CFVF, JINS, CSEC ; At last!

At last above 3 showing some up movement today. But I was so sick of waiting, disposed all of them with a thin margin.

poor hunter yu had to wait bit more.

To me this sort of rally along with what we have seen on CLND and ALLI is clear indication that the market is going to have a dramatic sell off very soon.

Now ALLI isn't a bad stock but where on earth does a share go up 60% in a day except Bangladesh and Colombo? (oops I forgot about LinkedIn but notice how major financial houses are seriously worried about the LinkedIn behaviour?, over here everyone is cheering)

The fact that stocks jump up 50%, 20% or even 10% in a day is clear indication that only retailers are in the market. Ok maybe not just retailers the EPF is playing too but that's again our money and some of their recent investment decisions are no different from what an average office assistant or chauffer might make.

tubal wrote:To me this sort of rally along with what we have seen on CLND and ALLI is clear indication that the market is going to have a dramatic sell off very soon.

Now ALLI isn't a bad stock but where on earth does a share go up 60% in a day except Bangladesh and Colombo? (oops I forgot about LinkedIn but notice how major financial houses are seriously worried about the LinkedIn behaviour?, over here everyone is cheering)

The fact that stocks jump up 50%, 20% or even 10% in a day is clear indication that only retailers are in the market. Ok maybe not just retailers the EPF is playing too but that's again our money and some of their recent investment decisions are no different from what an average office assistant or chauffer might make.

Hi Tubal,
I have been following what you have been saying (in general during the last two months)and it seems to sort of make sense, though at times seems a bit exaggerated ( maybe to drive the point home). Your concern for the less informed, at the cost of your popularity is much appreciated.

But what do we do with our pf's in the meantime ? obviously don't buy, and sell what has given you a decent return. But what about the majority of the pf, all the bluechips that are stagnating ? do we just sit tight and wait, or sell at modest loss (to pick up at lower) ? The sum total of your posts indicate that it would be a long and weary Bear up ahead.

Am I reading you right ?

I am an investor, not a trader and my pf is 95% blue chip. I am studying the market to the best of my abilities and still don't have the confidence to trade short term.

Backstage wrote:

tubal wrote:To me this sort of rally along with what we have seen on CLND and ALLI is clear indication that the market is going to have a dramatic sell off very soon.

Now ALLI isn't a bad stock but where on earth does a share go up 60% in a day except Bangladesh and Colombo? (oops I forgot about LinkedIn but notice how major financial houses are seriously worried about the LinkedIn behaviour?, over here everyone is cheering)

The fact that stocks jump up 50%, 20% or even 10% in a day is clear indication that only retailers are in the market. Ok maybe not just retailers the EPF is playing too but that's again our money and some of their recent investment decisions are no different from what an average office assistant or chauffer might make.

Hi Tubal,
I have been following what you have been saying (in general during the last two months)and it seems to sort of make sense, though at times seems a bit exaggerated ( maybe to drive the point home). Your concern for the less informed, at the cost of your popularity is much appreciated.

But what do we do with our pf's in the meantime ? obviously don't buy, and sell what has given you a decent return. But what about the majority of the pf, all the bluechips that are stagnating ? do we just sit tight and wait, or sell at modest loss (to pick up at lower) ? The sum total of your posts indicate that it would be a long and weary Bear up ahead.

Am I reading you right ?

I am an investor, not a trader and my pf is 95% blue chip. I am studying the market to the best of my abilities and still don't have the confidence to trade short term.

Well you are reading me mostly right. I do see that it's going to be a long and weary bear market. Pity. It could have been quickly done and over with like a visit to the dentist if the security leaks commision hadn't stepped in.

If you are buying to hold as a really long term investment, it's actually ok to buy in a bear market. Just don't commit all your money at once but little buy little. What ever said and done the long term direction of equity markets is definitely up. You might want to hide the share market page of the newspapers from your spouse though :-)

As for short term trading, this is what I do. However I don't buy shares like CLND which go up for no apparent reason. That means my profits are really small, and with many trades I actually lose money. However I have not reported a net loss for any month since the bear started running in October. The key is to recognize that you made a mistake and cut your losses before they balloon.

tubal wrote:To me this sort of rally along with what we have seen on CLND and ALLI is clear indication that the market is going to have a dramatic sell off very soon.

Now ALLI isn't a bad stock but where on earth does a share go up 60% in a day except Bangladesh and Colombo? (oops I forgot about LinkedIn but notice how major financial houses are seriously worried about the LinkedIn behaviour?, over here everyone is cheering)

The fact that stocks jump up 50%, 20% or even 10% in a day is clear indication that only retailers are in the market. Ok maybe not just retailers the EPF is playing too but that's again our money and some of their recent investment decisions are no different from what an average office assistant or chauffer might make.

these type of rallies can be seen in any market.in the short run speculations are always there in any markets . it is not just fundementals run the market in short run. speculation trading is always there under the free market conditions.
for example, after earthquake in Japan according to theory yen has to depreciate immidiately but the opposite happens just after the earthquake because of speculation created by some hedge funds.

econ wrote:

tubal wrote:To me this sort of rally along with what we have seen on CLND and ALLI is clear indication that the market is going to have a dramatic sell off very soon.

Now ALLI isn't a bad stock but where on earth does a share go up 60% in a day except Bangladesh and Colombo? (oops I forgot about LinkedIn but notice how major financial houses are seriously worried about the LinkedIn behaviour?, over here everyone is cheering)

The fact that stocks jump up 50%, 20% or even 10% in a day is clear indication that only retailers are in the market. Ok maybe not just retailers the EPF is playing too but that's again our money and some of their recent investment decisions are no different from what an average office assistant or chauffer might make.

these type of rallies can be seen in any market.in the short run speculations are always there in any markets . it is not just fundementals run the market in short run. speculation trading is always there under the free market conditions.
for example, after earthquake in Japan according to theory yen has to depreciate immidiately but the opposite happens just after the earthquake because of speculation created by some hedge funds.

You have me cracked up!

Attention newcomers: to get the correct EPS, add earnings for the most recently available 4 quarters, deduct one off and extra ordinary items. Divide by the number of outstanding shares.

dear members there is no such thing called extra ordinary items according to companies act no 7 of 2007.

Nigel.Machado wrote:dear members there is no such thing called extra ordinary items according to companies act no 7 of 2007.

Don't take it so literally then! Extra ordinary items as in profit that is not directly attributable to whatever product or service that the company is selling. Such as mark to market adjustments, revalution of land and property, disposal of shares, tax reversals, write downs, write offs, write backs, etc, etc.

if you ask me it's pointless bitching about this. We should learn to ride the wave.

But many companies have done really well. even excluding one off gains. So the future of the index is good. I just want to see CB figures for inflation in may. They claim that inflation will top out in april, i hope that is true

Nigel.Machado wrote:dear members there is no such thing called extra ordinary items according to companies act no 7 of 2007.

welcome to forum friend

*Occasionally, a company will encounter an item that is so extraordinary that it merits special display on the income statement. Under IAS 8, extraordinary items are:
-Income or expenses that arise from events or transactions that are clearly distinct from the ordinary activities of the enterprise and therefore are not expected to recur frequently or regularly

*Extraordinary items are events and transactions that are distinguished by their unusual nature and by the infrequency of their occurrence. Thus, both of the following criteria should be met to classify an event or transaction as an extraordinary item
-a.Unusual nature—the underlying event or transaction should possess a high degree of abnormality and be of a type clearly unrelated to, or only incidentally related to, the ordinary and typical activities of the entity, taking into account the environment in which the entity operates.

-b.Infrequency of occurrence—the underlying event or transaction should be of a type that would not reasonably be expected to recur in the foreseeable future, taking into account the environment in which the entity operates.

examples
*No items may be presented in the income statement as extraordinary items. (IAS 1.87) Extraordinary items are both unusual (abnormal) and infrequent, for example, unexpected natural disaster, expropriation, prohibitions under new regulations,temporary tax benefits, and irregular lawsuits.

other income is not a extra ordinary item..it derives in ordinary course of action.as new act no classification of extraordinary items,if so will be write off against income statement.

Nigel.Machado wrote:dear members there is no such thing called extra ordinary items according to companies act no 7 of 2007.

are you the same nigel who was there at investnow.lk

If so nice too see you again, or else just plain nice to see you.

"It could have been quickly done and over with like a visit to the dentist if the security leaks commission hadn't stepped in."

Do you mean price bands ?

@mono
the forum wasn't the same without your sarcastic comments. Welcome back. I am not bitching cause I couldn't ride the wave. I could get in and get out in time. I am bitching because these out of control moves are killing the market.

@backstage
I am talking about credit clearing. If they had gone ahead with it, there would have been a short sharp drop and it would have been over and done with.

tubal wrote:I am bitching because these out of control moves are killing the market.

there is some truth to that. but what to do?

in the long run these things will matter very little as the market will settle on fundamentals.

@tubal

If credit clearance is the main culprit, and since (as I understand) most of it has been cleared in Jan and March, also margin trading facilities are being set up to get around the issue, it is probably a small sloth bear and not a great big grizzly that's gonna hibernate at the CSE right ?

The idea I am getting from the other discussions about the market trend is, that its going to be a bull, but not a raging one.

Backstage wrote:@tubal

If credit clearance is the main culprit, and since (as I understand) most of it has been cleared in Jan and March, also margin trading facilities are being set up to get around the issue, it is probably a small sloth bear and not a great big grizzly that's gonna hibernate at the CSE right ?

The idea I am getting from the other discussions about the market trend is, that its going to be a bull, but not a raging one.

There is plenty of discussion about whether or not credit clearence is the issue. Please search the forums and you will come across them. My view is that credit clearence is not what's causing the bear market. However the SEC had stuck to the task, there would have been a sell off and a quick end.