CFVF Analysis

Income :
2009/10 -2,728 Mn
2010/11 - 1,716 Mn
2011/12 - 935 Mn
2012/13 - 1,768 Mn
2013/14 - 1,829 Mn
2014/15 Q1 - 577 Mn

Profit before Tax :
2009/10 - 1,164 Mn (EPS 6.38)
2010/11 - 605 Mn (EPS 9.23)
2011/12 - (310) Mn (EPS -1.69)
2012/13 - 517 Mn (EPS 4.57)
2013/14 - 398 Mn (EPS 3.13)
2014/15 Q1 - 227 Mn (EPS 2.07)
2014/15 04 months ended - 620 Mn
2014/15 Annualize - Can 620 x 3 = 1.8 Billion or atleast above 1.5 Bn.

TB's (Financial Investments) held for Trading :
2009/10 - 0
2010/11 - 8 Billion
2011/12 - 3 Billion
2012/13 - 9 Billion
2013/14 - 11.6 Billion
2014/15 Q1 - 16.3 Billion
* Note : 1st quarter increse is 4.7 Billion. It seems all above 7.6% or 8% TB rates. Currently it's about 5.6% - 6% range. Can expect massive Capital Gain.

Government Securities as at 31.03.2014 :
Treasury Bills - Market Value 9.08 Bn Vs Face Value 9.36
Treasury Bonds - Market Value 2.44 Bn Vs Face Value 2.45

Asset Growth :
2009/10 - 10 Billion
2010/11 - 11 Billion
2011/12 - 7 Billion
2012/13 - 14 Billion
2013/14 - 16 Billion
2014/15 Q1 - 20 Billion
* Note : 1st quarter increse is 4 Billion.

No of Shares :
Issued Capital - 101,250,000 Shares
Parent Company holding -84,434,227 Shares (83%)
Balance for trading - 16,815,773 Shares (17%)
Foreign Holding - 4,204,287 Shares

Net Asset Value
2009/10 - Rs.17.21 (during the year traded at max NAV x 5.81 times)
2010/11 - Rs.14.97 (during the year traded at max NAV x 4.24 times)
2011/12 - Rs.11.28 (during the year traded at max NAV x 2.59 times)
2012/13 - Rs.18.55 (NAV x 0.84 times)
2013/14 - Rs.19.24 (NAV X 1.12 times)
30.06.2014 - 21.65 (NAV x 0.98 times)
Today - NAV x 2.30 times
* Question - By 31.03.2014 Is Possible to trade NAV 24 x 5 times = Rs.120/-

Highest Share Price (This is variable with market conditions & Interest Rates) :
2009/10 -Highest Share Price Rs.100/-
2010/11 -Highest Share Price Rs.63.50
2011/12 -Highest Share Price Rs.29.30
2012/13 -Highest Share Price Rs.15.70
2013/14 -Highest Share Price Rs.21.60
2014/15 Q1 - Highest Share Price Rs.21.30
2014/15 Today 25.09.2014 - Rs.50/-

Dividend Patteren (Interim + Final) :
2009/10 - Rs.15/- (EPS 6.38)
2010/11 - Nil (EPS 9.23)
2011/12 - Rs.2/- (EPS -1.69)
2012/13 - Rs.2/- (EPS 4.57)
2013/14 - Rs.4/- (EPS 3.13)
2014/15 - Dividends on Card. I think Possible Rs.7.50 to 10/-

PE with Highest Share Price :
2009/10 - 15.67 (with the growth expected next year)
2010/11 - 6.88 (growth year)
2011/12 - (17.34)
2012/13 - 3.44
2013/14 - 6.90 (Next year growth expected with interest Rates drop)
2014/15 Q1 - Current Share Price Rs.50 / Annualize Q1 EPS 8.28 = 6.04
*Note - Analyzing the history can say, when CFVF performing well their PE is about 7 - 8 range.

Share Price forecast for 2014/15 Year end :
2014/15 04 months ended 31.07.2014 Profits - 620 Mn
Estimated Annualize Profit 2014/15 - 620 Mn x 3 = Minimum 1.5 Billion
Estimated Annualize EPS 2014/15 - 1,500,000,000 / 101,250,000 Shares = 15
Funadamentaly, Expected Share Price = EPS 15 x PER 8 = Rs.120/-

EPS


Impressive job mate.

I like your antithetical skills.

You prefer same stocks as i do.

I agree. But i prefer CFVF to fall to 45. Specially for price sustainability.

I am already in with 20,000 shares @ @ avg cost of 45. I will increase my stake to 40,000 if falls around 45, but I really doubt 45 levels.

"2013/14 - Rs.4/- (EPS 3.13)"

Dear EPS,
Please correct me if i am wrong,
the divident for 2013/2014 was 2.00 Rs

and thanks for the valuable information and analysis

Thanks EPSf for the great work

It's a good analysis
Thanks for the view

My understanding is that the bulk of cfvf earnings is from capital gains on TBs.
If that is correct the gain is from selling TBs in hand at a profit when interest rates fall.
This may not be repeated in the coming quarters unless interest rates keep falling.
It is therefore not prudent to forecast annual earnings by multiplying the 4 months results by 3. Just a word of caution .

EPS

Do you have any expert comment on Cargills ceylon valuation scnario.

CFVF ratings upgraded

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/9871411727159_.pdf

EPS wrote:

TB's (Financial Investments) held for Trading :
2009/10 - 0
2010/11 - 8 Billion
2011/12 - 3 Billion
2012/13 - 9 Billion
2013/14 - 11.6 Billion
2014/15 Q1 - 16.3 Billion]
* Note : 1st quarter increse is 4.7 Billion. It seems all above 7.6% or 8% TB rates. Currently it's about 5.6% - 6% range. Can expect massive Capital Gain.

Government Securities as at 31.03.2014 :
Treasury Bills - Market Value 9.08 Bn Vs Face Value 9.36
Treasury Bonds - Market Value 2.44 Bn Vs Face Value 2.45

Asset Growth :
2009/10 - 10 Billion
2010/11 - 11 Billion
2011/12 - 7 Billion
2012/13 - 14 Billion
2013/14 - 16 Billion
2014/15 Q1 - 20 Billion
* Note : 1st quarter increse is 4 Billion.


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How do u say that they have holding 16.3 Billion valued TB's..?
Do u have any source...?

As per 31.03.2014 AR....
Government Securities as at 31.03.2014 :
Treasury Bills - Market Value 9.08 Bn Vs Face Value 9.36
Treasury Bonds - Market Value 2.44 Bn Vs Face Value 2.45

Balnce 4 increased in last quarter

CFVF will pass Rs. 70 with the quarterly results which is due in a months time.

Their ratings also been upgraded by Lanka ratings.

Code:

dineshfernando wrote:CFVF will pass Rs. 70 with the quarterly results which is due in  a months time.

Their ratings also been upgraded by Lanka ratings.

Yes. Its a good sign for their growth.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/2031411727258_698.pdf

This is to inform you that First Capital Holdings PLC's long and short term corporate credit ratings has been upgraded to "A- and P2" from "BBB+ and P2" by Lanka Rating Agency Limited

Now it seems another collection going on. Already up by 5% & hit 51.80. Keep eye. My next barrier Rs.70/- by 31.10.2014. Question is this Possible? will see.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t37052-cfvfn0000?highlight=cfvf

Another good day for mainly CFVF & also CSEC, ESL.
All three shares under massive massive Bull run now.
What happened in 2009/10. With the drop of the Interest rates / TB rates in 2010, CFVF earned EPS 9.23 & share has reached maximum of Rs.100/- with PE ratio of 10 & NAV x 6 times.
Can't this happen again in 2014. Now Rates are droping massively.
CSE is trading with base on future earnings. CFVF possible to report good profits in coming quarters.
Some will argue. Yes this is One of case with drop of the rates.
This is the trend of this share.
Cant' help. Some times in 2014 also at the maximum point CFVF will trade at PE ratio of 15.
Who know the value.
If CFVF gives 10 EPS, Share price will be = 10 x 10 or 10 x 12 or some times 10 x15.
If 15 EPS , can't be 15 x 15.
But, can nor predict. Too early now.
Market players need some Oxygen for play with share.
Now they have story on Interest rates + TB rates. They are playing with that story.

Who bought esl on friday,dividend pluse a good gain.

ESL price shold alwais stood above CFVF, These two shares have long way to go. Those who willing to go can still get in to the buss.

CFVF  Present price is  the highest price after201) July according to CSE statistics

NAV is Rs 21/=

Most of share holders purchase this stock between rs 18 and 20
they can sell with god profit margin at any time now.

Hoe can we expect this will go up further ?

I think basis of technical analysis is rational behavior of economic man in a free market

I strongly think tomorrow ESL will break Rs.62/- or above and CFVF will touch 60/- mark. Also CSEC 42.50.

Yes. defa ESL will lead. Some times at the end of rally ESL can be top, then CFVF & CSEC.

Always highest return % will give by CSEC.

Yes. most of people will think last month 20 & now 60 with 3 times up & overheated. defa they will take their gain & will exit.
But current market conditions, CFVF having big oxygen cylinder for running.

Still not start their next rally...???

cse.see (original) wrote:Still not start their next rally...???

I think for the next rally another 1 week at least.