 and in CSE it’s 3.1. Other counters like PEG, PE, Forward PE also needs to be consider when we making a decision.

SilverHawk wrote:

mono wrote:

richbull wrote:@SAMANGODDU1
Do you have any idea of current P/E of seyb?
Based on what you say it will reach to 200?

Banks aren't evaluated using PE it's book value that's important generally a bank trades at around 3 times or above it's book value. so SEYB with a current book value of about 47 should trade close to 150.

Price per book value is more important in bank stock compared with others. Globally bank PBV is 3.5 and in CSE it’s 3.1. Other counters like PEG, PE, Forward PE also needs to be consider when we making a decision.

PBV ( Price per book value) calculate with this:

BV =ASSETS-(LIABILITIES+PREF,SHARES) /NO. OF ORDINARY SHARES ISSUED AS AT THE LAST REPORTED FIN.YEAR

PBV= Market Price/BV


What iare liabilities + to consider for this ..

All banking and finance sector shares which show increasing profits with a higher growth in quarter to quarter financials will be rated as undervalued stocks.

Shares with increasing profits and higher EPS growth would show a lower PEG ratio. While banking and finance sector P E ratio is around 21, and when the shares of this sector traded three or more times above book value all those shares which come out with increasing quarterly profits should be traded at much higher values. Some of the shares which demonstrate annual EPS growth are SEYB, SAMP, SMLL and CDB.
COMB, HNB, DFCC, CFIN, PABC and NTB could also come out with better quarterly reports.

SilverHawk wrote:CDB can pass 150/= in short run.
If CDB able to produced same result in Q4 as they did in Q3,

Their EPS will be 10.2 and P/E will be 95.5/10.2 = 9.4 according to the current price level.
Backing sector PE is around 21, there for it’s extremely undervalued.
(Note that, this is my personal view and can be right or wrong)

They produced EPS 5.31 in 3Q. But most of the income has come from other income. The regular income didn't improve much. So, it's hardly unlikely they will produce the same EPS in Q4.

Monster wrote:

SilverHawk wrote:CDB can pass 150/= in short run.
If CDB able to produced same result in Q4 as they did in Q3,

Their EPS will be 10.2 and P/E will be 95.5/10.2 = 9.4 according to the current price level.
Backing sector PE is around 21, there for it’s extremely undervalued.
(Note that, this is my personal view and can be right or wrong)

They produced EPS 5.31 in 3Q. But most of the income has come from other income. The regular income didn't improve much. So, it's hardly unlikely they will produce the same EPS in Q4.

CDB 2010/11 Q1
NP: 34,564
EPS: 0.87 and growth compared to previous quarter 7.21%

CDB 2010/11 Q2
NP: 65,497
EPS: 1.65 and growth compared to 2010 Q1 89.45%

CDB 2010/11 Q3
NP: 210,699 (include 114,975 million market to market adjustment)
EPS: 5.31 (with market to market adjustment)
EPS: 2.41 (without market to market adjustment) and growth compared to 2010 Q2 46.19%

If they able to produced same Q3 results in Q4
Annualized EPS: 7.83 + 2.41 = 10.24

SilverHawk wrote:

Monster wrote:

SilverHawk wrote:CDB can pass 150/= in short run.
If CDB able to produced same result in Q4 as they did in Q3,

Their EPS will be 10.2 and P/E will be 95.5/10.2 = 9.4 according to the current price level.
Backing sector PE is around 21, there for it’s extremely undervalued.
(Note that, this is my personal view and can be right or wrong)

They produced EPS 5.31 in 3Q. But most of the income has come from other income. The regular income didn't improve much. So, it's hardly unlikely they will produce the same EPS in Q4.

CDB 2010/11 Q1
NP: 34,564
EPS: 0.87 and growth compared to previous quarter 7.21%

CDB 2010/11 Q2
NP: 65,497
EPS: 1.65 and growth compared to 2010 Q1 89.45%

CDB 2010/11 Q3
NP: 210,699 (include 114,975 million market to market adjustment)
EPS: 5.31 (with market to market adjustment)
EPS: 2.41 (without market to market adjustment) and growth compared to 2010 Q2 46.19%

If they able to produced same Q3 results in Q4
Annualized EPS: 7.83 + 2.41 = 10.24

Good analyze. It's currently undervalued.

LFIN is currently undervalued. Last nine month EPS is 17.76
If they can produce EPS 7 in this quarter, simply it can break 440/- with PER 18. But still it's trading at 285/-.

Yes LFIN is stagnating around 285/= more than a month or so..
It had slow run from 240/= in december & early January.

Monster wrote:LFIN is currently undervalued. Last nine month EPS is 17.76
If they can produce EPS 7 in this quarter, simply it can break 440/- with PER 18. But still it's trading at 285/-.

Yes. It might start moving soon.

SilverHawk wrote:

Monster wrote:

SilverHawk wrote:CDB can pass 150/= in short run.
If CDB able to produced same result in Q4 as they did in Q3,

Their EPS will be 10.2 and P/E will be 95.5/10.2 = 9.4 according to the current price level.
Backing sector PE is around 21, there for it’s extremely undervalued.
(Note that, this is my personal view and can be right or wrong)

They produced EPS 5.31 in 3Q. But most of the income has come from other income. The regular income didn't improve much. So, it's hardly unlikely they will produce the same EPS in Q4.

CDB 2010/11 Q1
NP: 34,564
EPS: 0.87 and growth compared to previous quarter 7.21%

CDB 2010/11 Q2
NP: 65,497
EPS: 1.65 and growth compared to 2010 Q1 89.45%

CDB 2010/11 Q3
NP: 210,699 (include 114,975 million market to market adjustment)
EPS: 5.31 (with market to market adjustment)
EPS: 2.41 (without market to market adjustment) and growth compared to 2010 Q2 46.19%

If they able to produced same Q3 results in Q4
Annualized EPS: 7.83 + 2.41 = 10.24

They are showing 50 million 'other income' even without the mark to market adjustment? if it's a regular income they should list it as such and tell us what it is. that way we won't have to guess.

If you look at the cash flow statement. they do have 55 million in commissions for the last 9 months and my guess is that figure can be fairly consistently maintained. but the 78 million 'other income' for the 9 months we cannot expect being repeated because in 2009/2010 they made only 19 million in 'other income' for 9 months. There is a good chance that these are one off capital gains that cannot be repeated.

they've also put down 15 million income from doubtful debt. that is definitely a one off adjustment that value should always be negative and around 10 million all things considered.

IMHO, you cannot expect anything remotely close to this performance in the next quarter they should have at least 10 million

Yp. Good point.

8 OTHER INCOME 2008
Dividend Income nil
Fees and Commission Income 127,682,448
Profit/(Loss) from sale of Dealing Securities nil
Profit/(Loss) from Disposal of Assets 14,552,534
Other Income from Micro Finance 11,400
TOTAL 142,246,382

8 OTHER INCOME 2009/10
Dividend Income 1,023,752
Fees and Commission Income 109,434,509
Profit/(Loss) from sale of Dealing Securities (3,819,047)
Profit/(Loss) from Disposal of Assets (2,558,947)
Other Income from Micro Finance nil
TOTAL 104,080,267


2008 other income AVG per quarter: 35,561
2009 other income AVG per quarter: 20,816

2010/11 Q1 Other income: 36,718
2010/11 Q2 Other income: 46,867
2010/11 Q3 Other income: 166,370 - 114,975 = 51,395 (market to market adjustment removed)

Seem to me, they have regular other income sources. Let me know, if I miss anything.

SilverHawk wrote:Yp. Good point.

8 OTHER INCOME 2008
Dividend Income nil
Fees and Commission Income 127,682,448
Profit/(Loss) from sale of Dealing Securities nil
Profit/(Loss) from Disposal of Assets 14,552,534
Other Income from Micro Finance 11,400
TOTAL 142,246,382

8 OTHER INCOME 2009/10
Dividend Income 1,023,752
Fees and Commission Income 109,434,509
Profit/(Loss) from sale of Dealing Securities (3,819,047)
Profit/(Loss) from Disposal of Assets (2,558,947)
Other Income from Micro Finance nil
TOTAL 104,080,267


2008 other income AVG per quarter: 35,561
2009 other income AVG per quarter: 20,816

2010/11 Q1 Other income: 36,718
2010/11 Q2 Other income: 46,867
2010/11 Q3 Other income: 166,370 - 114,975 = 51,395 (market to market adjustment removed)

Seem to me, they have regular other income sources. Let me know, if I miss anything.

Yes they seem to have a steady stream of other income.

but i'd be more confident if these people can disclose where this is coming from. are they investments? if so we need to look at CDB as a bit of an investment bank.

any ways good luck...

Monster wrote:LFIN is currently undervalued. Last nine month EPS is 17.76
If they can produce EPS 7 in this quarter, simply it can break 440/- with PER 18. But still it's trading at 285/-.

LFIN started to move few weeks back, but with the announcement of bonus issue(1:1), it became stagnated again. what do you all think about that? why investors taking bonus issue negatively?

Next financial results will give a clear indication to go ahead with B & F stox.

dhamm wrote:

Monster wrote:LFIN is currently undervalued. Last nine month EPS is 17.76
If they can produce EPS 7 in this quarter, simply it can break 440/- with PER 18. But still it's trading at 285/-.

LFIN started to move few weeks back, but with the announcement of bonus issue(1:1), it became stagnated again. what do you all think about that? why investors taking bonus issue negatively?

LFIN is a share which reached Rs 330 in the past. Yes then the bonus was issued market took is negatively. Think it is amatter of time since this goes up due to their stroing financials. If they declare EPS of RS 6 even ( consistent with last quarters) this will be worth around Rs 400 +- 10 %.

It will also be important to keep an eye on CINV and LOLC also.

slstock wrote:

dhamm wrote:

Monster wrote:LFIN is currently undervalued. Last nine month EPS is 17.76
If they can produce EPS 7 in this quarter, simply it can break 440/- with PER 18. But still it's trading at 285/-.

LFIN started to move few weeks back, but with the announcement of bonus issue(1:1), it became stagnated again. what do you all think about that? why investors taking bonus issue negatively?

LFIN is a share which reached Rs 330 in the past. Yes then the bonus was issued market took is negatively. Think it is amatter of time since this goes up due to their stroing financials. If they declare EPS of RS 6 even ( consistent with last quarters) this will be worth around Rs 400 +- 10 %.

LFIN quarter to quarter results:
profit EPS
Q22010 220m 6.36
Q12010 181m 5.23
Q42009 213m 6.17
Q32009 123m 3.56
Q22009 86m 2.5
Q12009 76m 2.21
Q42008 118m 3.60
Q32008 84m 2.43
Q22008 86 2.51

EPS for 2009/10 is 500m with EPS of 14.44. The profit for two qtrs of 2010/11 is 400m with EPS 11.59.

If we assume the last qtr EPS for Dec qtr as well ( it may be more than that), the trailin EPS is 6.17+5.23+6.36+6.36 = 24.12

with PER of 15, it should trade 24.12x15= 361. But with the quarter to quarter growth shown above its worth more than that. Guys, what do you think?

PS: FYI only. Do ur own study.