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One million monkeys speculate on the stock market. They buy and sell stocks like crazy and, of course, completely at random. What happens? After one week, about half of the monkeys will have made a profit and the other half a loss. The ones that made a profit can stay; the ones that made a loss you send home. In the second week, one half of the monkeys will still be riding high, while others half will have made a loss and are sent home. And so on. After ten weeks, about 1000 monkeys will be left- those who have always invested their money well. After twenty weeks, just one monkey will remain- this one always, without fail, chose the right stocks and is now a billionaire, Let's call him the success monkey.
How does this media react? They will pounce on this animal to understand its "Success principles". And they will find some; perhaps the monkey eats more bananas than the others. Perhaps he sits in another corner of the cage. Or, maybe he swings headlong through the branches, or he takes long, reflective pauses while grooming. He must have some recipe for success. right ? How else could he perform so brilliantly? Spot -on for twenty weeks- and that from a simple monkey? Impossible!
The monkey story illustrates the outcome bias.. we tend to evaluate decisions based on the results than on the decision process. this fallacy is also knows as historian error.
Conclusion; Never judge a decision purely bu its results, especially when randomness or "external factors" play a role. A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa. So rather than tearing your hair our about a wrong decision, or applauding yourself for one that may have only coincidentally led to success, remember why you chose what you did. Were your reasons rational and understandable? The you would do well to stick with that method, even if you didn't strike a lucky last time.
-Source: The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
How does this media react? They will pounce on this animal to understand its "Success principles". And they will find some; perhaps the monkey eats more bananas than the others. Perhaps he sits in another corner of the cage. Or, maybe he swings headlong through the branches, or he takes long, reflective pauses while grooming. He must have some recipe for success. right ? How else could he perform so brilliantly? Spot -on for twenty weeks- and that from a simple monkey? Impossible!
The monkey story illustrates the outcome bias.. we tend to evaluate decisions based on the results than on the decision process. this fallacy is also knows as historian error.
Conclusion; Never judge a decision purely bu its results, especially when randomness or "external factors" play a role. A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa. So rather than tearing your hair our about a wrong decision, or applauding yourself for one that may have only coincidentally led to success, remember why you chose what you did. Were your reasons rational and understandable? The you would do well to stick with that method, even if you didn't strike a lucky last time.
-Source: The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
