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Being realistic with regard to current market and elections

4 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Seeitcallit


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Ok, I've been a silent reader of the forum over sometime now and kept my mouth shut through many threads that I don't agree with, but I think it's time to break that silence.

I notice a lot of contributors, even some of the more professional ones keep talking about a big rally starring Monday. Well as markets go anything can happen. However my experience with CSE and also other financial markets I have traded is that in times of uncertainty, and especially after a long bull run is that we are going to see a period of marker either stagnating or giving up a portion of it's recent gains.

I am not talking a 33pct retrace, but feel ASPI pull back to the low 7000s or even slightly below is on the cards.

Granted a few counters might continue to buck the trend, but in general a 1.5 month correction period.

So how does one trade into it?

1) I would take profit or stop my self out of stocks with little fundamentals behind them, as these would be the most likely to see significant pull backs.
2) I would remain in cash or near cash instruments
3) keep an eye open for good stocks (low pe, nbv) that might over correct.
4) would keep an eye out for signs I would consider worrying - election violence, dirty politics ect

RPPA


Expert
Expert

Seeitcallit wrote:Ok, I've been a silent reader of the forum over sometime now and kept my mouth shut through many threads that I don't agree with, but I think it's time to break that silence.

I notice a lot of contributors, even some of the more professional ones keep talking about a big rally starring Monday. Well as markets go anything can happen. However my experience with CSE and also other financial markets I have traded is that in times of uncertainty, and especially after a long bull run is that we are going to see a period of marker either stagnating or giving up a portion of it's recent gains.

I am not talking a 33pct retrace, but feel ASPI pull back to the low 7000s or even slightly below is on the cards.

Granted a few counters might continue to buck the trend, but in general a 1.5 month correction period.

So how does one trade into it?

1) I would take profit or stop my self out of stocks with little fundamentals behind them, as these would be the most likely to see significant pull backs.
2) I would remain in cash or near cash instruments
3) keep an eye open for good stocks (low pe, nbv) that might over correct.
4) would keep an eye out for signs I would consider worrying - election violence, dirty politics ect


I feel a reaction is fine. But i feel you are over reacting. i can't see ASI coming down to 7000 in this year. No way.

i think you need to study this game bit more in detail. Very Happy



Last edited by RPPA on Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:48 am; edited 1 time in total

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Experience and luck are the 2 most critical factors to be successful in the CSE. Seeitcallit, I like your balance approach. I sure next few weeks will be critical!

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

It is true that no one can say the strength & market trend starting from tomorrow. Logically, I do not see solid facts ( apart from behavioural aspects which is beyond control ) causing further unusual dipping of trading.

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