What you all think about CINV now?

CINV is part of Carsons group and is a star performer too. It engages in investment holding and portfolio management. The Company has investments in sectors such as beverage, food and tobacco, hotels and travel, telecommunications, power and energy, and healthcare,etc.. The investment portfolio of the Company is managed by Guardian Fund Management Limited.

Earnings;
2008 - Rs.257 mn
2009 - Rs.240 mn
2010 - Rs.989 mn
PAT of Rs.1,085 mn for the half year ended 30 September, 2010, a growth of Rs.153% from the comparative figure of Rs. 429 mn reported for the same period last year

top five investments as of 2010 annual report;
Mkt Value % of
Company Name s. mn Portfolio
1 John Keells Holdings 502 20%
2 Aitken Spence 364 15%
3 Commercial Bank 291 12%
4 Hatton Nation Bank 282 11%
5 AHUN 193 08%

Six months ended September 30, 2010 we see an EPS of 56.17 and qtr ended EPS of 39.72..from last qtr reports..
Looking at the stockastics, it can go down a little and its good to enter around 135-137 it seems..
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ticker=CINV:SL

How about the financial performance of this, can anyone analyse?
Do u all see this as an emrging counter?

Apparently it's portfolio has some of the best Blue Chips. If we assume ASI and in particularly MPI will perform consitently in next few years, yes this will be a star performer. I think they have collected those shares at very low prices before early 2010 when the market was stagnating.

What to say men,

BUKI,JKH,banking shares not moving.

Hi smallville
It is good to see you in this forum....

It annualized EPS (after split) is Rs.22 and Investment sector PER is 22.8 times. Therefore the value would be (22 X 22. is Rs.500. However PER multiples of Investment sector is high, since some company in this sector has high PER (Eg.GREG), that is reason the sector PER reported 22.8 times. However even if you discounts PER by 50% to get fair adjustment the CINV value would be (22 X 11.4) Rs. 250. Therefore there is high chances the price will get move up.

Further it has unique feature in its Investment portfolio

CINV total portfolio is Rs. 7.2 Bn including investment in Sri Lanka Fund (USD fund targeting foreign investor) amounts Rs.151Mn and the carrying value of investment Rs.3.1Bn in associate company Rubber Investment Trust Company, which has a stake of 20% in BUKI. (In Financial statement investment in associate is been reported in Carrying Value as per SLAS, However the fair value of investment is Rs.9.8Bn that reflects BUKI market value).Further CINV has short term investment in different sectors amounts to Rs.733Mn.

seyon wrote:
Hi smallville
It is good to see you in this forum....

It annualized EPS (after split) is Rs.22 and Investment sector PER is 22.8 times. Therefore the value would be (22 X 22. is Rs.500. However PER multiples of Investment sector is high, since some company in this sector has high PER (Eg.GREG), that is reason the sector PER reported 22.8 times. However even if you discounts PER by 50% to get fair adjustment the CINV value would be (22 X 11.4) Rs. 250. Therefore there is high chances the price will get move up.

Further it has unique feature in its Investment portfolio

CINV total portfolio is Rs. 7.2 Bn including investment in Sri Lanka Fund (USD fund targeting foreign investor) amounts Rs.151Mn and the carrying value of investment Rs.3.1Bn in associate company Rubber Investment Trust Company, which has a stake of 20% in BUKI. (In Financial statement investment in associate is been reported in Carrying Value as per SLAS, However the fair value of investment is Rs.9.8Bn that reflects BUKI market value).Further CINV has short term investment in different sectors amounts to Rs.733Mn.

Seyon ,

Appreciate if you can explain why we use sector PER finally to calculate the share price.. As you said above correctly in some sectors , PER value is very high , but best performing companies maintain low PER if I am not mistaken. Please correct me if I am wrong ..

Please reply to me on the following thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t388-why-sector-per-used-to-calculate-the-market-price

hey
CINV,GUAR top investment is BUKI (through RITL)

RITL is the top shareholder of BUKI (20.04%)

RITL
GUAR - 51%
CINV -49%

WOwwWW,

RITL had 2Mn BUKI shares before division. Price was around Rs8000. After adjusting to BUKI market price RITL has 16bn investments in BUKI

CINV - 8bN
GUAR - 8Bn

BUKI, CINV, GUAR, all Banking and Finance shares, JKH, always remain as strong shares, that is true, they progress slowly. There is no obvious rapid price movement within days, actually all banking and finance shares and those mentioned shares are moving very slowly. Medium term prospects are good and the corporate results are consistent with their progress. Thanks smallville you have got some financially strong shares with better future earnings. Short term, these shares are not attractive, it takes a long period of time to display a real progress based on progressive financial reports.

just need to ask a real stupid question ..
How do u guys get the sector wise PER values ? As per the [url=CSE]http://www.cse.lk/sectors/sectorSummary.htm[/url] the investment sector PER is 28.10. I was referring there all the time. Please verify.

BullionStock wrote:

seyon wrote:

Seyon ,

Appreciate if you can explain why we use sector PER finally to calculate the share price.. As you said above correctly in some sectors , PER value is very high , but best performing companies maintain low PER if I am not mistaken. Please correct me if I am wrong ..

Please reply to me on the following thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t388-why-sector-per-used-to-calculate-the-market-pHirice

Hi BullionStock

For Stock picking PER is an ideal tool to start After identifying companies which trade at low multiples and comparing with its sectors those shares may present an optimal investment opportunity. Now you would take the example CINV is trading in PE multiples of 7 times while GREG in the same sector trading at 75 times ( since the reason may be GREG is Speculative) . That is reason sector PE reflects 29 times as an average. Therefore If u value the share with sector PE it wont reflect the fair value...then you have to discount it to reflect the fair value.... CINV and GUAR are lowest PER in the sectors... therefore still there is chance the price to go up.....

You would compare the SECTOR PER and Market PER if ur selected companies are lowest PE multiples there is high chance the price to move up. provided that the companies should have growth and potential in the industry... since we should see the future growth rather than the past records...

Happy Trading

seyon,

"PE of a investment trust" don't have any meaning bcs investment trust doesn't have a core business. Income is very random

"PE of a investment trust"
a topic belongs to history ........

upuldi wrote:just need to ask a real stupid question ..
How do u guys get the sector wise PER values ? As per the [url=CSE]http://www.cse.lk/sectors/sectorSummary.htm[/url] the investment sector PER is 28.10. I was referring there all the time. Please verify.

upuldi,

the given url doesnot work.

appreciate if you can verify the link again. Thanks

Hi

this is the link..

http://www.cse.lk/sectors/sectorSummary.htm

please verify.. Thank you...

yep

thanks mate . It works

I will do my own study now on some target valuations..

seyon wrote:
Hi smallville
It is good to see you in this forum....

It annualized EPS (after split) is Rs.22 and Investment sector PER is 22.8 times. Therefore the value would be (22 X 22. is Rs.500. However PER multiples of Investment sector is high, since some company in this sector has high PER (Eg.GREG), that is reason the sector PER reported 22.8 times. However even if you discounts PER by 50% to get fair adjustment the CINV value would be (22 X 11.4) Rs. 250. Therefore there is high chances the price will get move up.

Further it has unique feature in its Investment portfolio

CINV total portfolio is Rs. 7.2 Bn including investment in Sri Lanka Fund (USD fund targeting foreign investor) amounts Rs.151Mn and the carrying value of investment Rs.3.1Bn in associate company Rubber Investment Trust Company, which has a stake of 20% in BUKI. (In Financial statement investment in associate is been reported in Carrying Value as per SLAS, However the fair value of investment is Rs.9.8Bn that reflects BUKI market value).Further CINV has short term investment in different sectors amounts to Rs.733Mn.

You cant value an investment fund using PER, you need to value it using NAV. I havent looked at the share in much detail but if you gonna value the share I would recommend calculating the market value of its portfolio.

Hasi84,

Appreciate if you could lay down some figures if u have time to go thru this.. I was even feeling that its too much valued goin on normal analysis..

Seyon,
If you can even try out Hasi's method it would be wonderful..

Thanks Guys..

smallville wrote:Hasi84,

Appreciate if you could lay down some figures if u have time to go thru this.. I was even feeling that its too much valued goin on normal analysis..

Seyon,
If you can even try out Hasi's method it would be wonderful..

Thanks Guys..

Yes true Smallville

As per 30th September financial the book value was Rs.77 and the Market value was Rs.145... I think that as per December quarter and coming quarters the mkt value would in the range of Rs.180 -200 .... As per my this would be solid investment.....

Happy Trading

Seyon,

Tru enuf, I just bought some more today even.. but I'm more concerned abt the investment portfolio they have. .those are blue chips and top companies they've invested in..
Do us a small favour.. just if u can elaborate the cost of investment VS market value of it now would be enuf to justify the investment in CINV..
I had a look at their last financial report which made me this a choice.. hope the're gonna continue it ;-)
Pls update us if u can spare some time..

Thanks.

CINV and LCEY continue to remain as a value investment in the portfolio.

hi seyon
good to see you in this forum
i have collected cinv guar cars buki fair amount
thanks for your advice

nal 78 wrote:hi seyon
good to see you in this forum
i have collected cinv guar cars buki fair amount
thanks for your advice

Thanks nal 78... Those will really help you to build up a strong portfolio. In coming quarters. you would see attractive results from these companies....

Happy Trading

Next three to six months CSE would gradually settle in to financially strong shares when they release corporate earnings.